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珍酒李渡(06979):报表出清,大珍寻机
CMS· 2025-08-23 12:11
报表出清,大珍寻机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报,25H1 公司收入/净利润/经调整净利润分别为 25.0 亿元 /5.7 亿元/6.1 亿元,同比-39.6%/-23.5%/-39.8%。25H1 公司报表侧开始出清, 珍酒严控销售节奏维护渠道健康,李渡依托婚宴、升学宴等消费场景逆周期对 冲,毛利率保持稳定,费用短期刚性但后续有望削减,利润率侧预计继续保持。 展望 25H2,大珍新品推出与联盟体形式有望贡献重要增量,后续重点关注公司 价格管理能力,若整体得当,大珍有望成为填补珍 15、珍 30 价格带的重要利 器。考虑到公司面临外部压力,我们下调 25-27 年经调整净利润至 14.1 亿元、 15.4 亿元、18.8 亿元,对应 25 年 21.8 倍 PE,维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐(维持) 目标估值:NA 当前股价:9.86 港元 基础数据 | 总股本(百万股) | 3389 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(百万股) | 3389 | | 总市值(十亿元) | 33.4 | | 流通市值(十亿元) | 33.4 | | 每股净资产(MRQ) | 4.1 | | R ...
珍酒李渡(06979.HK):周期筑底 大珍破局
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 19:35
Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a new strategic product "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 RMB, targeting the market for high-quality liquor priced around 2000 RMB, responding to rational consumption trends [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The new product features a five-year base liquor and is complemented by over 20 years of aged liquor for flavoring, emphasizing its rarity and quality [1] - The product's packaging design is minimalist, enhancing its high-end recognition, and aims to penetrate market demand through its quality-price ratio [1] - The company aims to build a strong trust chain among manufacturers, merchants, and consumers, focusing on creating a market-impacting phenomenon with this product [1] Group 2: Innovative Business Model - The "Wanshang Alliance" model ensures transparent pricing at the terminal level, with strict channel control by the manufacturer to secure high channel profits [2] - The company employs a four-tier supervision mechanism involving sales personnel, alliance merchants, auditors, and headquarters, which has already led to the expulsion of over 20 non-compliant merchants [2] - The company anticipates reaching 5,000 to 8,000 signed merchants by 2026, with current signed merchants at 2,116, and sees potential for further client conversion from competitors [2] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Outlook - The company plans to adjust its marketing strategy in 2025, focusing on inventory clearance, with stable channel order in key provinces like Guizhou, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong [3] - The company expects sales volume recovery in the future as the market stabilizes, particularly for its existing products [3] - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth potential driven by the new product [3]
珍酒李渡(06979):周期筑底,大珍破局
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-21 12:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is launching a new strategic product, "Da Zhen," priced at 888 RMB, which aims to meet rational consumption demands with high quality and competitive pricing [12][13] - The "Wan Shang Alliance" model is expected to innovate the channel structure, ensuring transparent pricing and high channel profits, which could lead to significant market impact [16][25] - The company anticipates a recovery in sales as inventory is cleared, particularly in key provinces where channel order remains stable [33] Summary by Sections New Product Launch - The new product "Da Zhen" is designed to appeal to consumers seeking high quality at a reasonable price, featuring a five-year base liquor and over 20 years of aged liquor for flavor enhancement [13][12] - The product's packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures have been upgraded to enhance its market appeal and consumer trust [13][14] Channel Innovation - The "Wan Shang Alliance" model focuses on low entry barriers and high returns, promoting a trust chain among manufacturers, merchants, and consumers [16][25] - The model includes strict price control and a four-tier supervision mechanism to maintain channel order and profitability [20][26] Sales Recovery - The company is adjusting its marketing strategy to focus on inventory clearance, with expectations for early recovery in sales as market conditions improve [33][35] - Key provinces like Guizhou, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong are expected to maintain stable channel orders, with specific products positioned for growth in banquet scenarios [33] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB respectively, reflecting optimism about the new product's contribution [44][49] - The report indicates that the company's PE ratios are competitive compared to peers, suggesting potential for growth as market conditions stabilize [47][50]
珍酒李渡(6979.HK):市场纾困、业绩出清 为未来蓄势
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-10 03:21
Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing sales pressure, with significant short-term performance decline for Zhenjiu and Lidu, as they focus on market relief and inventory control [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu and Lidu expect revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in liquor consumption is attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policy impacts, particularly affecting business banquets, social gatherings, and gift-giving scenarios [1] - The high-end product segment, particularly Zhen30 and above, is impacted by downward price adjustments in premium liquor, leading to a focus on volume control and price stabilization [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen, in June 2025, targeting a market gap between Zhen15 and Zhen30, with positive sales progress expected [2] - The chairman is actively promoting the brand through personal marketing efforts on social media platforms [2] - The company aims to enhance its existing flagship products' competitive edge through refined sales strategies and increased market penetration [2] Group 4: Product Expansion - A high-end beer brand named "Niushi" is set to launch on August 8, with the first product priced at 88 yuan per 375ml aluminum bottle [2] - The company is focusing on emerging consumer trends and plans to develop products tailored for specific occasions like birthdays and weddings [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a rare listed entity in the liquor sector, with strong operational momentum and significant future growth potential [2] - Zhenjiu is positioned in the second tier of the liquor market, with opportunities to leverage brand and channel advantages in a concentrated market [2] - Lidu is seen as a rising star in the high-end segment, with innovative marketing strategies enhancing its market presence [2]
珍酒李渡(06979.HK):下行期攻坚克难 多举措积极应对
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-08 11:19
Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to high base effects, cyclical downturns, and impacts from Q2 market conditions [1] Revenue Summary - The company expects revenue for H1 2025 to be between 2.4 to 2.55 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - All sub-brands are estimated to face pressure, with the main brand, Zhenjiu, experiencing a decline consistent with the overall trend, while Lidu shows limited decline [1] Profit Summary - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is between 570 to 580 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23% to 24% [1] - The non-IFRS net profit is expected to be between 610 to 620 million RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to remain stable at 24% to 25% [1] Market Strategy - The company is actively controlling shipment rhythms to help clear channels, with stable sales shares for key products in core markets [1] - The company is focusing on nurturing brand recognition and has positive progress in new product launches, which are expected to contribute to revenue in H2 2025 [1] Industry Context - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the company adapting its strategy to address the pressures from declining business consumption and price reductions in premium liquor [1] - The company is shifting its customer base towards new quality-driven enterprises and is introducing high-quality products at competitive price points [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential recovery in revenue growth in H2 2025, following a concentrated clearing and product updates in 2025 [2] - The non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 1.23 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.68 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a more cautious outlook [2]
珍酒李渡(06979):25H1业绩预告点评:下行期攻坚克难,多举措积极应对
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-07 04:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is facing significant revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with expected revenue decline of 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit decline of 23% to 24% [7] - Despite the challenges, the company is actively managing its operations, maintaining a stable profit margin of 24% to 25% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong cost and expense control capabilities [7] - The company is focusing on clearing inventory and optimizing its distribution channels, with expectations for a more controlled revenue decline in the second half of 2025 as market conditions improve [7] - The company is adapting to industry pressures by shifting its customer base and product offerings, including the introduction of new products at competitive price points [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 7,060 million in 2023, with a slight increase to 7,067 million in 2024, followed by a significant drop to 5,026 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2,327 million, decreasing to 1,324 million in 2024, and further to 1,158 million in 2025 [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 1,623 million in 2023, with a decline to 1,676 million in 2024, and a drop to 1,233 million in 2025 [1] - The report adjusts the non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 to 12.3 billion, 13.7 billion, and 16.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 7.38 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 22,749.82 million HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.77 for the current price and latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.69 [1] - The company’s book value per share is 4.12, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.84% [6]
珍酒李渡(06979):报表释放压力,公司积极应对
HTSC· 2025-08-06 13:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 23% to 24% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to external pressures by adjusting its payment and delivery schedules, focusing on channel health, and launching strategic flagship products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company’s brand possesses unique characteristics and a diversified marketing system, which may support regional and capacity expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 24.0 to 25.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is around 5.7 to 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 23% to 24% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be approximately 6.1 to 6.2 billion RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new strategic flagship products, including "珍 10" and "大珍·珍酒," to capture market share in both mid-range and high-end segments [3]. - Efforts are being made to solidify the competitive position of existing flagship products and enhance penetration in core markets [3]. - The company aims to tap into emerging consumer trends and scenarios, such as products for birthdays and weddings [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27% across the board, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.38, and 0.44 RMB for the respective years [4][12]. - The target price is set at 8.04 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable net profit margin despite the adjustments, reflecting confidence in its core business profitability [12].
珍酒李渡“酒二代”吴其融接棒执行董事 数字化转型能否破局增长瓶颈?
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 05:37
Core Viewpoint - The appointment of 28-year-old Wu Qirong as the youngest executive director of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979.HK) signals both family succession and strategic transformation within the company [2][3]. Company Overview - Wu Qirong, son of Chairman Wu Xiangdong, has a background in digital marketing and has been involved in various roles within the company since graduating from the University of Birmingham in 2019 [2]. - The company has faced significant challenges, with 2024 revenue reported at 7.067 billion yuan, showing nearly zero growth, and net profit plummeting by 43.1% to 1.324 billion yuan [2][3]. Market Challenges - Zhenjiu Lidu's core products are experiencing severe price declines, with the high-end "Zhen 30" retail price dropping over 60% from the suggested price, and the mid-range "Zhen 15" only achieving 40% of its suggested price [3]. - The company is struggling to compete with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye while facing inventory buildup and shrinking channel profits [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Wu Qirong's leadership is seen as a potential turning point, leveraging his dual background in computer science and business management to align with the industry's trend towards digitalization and youth engagement [3]. - The company needs to activate the differentiated advantages of its sub-brands and innovate in brand image and product offerings to meet new consumer demands [3]. Governance and Management Issues - The governance dynamics between family-owned enterprises and professional managers, along with the contrast between high executive salaries and declining performance, will test Wu Qirong's management acumen [4].