Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a loss attributable to equity holders of approximately HKD 35 million to HKD 45 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a profit of HKD 4 million in the same period last year, primarily due to a revenue decrease of 5% to 15% [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The global economy continues to be affected by geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to a slowdown in economic growth [1] - In the Hong Kong dining market, local customers are increasingly shopping in mainland China, and there is a shift in consumption patterns among mainland Chinese travelers, resulting in a challenging overall operating environment [1] - The industry faces reduced large-scale corporate banquets and celebrations, intense market competition, and a general consumer preference for takeout over dine-in options [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - In response to the challenging market environment, the company is launching more attractive menus and promoting products that cater to market and customer preferences [1] - The company is implementing strict controls on ingredient and operational costs to enhance efficiency [1] - The company aims to leverage technology to improve product and service quality, while also enhancing brand awareness through online and offline marketing channels to boost market competitiveness and promote sustainable business development [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for Samsonite, but it discusses the company's performance and outlook in detail, indicating a cautious but optimistic long-term view from management [5][12]. Core Insights - Samsonite's revenue and profit declined in 1H25, with net sales at USD 1.662 billion, down 6.0% YoY, primarily due to weak demand in North America and Asia [2][8]. - Gross profit was USD 984 million, with a gross margin of 59.2%, down 1.0 percentage point YoY, affected by lower sales from higher-margin regions and increased promotions [2][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 19.4% YoY to USD 269 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% [2][8]. - Management remains optimistic about long-term consumption demand despite short-term pressures from trade policy changes and macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, net sales were USD 1.662 billion, down 6.0% YoY, with gross profit at USD 984 million, down 7.6% YoY, and adjusted net profit at USD 123 million, down 29.1% YoY [2][8]. - The adjusted free cash flow was USD 11.5 million, a decrease of USD 70 million YoY, with net debt increasing to USD 1.162 billion [2][8]. Regional Performance - Revenue in Asia was USD 626 million, down 7.3% YoY, with significant declines in China, South Korea, and Hong Kong [3][9]. - North America saw revenue of USD 561 million, down 7.7% YoY, with all brands declining, particularly American Tourister [3][9]. - Europe experienced modest growth, with revenue at USD 379 million, up 1.6% YoY, driven by strong performance in Germany [3][9]. Channel Performance - The DTC channel share rose to 39.6%, with e-commerce accounting for 11.3% and offline retail at 28.3% [4][10]. - Wholesale revenue fell 7.4% YoY, primarily due to cautious procurement by wholesale customers amid economic uncertainty [4][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is addressing tariff impacts through price increases and supplier negotiations, aiming to offset negative effects in North America [5][11]. - Management plans to enhance brand competitiveness through product innovation and expansion of the Tumi brand [5][11]. Management Outlook - Management expects improvement in the Chinese and Indian markets in the second half of 2025, with a generally stronger performance in the second half compared to the first [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in sales revenue and adjusted net income for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties and weakened consumer sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, the company's sales revenue was $1,661.7 million, down from $1,768.5 million for the same period in 2024, representing a decrease of $106.8 million or 6.0% (5.2% decrease on a constant currency basis) [1] - The decline in sales revenue was attributed to increased caution among wholesale customers in their purchasing decisions and a reduction in consumer demand [1] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for the six months ending June 30, 2025, was 59.2%, a decrease of 100 basis points from 60.2% for the same period in 2024, mainly due to unfavorable changes in regional sales mix and strategic promotional measures [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ending June 30, 2025, was $268.7 million, down $64.8 million or 19.4% from $333.5 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to the decline in sales revenue [1] Group 3: Net Income - Adjusted net income for the six months ending June 30, 2025, was $123.4 million, a decrease of $50.6 million or 29.1% from $174.0 million for the same period in 2024 [2]

全球金融市场正上演一场引人注目的高空钢索表演。在人工智能（AI）狂热的推动下，美 国股市，特别是科技板块，屡创新高，纳斯达克与标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）逼近历史 性里程碑。投资者似乎对特朗普政府的关税威胁和潜在的经济逆风视而不见，沉浸在"坏消 息就是好消息"的叙事中，坚信疲软的经济数据将加速美联储（Fed）的降息步伐。然而，这 场看似无懈可击的牛市背后，潜藏着一系列不容忽视的脆弱性与风险，构成了一场极其复杂 且高风险的市场平衡术。 首先是宏观信号的模糊性。7月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）可能显示核心商品通胀因关税传导而再次 加速，这将与市场已完全消化的降息预期形成冲突。当前市场所依赖的"金发姑娘"叙事——经济增长既 要足够疲软以证明宽松政策的合理性，又不能弱到危及企业盈利——是一种极其脆弱的平衡，更像是 在"走钢索"而非处于"最佳平衡点"。任何超出预期的通胀数据都可能打破这种微妙的平衡。 其次是估值过高与情绪狂热。美国市场的周期调整市盈率（CAPE ratio）已高于历史上98%的时间点， 逼近网络泡沫时期的"鼻血"峰值。列夫科维奇指数（Levkovich Index）等情绪指标也已达到"狂热"水 ...

Core Insights - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) reported mixed second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings missing estimates but revenues exceeding expectations [1][7] - Quarterly earnings per share were $1.55, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and declining 13.4% year over year [1][7] - Revenues totaled $21.2 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.8 billion but decreasing 2.7% year over year [1][7] Financial Performance - U.S. Domestic Package revenues were $14.08 billion, down 0.8% year over year, attributed to a decline in volume, partially offset by increases in air cargo and revenue per piece [3] - International Package revenues reached $4.48 billion, up 2.6% year over year, driven by a 3.9% increase in average daily volume [4] - Supply Chain Solutions revenues decreased 18.3% year over year to $2.65 billion, impacted by the divestiture of Coyote [5] Operating Profit and Margins - Adjusted operating profit for U.S. Domestic Package fell 1.4% year over year to $982 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 7% [3] - Adjusted operating profit for International Package totaled $682 million, down 17.2% year over year, with an adjusted operating margin of 15.2% [4] - Overall adjusted operating margin for UPS was 8.8% [5] Guidance and Outlook - UPS did not provide revenue or operating profit guidance for 2025 due to macro-economic uncertainty, which has disappointed investors [2][7] - The company affirmed capital expenditures of approximately $3.5 billion, dividend payments of around $5.5 billion, and completed share repurchases of about $1.0 billion [6] - UPS expects to achieve $3.5 billion in expense reductions from network reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined initiatives [6]

Core Viewpoint - ASML reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with net orders of €5.5 billion, a 41% increase quarter-over-quarter, but the stock price plummeted due to management's cut in growth expectations [1][6] Financial Performance: Surprising Results with Conservative Guidance - UBS reported ASML's Q2 net sales reached €7.7 billion, with EBIT exceeding consensus by 12%; net orders were €5.5 billion (up 41% year-over-year, flat quarter-over-quarter), with EUV orders accounting for 42% [2] - ASML's Q2 sales were €7.6 billion, with a gross margin of 53.7% (exceeding guidance of 51.5% and consensus of 51.9%); diluted EPS was €5.9 [2] - JPMorgan highlighted that Q2 orders exceeded expectations by 32%, but Q3 sales guidance was 6.8% lower than consensus, reflecting a dilution effect on gross margin from high NA tool revenue recognition [2] Chinese Market: Declining Revenue Share but Strategic Importance Remains - ASML's Q2 revenue from China decreased by 3% quarter-over-quarter and 35% year-over-year, accounting for 27% of total sales, but is still expected to exceed 25% for the year [3] - Both UBS and JPMorgan noted that ASML's order performance serves as a bellwether for the semiconductor equipment industry, with long-term demand in China supporting ASML's revenue base despite geopolitical risks [3] Technological Upgrades: High NA Tools Driving Future Growth - ASML confirmed revenue from high NA tools (e.g., NXE:3800s) in Q2, with both UBS and JPMorgan mentioning the impact of such orders on gross margin [4] - UBS indicated that revenue recognition from high NA tools will dilute gross margin in the second half of 2025, while JPMorgan emphasized that upgrade revenue positively contributed to Q2 gross margin [4] Capital Operations: Buyback Plan Demonstrates Confidence - JPMorgan noted that ASML repurchased €1.4 billion in stock during Q2, while UBS did not mention any buyback plans, reflecting differing focuses between the two institutions [5] 2026 Outlook: Cautious Language Sparks Market Divergence - Management expressed a "reserved" attitude towards growth in 2026, stating readiness for growth but unable to confirm it, leading to differing interpretations from the two institutions [6] - UBS warned that growth preparations for 2026 face "high macroeconomic uncertainty," potentially leading to a 5%-10% EPS downgrade; JPMorgan believes ASML's high market share and U.S. semiconductor manufacturing policies will mitigate some cyclical risks [6] Conclusion: Cautious Optimism Amidst Stability - Both UBS and JPMorgan's reports outline ASML's current situation: Q2 performance exceeded expectations, but Q3 guidance is conservative; revenue from the Chinese market is declining, yet its strategic position remains solid [7] - High NA tools present short-term gross margin pressure but are crucial for technological upgrades; ASML is viewed as one of the most resilient equipment manufacturers in the semiconductor industry, balancing short-term volatility with long-term value [7]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC indicates that its capital expenditure planning will take into account macroeconomic uncertainties, and the likelihood of a sudden significant decrease in capital expenditure is low [1] Group 1 - TSMC is considering macroeconomic uncertainties in its capital expenditure planning [1] - The company believes that a sudden large decline in capital expenditure is unlikely [1]

Group 1 - The company, TSMC, indicates that it will take into account macroeconomic uncertainties in its capital expenditure planning [1]

Group 1 - The company, TSMC, emphasizes that its capital expenditure planning will take into full consideration the uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS suggest that gold is one of the best investment options following the recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration [1] - Morgan Stanley's analysts expect a weaker dollar to benefit commodities and rising US inflation to attract funds into precious metals, with Chinese policies potentially acting as a bullish factor [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its fourth-quarter gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, citing support from central bank and investment demand, a weaker dollar, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its forecast that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and rise to $4,000 by mid-2026, supported by central bank and ETF inflows [3][4] - UBS recommends buying gold as a hedge against policy risks, despite viewing the recent tariff increases as a negotiation tactic [4] - UBS analysts predict that the effective US tariff rate will stabilize around 15%, which is less than the recently announced rates of 30% to 35%, supporting continued gains in the S&P 500 [4]