Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that due to limited allocation of advanced process capacity to high-end server DRAM and HBM, the overall DRAM prices are expected to continue rising in Q4. Trendforce forecasts a 8-13% quarter-on-quarter increase in general DRAM prices by Q4 2025. Additionally, the shortage of HDD supply and extended lead times are driving CSPs to rapidly shift storage demand towards QLC eSSD, leading to significant market fluctuations and an anticipated 5-10% increase in NAND Flash contract prices across all product categories by Q4 2025 [1]. Demand Side - The transition from HDD to SSD/DRAM is accelerated by the AI era, where data volume is rapidly expanding from MB to EB/ZB levels. Applications like Sora 2 are further driving this growth. AI is transforming "cold data" into frequently accessed "warm/hot data," which enhances storage needs. The core of inference is shifting towards "storage-based computing," optimizing throughput and energy efficiency through a layered storage system involving HBM/DRAM+CXL+SSD [1]. Supply Side - The introduction of CBA and HBF technologies aims to overcome the limitations imposed by the "memory wall" on computing power. CBA technology significantly increases storage density per unit area and optimizes internal interconnect paths, being applied in next-generation DRAM and NAND technologies. Domestic leaders like Hefei Changxin and Yangtze Memory Technologies are also accelerating their advancements. HBF technology, inspired by HBM packaging design, offers 8-16 times the storage capacity and non-volatile storage advantages, alleviating heat management and energy cost pressures in AI data centers [2]. Equipment - The storage industry is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation, benefiting from increased capital expenditure (Capex) driven by AI demand and ongoing storage price increases. According to SEMI, the global NAND equipment market is projected to reach $13.7 billion and $15 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 42.5% and 9.7%. Innovations in storage architectures like 4F2 DRAM and 3D NAND are creating new opportunities for etching, deposition, and bonding equipment [3]. Investment Targets - Suggested companies to focus on include: 1) Demand side: Demingli (001309.SZ), Jiangbolong (301308.SZ), Shannon Semiconductor (300475.SZ), and Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) 2) Logic die foundry driven by CBA: Jinghe Integration (688249.SH) and Huahong (688347.SH) 3) Storage manufacturers benefiting from increased Capex: Tuojing Technology (688072.SH), Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ), Zhongwei Company (688012.SH), Huahai Qingke (688120.SH), Jingzhida (688627.SH), Huafeng Measurement and Control (688200.SH), and Changchuan Technology (300604.SH) [4].

Investment Rating - The storage industry is expected to enter a "prosperity cycle" with a recommendation to focus on specific companies such as Demingli, Jiangbolong, and Zhaoyi Innovation [4][72][74]. Core Insights - The demand for storage is driven by AI, with a significant shift from HDD to SSD/DRAM due to the increasing data volume and the need for faster access [2][18][72]. - The supply side is innovating with CBA and HBF technologies to overcome the limitations of traditional memory, enhancing storage density and performance [3][40][52]. - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to benefit from increased capital expenditure by storage manufacturers, with NAND equipment market size expected to reach $13.7 billion in 2025 [4][61][72]. Summary by Sections Storage Cycle - The storage industry exhibits clear cyclical characteristics, with the current cycle driven by AI demand and supply optimization from major manufacturers [9][12]. Demand Side - The transition from cold data to warm data is accelerating the replacement of HDDs with SSDs, as AI applications require more frequent data access [2.2][28]. - The data generated by AI applications is expected to grow exponentially, with projections indicating a shift from megabytes to exabytes and zettabytes [2.1][21]. Supply Side - CBA technology is crucial for achieving high density and performance in storage solutions, with applications in next-generation DRAM and NAND technologies [3.1][40]. - HBF technology offers significant advantages in capacity and energy efficiency, positioning it as a key solution for AI applications [3.2][52]. Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is anticipated to grow significantly, with NAND equipment sales projected to increase by 42.5% in 2025 [4.1][61]. - Innovations in etching and deposition equipment are essential for advancing storage density and performance [4.2][68]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the storage industry's growth, including Demingli, Jiangbolong, and Zhaoyi Innovation [4][72][74].

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, prompting shareholders of storage companies to consider selling their shares after significant stock price increases [2][4]. Company Summary - On November 3, 2023, Puran Co., Ltd. (688766.SH) announced that its second-largest shareholder, Shanghai Zhixiang Enterprise Management Consulting Partnership, plans to transfer 5.5832 million shares, representing 3.77% of the company's total share capital [2][3]. - As of November 3, 2023, Shanghai Zhixiang holds 18.37% of Puran's total shares, but the company's actual controllers and key executives will not participate in this share transfer [3]. - Puran's stock price has nearly doubled in two months, rising from 74.18 yuan per share on September 3 to 146.14 yuan per share on November 3, marking a 97% increase [4]. Industry Summary - The price increase in the storage industry is attributed to a tightening supply of NAND and DRAM chips, driven by rising demand from AI applications [4][8]. - TrendForce forecasts that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) will grow by over 130% annually by 2025, with continued growth of over 70% expected in 2026 [4]. - The emergence of "compute-in-memory" technology is transforming SSDs from mere storage devices into critical components for AI inference, addressing challenges in computational power and storage limitations [5]. - The market is currently characterized by a significant price increase for NAND and DDR components, with limited supply leading to high prices and low transaction volumes [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Puran reported revenue of 1.433 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.89%, but a profit of 47 million yuan, down 79.98% year-on-year [7]. - In the third quarter, revenue was 527 million yuan, up 11.94% year-on-year, but profit fell 87.95% to 11 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and increased asset impairment losses [7]. - The company has maintained high inventory levels, which has negatively impacted inventory turnover rates and contributed to the decline in profits despite the overall industry price surge [7].

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing price increases, prompting a major shareholder of Purun Co., Ltd. to plan a share reduction after a significant rise in stock price [1][2] Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Shanghai Zhixiang, the second-largest shareholder of Purun Co., plans to transfer 5.5832 million shares, accounting for 3.77% of the total share capital [1][2] - The transfer is motivated by the shareholder's personal funding needs and will not occur through the secondary market [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Purun's stock price surged from 74.18 yuan per share on September 3 to 146.14 yuan per share on November 3, marking a 97% increase over two months [2] - The company's market capitalization reached 21.636 billion yuan following this price increase [1] Group 3: Industry Context - The price surge in the storage industry is attributed to tightening supply in NAND and DRAM markets, driven by increased demand from AI applications [3][5] - TrendForce forecasts that HBM demand will grow by over 130% annually by 2025, with continued growth expected in subsequent years [3] Group 4: Company Financials - For the first three quarters of 2025, Purun reported revenue of 1.433 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.89%, but a profit drop of 79.98% [4] - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 527 million yuan, up 11.94% year-on-year, but profits fell by 87.95% due to a decrease in gross margin and increased asset impairment losses [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "storage instead of calculation" technology significantly optimizes costs and efficiency by migrating AI inference data to SSDs, leading to a demand surge that exceeds traditional growth rates [1] - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating their market share, with Yangtze Memory Technologies planning to reach a NAND production capacity of 300,000 wafers per month by 2028, capturing 15% of the global market [1] - Longsys Memory's DRAM production is expected to become the fourth largest globally, while international giants are shifting towards high-end products like HBM, creating niche market opportunities for domestic firms [1] Group 2 - In the fourth quarter, domestic storage companies are expected to benefit from a dual drive of "price recovery + domestic substitution," with demand and operating rates showing a robust recovery [1] - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the semiconductor index (000685), which includes 50 representative securities from the semiconductor industry chain, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's semiconductor sector [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and industry representation, with a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "storage instead of calculation" technology significantly optimizes costs and efficiency by migrating AI inference data to SSDs, leading to a demand surge for SSDs beyond traditional growth rates [1] Industry Summary - Domestic replacement is accelerating, with Yangtze Memory Technologies planning to reach a NAND production capacity of 300,000 wafers per month by 2028, capturing a 15% global market share [1] - Longsys Memory's DRAM production is expected to become the fourth largest globally [1] - International giants are shifting towards high-end products like HBM, creating niche market opportunities for domestic manufacturers [1] - In the fourth quarter, domestic storage companies are benefiting from a dual drive of "price recovery + domestic replacement," with demand and operating rates showing a robust recovery [1] Company Summary - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [1] - The index selects listed companies from the Sci-Tech board that are involved in the entire semiconductor industry chain, including materials, design, manufacturing, and packaging/testing [1] - Comprising 50 representative securities, the index reflects the overall performance and development trends of China's semiconductor industry [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and industry representativeness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the storage supercycle is a transition from "cyclical" to "structural," driven by AI technology, leading to significant growth in data center storage demand and innovation in storage technology [1] Group 1: Market Trends - NAND and DRAM prices are expected to continue rising in Q4, with an estimated increase of 8-13% for conventional DRAM and 5-10% for NAND Flash products [3] - The price of 1Tb Flash Wafer has increased by nearly 15% and 512Gb Flash Wafer by over 20% in the past month, driven by supply constraints and price hikes [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Opportunities - Domestic storage chip manufacturers are gaining market share as international giants shift focus to high-end products, creating a window for domestic alternatives [4] - Companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies are rapidly penetrating the enterprise market, with their SSDs widely used by major cloud service providers [5] Group 3: Production Capacity Expansion - Yangtze Memory Technologies plans to increase its monthly production capacity to 150,000 wafers by the end of 2025, aiming for a 15% share of the global NAND market [5] - Longsys Memory's DRAM production is expected to reach 2.73 million wafers per year, positioning it as the fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer globally [5] Group 4: Technological Innovations - The emergence of "storage as computation" technology is set to revolutionize storage, allowing for significant reductions in latency and costs associated with AI inference processes [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the storage module and control sector include Jiangbolong, Demingli, and others, while notable storage chip companies include Zhaoyi Innovation and others [7][8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural shift driven by AI technology, leading to a significant increase in demand for large-capacity storage in data centers, as well as in smart devices like smartphones and smart cars [4][8] - NAND and DRAM prices are on the rise, with a forecasted increase in prices for various storage products in the fourth quarter, driven by supply constraints and rising production costs [9][10] - Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to benefit from a combination of price recovery and domestic substitution, leading to a robust recovery in demand and production in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is transitioning from a cyclical to a structural growth phase, primarily due to the AI-driven demand for storage solutions [4][8] - The current "super cycle" in storage is characterized by a significant increase in data storage needs, influenced by the proliferation of AI technologies [8] Price Trends - Flash wafer prices have surged, with a 15% increase for 1Tb Flash Wafer and over 20% for 512Gb Flash Wafer in just a month and a half [9] - The prices of server memory modules have also seen substantial increases, with DDR4 RDIMM 16GB 3200 rising by 66.67% to $150.00 [9][10] Domestic Market Dynamics - International giants are shifting focus to high-end products, creating opportunities for domestic storage manufacturers to gain market share [5][11] - Companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies are expanding production capacity significantly, aiming for a 15% share of the global NAND market by 2028 [6][12] Technological Innovations - The "storage as computation" paradigm is emerging, which allows for the migration of AI inference data from expensive DRAM to more cost-effective SSDs, enhancing performance and reducing costs [13] - This innovation is expected to drive SSD demand growth beyond traditional trends [13] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies to watch include storage module and controller manufacturers like Jiangbolong and Demingli, as well as storage chip companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Puran [14]

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Technology is progressing towards its IPO, with its status changing to "Acceptance of Guidance," potentially making it the first storage chip company listed on the A-share market, with a current valuation of approximately 140 billion RMB [1][3]. Company Overview - Changxin Technology, established in 2016, specializes in the design, research, production, and sales of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) chips, covering the entire industry chain [3]. - Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Changxin Storage, is the largest and most technologically advanced IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) in China, achieving mass production of general-purpose DRAM [3]. Technological Advancements - The company has made significant technological breakthroughs, including the development of the first domestic 8Gb DDR4 chip in 2018 and the launch of LPDDR5 series products in November 2023, enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end market [3][4]. Market Potential - The market outlook for Changxin Storage is optimistic, driven by the AI computing revolution, which is reshaping the supply-demand dynamics in the storage chip industry [4]. - The Chinese storage chip market is projected to reach 460 billion RMB in 2024 and exceed 550 billion RMB in 2025, while the global market is expected to surpass 230 billion USD in 2025 [4]. Growth Projections - Counterpoint Research forecasts a 50% year-on-year increase in Changxin Storage's DRAM shipment volume by 2025, with its market share expected to rise from 6% in Q1 to 8% in Q4 [4]. - The share of DDR5 and LPDDR5 products in the overall shipments is anticipated to increase to 7% and 9%, respectively [4]. Strategic Implications - As a core player in China's DRAM industry, Changxin Technology's IPO is expected to facilitate business expansion and positively impact the upstream and downstream sectors of the industry chain [4]. - The expansion of advanced storage capacity and the gradual mass production of domestic HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) products are expected to drive growth in upstream equipment and materials [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in the AI era, storage chips, particularly HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), have transitioned from a supporting role to a critical bottleneck and breakthrough point due to the explosive growth in model parameters and training data, making traditional memory technologies inadequate [1] Group 1: HBM Demand and Supply - Major tech companies are positioning HBM as a strategic asset, with Micron highlighting an expected worsening supply-demand imbalance for HBM and other semiconductor chips [2] - Micron's CEO noted that DRAM inventory is below target levels while NAND inventory continues to decline, with HBM demand significantly increasing and expected to outpace overall DRAM growth by 2026 [2] - Huawei announced that its Ascend AI chips will utilize self-developed HBM starting with the Ascend 950PR, indicating a shift towards proprietary HBM solutions [2] Group 2: Custom HBM and Cost Implications - Analysts point out that customized HBM (cHBM) has evolved from a passive component to an active one with logic capabilities, reshaping the role of storage in AI infrastructure and increasing total cost of ownership (TCO) [3] - The integration of different functionalities and logic designs in cHBM is seen as a key differentiator in performance [3] Group 3: Energy Efficiency and Full-Stack Solutions - Storage manufacturers are now offering full-stack solutions that include HBM, logic die, LPDDR, and PIM, focusing on customized HBM collaborations with clients [4] - SK Hynix predicts that a 10% improvement in HBM energy efficiency could lead to a 2% energy saving at the rack level, highlighting the importance of HBM in energy conservation [4] Group 4: AI Inference Growth - The rapid rise of AI inference is driving a surge in storage demand, with expectations of a billion-fold increase in inference capabilities [5] - The need for high-performance memory and tiered storage is becoming increasingly critical as AI inference applications grow, with HBM, DRAM, SSD, and HDD playing vital roles in handling extensive data [5][6] Group 5: Potential for "Storage as Computation" - The supply constraints of HBM may lead to the emergence of "storage as computation" technologies, which aim to shift vector data from expensive DRAM and HBM to more cost-effective SSDs [7] - This approach is expected to significantly reduce latency and improve throughput in AI inference, providing a feasible path for large-scale AI deployment [7]