1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for TL2606 is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly conduct range - bound oscillatory consolidation. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, the domestic macroeconomic indicators are resilient, the policy is more inclined to structural easing, the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bonds is limited, and the safe - haven demand provides strong support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. - The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures conducted narrow - range oscillatory consolidation. There is great uncertainty in the US - Iran peace talks. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down. The domestic macroeconomic indicators are resilient, the policy is more inclined to structural easing, the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bonds is limited, and the safe - haven demand provides strong support [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trend of TL2606 is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weak, with an overall view of consolidation. The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is consolidation. The future monetary and credit environment will remain mainly loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly conduct range - bound consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | Oscillatory | Oscillatory | Weak | Oscillatory consolidation | The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. Trump signaled the hope to end the US - Iran conflict, easing market concerns about the crude oil supply crisis, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices and a reduction in investors' concerns about global stagflation and the hindrance of central bank monetary easing. Currently, China's inflation indicators are relatively moderate, and the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. The future monetary and credit environment will remain mainly loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly conduct range - bound consolidation [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view for TL2606 is a shock, the medium - term view is a shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is a shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Due to the decline in the expectation of the central bank's full - scale interest rate cut in the short term, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has weakened. The central bank emphasizes coordinated efforts with fiscal policies, meaning that monetary policy will tend to be structurally loose. However, macro - economic indicators have weakened, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of an interest rate cut still exists in the future, so Treasury bond futures have strong support. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is a shock, the medium - term is a shock, the intraday is weak, and the view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is a shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The expectation of the central bank's full - scale interest rate cut in the short term has declined, weakening the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. The central bank emphasizes coordinated efforts with fiscal policies, and monetary policy will tend to be structurally loose. Macro - economic indicators have weakened, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of an interest rate cut still exists in the future, so Treasury bond futures have strong support. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in shock consolidation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the TL2603 variety is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. However, the latest macroeconomic indicators have weakened, indicating potential problems on the demand side, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is "oscillating", the medium - term is "oscillating", the intraday is "weakening", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. The central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations reduce the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. But the weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies potential problems on the demand side, so the expectation of an interest rate cut still exists, providing support. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Currently, treasury bond futures are in a shock - consolidation stage with limited upside and downside. Due to the marginal weakening of December's consumption, investment, and new residential credit data, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there are still expectations of monetary easing, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upside space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly experience shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, the view reference is shock consolidation, and the core logic is the decreased short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures had a narrow - range shock consolidation yesterday, are in a shock - consolidation stage with limited upside and downside. Weak December data leads to expectations of monetary easing, supporting treasury bond futures, while the January structural interest rate cut reduces the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the upside [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate and consolidate. The short - term upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited, mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state [1][5] 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The macro - economy in 2025 showed strong resilience, and the central bank launched a structural interest rate cut policy recently, so the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. From the perspective of supporting demand and new kinetic energy, the possibility of a loose monetary policy in the future is relatively high, and treasury bond futures have strong support [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillating consolidation". The core reason is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". Currently, treasury bond futures are in an oscillating consolidation market. In the short term, both the upside and downside spaces are limited. On one hand, there is still a problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the policy side clearly proposes to support technological innovation and promote the domestic consumption cycle, so the future monetary and credit environment is still expected to be loose. On the other hand, the macro - demand side has strong resilience, and the urgency of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is weak. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weakening - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating - **Reference View**: Oscillating consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. Currently in an oscillating consolidation market, short - term upside and downside spaces are limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand and policy support for innovation and consumption, future monetary policy is expected to be loose. However, the macro - demand side has strong resilience, and the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak. So, short - term treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations. The TL2603 variety is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation in the short, medium and intraday terms, with a weak intraday trend [1][5]. - The intraday view of financial futures in the stock index sector is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock consolidation. The short - term upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, and they will mainly be in shock consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. Afternoon stock market decline increased the demand for Treasury bond hedging, but the market is not panicked in the short term. The upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. On one hand, due to insufficient domestic demand, there is an expectation of policy interest rate cuts, so the downward momentum is insufficient. On the other hand, the strong performance of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of short - term interest rate cuts, so the upward momentum is insufficient [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. With the decline of Treasury bond spot prices and the central bank's net injection in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the strong resilience of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of a short - term interest rate cut, so the upward momentum is also insufficient. Overall, short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak | Oscillation and consolidation | Low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectation [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation and consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The upward and downward momentum is limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand, a loose monetary and credit environment is needed, so there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. The decline of spot prices and the central bank's net injection reduce the downward momentum, while the strong December macro - economic data reduces the short - term urgency of a rate cut, limiting the upward momentum. Short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Treasury bond futures to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, with upper pressure and lower support. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still medium - to - long - term expectations of monetary policy easing [1][5] 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening". The reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly retraced. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts in 2026, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short - term, the macro data shows strong resilience, reducing the urgency of monetary policy easing. Coupled with the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter, the momentum for the rebound of Treasury bond futures is weak [5]