智通财经12月22日讯(编辑 刘蕊)美东时间周日，美国总统特朗普的首席经济顾问、白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈塞特表示，如果美国最高法院裁定废除特朗普的关税并要求退还已征收的关税，将会引发 一个重大的"行政问题"，因此他预计，特朗普政府几乎不太可能会退还已经征收的关税。 他还表示，随着美国经济的好转以及美国政府财政问题的改善，特朗普政府向美国人发放2000美元支票 的承诺已经越来越可能实现。 特朗普政府"不太可能"退回关税 美东时间周日，哈塞特在接受采访时说道： "我们确实认为最高法院会与我们站在同一立场上，"即便法院最终做出不有利于特朗普政府的裁 决，"他们也不太可能要求大规模退款，因为要落实这些退款会是个巨大的行政难题。" 目前，美国最高法院正在审议特朗普依据 1977 年《国际紧急经济权力法》对数十个国家征收的关税。 特朗普政府官员已制定预案，以防出现不利裁决时设法再度对进口征税，同时他们公开表示，法院裁决 特朗普政府败诉的可能性不大。 哈塞特表示，美国经济的持续好转增加了向众多美国人发放一次性2000美元退税支票这一计划成功的可 能性。 此前，特朗普已经多次提出这一想法——即利用关税收入来向美国人发 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court will hold oral arguments on November 5 regarding the legality of President Trump's global tariff plan, which is a significant test of his economic and trade policies [1] - The case centers on whether Trump exceeded presidential authority and misused the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1] - If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the U.S. Treasury may have to refund approximately half of the collected tariff revenues, potentially leading to a financial burden on federal finances [1] Group 1: Impact on Companies - If the court overturns some tariffs, companies may apply for refunds, which could provide short-term financial benefits and improve earnings [2] - However, consumers may not see immediate price reductions as companies have already absorbed or shifted costs due to tariffs [2] - Companies will face operational challenges in confirming refund eligibility and managing potential "tariff vacuum periods" before new policies are established [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Wall Street analysts predict that stocks of companies closely related to tariffs may rise in the short term due to market expectations, but long-term uncertainty remains high [2] - Even if tariffs are overturned, consumers are unlikely to benefit immediately during the holiday shopping season due to prior inventory purchases [2] Group 3: Alternative Measures - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, the White House may quickly implement alternative measures, such as temporary tariffs under the Trade Act of 1974, but these would be limited in duration and complexity [3] - The Trump administration may seek legislative support from Congress for tariffs, but this approach carries higher risks due to the unpopularity of tariff policies [4] Group 4: Specific Case of Swiss Tariffs - The Trump administration recently imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss exports, leading to a significant drop in Swiss exports to the U.S., particularly in watches and gold [4] - The trade deficit with Switzerland has narrowed to its lowest level since 2020, indicating a direct impact of the tariff policy [4]