上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 本周海外市场较为平淡，ADP就业数据进一步走弱，9月PCE数据符合预期，市场充分计价12月降息，风 险偏好温和回升。周中日本央行意外释放加息信号，市场流动性边际紧张，但特朗普强烈暗示哈塞特可能 成为下一任美联储主席，市场对于美联储远期持续释放流动性预期增强，全球流动性仍将维持充裕，日本 加息仅造成短期扰动。不过，美国服务业ISM维持韧性，消费者信心有所改善，美国经济仍未显著恶化， 美联储降息空间有限，未来降息路径仍有博弈空间，风险资产普遍高位震荡，短期缺乏进一步催化，关注 下周美联储利率会议后资金获利了结的风险。 国内市场无论是对即将召开的政治局会议的预期还是对岁末年初稳经济政策如何接力的预期，均比较低， 中日关系紧张态势未消也对市场形成一定的阻力。关注即将召开的政治局会议，未来政策刺激的力度和节 奏将为后续市场表现定调。 全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年12月8日 二、全球大类资产走势一 ...

2. 安全感不是吹出来的，是验出来的 大家最关心的肯定还是安全。 我自己是那种"疑心病"很重的人。 投睿盛之前，我不仅看了他们的审计报告，还特意去查了他们的托管机构。 最让我放心的一点是透 明。收益怎么来的、风控怎么做的，月报里写得明明白白。这种"打开天窗说亮话"的态度，在现在的圈 子里真的属于稀缺资源。 而且，最最最重要的是——提现顺畅。 我不信画饼，我只信落袋为安。到期的收益我都试过提现，速 度和流程都很正规，没有任何卡顿。 3. 圈子很重要 上周跟几个投睿盛比较多的老哥聚了一次。 本来以为会像其他项目聚会一样，大家都在 喊单、吹牛。结果大家聊的全是全球宏观经济、美元降息影响、RWA 赛道前景。 那一刻我就感觉，这 次跟对人了。 在这个市场里，能沉下心来做长周期布局的，基本都是看懂了趋势的聪明钱。跟着聪明 钱走，大概率不会错。 最近大环境确实不太平，我看几个主流群里大家情绪都不高，要么是被套了，要么是拿不住割肉了。这 几天私信问我怎么操作的人不少，其实我现在操作很少，大部分仓位都挪到了睿盛环球那边去做长周期 配置了。 以前大家但我一样，听到"长周期"、"锁仓"这些词就头大，第一反应就是："是不是想圈钱跑 ...

Group 1 - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of technical selling and a shift in market sentiment, with prices dropping over 6% in London and 3.92% in Shanghai [1] - The significant rise in gold prices since mid-August, exceeding 30%, created a strong profit-taking demand, and the breach of key support levels triggered stop-loss orders, leading to a "flash crash" [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing, and a slight adjustment in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has diminished gold's short-term appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing global central bank purchases and economic uncertainties [2] - The current market adjustment is seen as a necessary correction to the previous rapid price increase, with expectations that gold will resume an upward trend after this phase [2][3] - Investors are advised to adopt a systematic approach to gold investment, such as regular and incremental purchases, to mitigate timing risks and smooth costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, with significant price drops, is attributed to technical sell-offs and shifts in market sentiment, but the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing global economic uncertainties and central bank policies [1][3][5]. Market Dynamics - On October 21, the London spot gold price fell over 6%, continuing to decline by more than 1.5% on October 22, indicating a sharp market reaction [1]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments are a result of profit-taking after a substantial increase in gold prices, which rose over 30% since mid-August [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The sharp decline in gold prices is linked to a breach of key support levels, triggering stop-loss orders and exacerbating the sell-off [3]. - The easing geopolitical tensions and slight adjustments in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have diminished gold's short-term appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the fundamental drivers supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases and economic uncertainties, remain intact [4][5]. - The historical data indicates that gold price corrections have become quicker, with significant upward movements followed by rapid adjustments [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective when considering gold investments, utilizing strategies such as dollar-cost averaging through gold accumulation plans or ETFs to mitigate timing risks [7]. - Gold should be viewed as part of a broader asset allocation strategy, focusing on its long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [7].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for insight in a rapidly changing macroeconomic landscape, highlighting the importance of professional analysis from Bloomberg's economists and market experts to identify investment opportunities [1] - The focus of the 2025 Bloomberg China Market Review series is on macroeconomic patterns and market dynamics, addressing key industry concerns and providing timely updates [1] Group 2 - The upcoming event on August 5, 2025, will feature discussions on U.S.-China relations and global economic outlook, as well as an analysis of Japan's economic prospects amidst political turmoil and tariff pressures [2] - Key speakers include Bloomberg's Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific, Taro Kimura, and a senior foreign exchange specialist, indicating a strong lineup of expertise for the discussions [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a high-level perspective and insight in the face of a rapidly changing macroeconomic landscape, particularly focusing on the 2025 Bloomberg China Market Review series [1] - It highlights the upcoming event on August 5, 2025, featuring discussions on key topics such as US-China relations and global economic outlook, as well as the economic prospects for Japan amidst political turmoil and tariff pressures [2] - The event will include expert analyses from Bloomberg's chief economists and senior specialists, providing valuable insights into macro market trends and forecasts [2] Group 2 - The article indicates that the "trade truce" period is nearing its end, suggesting a critical juncture for US-China relations and its implications for the global economy [2] - It mentions the need for a thorough analysis of Japan's economic outlook in light of ongoing political instability and trade challenges [2] - The article promotes the use of terminal analysis tools to gain deeper insights into macroeconomic markets and future trends [2]

Group 1: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US and Japan have reached a significant trade agreement, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US, from which the US will gain 90% of the profits [1] - The agreement is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US, and Japan will open its market for trade, including automobiles, rice, and other agricultural products [1] - Japan will pay a 15% tariff on imports from the US as part of the agreement [1] Group 2: US-Philippines Trade Agreement - A trade agreement has been reached between the US and the Philippines, with the US imposing a 19% tariff on imports from the Philippines [6][7] - The Philippines will open its market to the US and implement zero tariffs on US goods [7] - There has been no response from the Philippines regarding the agreement as of now [8] Group 3: Global Economic Impact of US Tariffs - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that the US's tariff policies could significantly impact the global macroeconomic landscape [10] - The increase in tariffs is expected to reduce global demand in the short term, raise import prices, and exacerbate inflationary pressures [10] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may weaken consumer and business confidence, leading to increased volatility in financial markets [10] - Countries may respond to the growing trade imbalances by raising trade barriers, potentially leading to greater geopolitical economic divisions and long-lasting damage to the global economy [10]

Core Insights - The report from the International Monetary Fund indicates that the Trump administration's imposition of import tariffs on nearly all trade partners may significantly impact the global macroeconomic landscape [1] Economic Impact - The increase in tariffs is expected to reduce global demand in the short term, leading to higher import prices and exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may weaken consumer and business confidence, contributing to increased volatility in financial markets [1] Trade Relations - The report suggests that countries may respond to the escalating trade imbalances by raising trade barriers further, which could intensify geopolitical economic divisions [1] - The long-term damage to the global economy from these tariff actions is anticipated to be substantial and enduring [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index has shown a 0.55% increase, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Huada Jiutian (up 14.99%) and Xinyi Sheng (up 5.86%) [1] - The CSI 300 ETF has seen a trading volume of 1.41 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.258 billion yuan over the past year, ranking in the top three among comparable funds [1] - The latest scale of the CSI 300 ETF has reached 167.092 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest [1] Group 2 - The CSI 300 Index is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.29, which is lower than 83.01% of the time since the index's inception, highlighting its attractive valuation [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index account for 22.85% of the index, with major companies including Kweichow Moutai and Ningde Times [1] Group 3 - Recent market conditions have led to a "triple kill" in U.S. assets, increasing risk aversion globally, while the A-share market is experiencing a period of adjustment [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the resilience of the A-share market is noted, supported by positive capital market policies and macroeconomic recovery in China [2] - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities discussed the improved ecosystem of China's capital market and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [2] Group 4 - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund, allowing for low-cost entry into the market [3]