法国国民议会表决通过2026年社会保障预算草案 中新社巴黎12月9日电 (记者 李洋)法国国民议会(议会下院)当地时间9日晚表决通过2026年社会保障预算 草案。 这份社会保障预算草案是政府提交的2026年预算草案的一部分，此前已经过国民议会多次辩论和审议， 并经过了多次修改。草案中包含了确认暂停实施退休制度改革的内容，被认为是政府对社会党等左翼政 党落实有关承诺的关键步骤。 根据当晚公布的表决结果，该草案获得247票支持，另有234票反对，最终以13票的微弱优势过关。法国 执政党阵营和社会党等党派的多数议员投票支持，而来自极右翼党派国民联盟和极左翼党派"不屈的法 兰西"的多数议员投票反对。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 法国总理勒科尔尼当晚通过社交媒体对2026年社会保障预算草案在国民议会获得表决通过表示祝贺，并 对投票支持这一草案的各党派议员表示感谢。他重申，放弃援引宪法第49.3条款、谋求推动国民议会表 决通过预算草案是能够实现的。他也积极评价这份草案，认为其"标志着法国公共财政持续恶化的局面 得以结束"。 社会保障支出占法国公共部门总体支出的四成以上，涵盖社会福利、医疗保 ...

Core Points - The European Commission announced that Germany's defense spending increase has led to an excessive deficit, but no procedures have been initiated against Germany for this issue [1] - The Commission highlighted several strategic vulnerabilities and structural challenges facing the EU, including low productivity, demographic pressures, and rising public spending demands related to defense, decarbonization, and digital economy transformation [1] - The Commission called for EU member states to maintain sound public finances and enhance competitiveness [1] Summary by Category Fiscal Outlook - The European Commission projected that the budget deficit in the Eurozone will slightly increase from 3.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, further rising to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 [2] - Finland's budget deficit is expected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2024, rising to 4.5% in 2025 and decreasing to 4.0% in 2026, prompting the need for excessive deficit procedures against Finland [1] Member States' Performance - Germany's projected budget deficit is expected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027 [1] - The European Commission emphasized that under the Stability and Growth Pact, member states' annual budget deficits should not exceed 3% of GDP, and public debt should not exceed 60% of GDP [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, highlighting the fragility of U.S. public finances [1][3] - By 2030, U.S. government debt is expected to rise over 20 percentage points, reaching 143.4% of GDP, surpassing the record set during the pandemic [1] - The annual budget deficit in the U.S. is anticipated to remain above 7% of GDP, higher than any other developed economy tracked by the International Monetary Fund [1] Comparison with Italy and Greece - Italy and Greece, historically known for their weak fiscal positions and central to the 2010-2012 Eurozone debt crisis, are expected to reduce their debt burdens by the end of the decade through strict deficit control [3] - In contrast, U.S. debt is projected to continue rising, with the Congressional Budget Office forecasting ongoing growth in U.S. debt over the coming decades [3]

Core Viewpoint - Scope Ratings has downgraded the United States' credit rating by one level to AA- due to ongoing deterioration in public finances and weakened governance standards, which have increased the risk of policy missteps and reduced the ability of Congress to address structural fiscal challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade reflects a three-level drop from the highest rating, indicating significant concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook [1][3]. - Scope Ratings' assessment is two levels lower than its larger competitors, Fitch, Moody's, and S&P Global Ratings, highlighting a divergence in credit evaluations among rating agencies [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [2][3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. general government debt will reach 140% of GDP over the next four years, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to 2025, surpassing the debt levels of any European country [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Scope Ratings has maintained a "stable" outlook for the U.S. rating, indicating a balanced risk of upgrades and downgrades over the next 12 to 18 months [2]. - The agency has expressed concerns about the potential decline in the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, which could reduce global demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The UK retail sales in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.2%, although the three-month trend indicates a decline, reflecting consumer caution that hampers economic growth plans of the Labour government [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - The July retail sales data was delayed by two weeks due to the need for "further quality assurance" by the Office for National Statistics [1] - The June retail sales growth was revised down from 0.9% to 0.3% [1] - Despite the positive July figure, retail sales have declined over the past three months, indicating ongoing consumer caution [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, and the Labour government cannot afford the consequences of continued consumer caution [1] - The UK government is striving to revive economic growth amidst rising borrowing costs and potential downward revisions of productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility [1] - Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the annual budget will be revealed on November 26, with economists estimating a need for tax increases or spending cuts of up to £51 billion (approximately $68 billion) to address the public finance shortfall [1] Group 3: Data Accuracy Concerns - Retail analysts and economists have raised concerns about the accuracy of official spending data, noting that it fails to account for seasonal variations and does not keep pace with shopping trends on social media platforms like TikTok [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising UK government bond yields due to increasing government borrowing, raising concerns about the overall fiscal health [1] - As of July, the net borrowing of the public sector was £1 billion, which was better than the consensus expectation of £3.2 billion, but the borrowing figure for June was revised up from an initial £20.7 billion to £22.6 billion, indicating a trend of increasing government debt [1] - Analysts suggest that the overall public finances in the UK remain in a state of long-term weakness, reflecting ongoing fiscal challenges [1] Group 2 - The 10-year gilt yield has increased by 2.6 basis points to 4.700%, indicating a rise in borrowing costs for the government [1]

Group 1 - The UK's budget deficit has risen to £20.7 billion ($27.9 billion), an increase of £6.6 billion compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding market expectations of £17.5 billion [1] - The surge in debt interest payments is a primary factor contributing to the increased budget deficit, raising concerns about potential tax hikes to stabilize public finances [1] - Following the report, UK government bonds experienced a decline, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 3 basis points to 4.63%, outpacing declines in German and US bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK may address its fiscal deficit by increasing tax rates and cutting government spending, as indicated by analysts from TD Securities [1] Group 1: Fiscal Situation - The UK's public finances remain fragile due to the impact of global tariffs [1] - The Labour Party's decision to cancel spending cuts on welfare legislation adds pressure to the already strained fiscal situation [1] Group 2: Budget Considerations - An additional fiscal space of £10 billion to £20 billion may be required for the upcoming autumn budget [1] - The exact figures for the fiscal space will depend on monthly tax revenues and expenditures leading up to the autumn budget [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the social processes surrounding technology, particularly focusing on the historical context of the mechanical reaper and pneumatic forming machines, highlighting how technological advancements can lead to economic changes while also exacerbating labor exploitation and wealth inequality [2][3][24]. Group 1: Historical Context and Technological Impact - The invention of the mechanical reaper by Cyrus McCormick significantly improved agricultural productivity and contributed to the industrial revolution in the United States [1]. - After McCormick's death, his successor, Cyrus McCormick Jr., reduced worker wages and replaced skilled labor with pneumatic forming machines, leading to lower quality production but higher profits [1][2]. - The use of pneumatic forming machines allowed for mass production of mechanical reapers, intensifying labor exploitation and capital accumulation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Theories and Technology - The article critiques technological determinism, which posits that technology autonomously drives social and economic changes, arguing instead that technology is influenced by political, economic, and cultural factors [4][5]. - Public funding plays a crucial role in technological advancement, as seen in the U.S. where government support has historically driven innovation in various sectors [6][7]. - The relationship between technology and economic development is complex, with public finance often not translating technological gains into broader social benefits [8][9]. Group 3: International Trade and Development - Daron Acemoglu's analysis indicates that the same technology can have different impacts on developed and developing countries, with the latter often unable to benefit from imported technologies due to mismatched labor skills [10][11]. - Global value chains allow developing countries to access technology, but the technologies introduced are often not suited for their labor markets, leading to limited economic benefits [12][13]. - The article highlights that the introduction of labor-saving technologies in developing countries can exacerbate existing inequalities and fail to create sufficient employment opportunities [14][15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion and Implications - While technological advancements can lower costs and improve efficiency, they do not guarantee economic development, as the distribution of economic benefits remains a critical issue [22][23]. - The discussion on the social processes of technology emphasizes the need for policies that ensure technological advancements contribute to broader economic and social welfare [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the idea of saving public finances by changing the tiered reserve remuneration is considered illusory by the Bank of England Governor Bailey [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects concerns about the effectiveness of altering reserve remuneration structures in achieving fiscal savings [1] - The commentary suggests a need for more realistic approaches to public finance management rather than relying on theoretical changes in reserve remuneration [1]