1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2880 - 2940. The market is neutral, with the U.S. soybean price being affected by Sino - U.S. negotiations and harvest weather, and the domestic soybean meal price being influenced by U.S. soybean trends, high imports, and spot - price discounts [9]. 2.2. Soybeans - Soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3980 - 4080. It is neutral, supported by the cost - effectiveness of domestic soybeans compared to imports but suppressed by high imports and expected domestic yield increases [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No specific content provided 3.2. Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above 1000 points, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain high, and soybean meal inventory has declined from its high. The soybean market will return to a range - bound pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - breeding profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October [13]. - The soybean meal market will remain volatile, waiting for clear U.S. soybean production and the outcome of the Sino - U.S. tariff war [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors are high domestic soybean imports in October and expected high U.S. soybean yields [14]. - The main logic is the focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are cost support for domestic soybeans from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors are high Brazilian soybean yields and expected increases in domestic soybean production [15]. - The main logic is the focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff negotiations [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price Data - From October 9 - 17, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2965 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume varied from 6.51 - 22.38 million tons [16]. - From October 9 - 17, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot markets showed certain fluctuations [18]. 3.4.2. Inventory Data - As of a certain period, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The oil - mill soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.4.3. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. 3.5. Positioning Data - The positions of the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans have changed, with the main short positions in soybean meal decreasing and those in soybeans increasing [9][11]. 3.6. Others - Sino - U.S. soybean trade is affected by tariff negotiations and weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas [13][14]. - Domestic soybean imports in October are high, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its peak [13]. - The profitability of domestic pig - breeding has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened [13]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the profit margin of the futures market has fluctuated slightly [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, US soybean weather, and import volume. The short - term trend of US soybeans is mainly in a volatile state above the 1000 mark. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal are also in a volatile pattern, influenced by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic demand [10][11]. - The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand for soybean meal has entered the off - season, and the price is affected by factors such as import volume, oil mill inventory, and downstream demand [1][10][11]. - The pig - raising industry has seen a recent decline in profits, and the price of live pigs has also fallen back. The demand for soybean meal in the short term is relatively weak, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather still affects the market [13][14][56]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips No information is provided under this section. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are still deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will be further guided by growth and harvesting conditions, import volume, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The domestic import volume of soybeans remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction of pig - raising profits in the domestic market has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal in October has decreased, which suppresses the price of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still affects the market [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for soybean meal - There are still uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [14]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is still at a low level [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for soybean meal - The total import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in October [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America continues [14]. Bullish for soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. Bearish for soybeans - Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA's monthly supply - demand report in the past six months**: The planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have changed. The production of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be 1.69 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans is expected to be 0.49 billion tons [23]. - **US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress**: In 2024, the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The harvesting rate also showed a certain growth trend [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian soybean planting and harvesting progress in the 2024/25 season**: The planting rate and harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans showed a growth trend, and were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - **Argentine soybean planting progress in the 2024/25 season**: The planting rate of Argentine soybeans showed an upward trend, and was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided under this section. 3.6 Trading Strategies Soybean meal trading strategy - **Futures**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybean trading strategy - **Futures**: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3900 - 4100, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options strategy**: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, the follow - up of Sino - US trade relations and tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors, and the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, high imports of soybeans in October and spot price discounts suppress the futures price, but the variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas supports the bottom of the market. Overall, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Similar to soybean meal, the US soybean market has uncertainties. In the domestic market, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supports the price, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the market. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a standstill, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China in October remains at a relatively high level. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean market is in a critical period affected by US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. Soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, which weakens the demand for soybean meal in October, suppressing the price. However, due to the uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is still in a range - bound pattern [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still the possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for clear information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the China - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal Transaction Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the transaction price of soybean meal was between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 504 yuan/ton [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the price of soybean meal futures (M2601) was between 2922 - 2967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was between 2880 - 2910 yuan/ton. The price of soybean futures (A2601) on October 13 was 3967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4100 yuan/ton [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 23 to October 13, the soybean (A) warehouse receipts decreased from 7606 to 7090, the soybean (B) warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 600, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 39055 to 41285 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. from 2015 to 2024, reflecting the overall supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress data of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the production situation in different regions [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data, which have an important impact on the soybean market [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides viewpoints and strategies for both soybeans and soybean meal. The overall outlook for soybean meal is that it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. The domestic soybean A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Key factors influencing these trends include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation in the market [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in October, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting clarity on US soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [13] Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot price summary: Data from September 22 to September 30 show the prices and trading volumes of soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot markets, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [15][17] - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32] - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina: Show the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different time periods, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [42] - Other data: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans reached a high in September and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills has declined from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continues to increase. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the post - holiday stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean - meal output in July increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][50][52] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term volatile situation, affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports its price. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also contributes to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war make the short - term soybean meal market remain volatile [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in September in China, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 3030 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 6.25 - 25.9 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 19th to 29th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was relatively stable, around 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From September 17th to 29th, the bean 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 7922 to 7290, the bean 2 warehouse receipts decreased from 100 to 0, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts remained at 39055 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From March - September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [42]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean growing weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The US soybean market is affected by the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the weather in the new US soybean production areas, with uncertainties remaining. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans and the demand for soybean meal [10][14][15]. - The soybean market is also in a volatile situation. The domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but is suppressed by factors such as the abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The market also focuses on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariffs [15]. - The situation in the pig - breeding industry shows that the recent breeding profit has turned poor, with an increase in short - term supply and a weak downstream replenishment enthusiasm. The demand for soybean meal in October needs attention, and the price is mainly determined by the supply side [56]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in September. The soybean meal inventory in oil mills entered a relatively high level in September. The September USDA report had a relatively neutral impact, and the domestic soybean meal market returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal** - Bullish factors: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in September, and the abundant harvest of South American soybeans is expected to continue [14]. - **Soybeans** - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the soybean price [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean production areas is currently normal, with a neutral impact. In the short - term, the weather in US soybean production areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Import Cost**: US soybeans are in a volatile state. The Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain, with a bullish impact. The import cost is expected to be volatile and weak, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Crushing**: The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to be good, and the crushing volume of oil mills remains high, with a bearish impact. The demand is expected to pick up in the short - term, and the oil mill operation is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook [9]. - **Trading Volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term procurement has increased, with a bullish impact. The market trading volume is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, with a bearish impact. The upstream operation remains high, and the oil mill inventory is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [10]. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - **Soybean Meal** - Fundamental analysis: US soybeans are volatile and rising. The domestic soybean meal is volatile and falling, and may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have increased [10]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [17][19]. - **Soybeans** - Fundamental analysis: US soybeans are volatile and rising. The domestic soybean market is affected by factors such as the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and is in a volatile state [11]. - Strategy: The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. For options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [20]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures are volatile and falling, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has narrowed slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates at a low level [59][61]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - **Soybeans** - The soybean futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show a short - term technical rebound, but the upward space is limited, and the market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [67]. - **Soybean Meal** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern after rebounding from the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans and rapeseed meal and the expected change in domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show a short - term technical consolidation, and the market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new guidance from the US soybean market and domestic factors [69]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the growing weather in US soybean production areas, the Sino - US trade relationship and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. - Secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement. - Other important factors are macro - economic factors and conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel conflicts [72][73].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2601): Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is awaiting the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather. In China, high September soybean imports and spot price discounts may lead to a return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybeans (A2511): Forecast to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The US soybean market is restricted by South American harvests and good growing conditions. In China, domestic soybeans have a cost - performance advantage, but high imports and expected new - season production increases may suppress prices [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No detailed content provided in the given text 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will continue to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further developments [13]. - China's September soybean imports remain high, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are at a relatively high level. The soybean market will likely return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced pig - farming profits in China have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, increased demand for soybean meal in August and September, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, will keep the soybean meal market oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, relatively low oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertain US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish: High September imports of soybeans in China and expected high yields from South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand for soybeans [15]. - Bearish: High yields of Brazilian soybeans and expected increases in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and total supply generally increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and imports increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - No detailed content provided in the given text 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - Price Trends: Soybean meal futures declined, while spot prices remained stable, with a slight narrowing of the spot discount. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16][18][23]. - Inventory Status: Oil - mill soybean inventories decreased from a high level, while soybean meal inventories continued to increase. Oil - mill unfulfilled contracts decreased from a high level [47][49]. - Import and Export: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. China's September soybean imports decreased from a high level but increased overall year - on - year [44][46]. - Pig Farming: Pig inventories increased, sow inventories were flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices declined, and piglet prices remained weak. Pig - farming profits deteriorated recently [55][57][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures in the US oscillate and close higher. After being pressured by the negative impact of Argentina's tariff policy, it undergoes technical consolidation. It oscillates above the 1000-point mark, awaiting further guidance on the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in the US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean meal oscillates and declines, influenced by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation. The relatively high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices suppress the market expectations. In the short term, it may return to an oscillating pattern [8]. - The domestic soybean oscillates and declines, affected by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppress the market. In the short term, it is affected by the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No specific content provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - The Sino-US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, which is a short-term negative for US soybeans. However, there are still uncertainties in the Sino-US trade negotiations and the US soybean weather. The US market will maintain an oscillation above the 1000-point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has reached a relatively high level in September. The weather of US soybeans and the Sino-US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The impact of the September USDA report is relatively neutral, and the soybean meal will return to an interval oscillation pattern in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price expectation of soybean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Sino-US trade negotiations, the soybean meal returns to an interval oscillation pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the uncertainties of the Sino-US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the US soybean yield and the subsequent Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans [13]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills is still at a low level [13]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of the US soybean-producing areas [13]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in September [13]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continues [13]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [14]. - The expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans [14]. - The expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 2870 (East China), with a basis of -58, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 116.44 million tons, an increase of 2.48% from last week's 113.62 million tons and a decrease of 13.54% compared to the same period last year. The price is below the 20-day moving average and moving downward [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 222, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 73.2 million tons, an increase of 0.21% from last week's 731.7 million tons and an increase of 6.35% compared to the same period last year. The price is below the 20-day moving average and moving downward [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and the capital has flowed in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2980 and 3040. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, domestic soybean imports, and oil mill inventories [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a narrow - range volatile state. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3840 and 3940. It is affected by US soybean weather, Sino - US trade relations, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The market is neutral. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased but funds have flowed out. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern between 2980 - 3040 [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed out. It is expected to fluctuate between 3840 - 3940 [10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains high, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of domestic imported soybeans in September, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [32]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has rebounded and increased year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level but increased year - on - year overall [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to increase [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level due to the reduced demand for holiday stocking [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined with the fall of US soybeans, and the futures profit has fluctuated slightly [51]. - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [53]. - The pig price has declined again recently, and the piglet price remains weak [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has deteriorated recently [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating downward. With the start of US soybean harvesting and the lack of results in Sino - US trade negotiations, the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal is also oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, with good recent demand as support and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures market. In the short term, it may return to an oscillatory pattern. The expected trading range for Bean Meal M2601 is between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating downward, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are bottoming out and rising, affected by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures market. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The expected trading range for Soybean A2511 is between 3840 and 3940 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward under the relatively positive influence of US agricultural report data, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The inventory of bean meal in oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data of the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price expectation of bean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, bean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills; and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in September; the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2910 (in East China), and the basis is - 83, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of bean meal in oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week's 107.88 million tons, and a 15.76% decrease compared with 134.88 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4140, and the basis is 236, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week's 682.53 million tons, and a 6.17% increase compared with 689.18 million tons in the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].