翰森制药 20250718 摘要 翰森制药受集采影响，2021-2023 年仿制药收入下滑，但自 2023 年起， 创新药收入显著增长，研发投入从 2020 年的 12 亿元增至 2024 年的 27 亿元，预计今年突破 30 亿元，占营收比例达 22%。 公司肿瘤板块聚焦肺癌、胃肠道肿瘤及妇科肿瘤，以阿美替尼为基石， 开发联合疗法，并积极布局双抗、ADC、小分子抑制剂等技术。非肿瘤 领域则聚焦代谢、自免及中枢神经系统疾病。 翰森制药过去三年达成四项对外授权交易，总金额约 20 亿美元，体现 研发管线得到海外头部 MNC 认可。同时，公司通过引入外部管线，如 EGFR c MA 双抗，增强研发实力。 阿美替尼已获批多个适应症并纳入医保，预计今年收入超 60 亿元，峰 值预期 80 亿元。公司计划通过联合疗法延长其生命周期并提升销售峰 值，巩固其国产三代 EGFR TKI 领先地位。 公司肿瘤领域接棒品种包括多个 ADC，如 EGFR CMET 双抗 ADC（肺 癌）、BCH3 ADC（小细胞肺癌、肉瘤）、BCH4 ADC（妇科肿瘤）等， 其中 BCH3 ADC 已与 GSK 达成授权协议，收取 1.85 亿首 ...

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has issued guidelines for the adjustment of the basic medical insurance catalog and the commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog for 2025, marking the first inclusion of commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog in the adjustment plan [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) has shown impressive performance, with a year-to-date increase of 67%, following the completion of a "purity revolution" that removed five CXO companies, focusing entirely on leading innovative drug firms [1][2] - The new index ensures "purity" through a three-tier screening process: excluding CXO companies, scoring based on R&D investment, and semi-annual rebalancing [1] Group 2 - The policy environment is favorable, with accelerated pilot programs for Class B medical insurance catalogs and CAR-T drugs included in "Huibao" for three consecutive years, with a maximum reimbursement of 500,000 yuan; nearly 40 innovative drugs are expected to be approved in the first half of 2025, potentially exceeding 50 for the entire year [2] - In the first five months of 2025, the total amount of license-out transactions by Chinese innovative drug companies reached 45.5 billion USD, surpassing the total for the first half of 2024, indicating a global revaluation of innovative drug value [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) has significant holdings in companies like BeiGene and CanSino Biologics, with recent net inflows exceeding 17 million yuan and a 120% year-on-year increase in overseas sales for its holdings [3] - The EasyGo Innovative Drug ETF (516080) covers leading firms like HengRui Medicine, with a scale exceeding 400 million yuan, while the Medical ETF (512010) has a scale of over 20 billion yuan, with 35% allocated to innovative drugs, suitable for conservative investors [3] Group 4 - The innovative drug development success rate is below 10%, and some individual stocks may experience increased volatility due to speculative trading [4] - A "core + satellite" strategy is recommended, focusing 60%-70% on the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF and EasyGo Innovative Drug ETF, complemented by a diversified approach through the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF [4] - The combination of policy support and industry upgrades presents a historic opportunity for innovative drugs in 2025, with EasyGo providing efficient access for investors to participate in this transformation [4]

华福证券 2025 年 7 月 1 日 医疗与消费周报——2025 中国生命科学行业概 览 投资要点： ➢ 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业均录得正收益，表现良好。 2、展望未来，得益于政府的大力提供支持、资金的持续投入以及 监管改革不断简化审批流程和促进创新，中国生命科学企业的交易活 动前景较为乐观，预计 2024 年后将出现强劲增长。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、脑机接口医疗器械首批国标启动制定—— 2025.06.30 2、新能源价格见底或是价格复苏的重要信号—— 产业经济周观点——2025.06.30 3、沪指创年内新高后怎么看？——2025.06.29 ➢ 风险提示 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 告 华福证券 | 1 医疗新观察 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 2 医药板块行情回顾（6.23—6.27） | 4 | | 3 医疗产业热点跟踪 | 5 | | 4 风险提示 | 6 | 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读 ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in China has experienced significant growth in 2023, exemplifying a narrative of China's rise in the capital market, with the Huatai-PB Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF increasing by 57.87% year-to-date and numerous stocks doubling in value [1]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Chinese innovative drug companies are entering a "Deepseek" moment, a culmination of two decades of development, as stated by industry analysts [2][10]. - The recent surge in the innovative drug sector is attributed to the performance of leading pharmaceutical companies, driven by increased sales of commercialized innovative drugs and a surge in licensing deals for clinical trial assets [4][10]. - The total amount of licensing deals by Chinese innovative drug companies reached $45.5 billion in the first five months of 2025, surpassing the total for the first half of 2024, indicating a robust growth in international licensing transactions [8]. Group 2: Company Highlights - A notable example is BeiGene, which created China's first billion-dollar blockbuster drug, Zebrutinib, achieving global sales of $1.3 billion in 2023 [6]. - BeiGene is projected to generate $3.8 billion in revenue in 2024, with Zebrutinib contributing $2.6 billion, leading to a reduction in the company's losses [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the innovative drug sector in China is on a long-term upward trajectory, with the industry poised for a growth phase characterized by the approval of new drugs and increased licensing revenue [11][12]. - The next 3-5 years are expected to see accelerated globalization and a shift towards original innovation in the Chinese innovative drug sector, with companies that have strong pipelines and clinical advantages likely to lead the next growth wave [13]. - Despite recent market volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a return to reasonable valuations as innovative results continue to materialize [16].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on June 24, with a V-shaped rebound in the innovative drug sector, as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index showed fluctuations, with stocks like Jingtai Holdings rising over 3% and others like Aosheng Pharmaceutical-B and Rongchang Bio rising nearly 2% [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) also experienced a V-shaped rebound, increasing by 1.92% with a trading volume exceeding 1.3 billion yuan, closely tracking the performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index [1] - Recent months have seen significant foreign licensing deals from Chinese innovative drug companies, including a deal from 3SBio worth over 6 billion USD and a strategic R&D cooperation agreement between CSPC and AstraZeneca valued at 5.33 billion USD, highlighting the increasing value of Chinese innovative drug products [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical industry has recently received positive policy signals, with the NMPA optimizing the clinical trial review and approval process, leading to a steady increase in clinical trial numbers, benefiting innovative drug companies with differentiated capabilities and the CXO industry [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new listing standards for the third board of the Growth Enterprise Market and the fifth board of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, broadening financing channels for unprofitable innovative drug companies and alleviating cash flow pressures [2] - It is recommended to focus on innovative drug companies with clear clinical value and strong commercialization capabilities, as well as CXO enterprises with international potential, to seize valuation recovery opportunities driven by policy catalysts [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is gaining competitive advantages globally, particularly in population, domestic demand, manufacturing, and supply chain capabilities, with rapid innovation driving more companies to expand internationally [1][2] - The U.S. leads in innovation, early-stage research, and high pricing, influencing market selection and supply chain strategies for companies [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Positive changes are occurring within the pharmaceutical supply chain, including optimized generic drug procurement rules, profitability for leading innovative drug companies in the domestic market, steady progress in medical insurance negotiations, and accelerated domestic substitution due to policy and industrial collaboration [1][4] - The first half of 2025 saw a record high in upfront payments for international licensing of Chinese innovative drugs, reaching $3.19 billion, expected to surpass 2024's total [1][5] - The medical device sector is facing challenges from procurement and bidding impacts, with Q1 performance under pressure but anticipated high growth in Q2 and beyond [1][6][7] - CXO (Contract Research Organization) demand is recovering overseas, with significant improvements in orders from the U.S. and Europe, indicating strong growth potential for Chinese companies in international markets [1][8] Additional Important Content - The investment strategy for the pharmaceutical industry in mid-2025 emphasizes "rooted domestically, expanding internationally," focusing on China's integration into the global supply chain and the need to assess companies from a global perspective [2] - The medical device industry is expected to see a new round of upgrades in the second half of the year, with potential new policies in 2026 [3][9] - The raw material drug sector is divided into two main lines: opportunities from patent cliffs and specialty raw materials, and vertical integration within the supply chain [3][14] - The blood products industry is projected to stabilize with growth opportunities in the second half of 2025, despite challenges in Q1 due to supply and pricing issues [15][67] - The vaccine industry is under pressure but has long-term growth potential due to ongoing innovation and market recovery [68][71] Company-Specific Insights - Companies like Mindray are highlighted for their long-term value and global expansion potential, with a focus on high-value consumables and medical devices [9][10] - In the A-share market, companies such as Spring Life and Huatai Medical are recommended for investment, particularly those with international expansion strategies [12] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like Aikang Medical and Spring Life are noted for their strong performance and investment potential [13][56] Future Trends and Opportunities - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see continued growth driven by domestic demand and international market expansion, with a focus on innovative drug development and strategic partnerships [39][66] - The medical device sector is likely to benefit from policy-driven improvements and technological advancements, with significant opportunities for companies that can adapt to changing market conditions [9][49] - The IVD (in vitro diagnostics) sector is expanding through acquisitions and technological advancements, with companies like Antu Bio and Shengxiang actively enhancing their capabilities [61][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the pharmaceutical and medical device industries in China.

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 创新出海趋势不变，重磅BD仍可期待 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （维持） 2025年06月22日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1. 创新出海趋势不变，重磅BD有望继续催化估值提升 创新出海是本轮创新药价值重估的重要推动因素，其价值的锚点在于BD估值水平的变化，尤其是PD-1/VEGF为代表的双抗。 从康方生物与SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS 的合作开始到6月2日，BMS与BioNTech达成一项超90亿美元的交易，海外MNC 对PD-1双抗的价值认知和交易金额在快速提高。根据医药魔方数据，2025年Q1，中国医药交易数量同比增加34%，而交 易总金额同比增加222%，单项交易金额提升显著。从合作窗口来看，早期项目也在增加，6月13日，石药集团与阿斯利康 达成合作协议，协议合作主体为临床前的小分子，因此首付款相对于总里程碑的比例较小。三生制药、百利天恒等重磅BD 交易能一次获得高额首付款的重要基础在于大病种、领先优势和BIC潜力。从目前国内创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals at the ASCO annual meeting, highlighting both the achievements and the underlying challenges faced by the industry, particularly regarding the trend of early-stage pipeline licensing to international firms [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in Chinese Pharmaceutical Innovation - A record 73 studies from China were presented at the ASCO annual meeting, marking a significant milestone for the country's innovative drug sector [1]. - Morgan Stanley raised target prices for three leading pharmaceutical companies by 20%, citing that Chinese original research has surpassed multinational companies in the number of studies presented in the solid tumor field [1]. - The topic of "China's rise in innovative drugs" garnered over 200 million views on social media, indicating strong public interest and recognition [1]. Group 2: Concerns Over Early-Stage Licensing - There has been a 300% year-on-year increase in the transaction value of early-stage pipeline licensing from Chinese companies, with 60% occurring in the preclinical stage [1][2]. - Some industry insiders express concern that this trend may undermine the future potential of Chinese companies, as it resembles uprooting promising seedlings [1][2]. - The licensing of early-stage projects is viewed as a necessary financial strategy for many biotech firms facing funding shortages, allowing them to generate immediate cash flow [2]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions and Market Dynamics - The debate over whether to sell early-stage assets or retain them for future development reflects a broader discussion about the sustainability of the industry [3][8]. - Companies like Innovent Biologics have faced backlash for perceived undervaluation of their assets, leading to significant stock price drops [5][6]. - The decision to engage in business development (BD) transactions is influenced by a company's clinical development capabilities, cash flow reserves, and market conditions [7][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Trends - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing core technology development with strategic partnerships to enhance global competitiveness [17][18]. - The global pharmaceutical market is evolving, with increasing recognition of the value of Chinese innovative drugs, as evidenced by rising valuations in the biotech sector [17]. - Companies are encouraged to leverage BD strategies to navigate the challenges of high R&D costs and market competition, while also focusing on building unique and differentiated assets [13][14].

2025.06. 17 本文字数：1434，阅读时长大约3分钟 跨国制药公司正在寻求将数千万美元的预付款转化为价值数十亿美元的治疗方案。这一次，中国创新 药成为跨国企业争夺的目标。 据Global Data的一项最新数据，今年至今，美国制药公司已经签署了14项与中国药品相关的许可协 议，涉及肥胖症疗法、心脏病和癌症在研药物，潜在价值达到183亿美元。而去年同期仅达成了两项 此类交易。 到2030年前，由于大量重磅药品专利即将到期，将出现价值高达2000亿美元的药品失去专利保护。 跨国制药商正在寻求重建未来产品线，拯救所谓的"专利悬崖"。 在这一背景下，市场预计中国创新药对外授权的步伐将进一步提速。瑞穗证券在一份报告中指 出："跨国制药公司发现了中国有很多优质的创新药资产，而且这些资产的价格比他们在美国找到的 同类产品要更便宜。" 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 另据雷蒙德·詹姆斯生物科技投资银行的数据，2024年大型制药公司获得授权许可的资产中，约有三 分之一来自中国，该行预计此类许可交易的比例将进一步增至40%-50%。 投行杰富瑞分析师在5月份的一份报告中指出，跨国制药商从中国获得的药物已经不仅仅局限于口服 ...

Group 1 - By 2030, patents for blockbuster drugs worth up to $200 billion are set to expire, prompting multinational pharmaceutical companies to seek new product lines to address the "patent cliff" [1][3] - There has been a significant increase in licensing agreements between U.S. pharmaceutical companies and Chinese drug developers, with 14 agreements signed this year alone, potentially valued at $18.3 billion, compared to only two agreements in the same period last year [1][3] - Mizuho Securities reports that multinational companies are discovering high-quality innovative drug assets in China, which are priced more competitively than similar products found in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Licensing agreements allow one company to develop, produce, and commercialize another company's drugs or technologies in exchange for milestone payments, reducing development risks for sellers and providing protections for buyers [3] - Analysts indicate that the trend of Chinese innovative drugs being licensed abroad began in 2023, driven by the urgent need for foreign pharmaceutical companies to replenish their pipelines due to the patent cliff [3][4] - Chinese biotech companies are increasingly recognized for their value, with nearly 30% of global drug development attributed to China, while the U.S. share has decreased to about 48% [4] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that multinational pharmaceutical companies are expanding their interest beyond small molecule drugs to include targeted cancer therapies and novel drugs, with some already receiving FDA approval [5] - The approval of drugs developed from Chinese companies is enhancing the strategic advantage for large pharmaceutical firms, allowing them to conduct efficient early-stage clinical trials in China [5] - The surge in interest for Chinese biopharmaceutical companies has led to significant stock price increases for several U.S.-listed Chinese biotech firms, with notable gains in companies like Zai Lab and BeiGene [5]