来源：智通财经网 消息面上，白酒行业深度调整下，近日市场有传闻称，贵州茅台或下调今年业绩目标。智通财经记者以 投资者身份致电贵州茅台，公司证券部人士表示，目前公司未下调年度业绩目标，上半年公司已按计划 完成目标进度。太平洋证券发布研报称，根据渠道调研，8月以来行业整体终端动销有所恢复，但预计 中秋国庆动销同比仍将承压。 值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"正式上市发布，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴 向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此前指出，上半 年公司推出全新旗舰产品"大珍"，定位协同珍15、珍30系列，高质价比有望构筑珍酒第三增长曲线。 珍酒李渡(06979)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.92%，报8.83港元，成交额1.2亿港元。 ...

值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"正式上市发布，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴 向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此前指出，上半 年公司推出全新旗舰产品"大珍"，定位协同珍15、珍30系列，高质价比有望构筑珍酒第三增长曲线。 消息面上，白酒行业深度调整下，近日市场有传闻称，贵州茅台（600519）或下调今年业绩目标。智通 财经记者以投资者身份致电贵州茅台，公司证券部人士表示，目前公司未下调年度业绩目标，上半年公 司已按计划完成目标进度。太平洋证券发布研报称，根据渠道调研，8月以来行业整体终端动销有所恢 复，但预计中秋国庆动销同比仍将承压。 珍酒李渡(06979)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.92%，报8.83港元，成交额1.2亿港元。 ...

Company Overview - On August 26, the company held a semi-annual performance briefing where the chairman shared the "Wanshang Alliance" plan and interacted with investors [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in its flagship products, with expectations of slight declines in the high-end liquor division and old products [1] - The company aims to maintain a clearance strategy in the second half of the year, with overall inventory expected to remain low [1] Product and Market Strategy - The newly launched "Dazhen" product has significantly contributed to growth, with over 50 "Wanshang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [2] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 distributors by the end of the year, which is expected to be a core growth driver for the second half [2] - The flat model of "Dazhen" is believed to have strong penetration potential, which could enhance the number of alliance merchants and ensure stable, sustainable profits [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects a narrowing of revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with absolute revenue potentially decreasing slightly [2] - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable or slightly increase, while the management expense ratio is expected to rise due to reverse scale effects [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to 1.1 billion HKD, while the 2026 forecast has been raised by 5.4% to 1.44 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been increased by 27% to 11.2 HKD, reflecting a 31x/24x P/E ratio for 2025/26 adjusted net profit, with a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [2]

Core Insights - The "Wanshang Alliance" model addresses four major channel pain points: price chaos, high pressure on distributors' funds, profit dilution, and high inventory levels, potentially becoming the company's third growth curve [1] - The Dazhen product will play a strategic role in the product matrix, targeting the 600 yuan price range, aiming to capture both consumption upgrade and downgrade demands, while avoiding direct competition with ultra-high-end products [2] - The company aims to create a natural demand for products through consumer cultivation and atmosphere building, transforming group buyers into hybrid distributors, thus rapidly expanding sales volume [3] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 5.666 billion yuan and 6.074 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 19.8% in 2025 and a growth of 7.2% in 2026 [3] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion yuan and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in 2025 and an increase of 10.0% in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to fully deplete channel inventory this year, with a potential recovery in growth for old products next year, driven by the revenue contribution from the "Da Zhen" product line [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to HKD 1.1 billion, while the forecast for 2026 has been raised by 5.4% to HKD 1.44 billion [1] - The target price has been increased by 27% to HKD 11.2, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 24x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [1] Group 2: Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue for Zhenjiu decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in Zhen 30 and Zhen 15, while Li Du's revenue fell by 9.4%, the smallest decline among four brands [2] - The company is expected to maintain a clearing strategy in the second half of 2025, with overall inventory likely to remain low [2] Group 3: Product Development - The "Da Zhen" product line has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with over 50 "Wan Shang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [3] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 merchants this year, which will be a core growth driver for the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects a narrowing of the revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with stable gross margins and slight increases in management expenses due to reverse scale effects [4] - For next year, the revenue from old products is expected to stabilize and slightly increase, with "Da Zhen" continuing to contribute significantly [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the company expects to fully deplete channel inventory this year, with a potential recovery in sales for old products next year, and significant revenue contribution from the "Da Zhen" recruitment initiative [1][2] - The company has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 8.3% to HKD 1.1 billion, while raising the 2026 forecast by 5.4% to HKD 1.44 billion, leading to a target price increase of 27% to HKD 11.2 [1] - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 21x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 44.8%, primarily due to adjustments in its premium products, but channel inventory has significantly decreased to a reasonable level [3] - The company is expected to maintain a clearing strategy in the second half of 2025, with a further narrowing of revenue decline anticipated [3] - The "Da Zhen" product, launched on June 17, has already signed over 2,000 distributors and is projected to sign around 3,000 by the end of the year, becoming a key growth driver [4] Group 3 - The company anticipates a reduction in the revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with stable gross margins and slight increases in management expenses due to reverse scale effects [5] - Looking ahead to next year, the company expects stable growth for old products and continued significant contributions from "Da Zhen," with Li Du projected to achieve steady growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, with revenue at 2.5 billion yuan, net profit at 570 million yuan, and adjusted net profit at 610 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 39.6%, 23.5%, and 39.8% respectively [1][5] - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health by controlling sales pace, while leveraging consumption scenarios such as weddings and graduations to counteract market downturns [1][5] - The introduction of new products under the "Da Zhen" brand and the alliance model is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in H2 2025, with a focus on price management capabilities [1][5] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to 1.41 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025 [1][5] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 59.0%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in high-end product revenue [1][5] - The revenue breakdown by brand for H1 2025 shows that "Zhen Jiu" generated 1.49 billion yuan, "Li Du" 610 million yuan, "Xiang Jiao" 280 million yuan, and "Kai Kou Xiao" 80 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, and -63.9% [1][5] - The company’s total market capitalization is 3.34 billion yuan, with a current share price of 9.86 HKD [2] Future Outlook - The "Da Zhen" project has signed over 2,100 clients, with expectations for significant revenue contributions in H2 2025 [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's ability to manage pricing and channels effectively to enhance brand image and market position [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a new strategic product "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 RMB, targeting the market for high-quality liquor priced around 2000 RMB, responding to rational consumption trends [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The new product features a five-year base liquor and is complemented by over 20 years of aged liquor for flavoring, emphasizing its rarity and quality [1] - The product's packaging design is minimalist, enhancing its high-end recognition, and aims to penetrate market demand through its quality-price ratio [1] - The company aims to build a strong trust chain among manufacturers, merchants, and consumers, focusing on creating a market-impacting phenomenon with this product [1] Group 2: Innovative Business Model - The "Wanshang Alliance" model ensures transparent pricing at the terminal level, with strict channel control by the manufacturer to secure high channel profits [2] - The company employs a four-tier supervision mechanism involving sales personnel, alliance merchants, auditors, and headquarters, which has already led to the expulsion of over 20 non-compliant merchants [2] - The company anticipates reaching 5,000 to 8,000 signed merchants by 2026, with current signed merchants at 2,116, and sees potential for further client conversion from competitors [2] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Outlook - The company plans to adjust its marketing strategy in 2025, focusing on inventory clearance, with stable channel order in key provinces like Guizhou, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong [3] - The company expects sales volume recovery in the future as the market stabilizes, particularly for its existing products [3] - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth potential driven by the new product [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is launching a new strategic product, "Da Zhen," priced at 888 RMB, which aims to meet rational consumption demands with high quality and competitive pricing [12][13] - The "Wan Shang Alliance" model is expected to innovate the channel structure, ensuring transparent pricing and high channel profits, which could lead to significant market impact [16][25] - The company anticipates a recovery in sales as inventory is cleared, particularly in key provinces where channel order remains stable [33] Summary by Sections New Product Launch - The new product "Da Zhen" is designed to appeal to consumers seeking high quality at a reasonable price, featuring a five-year base liquor and over 20 years of aged liquor for flavor enhancement [13][12] - The product's packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures have been upgraded to enhance its market appeal and consumer trust [13][14] Channel Innovation - The "Wan Shang Alliance" model focuses on low entry barriers and high returns, promoting a trust chain among manufacturers, merchants, and consumers [16][25] - The model includes strict price control and a four-tier supervision mechanism to maintain channel order and profitability [20][26] Sales Recovery - The company is adjusting its marketing strategy to focus on inventory clearance, with expectations for early recovery in sales as market conditions improve [33][35] - Key provinces like Guizhou, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong are expected to maintain stable channel orders, with specific products positioned for growth in banquet scenarios [33] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB respectively, reflecting optimism about the new product's contribution [44][49] - The report indicates that the company's PE ratios are competitive compared to peers, suggesting potential for growth as market conditions stabilize [47][50]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing sales pressure, with significant short-term performance decline for Zhenjiu and Lidu, as they focus on market relief and inventory control [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu and Lidu expect revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in liquor consumption is attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policy impacts, particularly affecting business banquets, social gatherings, and gift-giving scenarios [1] - The high-end product segment, particularly Zhen30 and above, is impacted by downward price adjustments in premium liquor, leading to a focus on volume control and price stabilization [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen, in June 2025, targeting a market gap between Zhen15 and Zhen30, with positive sales progress expected [2] - The chairman is actively promoting the brand through personal marketing efforts on social media platforms [2] - The company aims to enhance its existing flagship products' competitive edge through refined sales strategies and increased market penetration [2] Group 4: Product Expansion - A high-end beer brand named "Niushi" is set to launch on August 8, with the first product priced at 88 yuan per 375ml aluminum bottle [2] - The company is focusing on emerging consumer trends and plans to develop products tailored for specific occasions like birthdays and weddings [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a rare listed entity in the liquor sector, with strong operational momentum and significant future growth potential [2] - Zhenjiu is positioned in the second tier of the liquor market, with opportunities to leverage brand and channel advantages in a concentrated market [2] - Lidu is seen as a rising star in the high-end segment, with innovative marketing strategies enhancing its market presence [2]