报表出清，大珍寻机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司收入/净利润/经调整净利润分别为 25.0 亿元 /5.7 亿元/6.1 亿元，同比-39.6%/-23.5%/-39.8%。25H1 公司报表侧开始出清， 珍酒严控销售节奏维护渠道健康，李渡依托婚宴、升学宴等消费场景逆周期对 冲，毛利率保持稳定，费用短期刚性但后续有望削减，利润率侧预计继续保持。 展望 25H2，大珍新品推出与联盟体形式有望贡献重要增量，后续重点关注公司 价格管理能力，若整体得当，大珍有望成为填补珍 15、珍 30 价格带的重要利 器。考虑到公司面临外部压力，我们下调 25-27 年经调整净利润至 14.1 亿元、 15.4 亿元、18.8 亿元，对应 25 年 21.8 倍 PE，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：9.86 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3389 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 3389 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.1 | | R ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing sales pressure, with significant short-term performance decline for Zhenjiu and Lidu, as they focus on market relief and inventory control [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu and Lidu expect revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in liquor consumption is attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policy impacts, particularly affecting business banquets, social gatherings, and gift-giving scenarios [1] - The high-end product segment, particularly Zhen30 and above, is impacted by downward price adjustments in premium liquor, leading to a focus on volume control and price stabilization [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen, in June 2025, targeting a market gap between Zhen15 and Zhen30, with positive sales progress expected [2] - The chairman is actively promoting the brand through personal marketing efforts on social media platforms [2] - The company aims to enhance its existing flagship products' competitive edge through refined sales strategies and increased market penetration [2] Group 4: Product Expansion - A high-end beer brand named "Niushi" is set to launch on August 8, with the first product priced at 88 yuan per 375ml aluminum bottle [2] - The company is focusing on emerging consumer trends and plans to develop products tailored for specific occasions like birthdays and weddings [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a rare listed entity in the liquor sector, with strong operational momentum and significant future growth potential [2] - Zhenjiu is positioned in the second tier of the liquor market, with opportunities to leverage brand and channel advantages in a concentrated market [2] - Lidu is seen as a rising star in the high-end segment, with innovative marketing strategies enhancing its market presence [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 23% to 24% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to external pressures by adjusting its payment and delivery schedules, focusing on channel health, and launching strategic flagship products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company’s brand possesses unique characteristics and a diversified marketing system, which may support regional and capacity expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 24.0 to 25.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is around 5.7 to 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 23% to 24% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be approximately 6.1 to 6.2 billion RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new strategic flagship products, including "珍 10" and "大珍·珍酒," to capture market share in both mid-range and high-end segments [3]. - Efforts are being made to solidify the competitive position of existing flagship products and enhance penetration in core markets [3]. - The company aims to tap into emerging consumer trends and scenarios, such as products for birthdays and weddings [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27% across the board, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.38, and 0.44 RMB for the respective years [4][12]. - The target price is set at 8.04 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable net profit margin despite the adjustments, reflecting confidence in its core business profitability [12].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of 28-year-old Wu Qirong as the youngest executive director of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979.HK) signals both family succession and strategic transformation within the company [2][3]. Company Overview - Wu Qirong, son of Chairman Wu Xiangdong, has a background in digital marketing and has been involved in various roles within the company since graduating from the University of Birmingham in 2019 [2]. - The company has faced significant challenges, with 2024 revenue reported at 7.067 billion yuan, showing nearly zero growth, and net profit plummeting by 43.1% to 1.324 billion yuan [2][3]. Market Challenges - Zhenjiu Lidu's core products are experiencing severe price declines, with the high-end "Zhen 30" retail price dropping over 60% from the suggested price, and the mid-range "Zhen 15" only achieving 40% of its suggested price [3]. - The company is struggling to compete with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye while facing inventory buildup and shrinking channel profits [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Wu Qirong's leadership is seen as a potential turning point, leveraging his dual background in computer science and business management to align with the industry's trend towards digitalization and youth engagement [3]. - The company needs to activate the differentiated advantages of its sub-brands and innovate in brand image and product offerings to meet new consumer demands [3]. Governance and Management Issues - The governance dynamics between family-owned enterprises and professional managers, along with the contrast between high executive salaries and declining performance, will test Wu Qirong's management acumen [4].