智通财经12月22日讯(编辑 刘蕊)美东时间周日，美国总统特朗普的首席经济顾问、白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈塞特表示，如果美国最高法院裁定废除特朗普的关税并要求退还已征收的关税，将会引发 一个重大的"行政问题"，因此他预计，特朗普政府几乎不太可能会退还已经征收的关税。 他还表示，随着美国经济的好转以及美国政府财政问题的改善，特朗普政府向美国人发放2000美元支票 的承诺已经越来越可能实现。 特朗普政府"不太可能"退回关税 美东时间周日，哈塞特在接受采访时说道： "我们确实认为最高法院会与我们站在同一立场上，"即便法院最终做出不有利于特朗普政府的裁 决，"他们也不太可能要求大规模退款，因为要落实这些退款会是个巨大的行政难题。" 目前，美国最高法院正在审议特朗普依据 1977 年《国际紧急经济权力法》对数十个国家征收的关税。 特朗普政府官员已制定预案，以防出现不利裁决时设法再度对进口征税，同时他们公开表示，法院裁决 特朗普政府败诉的可能性不大。 哈塞特表示，美国经济的持续好转增加了向众多美国人发放一次性2000美元退税支票这一计划成功的可 能性。 此前，特朗普已经多次提出这一想法——即利用关税收入来向美国人发 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is proposing a one-time "tariff dividend" of $2,000 per person for the American public, excluding high-income individuals, funded by revenue from tariffs, which Trump claims generates trillions for the federal government [2][3] Group 1: Financial Implications - The U.S. Census Bureau indicates a population of 340 million, meaning a total payout of $680 billion if every individual receives $2,000 [2] - Approximately 18% of American adults earn over $100,000 annually, suggesting that even after excluding high-income earners, the total cost of the "tariff dividend" would exceed $500 billion [2] - Tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach $195 billion, a significant increase of $118 billion from the previous fiscal year, but still far from the required funds for the proposed dividend [3] Group 2: Legal and Political Context - The legality of the proposed "tariff dividend" is under scrutiny, as the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to levy taxes, while the President's role is limited to execution and management of tax policies [4] - The Supreme Court is questioning whether the President has the authority to impose large-scale tariffs, emphasizing that taxation is a core power of Congress [5] - Officials are attempting to frame tariffs as diplomatic tools rather than revenue-generating measures, complicating the narrative surrounding the proposed dividend [6] Group 3: Economic Impact and Public Perception - Economic experts argue that the burden of tariffs will ultimately fall on American consumers and importers, potentially leading to price increases that outweigh the benefits of the proposed $2,000 payment [8] - Research indicates that during Trump's first term, tariffs led to price hikes on consumer goods, with American consumers bearing over 90% of the tariff costs [8] - The proposal for a "tariff dividend" may serve as a political strategy to counteract criticism of inflation caused by tariffs, creating a perception that protectionism equates to welfare [8][9]

喝高了吹大了，特朗普开始豪言给3亿美国人发"红包了"！ 特意自诩从关税"赚"来的钱里，给每人分上2000美元的分红，听来夸张的说法，紧急闭麦的美财长贝森特，特朗普所谓的"2000美元红 包"到底坑了谁？ 特朗普选择此时抛出"2000美元红包"并非偶然。11月5日，美国最高法院就特朗普政府关税政策的合法性举行听证会。此次听证会的结 果，可能决定特朗普贸易政策的生死存亡。 11月9日，美国总统特朗普在其"真实社交"平台上发布了一条引发全美关注的帖子："反对关税的人是傻瓜！我们现在是世界上最富有、 最受尊敬的国家...每个人将获得至少2000美元的分红（高收入人群除外）！" 然而这片喜悦气氛并未持续多久。随着各方质疑声四起，这条充满诱惑力的承诺很快显露出其真实面目，又一张难以兑现的"空头支 票"。 特朗普在帖子中描绘的完美：关税收入正为美国带来"数万亿美元"资金，这些钱不仅能偿还37万亿美元的巨额国债，还能向大多数美国 民众发放至少2000美元分红。 这不是特朗普第一次提出"关税分红"的想法。今年7月，他曾暗示可能用关税收入向民众发放退税支票，8月，他再次提到向中低收入美 国人发放"款项或红利"，10月，他将金额明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "dividends" to Americans funded by tariff revenues, amidst declining support and recent electoral losses for the Republican Party [3][5]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump's plan aims to provide $2,000 to Americans, excluding high-income individuals, funded by tariff revenues [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that implementing this plan could lead to a fiscal loss exceeding twice the tariff revenue, which is insufficient to support such large-scale payouts [4][8]. - The proposal has been made twice in 2023, indicating Trump's focus on improving his public image [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The CRFB estimates that distributing $2,000 to all Americans would result in an annual expenditure of approximately $600 billion, while the federal tariff revenue for the fiscal year was only $195 billion [8]. - If limited to 150 million adults earning less than $100,000 annually, the total payout would still reach around $300 billion, far exceeding the tariff income [8]. - Historical data suggests that large cash distributions could trigger inflation, as seen during the pandemic when stimulus checks contributed to a 40-year high inflation rate [8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is currently facing significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year [11]. - The CRFB warns that annual implementation of the dividend could increase the deficit by $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected revenue from Trump's tariffs [11]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the remaining revenue may only support dividends every seven years [11]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent polls indicate a decline in Trump's support, with a net approval rating of -18%, and significant dissatisfaction regarding his handling of inflation and economic issues [14]. - Consumer confidence has dropped, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to a three-year low, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the government shutdown [14]. - Economic analysts suggest that the current market conditions are precarious, with potential risks of recession or renewed inflation [15].

若该计划真的实施，所造成的财政损失可能达到关税收入的两倍以上。 在支持率下滑、共和党于地方选举中接连受挫之际，美国总统特朗普再度提出一项引人注目的计划：利用关税收 入向美国人发放2000美元的"分红"。 特朗普说明道，这一计划不覆盖"高收入"美国人。他还特别强调："反对关税的人都是傻瓜！" 这一承诺迅速引发广泛关注与质疑。11月10日，美国联邦预算责任委员会（CRFB）在一份分析报告中表示，若 该计划真的实施，所造成的财政损失可能达到关税收入的两倍以上。报告强调，关税收入本身远不足以支撑如此 大规模的分红支出，反而可能加剧美国本已严峻的财政压力。 值得注意的是，这已是特朗普今年内第二次提出类似主张。早在7月，他就曾表示政府正考虑利用任内征收的数十 亿美元关税向民众发放小额退款。 在这一政策提议背后，是特朗普对其公众形象的深切关注。英国新宏睿投资管理公司创始人兼董事总经理夏宇宸 在接受第一财经记者采访时表示："特朗普并不忌惮其他东西，他在意的是自己在美国民众心中的形象。他的权力 根基，很大程度上建立于其所展示的强有力姿态。" 最新民调数据显示，特朗普当前面临的舆论环境并不乐观。根据民调机构YouGov的数据，他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's proposal to distribute a one-time $2,000 "tariff dividend" to citizens raises questions about its feasibility and legality, especially in light of the significant costs involved and the ongoing Supreme Court review of tariff policies [1][3][5]. Financial Implications - The total cost of distributing $2,000 to the entire U.S. population of approximately 340 million would amount to $680 billion, and even after excluding high-income earners, the cost would still exceed $500 billion [1]. - The projected tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is $195 billion, which is a significant increase of $118 billion from the previous fiscal year, but still insufficient to cover the proposed dividend [1][2]. Legal Considerations - The legality of the proposed "tariff dividend" is under scrutiny, as the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to levy taxes, while the President's authority to impose tariffs is being challenged in the Supreme Court [3]. - Officials are attempting to frame tariffs as diplomatic tools rather than revenue-generating measures, complicating the legal landscape surrounding the proposed dividend [3]. Public Sentiment and Economic Impact - Surveys indicate that the American public does not support the current economic and trade policies, suggesting that the proposed dividend may not garner the intended support for the government's tariff strategy [4]. - The burden of tariffs is likely to be passed on to American consumers through increased prices, potentially negating the benefits of the proposed $2,000 payment [5]. Political Strategy - The proposal for a "tariff dividend" may be a strategic move to counteract criticism of the negative economic impacts of tariffs, creating a perception that protectionist policies can provide benefits to the public [5][6]. - The approach of taxing citizens and then offering rebates or cash payments is described as a common political tactic in the U.S. [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is proposing a one-time "tariff dividend" of $2,000 per person for citizens outside the high-income group, funded by tariffs collected from trade, raising questions about the legality and feasibility of such a policy [1][3]. Financial Implications - The total cost of distributing $2,000 to the entire U.S. population of approximately 340 million would amount to $680 billion, and even after excluding high-income earners, the cost would still exceed $500 billion [1]. - The projected tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is $195 billion, which is a significant increase of $118 billion from the previous fiscal year, but still insufficient to cover the proposed dividend [1]. Legal Considerations - The legality of the proposed "tariff dividend" is under scrutiny, as the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to levy taxes, while the President's authority to impose tariffs is being challenged in the Supreme Court [3]. - Officials are attempting to frame tariffs as diplomatic tools rather than revenue-generating measures, complicating the legal landscape surrounding the proposed dividend [3]. Economic Impact - Scholars argue that the burden of tariffs will not disappear but will instead be passed on to consumers through higher prices, potentially negating the benefits of the proposed cash payments [5]. - Research indicates that during Trump's first term, tariffs led to increased prices for consumer goods, with U.S. importers and consumers bearing over 90% of the tariff costs [5]. Political Strategy - The proposal for a "tariff dividend" may be a strategic move to regain public support for the administration's trade policies, especially among lower-income groups, by creating the illusion that protectionism equates to welfare [5][6]. - The Wall Street Journal critiques the approach of using cash payments to placate public discontent over high taxes, labeling it a common political tactic [6].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding a plan to distribute "at least" $2000 in tariff "dividends" to most Americans has led to a moderate increase in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum [1] Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rise of approximately 1.75%, surpassing $103,000 [1] - Ethereum (ETH) saw an increase of about 3.32%, exceeding $3,487 [1] - This price increase occurred after a generally weak weekly market performance, with the CoinDesk 20 index recovering from a nearly 15% weekly decline [1] Legislative Considerations - Experts indicate that the proposed payment plan requires Congressional approval to be implemented [1] - Current tariff revenues are significantly lower than the funds needed for the proposed payments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is reportedly receiving "hundreds of billions" in tariff revenue, significantly exceeding historical levels, which President Trump suggests could be distributed as cash payments to citizens [1] Group 1: Cash Distribution Proposal - Trump has proposed that part of the tariff revenue could be used to issue cash payments, potentially targeting low- to middle-income groups [1] - Republican Senator Hawley has introduced a bill proposing at least $600 cash payments to U.S. adults, with an additional $600 for each child in qualifying families [1] Group 2: Previous Discussions and Progress - Discussions regarding cash "dividend checks" for Americans have not made substantial progress, despite earlier proposals from the Trump administration to return 20% of saved federal spending to the public [2] - The plan to distribute these funds is currently managed by the DOGE service department, but there are no indications of advancement, and the White House has not responded to recent media inquiries [2]