0 二五年 2025 年 11月 24 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、市场回顾与展望:上周市场回落,沪指周跌幅甚至超过４月7日当周。板块方面,电力设备、综 合、基础化工跌幅居前;银行、传媒、食品饮料跌幅最小。行情调整驱动来自于内外两方面。外部来看, 纳指创 4 月来最大三周跌幅。美联储纪要显示,"不愿意 12 月降息"的委员数量超过了"愿意降息"的委 员。市场对美联储 12月降息预期进一步降低。AI 泡沫担忧延续,英伟达财报发布后出现"利好出尽"走 势。谷歌大模型能力超越 OpenAI,AI 产业博弈仍在深化。日本股债汇三杀。比特币走低,全球风险资产 共振回调。国内来看,地缘局势存在不确定性,国内政策面预期偏平,导致行情顺应外部波动而回落。 边际来看,美联储开始发声安抚市场。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五发出支持降息信号,联邦基金期货 显示的降息概率从低于 30%反弹至 60%以上。周末数字货币已出现反弹。有利于全球风险资产环境改善。 本周继续关注陆续补发的美国经济数据对 12月降息预期的指引。就Ａ股市场而言。国内政策方向对市场 预期的影响依然重要,关注1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the more certain non-ferrous metals and precious metals. Consider buying precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news keeps emerging, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. China and the US reached a three - point consensus on economic and trade, and China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8; exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI reached the highest since March 2024. PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. The central bank proposed to view financial aggregate indicators scientifically. New social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap widened. On November 13, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher [1] - The US liquidity risk has eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. The US government shutdown ended. The six - week shutdown is estimated to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, causing a net loss of about $11 billion. The US ISM manufacturing index in October dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties about the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is relatively loose, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, and urea. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. After the short - term sharp adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, consider buying on dips. On November 13, spot gold broke through $4,220 per ounce, up 0.61% on the day [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Key News - As of the end of October, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 274.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. The balance of foreign currency loans was $554.6 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In the first ten months, foreign currency loans increased by $1.25 billion [5] - As of the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In the first ten months, net cash injection was 728.4 billion yuan. The social financing scale increment in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - On November 12, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump said the shutdown cost $1.5 trillion, and it will take weeks or months to calculate the overall impact. After the government re - opened, he will continue to promote measures such as reducing the cost of living, restoring public safety, and promoting economic growth, and emphasized the "big and beautiful" bill will bring the "largest - ever tax cuts" [5] - Spot gold broke through $4,220 per ounce on November 13, up 0.61% on the day [3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].

Core Insights - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets exhibited a mixed but generally strong performance, with A-shares seeing all major indices slightly rise and over 3,500 stocks gaining, indicating active market participation [1][3] - Key sectors driving the market include media, coal, and oil & petrochemicals, with AI applications and short drama games contributing to market sentiment recovery, while non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and lithium battery chains faced notable adjustments [1][4] - The Hong Kong market showed stronger performance, with major indices rising, driven by energy, finance, and consumer sectors, alongside continued inflow of southbound funds and increased foreign investment interest [1][5] Market Overview - A-shares saw a collective rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.55% to 3976.52 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw minor increases of 0.19% and 0.29% respectively, with a trading volume of 2.11 trillion yuan [3] - The Hong Kong market's Hang Seng Index increased by 0.97% to 26158.36 points, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also showing nearly a 1% rise, reflecting strong performance in energy and finance sectors [3][5] - The market is characterized by a rotation from high-priced themes to undervalued value stocks, while structural opportunities within the tech growth sector remain attractive [3][4] Sector Analysis - A-share sectors displayed significant divergence, with energy and AI applications as dual main lines; the coal sector saw a 10.29% increase in coking coal prices over 60 days, indicating the beginning of a new upward cycle [4] - The oil and petrochemical sectors strengthened due to OPEC+ announcing a production halt in Q1 2026, leading to tighter global energy supply expectations [4] - The media sector benefited from active AI applications, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, enhancing market sentiment [4] Investment Recommendations - The current market phase is critical for "policy implementation" and "fund rebalancing," with a focus on industry trends and policy benefits to capture structural opportunities [6][7] - In the tech growth sector, emphasis should be placed on "hard tech breakthroughs + soft ecosystem implementation," particularly in AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The cyclical and resource sectors should leverage "global easing expectations + policy-driven recovery," with specific attention to gold and copper in the non-ferrous metals sector, and coal and oil sectors benefiting from energy security strategies [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a split between strong expectations and weak reality, with increased economic pressure in August and recent frequent mentions of growth - stabilizing policies, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, and attention to policy expectations and the correction of the off - season - like peak season expectations. China's September economic data such as exports, imports, new social financing, and CPI showed positive trends [1]. - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st [2]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [3]. - In the commodity market, focus on gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors, and consider multi - allocating industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in August showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and external tariff pressure increased. In September, exports and imports exceeded expectations, new social financing and new RMB loans increased, and the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed [1]. - On October 16th, the A - share market fluctuated, with the coal sector rising, the shipping and port sector pulling up, and the storage chip concept remaining active [1][6]. Tariff Friction - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated, with the US adding tariffs on Chinese products and listing Chinese companies on the entity list, and China taking counter - measures such as export controls on rare earths and charging special port fees for US ships [2]. US Government Shutdown - The US Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and the US judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from laying off employees during the "shutdown". Multiple US economic data releases were delayed, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [3]. Commodity Market - In the commodity market, focus on gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, the energy supply is considered to be moderately loose in the medium - term, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations, and gold is expected to continue to strengthen [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, multi - allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. A - Share Market - On October 16th, the A - share market fluctuated, with more stocks falling than rising, and sectors such as coal, shipping and ports, and storage chips performing actively, while some concept stocks such as lithography machines and controllable nuclear fusion adjusted [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]