过去一个月，中国三大上市酒店企业(华住/锦江/首旅，股价分别下跌3%/5%/7%，而恒生中国企业指数 持平)表现不佳，原因是劳动节假期后出现获利了结，且它们对2025年RevPar(每间可售房收入)前景的评 论平淡。 尽管摩根大通预计投资者可能会对暑期旅游需求回升感兴趣，期望RevPar同比转正，类似4月的情况， 但摩根大通中国酒店追踪数据对2025年第二季度/第三季度财务数据的下行风险提出警告，因为预售平 均每日房价(ADR)7月也应会同比下降。 因此，摩根大通将这三家公司2025年的预测全部下调，同时维持投资策略：投资者仍可卖出估值实则更 高的相对弱势企业(锦江/首旅，尽管今年迄今表现不佳，但股价仍有20%+的下行空间，且存在每股收 益下调19%/7%的可能)，并在华住股价回调时增持，以进行长期行业整合。 摩根大通中国酒店追踪数据显示暑期旅游热度平平。摩根大通的追踪数据不仅表明，三大酒店集团2025 年第二季度的ADR可能会像5月各公司指引的那样同比大幅下降，还显示2025年第三季度的ADR可能会 继续同比下降，因为摩根大通的数据显示7月预售ADR尽管暑期需求回升，但同比仍更弱。摩根大通现 在预计RevP ...

金十数据6月23日讯，交银国际发表报告，指京东(09618.HK)宣布酒店PLUS会员计划，参与酒店享受最 高三年零佣金，该行认为此举乃京东在外卖业务于6月1日峰值订单突破2,500万之后，在本地生活场景 的进一步拓展。视京东酒旅商家拓展进度、流量转化效果，该行认为从客群重合度角度或对携程影响较 大，从本地消费场景看或对美团(03690.HK)、同程旅行(00780.HK)影响更大，但携程集团-S(09961.HK) 的供应链壁垒、美团及同程的下沉市场优势短期难以撼动。交银国际表示，现价对应京东、美团、携程 及同程2025年市盈率分别为7.5倍、17.9倍、15.9倍及12.5倍，均处于历史低位，关注竞争格局演变对平 台短期利润的影响。 交银国际：京东入局OTA 撼动格局难度高于外卖 ...

近期，携程海外版的广告语在社交媒体上频繁出现，引发了广泛关注。 这家来自中国的在线旅游平台究竟是 如何在竞争激烈的海外市场中站稳脚跟的？ 携程集团旗下的国际在线旅游平台 Trip.com，作为携程在海外市场的重要延伸，目前已在包括美国、印度等 39 个国家和地区开展业务。尽管携程集团早在 2018 年就制定了「在 5 年内将海外业务占比提升至 40%-50%」 的战略目标，但新冠疫情的冲击打乱了原有节奏，2020 年和 2021 年海外业务营收占比一度下滑至 7% 左右。 面对各类国际旅游平台的成熟发展格局，携程的海外突围之路充满挑战。 然而，近年来携程在海外市场确实取得了显著成绩。根据携程公布的 2024 年财报，海外业务收入占比已达到 14%。招银国际预测，未来三到五年内，海外业务预计将贡献集团约 20% 的收入，有望成为携程重要的增长 引擎。在与其他海外在线旅游平台的竞争中，Statista 数据显示，2024 年 Trip.com 的下载量超过 3130 万次， 排名第四，仅次于 Booking、Airbnb 和 Expedia。 那么， 携程海外版究竟采用了哪些策略来吸引海外用户？在国际市场扩张方面 ...

6月12日，途牛旅游网披露2025年第一季度业绩报告。财报显示，途牛2025年一季度净营收为1.175亿元，同比增长8.9%；净亏损为535.20万元，2024年同期 净利润为2190万元。 | | Quarter Ended | Quarter Ended | Quarter Ended | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | March 31, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | March 31, 2025 | | | RMB | RMB | RMB | | Revenues | | | | | Packaged tours | 82,951 | 75,440 | 98,969 | | Others | 25,007 | 27,292 | 18,547 | | Net revenues | 107,958 | 102,732 | 117,516 | | Cost of revenues | (25,913) | (32,935) | (48,169) | | Gross profit | 82,045 | 69.797 | 69,347 | 事实上，途牛的盈利之 ...

不过，在线住宿预订服务行业在持续高速增长的同时也面临许多问题，如入住时无房，无法更改或取消 预订，服务描述与实际服务严重不一致，用户敏感、隐私和财务数据泄露等。携程研究院文旅产业及数 据中心主任姜文恒坦言，在平台实际运行中，确实曾遇到类似挑战，如在退改服务上，不同供应商政策 不一，用户理解成本较高；在支付服务上，境外用户的支付偏好和技术习惯差异，导致体验不一致；在 平台责任边界方面，用户对"平台中介"与"住宿服务提供方"的区分并不清晰，也容易引发消费纠纷。 在数字化和全球化迅猛发展的今天，线上平台已成为游客出行时预订住房的主流方式，人们对便捷旅游 的需求持续增长。据统计，近年来，全球在线住宿预订市场规模年均增速超10%。 近期，由中国牵头制定的《旅游及相关服务在线旅游机构（OTA） 在线住宿预订平台服务指南》（ISO 9468:2025）和《展览与活动第1部分：术语》（ISO 25639-1:2025）两项国际标准，陆续由国际标准化 组织（ISO）正式发布。这是继2024年底国际标准化组织发布首个由中国牵头的旅游信息咨询服务国际 标准之后，又推出的两项重要成果。 "此次发布的《旅游及相关服务在线旅游机构（OT ...

证券研究报告 同程旅行 (780 HK) 港股通 1Q25 业绩：仍处在利润率上行期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 同程公布 1Q25 业绩：收入 44 亿元，yoy+13.2%，基本符合 VA 一致预期 的 43 亿元（简称预期），调整后净利润 7.9 亿元，超预期 8%，主要来自于 精细化运营补贴下，产品毛利率超预期。公司持续深挖用户价值，1Q 平均 月付费用户 yoy+9.2%，并推进补贴优化和运营效率提升。4 月公司亦通过 收购万达酒店管理公司强化产业链协同，重点发展酒店管理业务作为第二增 长曲线。我们看好国内旅游的需求韧性，公司有望持续通过用户价值挖掘、 促进产业链整合获得长期收入增长和利润释放。维持"买入"评级 收入符合预期，旅游需求韧性下深挖用户价值 公司 1Q25 收入 44 亿元，yoy+13.2%，基本符合预期，拆分来看，核心 OTA 业务中，住宿/交通/其他业务相较预期分别-0.1%/+2.2%/+0.6%，各项业务 发展稳健且基本符合预期。度假业务因东南亚 ...

2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]