农林牧渔 chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 周观察：供给压力后置春节前后猪价承压，海外禽流感引发祖代引种暂停 均重维持高位叠加二育回升积累供给压力，春节前后猪价回落风险抬升。据涌 益咨询，截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，全国生猪均价 12.92 元/公斤，周环比+0.15 元 /公斤，同比-2.40 元/公斤，期间一度冲高至 13.30 元/公斤，体现节前补库带来 的阶段性供需博弈。供给端，出栏均重均重未见回落，供给兑现或将集中于春 节前后，叠加二育栏舍利用率回升至 38%形成"抽水"效应，对价格构成短期支 撑，供给压力后置。需求端，白条价修复至 17.15 元/公斤，毛白价差扩大至 4.09 元/公斤，屠宰端利润改善但量端未起，需求表现偏"价强"而非"量强"。结 构侧肥标差走扩至 0.74 元/公斤，大猪端未见转松；库存端冻品库容率持续下 行，去库验证终端承接改善，当前"价强量缩"更偏供给收缩与结构偏紧驱动。 展望后市，短期看节前备货与白条价格修复叠加冻品持续去库，价格仍有韧 性；但均重未降与二育回升使得供给压力后置，春节前后供给释放风险上升， 猪价存在回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese agricultural insurance sector is heavily supported by government subsidies, with nearly 80% of premiums coming from fiscal support, and is projected to exceed 155 billion yuan in premiums by 2025, providing risk coverage of over 5.2 trillion yuan for 125 million farming households [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Development - Since 2007, the central government has supported agricultural insurance through premium subsidies, marking one of the earliest fiscal-financial collaborative policies in China [1]. - China's agricultural insurance premium scale ranks first globally, playing a crucial role in stabilizing farmers' income and ensuring national food security, supporting a grain production level of over 1.4 trillion jin [1]. Group 2: Insurance Coverage and Benefits - The agricultural insurance system has been continuously improved, with various departments collaborating to establish a comprehensive framework tailored to China's conditions [1]. - The insurance coverage for major agricultural products like grains, oils, and sugars is designed to fully cover costs or planting income, while local specialty products benefit from national subsidy policies [2]. - Farmers have received over 520 billion yuan in compensation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiding recovery from natural disasters [2]. Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance the quality and efficiency of agricultural insurance and will issue guiding documents in 2026 to promote high-quality development in this sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in China to promote high-quality economic and social development, emphasizing increased fiscal spending, optimized expenditure structure, improved efficiency, and stronger economic momentum [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on "increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum" [4]. - "Increasing total volume" involves expanding the fiscal expenditure to ensure necessary spending levels, maintaining fiscal deficit and debt at necessary levels, and ensuring that key areas receive strong support [5]. - "Optimizing structure" aims to improve the expenditure structure by applying zero-based budgeting, reducing ineffective spending, and directing more funds towards consumption, human investment, and social welfare [5]. - "Improving efficiency" focuses on enhancing the effectiveness of fund usage, ensuring that every penny generates expected benefits, and optimizing the management of special bonds [5]. - "Enhancing momentum" includes deepening fiscal and tax reforms to stimulate economic vitality, improving transfer payment structures, and enhancing local fiscal capabilities [6]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Promotion - The policy framework includes "one goal," "two focuses," "three principles," and "six policies," with the primary goal being to "expand domestic demand" [8]. - The two focuses are to "stimulate private investment" and "promote household consumption," both crucial components of domestic demand [8]. - The three principles for execution are convenience and efficiency, precision and effectiveness, and standardization and improvement [9]. - The six policies include various loan interest subsidy programs aimed at supporting small and micro enterprises, private investment, and consumer spending [9]. Group 3: Support for Innovation and Technology - The fiscal department will support the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund to invest early, small, long-term, and in hard technology, focusing on original and disruptive technological advancements [10]. - There will be enhanced support for key industries to upgrade quality, with fiscal incentives for technology innovation loans and central bank re-lending support [10]. - The emphasis will be on strengthening the role of enterprises in technological innovation and implementing structural tax reductions to support innovation and manufacturing [11]. Group 4: Fiscal Subsidy Regulation - The fiscal department will continue to deepen fiscal and tax system reforms to clarify fiscal responsibilities and improve the central-local fiscal relationship [13]. - There will be ongoing efforts to standardize fiscal subsidies, with a focus on correcting any irregular subsidy practices and enhancing regulatory frameworks [13]. - The government procurement order will be optimized, including amendments to procurement laws and policies favoring domestic products [13]. Group 5: Consumer Loan Subsidy Enhancements - The consumer loan subsidy policy has been optimized to increase the subsidy limits for individual consumers and expand the coverage of eligible consumption areas [15]. - The implementation period for the consumer loan subsidy policies has been extended to the end of 2026, with potential for further extensions based on effectiveness [15]. - The number of institutions eligible for these subsidies has increased significantly, enhancing accessibility for consumers and businesses [15]. Group 6: Green Development and Industry Adjustment - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies, particularly for solar products, is aimed at promoting efficient resource use and reducing environmental pollution [16][17]. - This adjustment is expected to facilitate reasonable industrial structure adjustments and promote high-quality economic development [17]. Group 7: Agricultural Insurance Development - In 2026, the fiscal department will issue guidelines to promote high-quality development of agricultural insurance, focusing on refined management and multi-faceted collaboration [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance agricultural insurance quality and efficiency, with a guiding document expected in 2026 to support rural revitalization and national food security [1] Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Development - The Ministry of Finance will collaborate with relevant parties to continuously promote the improvement and reform of agricultural insurance [1] - A guiding document aimed at accelerating high-quality development of agricultural insurance will be introduced in 2026 [1] - The focus of the upcoming document will be on refined management of agricultural insurance and diversified collaboration [1] Group 2: Support for Rural and Food Security - The initiatives are intended to stabilize farmers' income and support comprehensive rural revitalization [1] - The measures will contribute to ensuring national food security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese agricultural insurance sector is heavily supported by government subsidies, with nearly 80% of premiums coming from fiscal support, and the growth rate of these subsidies is consistently in double digits [1] Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Premiums and Support - By 2025, the scale of agricultural insurance premiums in China is expected to exceed 155 billion yuan, providing risk protection for over 125 million farming households amounting to more than 5.2 trillion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue promoting the quality and efficiency of agricultural insurance, alongside deepening reforms [1] Group 2: Future Developments and Guidelines - In 2026, a guiding document will be released to accelerate the high-quality development of agricultural insurance, focusing on refined management and diversified collaboration [1] - The upcoming initiatives aim to stabilize farmers' income, support comprehensive rural revitalization, and ensure national food security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration has responded to various proposals from the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, outlining directions for enhancing the quality of agricultural insurance development, including revisions to the Agricultural Insurance Regulations, integration of agricultural data, and the promotion of green agricultural insurance [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Regulation Revisions - The Financial Regulatory Administration acknowledges the importance of revising the Agricultural Insurance Regulations to adapt to changing conditions and improve the agricultural insurance system, which has been in place since March 1, 2013, and was revised in 2016 [2]. - The existing legal framework for agricultural insurance is deemed relatively complete and has proven effective in stabilizing farmers' incomes and supporting modern agricultural development [2]. Group 2: Integration of Agricultural Data - The administration is focused on enhancing the technological capabilities of agricultural insurance through the integration of various data sources, including big data, satellite remote sensing, and GPS technology, to improve underwriting and claims processes [3]. - Future efforts will involve collaboration with relevant departments to strengthen the national agricultural insurance information management platform, promoting data sharing and optimizing risk management services [3]. Group 3: Green Agricultural Insurance - The Financial Regulatory Administration is promoting the establishment of a green agricultural insurance service system aimed at supporting sustainable agricultural development and mitigating ecological risks [4]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to collaborate with research institutions to develop risk assessment models based on big data and remote sensing technology, enhancing the precision of risk evaluations [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Employment Insurance - The administration is guiding insurance companies to develop products that address employment risks, including various employer liability insurances, to support flexible employment in the agricultural sector [5][6]. - The focus is on providing better insurance coverage for flexible workers in agriculture, ensuring that insurance products are designed to meet the specific needs of different industries and job types [6].

Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the strategic deployment of agricultural policies and insurance to enhance food security and support rural development in China, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Strategic Focus - The Central Rural Work Conference has outlined key tasks for 2026, including enhancing grain production capacity, improving disaster prevention capabilities, and establishing mechanisms to prevent poverty [1]. - The insurance industry is expected to play a crucial role in supporting these agricultural initiatives, reflecting a significant shift in its responsibilities [1]. Group 2: Role of Agricultural Insurance - Agricultural insurance has become an essential part of China's modern agricultural risk management system, providing risk coverage to 800 million households during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - The implementation of comprehensive cost insurance for major grains has achieved nationwide coverage, significantly increasing the average insurance amount per acre [2]. Group 3: Technological Integration in Agricultural Insurance - The integration of technology, such as AI, big data, and blockchain, is transforming agricultural insurance services and risk management, enhancing efficiency and transparency [4][5]. - Innovative products like weather index insurance and high-standard farmland quality insurance are being developed to address various agricultural risks [3][4]. Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations for Agricultural Insurance - Despite progress, agricultural insurance faces challenges such as imprecise premium rates and a lack of standardized regulations, which hinder its effectiveness [7][8]. - Recommendations include establishing a robust service network for agricultural insurance and developing unified technical standards for underwriting and claims processes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration has responded to various proposals from the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, outlining directions for the high-quality development of agricultural insurance, including revisions to the Agricultural Insurance Regulations and the establishment of a green agricultural insurance service system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Regulation Revisions - The Financial Regulatory Administration acknowledges the need for a comprehensive evaluation process regarding the current agricultural insurance legal framework, which has proven to be suitable for China's conditions since the implementation of the Agricultural Insurance Regulations in 2013 [1]. - There have been multiple discussions regarding the revision of the Agricultural Insurance Regulations, with further in-depth research planned [1]. Group 2: Technological Integration in Agricultural Insurance - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to collaborate with relevant departments to enhance the integration and application of agricultural data, aiming to build a national agricultural insurance information management platform for data sharing [2]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to increase investment in technological innovation to improve precision in insurance underwriting and claims management, thereby enhancing risk management capabilities [2]. Group 3: Green Agricultural Insurance Development - The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes the importance of green agricultural insurance in promoting sustainable agricultural development and mitigating ecological risks through insurance mechanisms [2]. - Insurance companies are being guided to explore practices that incorporate new technologies, such as satellite remote sensing and mobile data collection, to create efficient and interconnected agricultural insurance data resources [2]. Group 4: Employment Risk Mitigation through Insurance - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to provide better insurance coverage for flexible employment, including agricultural positions, and to standardize the development of various employer liability insurance products [3]. - The insurance industry is encouraged to design products that meet the specific needs of different industries and job types, ensuring fair and adequate pricing while expanding coverage [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration has responded to various proposals from the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, outlining directions for the high-quality development of agricultural insurance, including the revision of the Agricultural Insurance Regulations and the enhancement of green agricultural insurance [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Regulation Revision - The Financial Regulatory Administration acknowledges the importance of revising the Agricultural Insurance Regulations to enhance the agricultural insurance system, which was first implemented in March 2013 and revised in 2016, establishing a legal framework for agricultural insurance in China [2][3]. - The existing agricultural insurance legal framework has proven effective and aligns with China's national conditions, leading to significant growth in the sector since the implementation of the regulations [3]. Group 2: Technological Integration in Agricultural Insurance - The Financial Regulatory Administration is promoting the integration of technology in agricultural insurance, enhancing underwriting and claims processes through the use of big data, satellite remote sensing, and other advanced technologies [4][5]. - A nationwide agricultural insurance information management platform is being developed to facilitate data sharing among insurance institutions, thereby improving risk management capabilities [5]. Group 3: Green Agricultural Insurance Development - The Financial Regulatory Administration is focusing on establishing a green agricultural insurance service system that supports sustainable agricultural development and ecological risk management through insurance mechanisms [6]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to collaborate with research institutions to develop risk assessment models based on big data and remote sensing technology, improving the precision of risk evaluations [6][7]. Group 4: Agricultural Employment Insurance Products - The Financial Regulatory Administration is guiding insurance companies to develop agricultural employment insurance products to mitigate employment risks, particularly for flexible employment in the agricultural sector [8]. - Employer liability insurance has become an important supplement to the labor protection system, addressing the needs of new employment forms and contributing to social stability [8].

Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Development - The first commercial wheat seedling rate insurance in China was launched in five major wheat-producing counties in Henan, addressing concerns about late sowing and providing compensation for inadequate seedling rates [2][3] - Agricultural insurance in China is significant, with 1.5 billion households covered and an insurance amount of 5.22 trillion yuan for 2024, showing a 10.06% increase in claims paid [3] - The need for high-quality agricultural insurance development is emphasized to manage risks from natural disasters and economic uncertainties, focusing on precise coverage and efficient service processes [2][5] Group 2: Technological Innovations in Insurance - Central China Agricultural Insurance developed a wheat seedling rate insurance using satellite remote sensing NDVI index for accurate assessment of seedling conditions, automating claims when the index falls below a set threshold [4] - The use of AI and remote sensing technologies is being promoted to enhance the efficiency and quality of agricultural insurance, transitioning from traditional methods to data-driven assessments [5][10] - China Pacific Insurance has implemented a crop monitoring platform that reduces economic losses from diseases like wheat scab by providing timely warnings and agricultural advice [9][10] Group 3: Support for Specialty Crops - The insurance industry is actively supporting the development of specialty crops, such as the pomelo in Guangdong, by providing risk coverage against natural disasters and optimizing claims processes [6][7] - Innovative insurance products like price index insurance for pomelos have been introduced to protect farmers from market price fluctuations, demonstrating a shift from product-based to price-based insurance [7][8] - The integration of financial services with agricultural production is being explored to enhance the resilience and profitability of specialty crop farmers [7][8]