| ISM Manufacturing Backlog of Orders | মাৰ্গ | 47.9 | | --- | --- | --- | | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44.9 | 44 | | ISM Manufacturing Inventories | 48.9 | 45.8 | | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 47.7 | 47.4 | | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 58.5 | 58.5 | | ISM Manufacturing Production | 51.4 | 48.2 | | ISM Manufacturing Supplier Deliveries | 49.3 | 54.2 | ISM制造业PMI数据的细分项目看，产出指数从51.4下降至51，支付指数保持58.5不变；就业指数从44 升高至44.9，库存指数从48.9下降至45.2，新订单指数从47.4升高至47.7点。综合来看，三个细分项目出 现下降，其中库存指数降幅最为显著，两个项目出现回升（但绝对值仍处于50荣枯线下方 ...

周二(1月6日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格强势反弹，目前交投于4467.97美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在近期 日内交易中上涨，受益于其在4400美元上方的稳定，以及由于其在50日均线上方交易而获得的动态支 撑，再加上短期主要上涨趋势的主导地位以及与该趋势的支撑趋势线并行交易。 在经济数据方面，标准普尔全球周一报告称，美国制造业PMI保持在51.8，表明持续扩张。相比之下， 供应管理协会(ISM)的制造业PMI上个月降至47.9，低于11月的48.2，表明商业活动持续收缩。 日图来看，突破100小时简单移动平均线(SMA)后的夜间突破，以及随后的突破4425-4450美元的拥堵区 域，可能被视为黄金多头的关键触发因素。移动平均收敛/发散(MACD)直方图已转为正值，并在1小时 图上小幅上升，MACD线略高于信号线，接近零点，表明动能改善。 与此同时，相对强弱指数(RSI)位于68(接近超买)，从中间区域上升，支持强劲的上行动能。突破70将加 强多头的论点，而未能突破则可能限制涨幅并鼓励盘整。由于价格保持在上升的100小时SMA之上，且 MACD刚刚转为正值，回调可能保持在浅层，短期偏向将保持积极。100小时SMA位于 ...

12月1日，受制造业数据低迷及哈塞特当选概率大涨影响，降息预期持续升温，金价盘中震荡上扬突破 4290美元后回落，在4259美元附近止跌回升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.24%报4265.00美元/盎 司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨1.03%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨3.33%。 市场分析指出，11月美国制造业收缩速度加快，供应商交付、新订单及就业大幅回落，PMI下降0.5个百 分点。随着近期美国经济数据转弱，以及美联储官员释放鸽派信号，市场预期未来将迎来更多降息，这 些因素仍在为金银价格提供坚实支撑。 消息面上，公布数据显示，美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数48.2，连续九个月低于50的荣枯线，创下四个 月来的最大萎缩；新订单指数降至自7月以来最快的收缩速度，积压订单则创七个月最大降幅。数据显 示，全美制造业整体景气度进一步下滑，制造商仍难摆脱长期低迷。CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储 12月降息25个基点的概率为87.6%。 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rubber sector has sufficient supply and strong expectations for consumption growth. The state of ample natural rubber supply and strong consumption growth expectations continues compared to the September report. On the supply side, Thai rubber prices are resilient but show a widening year - on - year decline, and the cup - to - cup price difference indicates sufficient supply. On the consumption side, global auto sales and domestic tire production show marginal increases. In terms of expectations, key macro data is strengthening [5][6]. - In October, synthetic rubber was extremely weak, and the BR - RU spread widened. The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber increased, and the cumulative production in the past 12 months also increased, indicating sufficient supply [7]. - The fundamentals of the rubber sector are relatively strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Supply Global Data - Climate - Analyzed the ENSO index and its impact on RU unilateral, including ENSO index, its indexation for RU unilateral, and the influence on RU spot and futures prices. Also studied the impact of El Niño and Southern Oscillation on the spreads of smoke - sheet - RU and BR - RU [17][25][37]. Global Data - Commodity Valuation - Studied the relationship between crude oil, gold prices and rubber prices, including the impact of the prices of crude oil, Brent crude oil, and gold on RU unilateral, BR - RU spread, and smoke - sheet - RU spread [45]. 2. Micro Supply Global Data - Absolute Price - Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, last - month, and last - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [65]. Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of ANRPC natural rubber and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [68][72]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, glue and cup - rubber prices, the spread between smoke - sheet rubber and standard rubber, the inventory and shipment of rubber products, and the export of smoke - sheet rubber, and their impacts on RU unilateral, smoke - sheet - RU spread, and BR - RU spread [78][93][110][120]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. Domestic Data - Not detailed in the summary part of the given content, but includes aspects such as China's rubber imports, production, apparent consumption, domestic glue products, and the supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber [29]. 3. Trade Circulation Global Data - Analyzed the balance sheets of the six major rubber - producing countries in Southeast Asia [45]. Overseas Data - Studied international trade, Japanese rubber inventory, Malaysian natural rubber retail inventory, Southeast Asian standard rubber processing profit, and overseas rubber and plastic machinery [46].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The US manufacturing PMI for August 2025 rose to 48.7%, up from 48.0% in the previous month, marking a slight recovery but remaining in contraction territory for six consecutive months[2] - The output index has accelerated its contraction, dropping to a level below the expansion threshold, indicating significant declines in production contributions[5] - The new orders index, after six months of contraction, returned to the expansion zone, suggesting a potential recovery in market demand[5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The contradiction between recovering market demand and contracting production highlights the impact of tariffs on business operations, leading to reduced finished goods inventory[5] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it could stimulate consumer demand and encourage businesses to replenish inventories, potentially boosting the PMI[2] - Despite the slight increase in PMI, the overall manufacturing sector continues to show weakness throughout the year, with high interest rates suppressing investment demand[2] Group 3: Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 43.8%, remaining below the expansion threshold for seven months, indicating a weak labor market[24] - The raw materials inventory index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.4%, while raw material prices decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 63.7%, suggesting easing cost pressures but persistent inflation concerns[21] - The divergence between the new orders index and the output index reflects insufficient consumer momentum, with businesses adopting cautious inventory management strategies[16]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on gold and a cautiously bullish view on silver in the second half of the year [1][3] - If the non - farm payroll data and tariff progress do not deteriorate significantly, gold may need to consolidate within a range this month; if they deteriorate significantly, the gold price is expected to rise with fluctuations, and silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short term [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, with an expected value of 48.8 and a previous value of 48.5; the output index was 50.3, the previous value was 45.4; the manufacturing price - paid index was 69.7, the expected value was 69, the previous value was 69.4; the employment index was 45, the expected value was 47, the previous value was 46.8; the inventory index was 49.2, the previous value was 46.7; the new orders index was 46.4, the previous value was 47.6 [2] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, the labor market is gradually cooling, it's uncertain if a July rate cut is too early, no meeting is excluded and it depends on data, the Fed's current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, and the economy and labor market are stable [2] - In May, the US JOLTs job openings were 7.769 million, with an expected value of 7.3 million and a revised previous value from 7.391 million to 7.395 million [2] - In May, the US construction spending decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with an expected decrease of 0.2% and a revised previous value from a decrease of 0.4% to a decrease of 0.2% [2] Price Logic - The US dollar reached a new low, and the US Treasury yields declined simultaneously. Most commodities rebounded, and precious metals showed a significant upward movement [1][3] - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly. Job openings indicate that the employment market demand remains resilient. The Fed Chairman's remarks became more dovish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year increased slightly. Fed Watch shows three rate cuts within the year, with the first cut still expected in September [1][3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [3]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the US manufacturing PMI for May 2025 rose to 52.3, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity after two months of contraction, surpassing market expectations and previous values [1] - The increase in PMI reflects a rebound in manufacturing output and the highest growth in new orders in the past 15 months, driven largely by inventory accumulation [1] - The rise in inventory levels is attributed to companies and customers stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariff issues, with a notable increase in procurement inventory reaching a historical high since the survey began in 2009 [1] Group 2 - Price pressures have become a focal point, with manufacturers' sales prices recording the largest monthly increase since September 2022, and input costs reaching a new high since August 2022 [2] - The composite PMI also improved, rising to 52.1, indicating overall economic activity enhancement, although there are warnings about the potential for inflationary pressures due to rising costs being passed on to consumers [2] - The stock market rebound and easing tariff policies are seen as important factors in the manufacturing recovery, but rising prices and supply chain delays may introduce uncertainties for future economic growth [2]

Core Insights - The ISM manufacturing PMI for the US in April recorded at 48.7, marking a new low since November 2024, and it exceeded the expected figure of 48 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a PMI below 50 typically signifies a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - The reported PMI of 48.7 suggests that the manufacturing sector is facing challenges, despite being higher than market expectations [1] - This data point may influence market sentiment and economic forecasts, as it reflects the current state of the manufacturing industry [1]