交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2 近期要闻 豆粕早报 2025-10-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2880至2940区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，中美谈判恢复提振市场信心和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘 面，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-25，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存118.92万吨，上周125万吨，环比减少4.86%，去年同期122.65万吨， 同比减少3.04%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求进入淡季，豆粕弱势震荡 （豆粕周报10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期转淡， 油厂压榨量高位回落 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏弱，油厂开机预 计高位 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-10-14 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 4.国内油厂豆粕库存继续回升，美国大豆产区天气炒作可能性仍存和中 美关税战变数影响，豆粕短期维持震荡，等待美国大豆产量明确和中美关税 战后续进一步指引。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅震荡，短期技术性 震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面，短期或回归震荡格 局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-22，贴水期货。偏空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides viewpoints and strategies for both soybeans and soybean meal. The overall outlook for soybean meal is that it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. The domestic soybean A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Key factors influencing these trends include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation in the market [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in October, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting clarity on US soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [13] Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot price summary: Data from September 22 to September 30 show the prices and trading volumes of soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot markets, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [15][17] - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32] - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina: Show the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different time periods, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [42] - Other data: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans reached a high in September and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills has declined from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continues to increase. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the post - holiday stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean - meal output in July increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][50][52] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term volatile situation, affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports its price. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also contributes to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war make the short - term soybean meal market remain volatile [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in September in China, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 3030 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 6.25 - 25.9 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 19th to 29th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was relatively stable, around 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From September 17th to 29th, the bean 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 7922 to 7290, the bean 2 warehouse receipts decreased from 100 to 0, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts remained at 39055 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From March - September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [42]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中美贸易谈判僵持，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， 油厂压榨量维持高位 | 偏空 | 需求短期回升，油厂开机预 计维持 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 CONTENTS 目 录 4 基本面数据 1 每日提示 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，阿根廷出口创汇达到70亿美元目标后结束，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，短 期技术性震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面预期，短期 或回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-57，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，阿根廷关税政策利空打压后技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘 面预期，短期或回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-58，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2980 and 3040. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, domestic soybean imports, and oil mill inventories [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a narrow - range volatile state. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3840 and 3940. It is affected by US soybean weather, Sino - US trade relations, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The market is neutral. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased but funds have flowed out. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern between 2980 - 3040 [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed out. It is expected to fluctuate between 3840 - 3940 [10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains high, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of domestic imported soybeans in September, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [32]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has rebounded and increased year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level but increased year - on - year overall [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to increase [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level due to the reduced demand for holiday stocking [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined with the fall of US soybeans, and the futures profit has fluctuated slightly [51]. - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [53]. - The pig price has declined again recently, and the piglet price remains weak [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has deteriorated recently [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating downward. With the start of US soybean harvesting and the lack of results in Sino - US trade negotiations, the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal is also oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, with good recent demand as support and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures market. In the short term, it may return to an oscillatory pattern. The expected trading range for Bean Meal M2601 is between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating downward, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are bottoming out and rising, affected by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures market. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The expected trading range for Soybean A2511 is between 3840 and 3940 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward under the relatively positive influence of US agricultural report data, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The inventory of bean meal in oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data of the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price expectation of bean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, bean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills; and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in September; the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2910 (in East China), and the basis is - 83, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of bean meal in oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week's 107.88 million tons, and a 15.76% decrease compared with 134.88 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4140, and the basis is 236, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week's 682.53 million tons, and a 6.17% increase compared with 689.18 million tons in the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].