☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | 2025年1-9月 ·中国房地产企业 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 新增货值TOP100 | | | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增土地货值 | | | | (亿元) | | 1 | 中海地产 | 2017. 0 | | 2 | 招商蛇口 | 1531.8 | | 3 | 绿城中国 | 1175.0 | | ব | 保利发展 | 1149.0 | | 5 | 花泡置地 | 906. 9 | | 6 | 中国金茂 | 810. 5 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 803. 6 | | 8 | 中旅投资 | 703. 2 | | 9 | 徐汇城投 | 620. 5 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 580. 1 | | 11 | 越秀地产 | 548. 6 | | 12 | 中建智地 | 333.0 | | 13 | 象屿地产 | 292. 7 | | 14 | 保利置业 | 254.6 | | 15 | 日切壮立 | 752 0 | | IU | - IN LIV | | | --- | --- | --- | | 16 | 联发集团 | 221. 4 | | ...

2025年第39周 Weekly 2025年9月22日-2025年9月28日，第39周土地供应规模大幅上升，成交规模延续高位，土拍热度低位持平。 本周重点城市监测供应土地建筑面积为695万平方米，环比上升89%，成交建筑面积为648万平方米，环比下 降7%，依旧延续年内高位。本周厦门出让了4宗高总价宅地，合计成交总价81.25亿元，但均由本地国企底 价竞得，土拍热度低位持平，周度平均溢价率1.5%。 供应： 本周供应建筑面积为695万平方米，环比上升89%。 一线城市中北京挂牌2宗宅地，均位于昌平区，合计出 让底价54.1亿元。广州番禺区挂牌1宗宅地，出让底价11亿元。重点城市本周供应宅地72宗，平均容积率1.95。 重点供应地块方面，北京昌平区天通苑歇甲庄村挂牌一宗低密度高总价地块，地块容积率1.65，起拍总价26亿元， 起拍楼板价2.5万元/平方米。地块距离17号线天通苑东站约2公里，未来可换乘13A线，连接望京、西三旗、上地乃 至中关村软件园等重要就业区域。教育和商业主要依赖歇甲庄村规划新建。周边有清河、温榆河公园等生态资源， 生态配套较佳。不过地块周边城市界面较为老旧，且临近拆迁安置房片区。该地块歇甲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The land supply continues to decline while transaction volumes have significantly increased, indicating a low overall heat in the land auction market [1][3]. Supply Summary - The total land supply this week was 3.67 million square meters, a decrease of 25% compared to the previous week [2]. - In first-tier cities, only Guangzhou listed one residential land parcel with a starting price of 420 million yuan [2]. - The average plot ratio for the 39 residential land parcels in key cities was 1.73 [2]. - A notable land parcel in Guangzhou's Panyu district was highlighted as a "heritage series" site, with a total area of 44,500 square meters and a low plot ratio of 1.1 [2]. Transaction Summary - The total transaction area this week reached 6.99 million square meters, a substantial increase of 261% week-on-week, with a transaction value of 32.2 billion yuan, up 265% [3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions was 1.5%, which is a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - In Hangzhou, two low-density residential land parcels were sold, with one achieving a premium of 25.5% [4]. Key Land Transactions - The highest-priced residential land this week was in Suzhou's Wujiang district, with a starting price of 1.94 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 1.2 [3]. - In Hangzhou, the land parcel in the Gongshu district was sold for 1.33 billion yuan, with a floor price of 20,490 yuan per square meter [4]. - The surrounding new housing market in the area has shown strong performance, with a sales price of approximately 33,500 yuan per square meter for nearby projects [4].

Core Insights - The land market in Xi'an experienced a concentrated transaction day, with 12 out of 14 planned plots successfully sold, totaling 658.835 acres and generating a transaction amount of 6.109 billion yuan [1][2][16] Group 1: Land Transactions - A total of 12 plots were sold, with 11 sold at the base price and 1 at a slight premium, including 5 commercial plots totaling 148.07 acres and 7 residential/commercial plots totaling 510.765 acres [2][16] - Notable commercial land transactions include a 40.43-acre plot in Yanta District acquired by Future Real Estate Co., which will host the first Sam's Club in Northwest China [3][4][7] - Another significant transaction involved a 69.491-acre commercial plot in the Chanba International Port area, purchased by Shaanxi Renhui Real Estate Development Co. for 305.6 million yuan [7][9] Group 2: Major Developers - Major developers such as China Merchants Shekou, Tiandi Source, and Longxiang actively participated in acquiring residential plots, with China Merchants Shekou's total land acquisition amount in Xi'an exceeding 2.3 billion yuan this year [10][11] - Longxiang secured a 99.138-acre residential plot for 1.1528 billion yuan, while Tiandi Source acquired a 125.377-acre residential plot for 2.015 billion yuan [10][13] Group 3: Market Trends - The overall land market in Xi'an remains less heated compared to first-tier and strong second-tier cities, attributed to cautious developer behavior and a large supply of land [16][17] - The recent land auction results indicate a mixed sentiment, with some expected plots experiencing unexpected failures to sell, particularly in the popular Tuanjie area [16][17]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows mixed signals with a slight increase in land transaction area but a significant rise in average transaction prices [4][6][7] - The top 50 real estate companies have seen a substantial increase in land reserve value, indicating a strategic focus on land acquisition despite a slight decrease in land reserve area [5] Group 1: Land Transaction Data - In the first seven months of 2025, the total land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with an average transaction price rising by 24% [4] - The average transaction price for residential land in first-tier cities reached 39,229 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [4] - In second-tier cities, the average transaction price was 8,336 yuan per square meter, up 19% year-on-year, while in third-tier cities, it was 3,360 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 12.4% increase [4] Group 2: Top 50 Real Estate Companies - From January to August 2025, the top 50 real estate companies added land reserves valued at 625.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.3% [5] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value were China Overseas Land & Investment (66.4 billion yuan), Greentown China (61.5 billion yuan), and Poly Developments (52.8 billion yuan) [5] - The total area of new land reserves for these companies decreased by 2% year-on-year, totaling 42.54 million square meters [5] Group 3: Core 30 Cities Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the core 30 cities recorded a 3% year-on-year increase in land transaction area, with an average transaction price rising by 28% [6] - The total land transaction area in these cities was 62.47 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 731.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.1% year-on-year increase [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in these cities was 12.9%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 4: Market Share Insights - The core 30 cities accounted for 52% of the total land transaction area and 85% of the total transaction value across 100 cities in the first seven months of 2025 [7] - The average transaction prices in the core 6 cities, core 30 cities, and 100 cities were 25,848 yuan, 11,903 yuan, and 7,391 yuan per square meter, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The land auction market in key cities has shown signs of recovery this year, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in residential land transaction area but a 16% increase in revenue from land sales in the first eight months [1] - In August, the transaction area for residential land in 300 cities was approximately 30 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decline of about 30%, while core cities like Shenzhen and Ningbo successfully auctioned off previously unsold or reserved plots by adjusting land use parameters [1] - The top 100 companies acquired land worth 605.6 billion yuan in the first eight months, marking a 28% year-on-year increase, with state-owned enterprises dominating the top ten land acquirers [1] Group 2 - Local governments are adopting two main strategies in response to industry inventory pressures: a continuous reduction in total land supply and an accelerated optimization of land structure, focusing on high-quality plots in core cities [2] - The land market's core logic indicates that land attributes determine market heat, with funds flowing towards projects with high revenue certainty and quick cash flow recovery [2] - The traditional peak sales season, "Golden September and Silver October," is expected to see an increase in project launches by real estate companies in core cities, potentially boosting market activity [2]

Core Insights - The land market in August experienced a significant decline in both transaction volume and prices, primarily due to a slowdown in the release of quality land parcels in key cities, with an average premium rate of 5.6%, marking the second-lowest point of the year [1][2][14] Group 1: Market Performance - The total area of commercially operated land sold nationwide reached 40.74 million square meters by August 25, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, with the transaction amount at 95.3 billion yuan, down 16% year-on-year [2] - The average floor price was 2,339 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 3% year-on-year decline, while the premium rate of 5.6% was the second-lowest this year [2] - The premium rate in first-tier cities remained high at 26.64%, reaching a new monthly high since 2025, while the average premium rate in second-tier cities dropped to 2%, the lowest this year [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The investment pace of 30 monitored enterprises in August saw a dramatic decline, with land acquisition amounts halving month-on-month to approximately 25 billion yuan, the lowest in nearly a year [12][13] - Among these enterprises, 18 did not acquire any new land in August, with only a few companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou jointly acquiring over 8 billion yuan in Shenzhen [9][13] - The strategy of "preferring quality over quantity" is expected to continue, with investment levels dependent on the quality and frequency of land auctions in core cities [14] Group 3: Top Enterprises and Market Concentration - The threshold for the top 100 enterprises in terms of land value decreased by 6% year-on-year to 3.19 billion yuan, while the total price threshold increased by 12% to 1.54 billion yuan [4] - The top 10 enterprises accounted for 70% of the new land value among the top 100, indicating a further concentration of market power among leading firms [9] - The land acquisition-to-sales ratio for the top 100 enterprises was 0.27, with the top 10 firms having a significantly higher ratio of 0.39, showcasing a stark contrast in investment attitudes across different tiers of companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The land market continues to experience a seasonal decline in transaction volume, with significant policy support from tax refunds expected to boost future land auction investments [2][4][8]. Supply and Demand - The supply of land in August reached 65.92 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, while transaction volume was 40.74 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [5][10]. - The average premium rate for land auctions in August was 5.6%, marking the second-lowest point of the year, with first-tier cities achieving a premium rate of 26.64%, a new monthly high for 2025 [5][18]. Market Heat - There is a significant divergence in land auction activity across different city tiers, with first-tier cities maintaining high premiums while second and third-tier cities see a decline in auction frequency [5][18]. - The average premium rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities were 26.64%, 2%, and 3% respectively [5][18]. Future Outlook - The recent tax refund policy is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures for new land-acquiring companies, enhancing their confidence in participating in land auctions [8][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal and land reserve efforts are likely to improve the certainty of supply, leading to more quality land offerings in the market [7][12]. Transaction Details - As of August 25, 2025, the total transaction amount for land reached 95.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, primarily due to a decline in high-quality land transactions in major cities [15][19]. - The average floor price for land in August was 2,339 yuan per square meter, down 3% year-on-year and 20 percentage points from the previous month [15][18]. Key Land Transactions - The highest total price for a land transaction in August was 8.6 billion yuan for a site in Shenzhen, with a premium of 35% [23][24]. - The highest floor price was recorded at approximately 59,586 yuan per square meter for a site in Shenzhen, setting a new price record for the area [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The land supply scale has significantly increased week-on-week, while transaction volume remains low, indicating a cooling in land auction enthusiasm [1]. Supply Summary - The total land supply area for the week is 4.87 million square meters, a 61% increase compared to the previous week [1]. - In first-tier cities, only Guangzhou added one residential land parcel, while Shanghai's new listings were all commercial and office land [1]. - Key cities supplied 50 residential land parcels with an average plot ratio of 1.82; cities like Nantong, Chongqing, and Wuxi had average plot ratios not exceeding 1.5 [1]. Transaction Summary - The total transaction area for the week is 2.8 million square meters, a 6% decrease week-on-week, with a total transaction value of 12.4 billion yuan, down 42% [3]. - The number of high-premium land transactions remains low, with only one low-density residential land in Hangzhou achieving a 14% premium [3]. - A land parcel in Ningbo's Jiangbei District was re-listed at a starting price of 19.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of approximately 3,700 yuan per square meter compared to its previous transaction price [3]. Key Land Parcels - In Chengdu's Chenghua District, a high-value commercial and residential land parcel was listed with a starting price of 2.1 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 3.0 [2]. - A residential land parcel in Zhengzhou's Zhengdong New District has a starting price of 1.52 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 1.5, located in a high-end residential area [3]. - The Hangzhou Xiasha unit land was sold for 490 million yuan after 13 rounds of bidding, with a plot ratio of 1.4 and an average floor price of 18,000 yuan per square meter [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of the Hangzhou land market with successful transactions of low-density residential plots and upcoming land offerings, indicating a potential increase in competition among developers [4][5][8]. - Two low-density residential plots were successfully auctioned, generating a total revenue of 67.131 million yuan, although the overall interest remained low due to their suburban locations [5][6]. - The 99th plot in Xiasha was sold for 49.241 million yuan, with a floor price of 18,219 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 13.9%, marking the first acquisition by Hangzhou Lanbin Real Estate [6][7]. Group 2 - The 100th plot in Changhua Town, despite its favorable natural environment, attracted limited interest and was sold at the base price of 2,595 yuan per square meter, also marking the first acquisition by Hangzhou Hongyuan Real Estate [7]. - Upcoming land offerings include the 102nd plot in Xiaoshan South Station and the 103rd plot in Xihu District, both expected to generate significant interest from developers due to their advantageous locations [8][9]. - The 105th plot in the Canal New City is set to be auctioned with a starting price of 106 million yuan and a floor price of 16,331 yuan per square meter, indicating continued supply in the market [9][10].