1647年5月，新荷兰殖民地的最后一任总督彼得·史岱文森抵达北美洲的新阿姆斯特丹，他认为管理这片土地是上帝赋予的使命。此前，他在与西班牙人的战 争中失去了右臂，但奇迹般地保住了生命。为了防御新英格兰殖民地的英军，1653年，他在城市的北部边界下令挖掘护城河，并用泥土和木栅栏建立了防御 墙。11年后，英国人接管了这片土地，并将其更名为纽约。这堵墙存在了46年，直到1699年才被拆除，原址上建起了一条蜿蜒的街道，那就是今天的华尔 街。 随着时间的推移，北美殖民地摆脱了英国的控制，逐步成为世界强国，而华尔街也从一堵防御墙逐渐发展成全球金融资本的中心。华尔街的兴衰与美 国的命运息息相关，紧密相连。 一、华尔街的起源与早期发展 欧洲殖民者踏上北美洲后，发现纽约是一个天然的深水港，哈德逊河水流宽广且深，能够与大西洋形成优良的航道。而且， 纽约港外的长岛地理位置得天独厚，为曼哈顿区提供了避风的庇护，方便船只停靠。由于这个优势，殖民者的船只常常在这里卸货，华尔街周围逐渐发展成 了一个临时仓库的集散地，其中也包括了一个特殊的货物——奴隶。 北方的工商业迅速发展，催生出一批优秀的银行家，他们为北方联邦军提供了大量的战争资金，直接 ...

《亚洲时报》12月9日报道：特朗普政府最近发布的《国家防务战略》，在"确保美国继续保持全球第一 大经济体地位"这一点上，与前几任政府并没有太大的区别。简单来说，这份战略继续沿用了美国多年 来的两党共识：美国必须永远坐稳名义GDP第一的位置，而中国最好永远停留在第二的位置。然而，这 一立场完全是美国的一厢情愿。 一、两党共识的真面目 特朗普是一个大家都熟悉的人物。2025年，他将重新入主白宫，而他的风格依 旧是我们熟知的"特朗普味"——依靠推特治国、直言不讳、喜欢与媒体争锋。在国际事务中，特朗普上 任后便退出了一些国际组织，重新谈判了多个贸易协定，对中国更是采取了强硬态度，展现出一副"全 面开战"的姿态。 关税不断上调，科技领域的封锁清单也不断增加，像芯片、人工智能、量子计算等前 沿领域，几乎都被划上了"红线"。如果仅仅从这些动作来看，许多人会认为特朗普在试图将中美关系推 到不可挽回的地步。尽管中美经历了五轮经贸磋商，关税战暂时休战一年，并且特朗普还表示"预计明 年4月将访问中国"，但他在12月初发布的《国家防务战略》依然保持了既定的立场。 回顾一下民主党拜登政府的做法，甚至更早的奥巴马和小布什政府时期，你会发 ...

注：本文发表于《财贸经济》2025年第5期，转载请注明出处。为方便阅读，此版本省略了技术细节、参考文献与脚注。全文请参见中国知网。 内容提要：使用1960—2021年全球191个经济体数据，本文系统考察了实际汇率升值对经济总量赶超的作用。研究发现，第一，实际汇率小幅升值（约4% 左右）不仅有助于国内经济增长，而且在统计层对经济赶超起到拉动作用；第二，经济增长是实现经济赶超的根本手段，对经济赶超的贡献度接近80%， 实际汇率的贡献度约为20%；第三，在经济增长较快时期，实际汇率发挥着更大的正向作用，此时经济体呈现出名义汇率适度贬值、适度通货膨胀和实际 汇率适度升值的组合。而在危机时期，实际汇率大幅贬值会拖累经济赶超速度；第四，经济增速较低、名义汇率大幅波动及高通胀的国家容易陷入"中等 收入陷阱"；第五，与日韩相比，中国在跨越"中等收入陷阱"前经济增速就明显回落，面临更大的赶超压力。 二、文献综述 实际汇率是宏观经济中最重要的相对价格。尽管受货币中性假设影响，传统宏观经济模型并未突出实际汇率的作用，但实际汇率与经济增长之间有着纷繁 复杂的关系，且近年来随着"罗德里克新论"的出现，有关实际汇率与经济增长关系的讨论重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of development theories and practices across different historical contexts, emphasizing the need for innovative and adaptive approaches to economic development in response to changing global conditions [1][2][14][15]. Group 1: Historical Context of Development Theories - The transition to capitalism and industrialization in Western countries set a precedent for economic development, leading to the emergence of various economic theories that influenced global policies [1]. - Post-World War II, development economics emerged to address the urgent economic development needs of newly independent nations, drawing from Western industrialization experiences [2]. - Structuralism dominated development economics from the 1940s to the 1960s, advocating for government intervention and capital accumulation, but faced challenges in the 1970s leading to stagnation in developing countries [2]. Group 2: Shift to Neoliberalism - The rise of neoliberal economic theories in the 1980s, particularly the "Washington Consensus," promoted market liberalization and reduced government intervention, which ultimately led to significant failures in many developing nations [2]. - The period termed the "lost two decades" for developing countries highlighted the inadequacies of applying Western industrialization models to diverse economic contexts [2]. Group 3: New Development Concepts - The introduction of new development concepts by Xi Jinping emphasizes innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing as essential for high-quality economic growth [14]. - These new concepts aim to address the contradictions and challenges faced by China in the context of rapid development and changing global dynamics, moving beyond traditional development paradigms [14][15]. - The new development philosophy is positioned as a solution to contemporary global issues such as economic inequality, environmental degradation, and the challenges of globalization [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's unique economic model, which diverges from Western economic theories, particularly in its approach to crisis management and economic stability. It emphasizes China's ability to implement counter-cyclical measures to stabilize the economy during global downturns, contrasting this with the Western reliance on market self-correction. Group 1: Economic Management - China employs counter-cyclical measures during global crises, such as fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment, to stabilize the economy [5][12][42] - The Chinese government initiated a 3.6 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure to counteract economic downturns [5][12] - Historical examples include the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, where China successfully avoided economic collapse through strategic investments [7][15][42] Group 2: Global Economic Relations - China's integration into the global economy has evolved from passive participation to active investment and acquisition of foreign assets [1][26] - The shift in U.S.-China relations post-2010, with the U.S. designating China as a strategic competitor, has led to increased trade and technology tensions [2][25] - The article highlights the risks associated with deep integration into globalization, particularly in light of potential supply chain disruptions [26][27] Group 3: Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation - The article outlines China's strategic focus on rural revitalization and poverty alleviation as part of its domestic economic policy [30][31] - By 2020, China achieved the goal of eliminating rural poverty, showcasing the effectiveness of state-led initiatives [17][18] - Investments in rural infrastructure and agriculture are seen as essential for maintaining economic stability and addressing food security [32][34] Group 4: Financial Strategy - China's financial strategy emphasizes directing resources to the real economy rather than speculative financial markets, contrasting with U.S. approaches during crises [22][42] - The government has consistently prioritized financial support for manufacturing and infrastructure, particularly during economic downturns [20][22] - High savings rates in China are viewed as a buffer against economic uncertainty, providing stability in times of crisis [23]

Group 1: Tanzania's Economic Vision - Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan announced the "Vision 2050," aiming for a GDP exceeding $1 trillion and a per capita GDP of $7,000 by 2050, which requires an annual nominal GDP growth rate of 6.8% [1] - The vision includes strategic pillars and industrial policies focusing on logistics, energy, technology, digital transformation, and nine key sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and mining to create jobs and boost exports [1] - The announcement may be politically motivated ahead of the upcoming elections in October 2025, as it lacks specific strategies and pathways for implementation [1] Group 2: Development Challenges in Southern Countries - Many Southern countries, like Tanzania, face significant challenges in achieving rapid economic development, often falling into the "middle-income trap" as defined by World Bank economists [3][4] - The "Washington Consensus" proposed by international organizations has had limited success in guiding economic reforms in developing countries, contrasting with the successful policies of East Asian economies [5][6] - The lack of innovation capacity and persistent issues such as inequality, poor education, and inadequate infrastructure hinder sustained economic growth in many Southern nations [4][6] Group 3: Lessons from China's Economic Policies - China's economic growth, with an average GDP growth rate of 8.9% from 1978 to 2024, serves as a potential model for Southern countries aiming for rapid development [8] - Key differences between China's policies and the "Washington Consensus" include a significant state-owned sector and active government participation in economic activities, including industrial policies [8][9] - The pragmatic approach of Chinese reforms emphasizes adapting policies to local conditions rather than strictly following theoretical models, which could provide valuable insights for other Southern nations [21][24] Group 4: Global South Consensus - The "Washington Consensus" is becoming outdated, as both Southern countries and Northern nations like the U.S. have moved away from its principles, highlighting the need for a new framework for economic development [20][26] - A proposed "Global South Consensus" aims to establish basic principles for economic policy that are tailored to the unique circumstances of Southern countries, focusing on market-driven resource allocation and pragmatic government intervention [23][24] - Successful experiences from East Asian economies, particularly China, can inform the development of this consensus, emphasizing the importance of context-specific policies and the balance between market and government roles [21][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "thought colonialism" as a strategy employed by the United States to exert ideological influence globally, revealing its historical roots and the serious international consequences of such actions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Development - The seeds of American thought colonialism were planted as early as the late 18th century, with actions like the westward expansion and the Monroe Doctrine, which aimed to establish U.S. dominance in Latin America [2]. - Post-World War II, the U.S. linked economic aid to ideological promotion through initiatives like the Marshall Plan, solidifying its influence over capitalist nations and countering Soviet power [2]. - The Cold War era saw the U.S. intensifying its ideological export through media outlets like Voice of America, which disseminated narratives promoting the "free world" [3]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Thought Colonialism - The U.S. employs a complex, multi-layered system for thought colonialism, characterized by government-led strategies, media manipulation, and collaboration with allies [4][5]. - A dual approach of promoting American values while undermining local cultures is evident, with the U.S. using both constructive and destructive tactics to achieve its goals [3][5]. - The U.S. has developed a sophisticated communication network that includes traditional media, digital platforms, and cultural exports to shape global narratives and perceptions [5][6]. Group 3: International Consequences - American thought colonialism has led to the erosion of local ideologies and the destabilization of governments, with the U.S. attempting to overthrow over 50 foreign governments since World War II [7][8]. - The strategy has also involved inciting geopolitical conflicts by spreading misinformation, as seen in the lead-up to the Iraq War [8]. - The long-term impact includes the loss of cultural identity in developing nations, where local elites may adopt pro-American stances, undermining their countries' sovereignty [9][10]. Group 4: Global Response and Future Outlook - There is a growing awareness and resistance among global South countries against American thought colonialism, with calls for independent development and cultural exchange gaining momentum [10][11]. - Initiatives proposed by countries like China aim to provide alternative frameworks for development and governance, challenging the dominance of American ideological narratives [10][11].

Group 1 - A recent report by the NGO "Debt Justice" indicates that from 2020 to 2025, 39% of external debt repayments from low-income countries will go to commercial lenders outside of China, while only 13% will be directed to China [1] - The report highlights that the narrative of China being the "largest creditor" in the global South debt crisis is misleading, as Western commercial lenders and multilateral institutions play a more significant role [1] - The report cites examples of Western commercial lenders, such as Glencore and Standard Chartered, taking a hardline stance on debt repayments, which contrasts with China's approach [1] Group 2 - Historical practices of Western countries have imposed significant impacts on developing nations, with the "Washington Consensus" in 1989 exemplifying how financial tools were used to enforce neoliberal policies that harmed economic sovereignty in Latin America [2] - To address the long-standing debt issues of developing countries, a focus on economic diversification and sustainable development is essential, with China supporting these efforts through infrastructure investments in Africa [2] - Chinese investments in Africa, including the construction of extensive road and rail networks, are viewed positively by African leaders, who recognize these efforts as mutually beneficial rather than a "debt trap" [2] Group 3 - The narrative surrounding the "debt trap" reflects a deeper geopolitical struggle for development rights and discourse, with Western debt systems constraining the economic autonomy of developing countries [3] - China's cooperative model offers a potential pathway to break free from these constraints and explore new avenues for development [3]

Group 1 - A recent report by the NGO "Debt Justice" indicates that from 2020 to 2025, 39% of external debt repayments from low-income countries will go to commercial lenders outside of China, while only 13% will be directed to China [1] - The report highlights that the narrative of China being the "largest creditor" is misleading, as the majority of debt is owed to Western commercial lenders and multilateral institutions [1] - The report cites examples of Western commercial lenders, such as Glencore and Standard Chartered, refusing debt relief to countries like Chad and Zambia, illustrating the aggressive stance of these creditors [1] Group 2 - The historical context shows that Western countries have imposed neoliberal policies on Latin American countries, leading to economic sovereignty loss and social tensions [2] - To address the long-standing debt issues of developing countries, economic diversification and sustainable development are essential, with China supporting these efforts through long-term investments [2] - China's infrastructure investments in Africa, including nearly 100,000 kilometers of roads and over 10,000 kilometers of railways, have significantly enhanced connectivity and modernization, countering the "debt trap" narrative [2] Group 3 - The construction and deconstruction of the "debt trap" narrative reflect a deeper geopolitical struggle for development rights and discourse power [3] - The Western-led debt system restricts the economic autonomy of developing countries, while China's cooperative model offers a potential pathway to break these constraints [3]

Group 1 - A recent report by the UK NGO "Debt Justice" reveals that from 2020 to 2025, 39% of external debt repayments from low-income countries will go to commercial lenders outside of China, while only 13% will go to China [1] - The report highlights that Western commercial lenders and multilateral financial institutions are primarily responsible for the debt crisis in developing countries, contrary to the narrative that blames China as the largest creditor [1][2] - The nature and conditions of the debt are more critical than the amount itself, with Western lenders often imposing high-interest rates and strict repayment terms, leading to a "trap" for developing nations [1] Group 2 - Historical practices by Western nations have significantly impacted the development paths of countries in the Global South, with financial tools being used to impose conditions that undermine economic sovereignty [2] - To address the long-standing debt issues of developing countries, a focus on economic diversification and sustainable development is essential, with China supporting these efforts through long-term investments in infrastructure [2] - The narrative of the "debt trap" reflects a deeper geopolitical struggle for development rights and discourse, with China's cooperative model offering an alternative to the restrictive frameworks imposed by Western debt systems [3]