2025 年 10 月 8 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普宣布对进口中型和重型卡车征收 25%关税 法国总理勒科尔尼向马克龙递交辞呈 欧洲央行行长拉加德：反通胀过程已经结束 欧盟拟加码钢铁保护措施：征收 50%关税以支撑行业 英国或将部分放宽稳定币持有上限 世贸组织上调 2025 年贸易预测，大幅下调明年展望 中国央行连续第 11 个月增持黄金 雷军：小米 17 系列首销成绩远超预期 特斯拉在美推出低价版 Model Y 以提振销量 OpenAI 与 AMD 宣布签署芯片协议 价值数十亿美元 2 年期美债收益率跌 1.85 个基点报 3.564% 5 年期美债收益率跌 3.12 个基点报 3.699% 10 年期美债收益率跌 2.90 个基点报 4.123% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025-10-08 | 2670 | 云迹 | | 资料来源：港交所、国元证 ...

艾斯克里瓦称，当前通胀水平与2%的政策目标基本一致，"反通胀是成功的"。他回顾称，"两三年前， 情况很复杂。目前2%的利率对我们来说是合理的。" 这一表态反映出欧洲央行在完成一轮显著宽松周期后的审慎立场。截至目前，欧洲央行已在一年内实施 八次降息，市场普遍认为其短期内进一步降息的倾向减弱。 近期，欧元区经济前景的可见度有所提升。艾斯克里瓦提及，布鲁塞尔与华盛顿达成贸易协议是改善经 济预期的因素之一，但未就协议具体内容或影响作进一步说明。 新华财经北京9月17日电欧洲央行管理委员会成员艾斯克里瓦（Escrivá）近日表示，尽管当前通胀形势 趋于稳定，但经济前景仍面临不确定性，央行必须保持高度灵活，随时准备在货币政策上采取任何方向 的行动。 "我们需要非常灵活，随时准备在货币政策上朝着任何方向行动，"艾斯克里瓦指出，并强调"即使我们 的核心设想正在成为现实，也不意味着不确定性因素已经消除。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

"欧洲央行管理委员会一致决定将所有三项主要利率维持不变，拉加德表示，关于经济预测和风险的讨 论是"在桌子上达成一致的"。欧洲央行将采取数据依赖的、逐次会议的方针来确定适宜的货币政策立 场，并声明"我们不会预先承诺具体的利率路径，并且我们随时准备调整我们所有的工具"。经济增长的 风险已变得更加平衡，尽管近期的贸易协定减少了不确定性，但贸易关系的任何重新恶化都可能进一步 抑制出口，并拖累投资和消费。尽管预计更高的关税、更强的欧元以及日益激烈的全球竞争将抑制今年 剩余时间的增长，但这些逆风对经济增长的影响应会在明年消退。 欧元兑美元4小时图显示明确的多头格局，当前价位1.1747稳居所有关键均线上方：22周期SMA为 1.1661，50周期SMA为1.1630，100周期SMA为1.1624，200周期SMA为1.1664，反映短期趋势偏上行。 MACD指标(参数26,12,9)进一步印证：DIFF线0.0023，DEA线0.0019，柱状图0.0007，正值运行暗示动 能温和扩张，未现背离信号，日内0.13%回落属正常调整而非趋势逆转。成交量未明显放大，但价格守 住1.17整数关口，强化多头控盘。 周五（9月12 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rates during the upcoming decision on September 11, aligning with long-standing views and current market expectations [1][2] - Economic data since the July meeting has shown mixed results, with August PMI slightly better than expected and a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2, although this may be revised down [1][2] - There are signs of anti-inflation since June, including the appreciation of the euro and higher-than-expected tariffs from the US on the EU, but the ECB's inflation forecasts are not expected to be downgraded [2] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the current state is stable, indicating no intention for further rate cuts, which supports the view that data is insufficient to change policy in September [2] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% is likely to be missed in the coming year, with projections suggesting it may only be reached by 2027 [2] - Lagarde may be questioned about France's situation and the potential use of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), but it is anticipated she will avoid the topic, stating it is too early for such discussions [3]

"我们维持年底通胀预期不变；通胀降温的必要条件基本已经具备，"他说。"通胀放缓的进程正沿着我 们预期的路径发展。对我们来说，重要的是这种改善是持久和稳定的。" 新华财经北京8月6日电土耳其财长西姆塞克表示，土耳其的反通胀进程仍然明确地持续下去，通胀将在 两年内降至个位数，并称政府不会允许这一进程偏离轨道。 西姆塞克说，他预计通胀率将保持在19%-29%的央行年底预测范围内，明年将降至20%以下，2027年将 降至个位数。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The central bank of Turkey indicates that recent data shows a strengthening of anti-inflationary effects from demand conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "interval shock" [1] Core View - In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in an interval shock market. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7216, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 262,918, and the open interest decreased by 8562 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 136 yesterday, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 27 [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080 yuan/ton, 7150 yuan/ton, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively yesterday [1] 2. Spot News - The market price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated, then declined in the afternoon. The market atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro: Domestically, the overall commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while externally, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. Plastics are in an interval shock market [2] - Supply: In July, the maintenance volume will be less than that in June. The new production capacity of domestic PE devices in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 78.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [2] - Demand: The downstream of polyethylene is in the off - season. Terminal orders are weak, and enterprises are cautious in stocking. The overall start - up rate of the shed film industry is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC trend strength is 1, indicating a "neutral" outlook [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, domestic macro is affected by anti - involution, with overall commodity sentiment being strong, but PVC is in a range - bound market temporarily due to high - yield, high - inventory structure and external risks [1][2] - In the future, the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit as the high - yield and high - inventory situation of PVC is difficult to ease [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - 09 contract futures price is 4937, East China spot price is 4840, basis is - 97, and 9 - 1 month spread is - 119 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply has steadily increased this week, it's the off - season for demand, and industry inventory has continued to grow. The spot price is under pressure, with the transaction price in East China for calcium carbide type five at 4800 - 4920 yuan/ton and ethylene type at 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The anti - involution sentiment is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. But the impact on PVC may be limited as most PVC devices have continuous maintenance and upgrades [1][2] - Fundamentals: Northwest chlor - alkali integrated devices still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient drive for supply - side production cuts, and the high - yield and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease [1][2] - High - yield Structure: PVC maintenance volume is lower than in 2023, and the high - yield pattern continues. Chlor - alkali cost has declined, and the caustic soda demand in 2025 supports high profits. There will be about 110 million tons of new capacity put into production from July to August [1][2] - High - inventory Pressure: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, caustic soda is in the off - season for demand, with insufficient price increase momentum, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for peak - season demand in the future, so it is advisable to participate in the 10 - 1 positive spread of the monthly difference [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2484, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 840, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2625, and the basis is 141 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. The high - price sales of low - concentration caustic soda have slowed down, and the sales performance of each factory varies, with inventory increasing or decreasing [2] Market Condition Analysis - Macroeconomically, in the short term, the overall sentiment of domestic commodities is strong due to the anti - involution effect, while externally, attention should be paid to the risk that the trade war in August may exceed expectations. In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, caustic soda is currently in a volatile market [3] - From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The new production capacity of caustic soda from July to August may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, manufacturers have over - sold in exports, and the pressure of new production capacity is basically digested by exports [3] - On the demand side, it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, with weak support. The inventory of caustic soda in alumina is neutral, and the export direction has strong support, with a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4][5]