Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The dollar index is 97.85, with a day - on - day increase of 0.62 and a growth rate of 0.64%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1193, with a day - on - day increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.76%. DR007 is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.11 and a growth rate of 7.52%. R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.82%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.82% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple charts related to the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc. [15][17][19] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds, as well as the Shibor interest rate trend and the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [28][34]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [32][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report offers charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [59][61]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][72]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the interbank currency market experienced an increase in trading volume while the balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and large commercial banks' average net lending balance falling [1][2][3] Group 2 - In July, the total trading volume in the currency market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily transaction decreased by 2.2% to 8.1 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank intensified liquidity provision, resulting in an overall balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased to 12.8 trillion yuan, down 2.1% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks fell by 4.0% [5] Group 3 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with total bond issuance in July at 5.29 trillion yuan, a decline of 0.6% from the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [6] - The bond market saw a fluctuation in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [8] - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with daily average transaction volume increasing by 44.8% in July [9]

Core Viewpoint - South Africa's repo rate has been set at 7% as of July 31, which aligns with market expectations of 7.00% and is a decrease from the previous rate of 7.25% [1] Group 1 - The current repo rate of 7% indicates a monetary policy adjustment aimed at stimulating economic activity [1] - The decision to lower the rate from 7.25% reflects the central bank's response to economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Turkey set the repo rate at 43% for the week ending July 24, which is slightly below the expected rate of 43.5% and down from the previous rate of 46.00% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although the social financing data increased year - on - year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and the credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom - bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk - aversion sentiment, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, there were no more - than - expected loose measures, cooling the market's expectation of the central bank's treasury bond trading, causing interest - rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of loose policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra - long - term treasury bond trading was active, but the overall situation was still affected by the policy vacuum period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.31, with a decrease of 0.40 and a decline rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1603, with a decrease of 0.008 and a decline rate of 0.11%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.67, with no change and a decline rate of 0.06%; DR007 was 1.69, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.51%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.63, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78% [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures and the price change situation of various treasury bond futures varieties [9][15][17][19]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On June 26, 2025, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 509.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.670%, 1.736%, and 1.622% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][44][45]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, and the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [47][49]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [56][59][62]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [67][70]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [75][78][81]. 3.9 Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuated, and the 2509 contract was neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's repo rate remains at 46% as of June 19, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1] Group 1 - The repo rate is unchanged at 46%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1] - Market expectations were accurately predicted, reflecting confidence in the current economic strategy [1] - The previous rate was also 46%, showing consistency in the central bank's approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to implement variable rate reverse repo operations to align overnight borrowing rates closer to the repo rate, while also planning to use the cash reserve ratio more frequently to manage persistent liquidity [1] Group 1 - The RBI's revised liquidity framework may not be announced immediately, indicating a cautious approach to communication [1] - The implementation of variable rate reverse repo operations aims to stabilize overnight borrowing rates [1] - The RBI intends to manage long-term liquidity by utilizing the cash reserve ratio more frequently [1]

Group 1 - The South African repo rate is maintained at 7.25%, aligning with market expectations and down from the previous rate of 7.50% [1]