交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货93540，基差-490，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月23日铜库存增825至158575吨，上期所铜库存较上周增6416吨至95805吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，短期高位 运行 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货93755，基差-575，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月22日铜库存减2650至157750吨，上期所铜库存较上周增6416吨至95805吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，空翻多；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，短期高位 运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽 ...

每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货92480，基差-700，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月19日铜库存减3875至160400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增6416吨至95805吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货92795，基差575，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月11日铜库存增875至165850吨，上期所铜库存较上周减9025吨至88905吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 每日观点 全球政策宽 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91130，基差150，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月4日铜库存增675至162825吨，上期所铜库存较上周减12673吨至97930吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 强势运行为主 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货89150，基差-130，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月1日铜库存增0至159425吨，上期所铜库存较上周减12673吨至97930吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价高位震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The spot price is 85,870 with a basis of 210, showing a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories decreased by 2,900 to 155,025 tons on November 21, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons compared with last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, indicating a bearish signal. The main net position is long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, with inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral due to supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, liberalized scrap copper policy, and a decline in China's manufacturing PMI in October. The basis shows a premium over futures, being neutral. Inventory changes are neutral. The price trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position with decreasing long positions is bullish. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade - war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [20][22] Inventory - On November 21, copper inventories decreased by 2,900 to 155,025 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons compared with last week. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]

Report Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Industry Situation Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 86410, the basis is 280, and the premium is on the futures, showing a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On November 20, copper inventory increased by 50 to 157,925 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week, showing a neutral situation [2]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running downward, showing a bearish situation [2]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long position increases, showing a bullish situation [2]. Expectation - With inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Information - The processing fee has declined, and the bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The overall situation is neutral [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 86,510 with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures, also neutral [2]. - On November 17, copper inventories increased by 325 to 136,050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared to the previous week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, a neutral signal [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency [2]. - It is expected that with the inventory rebound and geopolitical disturbances still existing (such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia), copper prices will fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances and manufacturing slowdown, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot premium over futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventory changes, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price and moving average relationship, neutral [2]. - **Main Positions**: Net long with decreasing long positions, slightly bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: High - level price fluctuations due to inventory and geopolitics [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空 Analysis - **Leveraging Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of impact direction [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared to last week, and on November 17, copper inventory increased by 325 to 136,050 tons [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [17]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral supply - demand fundamental situation, with some disturbances on the supply side such as smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. The manufacturing PMI in China dropped to 49.0% in October. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, like the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances include smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, indicating a slowdown in production activities; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86815, with a basis of 185, showing a premium over the futures; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 11, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 136250 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1105 tons to 115035 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long and the long position increased; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [22]. Other Information - **Spot**: The document provides information on the spot including location, mid - price, change, and inventory details, but specific data is not fully disclosed [6]. - **Exchange Inventory**: Information about exchange inventory is mentioned but specific details are not provided [11]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [16].