美元再创新低，美债收益率同步下⾏，商品⼤多受益反弹，贵⾦属出现明 显上⾏。美国6⽉ISM制造业PMI向上修复，但幅度有限，职位空缺数显⽰ 就业市场需求仍有韧性，美联储主席承认劳动⼒市场正在降温，发⾔较先 前逐渐转鸽，年内降息预期⼩幅升温，Fed Watch显⽰年内降息3次， ⾸降仍维持在9⽉落地。本周仍重点关注⾮农就业数据和关税进展，若⼆ 者不显著恶化，⻩⾦⽉内或仍需在区间内震荡蓄⼒，若⼆者有有显著恶 化，⾦价预计就势震荡上⾏，⽩银短期预计跟随⾦价波动。下半年维持看 多⻩⾦，谨慎看多⽩银的观点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-2 美元再创新低，贵⾦属短线反弹 重点资讯： 1）美国6月ISM制造业PMI为49，预期48.8，前值48.5；产出指数为5 0.3，前值45.4；制造业物价支付指数为69.7，预期69，前值69.4； 就业指数为45，预期47，前值46.8；库存指数为49.2，前值46.7； 新订单指数为46.4，前值47.6。 2）美联储主席鲍威尔称，绝大多数美联储委员预计今年晚些时候会 降息；看到劳动力市场正在逐渐降温；无法确定7月降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the US manufacturing PMI for May 2025 rose to 52.3, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity after two months of contraction, surpassing market expectations and previous values [1] - The increase in PMI reflects a rebound in manufacturing output and the highest growth in new orders in the past 15 months, driven largely by inventory accumulation [1] - The rise in inventory levels is attributed to companies and customers stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariff issues, with a notable increase in procurement inventory reaching a historical high since the survey began in 2009 [1] Group 2 - Price pressures have become a focal point, with manufacturers' sales prices recording the largest monthly increase since September 2022, and input costs reaching a new high since August 2022 [2] - The composite PMI also improved, rising to 52.1, indicating overall economic activity enhancement, although there are warnings about the potential for inflationary pressures due to rising costs being passed on to consumers [2] - The stock market rebound and easing tariff policies are seen as important factors in the manufacturing recovery, but rising prices and supply chain delays may introduce uncertainties for future economic growth [2]

Core Insights - The ISM manufacturing PMI for the US in April recorded at 48.7, marking a new low since November 2024, and it exceeded the expected figure of 48 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a PMI below 50 typically signifies a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - The reported PMI of 48.7 suggests that the manufacturing sector is facing challenges, despite being higher than market expectations [1] - This data point may influence market sentiment and economic forecasts, as it reflects the current state of the manufacturing industry [1]