证券研究报告 | 2025年10月12日 基金周报 央行连续 11 个月增持黄金储备，7 只 ETF 产品规模超千亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周A股市场主要宽基指数走势出现分化，上证综指、中 证 500、沪深 300 收益靠前，收益分别为 0.37%、-0.19%、-0.51%， 创业板指、科创 50、深证成指收益靠后，收益分别为-3.86%、-2.85%、 -1.26%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 有色金属、煤炭、钢铁收益靠前，收益分别为 4.35%、4.30%、3.67%， 传媒、消费者服务、电子收益靠后，收益分别为-3.58%、-2.81%、-2.52%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 16423 亿元，逆回购到期 26633 亿元，净公开市场投放 10210 亿元。除 1 年期和 5 年期外，不同期期限 的国债利率有所下行，利差缩窄 2.33BP。上周中证转债指数上涨 0.03%， 累计成交 1358 亿元，较前一周减少 169 亿元。 上周共上报 13 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所减少。申报的产品包括 1 只 FOF，博时中证机器人 ETF ...

6、净申购（亿元）：计算公式为：NETBUY(T) = NAV(T)–NAV(T-1)*（1+R（T）），其中NETBUY(T)为净申购金额，NAV(T-1)为前一交易日的ETF净值。 7、T+0：是否支持T+0的交易方式。 8、机构持仓占比为ETF基金最近一期年报、半年报披露的机构持仓占比，剔除对应联接基金持有占比，数据为预估值可能存在偏差。 数据说明： 1、本表针对ETF各类日频数据进行每日跟踪，不构成投资建议。 2、本表根据ETF追踪指数类别进一步分为"宽基"/"主题"两个子表。其中"宽基" ETF跟踪指数为沪深300、中证500、中证A500等主流宽基指数；"主题" ETF跟踪 指数为非银、红利、中概互联等某行业/风格指数。 3、基金池构建：在每个类型中选取规模较大的一只或几只ETF基金进行分析。 4、 RSI相对强弱指标：计算公式为：RSI = 100 – 100 / (1 + RS)，其中RSI是一定周期（12天）内平均涨幅和平均跌幅的比值。RSI>70，市场处于超买状态； RSI<30，市场处于超卖状态。 5、日内行情趋势：采用5分钟级别的日内成交价构成的趋势图，其中红点为当日最高价和最低价，由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in investor behavior towards industry-themed ETFs, particularly in the context of increased market volatility, with a notable preference for sectors with reasonable valuations and high earnings certainty [3][5][6]. Summary by Sections ETF Market Trends - From September 1 to September 9, 12 industry-themed ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with battery ETFs emerging as a new favorite among investors [1][3]. - The battery ETFs, including Guangfa Battery ETF, Huatai-PB Battery 50 ETF, and CMB Battery ETF, attracted net inflows of 3.523 billion yuan, 2.297 billion yuan, and 2.117 billion yuan respectively during this period [3][6]. Sector Rotation - There has been a clear rotation of funds from technology sectors like chips and artificial intelligence to high-growth sectors such as batteries and brokerages, reflecting a preference for assets with reasonable valuations and earnings certainty [5][6]. - The total net inflow for battery-themed ETFs exceeded 10 billion yuan from September 1 to September 9, with significant returns observed in the previous month [6][7]. Performance of Broker ETFs - The Guotai Securities ETF recorded a net inflow of 5.084 billion yuan from September 1 to September 9, marking it as the only ETF to surpass 5 billion yuan in inflows during this period [9][10]. - The overall market activity has remained high, benefiting brokerages, which are directly impacted by trading volumes and margin financing [10]. Cross-Border ETF Activity - There has been a notable inflow into Hong Kong stock ETFs, with 15.36 billion yuan flowing in from September 1 to September 5, indicating growing investor confidence in the Hong Kong market [11]. Changing Investment Behavior - Since June, non-broad-based ETFs have seen rapid growth, with net inflows reaching 227.9 billion yuan from June to August, while broad-based ETFs experienced significant outflows [13]. - The shift towards non-broad-based ETFs suggests a change in how retail investors are entering the market, with ETFs becoming a preferred investment vehicle due to their flexibility and lower costs [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy industry chain has experienced a significant surge for the third consecutive day, with key stocks like XianDao Intelligent rising over 15% and Yangguang Electric Power increasing over 12%, reaching a historical high [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index, a broad-based index, rebounded by 2% due to the strong performance of the new energy sector [1] - The ChiNext ETF (159977) surged by 2.89%, while the photovoltaic ETF (159857) skyrocketed by 5.33% [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Positive changes in the new energy industry chain are noted, with the lithium battery peak season approaching, and favorable pre-production schedules for September alongside ongoing breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [1] - The "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026" aims for an average growth rate of around 7% in the added value of large-scale electronic equipment manufacturing, with five provinces achieving over 1 trillion in revenue [1] - The policy is beginning to support high-end manufacturing, emphasizing high-quality development in fields like photovoltaics while addressing "involution" competition [1] Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The broad-based ETFs, by covering multiple industry leaders, inherently possess anti-rotation characteristics, allowing them to capture various hotspots simultaneously [1] - The ChiNext Index, tracked by the Tianhong ETF (159977, linked C: 001593), has seen a cumulative increase of 60% since April 9, with a recent three-day pullback of 6%, which is lower than that of the Sci-Tech Innovation Index [1] - The ChiNext Index, led by the new energy sector, comprehensively covers strategic emerging industries in China with global competitive advantages, including high-end manufacturing, information technology, and biomedicine, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 39 times, at the lowest level among broad-based indices in nearly a decade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with significant selling pressure and a notable drop in major indices, indicating a cautious market sentiment and potential for further volatility [3][5][10]. Market Performance - The three major indices in A-shares all retreated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component down 2.83% to 12118.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 4.25% to 2776.25 points [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25.443 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3][6]. Sector Analysis - The banking sector played a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with the four major banks contributing 11.2 points to the Shanghai Composite Index, preventing a larger decline [5]. - Despite the overall market downturn, the semiconductor sector led the decline with a drop of 5.38%, while the communications equipment sector followed closely with a 3.81% decrease [7]. - The new energy sector, particularly solar and battery stocks, showed resilience, with Longi Green Energy rising 1.2% and CATL experiencing a slight decline of 1.6% [7]. Capital Flow - There was a significant outflow of capital, with 110 billion yuan leaving the market, including 99 billion yuan from internet services and 66 billion yuan from software development sectors [6][7]. - The continuous outflow from technology stocks over the past four days indicates a retreat from the previous speculative fervor in these sectors [7]. Market Sentiment - The market displayed a mixed sentiment, with a notable number of small-cap stocks showing resilience despite the overall decline, suggesting some investor confidence remains [6]. - The lack of significant volume in broad-based ETFs indicates uncertainty about the involvement of institutional investors in stabilizing the market [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market decline may be a temporary adjustment within an ongoing bullish trend, although opinions vary on the timing of potential rebounds [10].

Core Insights - The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 ETF has seen a significant expansion, with a total scale increase of nearly 400 billion yuan over the past year, making it one of the most notable categories in the broad-based ETF market this year [1] Group 1 - The Huatai-PineBridge Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 ETF and the E Fund Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 ETF have shown particularly strong performance, each increasing by over 100 billion yuan in scale this year, reaching 132.557 billion yuan and 105.683 billion yuan respectively [1] - The expansion of the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 ETF is primarily driven by net asset value growth, which is a result of both the index rebound and net capital inflows, further amplifying the overall scale [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hu-Shen 300 ETF has significantly expanded in scale, growing nearly 400 billion yuan over the past year, making it one of the most notable categories in the broad-based ETF market this year [1][3]. Group 1: Scale Growth - As of August 28, the Hu-Shen 300 ETF has achieved a remarkable expansion, with a total scale increase of nearly 400 billion yuan, becoming a focal point in the broad-based ETF market [1][3]. - The Huatai-PineBridge Hu-Shen 300 ETF and the E Fund Hu-Shen 300 ETF have shown outstanding performance, each increasing by over 100 billion yuan this year, reaching 132.557 billion yuan and 105.683 billion yuan respectively [2][3]. - The expansion of the Hu-Shen 300 ETF is primarily driven by net asset value growth, with the index's recovery contributing over 300 billion yuan to net value growth, totaling 338.743 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The Hu-Shen 300 ETF has become a crucial channel for capital entry, favored by both institutional and individual investors due to its broad coverage and strong representativeness [3][4]. - The overall scale of the Hu-Shen 300 ETF has increased by over 183.252 billion yuan this year, with significant growth observed over various time frames, indicating its central role in market allocation [4]. Group 3: Investor Preferences - In a recovering market environment, broad-based ETFs are increasingly seen as a mainstream choice for investors, with the Hu-Shen 300 index being viewed as a reliable barometer for market trends [5][6]. - The shift in investor structure has led to a growing acceptance of the "buy index" concept, with more investors recognizing the stability of sharing overall market performance through ETFs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant positive developments since August, with total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 100 trillion yuan in total market capitalization for the first time, indicating a strong market recovery and investor enthusiasm [1][2]. Market Trends - The A-share market is characterized by increasing structural differentiation and rapid style rotation, making it challenging to accurately identify the main investment themes. Various sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals have emerged as focal points, while defensive assets with high dividends and low valuations have also gained traction amid uncertain economic recovery expectations [2][3]. - Historical data shows that during initial phases of market rallies, industry rotation occurs rapidly, complicating the ability to capture main themes effectively. This has been evident in previous market cycles, where significant fluctuations in industry rotation indices were observed [3]. Investment Strategy - A suggested approach for investors is to focus on broad-based ETFs, which can simplify market dynamics and reduce decision-making complexity. These ETFs allow investors to capture market trends without being overly influenced by the rapid shifts in specific sectors [5][6]. - Broad-based indices tend to have a more stable performance due to their diversified nature, which can mitigate risks associated with individual sector volatility. For instance, the CSI 300 Index has shown a maximum drawdown of only -15.67% since the market recovery began, compared to over -16% for many individual sectors [6]. ETF Options - The market offers a variety of broad-based indices, such as the CSI 300 Index and the CSI A500 Index, which provide extensive coverage of core A-share assets. These indices are suitable for long-term investment strategies [7][8]. - The CSI A500 Index emphasizes the importance of industry leaders and includes a significant proportion of new economy sectors, making it a compelling option for investors looking to benefit from China's economic transformation [10]. - The STAR Market ETF focuses heavily on the semiconductor industry, reflecting the growing importance of this sector in the current market landscape [11]. Conclusion - The current A-share market presents a range of investment opportunities, particularly through broad-based ETFs that can help investors navigate the complexities of market dynamics while capturing overall market performance. Investors are encouraged to select ETFs that align with their risk preferences and investment goals [12][13].

Market Overview - A-share major indices showed mixed performance on August 26, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, ChiNext Index down 0.76%, STAR Market Composite Index down 0.99%, and CSI A500 Index down 0.41% [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.68 trillion yuan, with over 2,800 stocks rising [3] ETF Performance - Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) had a trading volume of 107 million yuan on the same day, with a net subscription of 16 million units [3] - The top-performing stocks in the ChiNext Index included Tianfu Communication (300394) up 11.93%, Guiding Compass (300803) up 8.43%, and Yilian Network (300628) up 5.24% [3] - Tianhong STAR Market ETF (589860) saw a turnover of 9.74% with a transaction volume of 41.68 million yuan, led by Electric Wind Power (688660) up 20.00%, Kaipu Cloud (688228) up 20.00%, and Maide Medical (688310) up 15.55% [4] - Tianhong CSI A500 ETF (159360) had a turnover of 3.17% with a transaction volume of 56.38 million yuan, with Tianfu Communication (300394) leading at 11.93%, followed by Wuchan Zhongda (600704) up 10.07% and Guanglian Da (002410) up 10.03% [4] Recent Trends - Over the past week, Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) increased by 5.49%, Tianhong STAR Market ETF (589860) rose by 8.17%, and Tianhong CSI A500 ETF (159360) gained 5.80% [4][5] - Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 492 million yuan and 14 million units over the past week [5] Fund Flows - Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) reported a net inflow of 45.63 million yuan, with a total net inflow of 61.66 million yuan over the last five trading days [6] Industry Insights - The domestic software sector saw a significant rise, driven by the launch of the Galaxy Kirin Operating System V1, marking a key milestone in the domestic operating system field [6] - The new system aims to enhance operational experience, security, and ecosystem richness, providing a new foundation for AI application deployment and industrial digital transformation [6] - In the current market environment, broad-based ETFs are favored for their ability to cover multiple industry leaders and mitigate rotation risks [6][7] Market Sentiment - Consensus on an upward trend in the market is gradually strengthening, with Huatai Securities noting that abundant liquidity remains a key foundation for the market [7] - Even if adjustments occur, they are not expected to be significant, as the market is entering a consensus on an upward trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is favoring the CSI A500 ETF (159338) as it continues to see significant inflows and trading volume, particularly after the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI A500 ETF has seen a net inflow of over 200 million yuan for two consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The trading volume of the CSI A500 ETF is continuously increasing, reflecting heightened market activity [1]. Group 2: Index Characteristics - The CSI A500 Index offers comprehensive and balanced industry coverage, achieving 100% industry representation and employing industry-neutral processing, making it a better representative of the A-share market [1]. - The index includes leading companies from 76 sub-industries classified as "Dragon One" and also incorporates firms from "Dragon Two" and "Dragon Three" categories [1]. - Approximately 50% of the CSI A500 Index constituents are from traditional value sectors, while the other 50% are from emerging growth sectors, providing a balance between growth potential and risk mitigation [1].