Group 1 - The central bank of Turkey indicates that recent data shows a strengthening of anti-inflationary effects from demand conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "interval shock" [1] Core View - In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in an interval shock market. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7216, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 262,918, and the open interest decreased by 8562 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 136 yesterday, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 27 [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080 yuan/ton, 7150 yuan/ton, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively yesterday [1] 2. Spot News - The market price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated, then declined in the afternoon. The market atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro: Domestically, the overall commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while externally, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. Plastics are in an interval shock market [2] - Supply: In July, the maintenance volume will be less than that in June. The new production capacity of domestic PE devices in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 78.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [2] - Demand: The downstream of polyethylene is in the off - season. Terminal orders are weak, and enterprises are cautious in stocking. The overall start - up rate of the shed film industry is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC trend strength is 1, indicating a "neutral" outlook [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, domestic macro is affected by anti - involution, with overall commodity sentiment being strong, but PVC is in a range - bound market temporarily due to high - yield, high - inventory structure and external risks [1][2] - In the future, the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit as the high - yield and high - inventory situation of PVC is difficult to ease [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - 09 contract futures price is 4937, East China spot price is 4840, basis is - 97, and 9 - 1 month spread is - 119 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply has steadily increased this week, it's the off - season for demand, and industry inventory has continued to grow. The spot price is under pressure, with the transaction price in East China for calcium carbide type five at 4800 - 4920 yuan/ton and ethylene type at 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The anti - involution sentiment is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. But the impact on PVC may be limited as most PVC devices have continuous maintenance and upgrades [1][2] - Fundamentals: Northwest chlor - alkali integrated devices still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient drive for supply - side production cuts, and the high - yield and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease [1][2] - High - yield Structure: PVC maintenance volume is lower than in 2023, and the high - yield pattern continues. Chlor - alkali cost has declined, and the caustic soda demand in 2025 supports high profits. There will be about 110 million tons of new capacity put into production from July to August [1][2] - High - inventory Pressure: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, caustic soda is in the off - season for demand, with insufficient price increase momentum, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for peak - season demand in the future, so it is advisable to participate in the 10 - 1 positive spread of the monthly difference [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2484, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 840, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2625, and the basis is 141 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. The high - price sales of low - concentration caustic soda have slowed down, and the sales performance of each factory varies, with inventory increasing or decreasing [2] Market Condition Analysis - Macroeconomically, in the short term, the overall sentiment of domestic commodities is strong due to the anti - involution effect, while externally, attention should be paid to the risk that the trade war in August may exceed expectations. In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, caustic soda is currently in a volatile market [3] - From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The new production capacity of caustic soda from July to August may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, manufacturers have over - sold in exports, and the pressure of new production capacity is basically digested by exports [3] - On the demand side, it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, with weak support. The inventory of caustic soda in alumina is neutral, and the export direction has strong support, with a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the influence of anti - involution in China, the overall commodity sentiment is strong, but there is a risk that the trade war may exceed expectations in August. Under the background of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in a range - bound market for now. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand support, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures yesterday was 7215, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 181,546 and the open interest decreased by 2617. The 09 - contract basis was - 135 (compared to - 114 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 20 (compared to - 11 the previous day). The important spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080, 7160, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decline from the previous day [1] Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market prices oscillated and declined. The crude oil market maintained an oscillating trend, and the linear futures were generally weak. The downstream factory orders were limited, the enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the intention to purchase raw materials was weak. The sales of petrochemical and trading companies were blocked, and the overall trading volume was limited despite the price decline [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, the short - term domestic commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The polyethylene fundamentals have not improved. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance volume in July will be less than that in June and the new production capacity in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The demand support is weak, and although the inventory was previously low year - on - year, it is gradually accumulating. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 77.79%, a decrease of 1.67% from the previous period, mainly due to more maintenance of existing devices [2] Demand - side Situation - The downstream of polyethylene is still in the off - season, with weak terminal orders and cautious enterprise inventory preparation. The shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with only a slight increase in the operating rate in some areas. The procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high, and the raw material inventory level is lower than last year. Some food and daily - chemical packaging films have short - term rigid demand support, but the continuous replenishment is insufficient. The operating rates of PE hollow and pipes are lower than the same period last year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the euro has a significant anti-inflation effect [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Villeroy, emphasized the positive impact of the euro's strength on controlling inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in foreign tourists visiting the U.S. may contribute to lowering inflation, providing a potential relief for the Federal Reserve in its fight against rising prices [1] Group 1: Tourist Trends - The average number of foreign tourists flying into the U.S. has decreased by approximately 4% this year [1] - When including those driving into the U.S., the number of visitors from Canada has dropped by 15% [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in tourism has unexpectedly resulted in beneficial anti-inflation effects, as evidenced by a 1.3% month-over-month decrease in accommodation inflation in April [1] - Airfare prices have decreased by 7.9%, contributing to an overall reduction in the inflation rate by nearly 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Context - Amid rising tariffs that are pushing up goods prices, the drop in foreign tourists may serve as a welcomed source of downward pressure on inflation for the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the UK labor market will continue to weaken, leading the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is expected to rise above the Bank of England's modal forecast, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [1] - In May, employment numbers decreased by 109,000, marking the most significant drop since May 2020, which paints a concerning picture of the labor market [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will decrease from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to a low of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls in May slightly exceeded expectations, but previous two months' data were significantly revised downwards; unemployment rate remains stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected; bets on Fed rate cuts have decreased [2] - Fed's Harker calls for patience, stating that it is not the time for preemptive measures [2] - Fed Governor Bowman suggests proposing changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks; regulatory agencies will soon announce proposals to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann expresses differing opinions on this week's interest rate decision, stating that the current nominal neutral rate is around 3% [3] - ECB Governing Council member Vujcic indicates that the current round of rate cuts is nearing its end [4] - ECB Governing Council member Centeno states that interest rates will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Other Central Bank Developments - New Zealand's Chief Economist Conway mentions that lower interest rates will promote economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reduction [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida states that Japan is gradually entering a phase of rising interest rates [5] - Bank of England member Green notes a short-term rebound in prices, but deflationary trends will continue [5] - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá suggests that the path for the benchmark interest rate may require slight adjustments [5]