Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [2]. Core Views - The company's performance in 1H25 showed a revenue of CNY 13.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, with a focus on licensing deals to enhance profits [14][16]. - The report anticipates that the second quarter of 2025 marked the bottom of the company's performance, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year [4][16]. Financial Performance Summary - **1H25 Results**: Revenue was CNY 13.3 billion (-18.5% y-o-y), with finished drug revenue at CNY 10.2 billion (-24% y-o-y) and API revenue at CNY 2.1 billion (+12% y-o-y). Gross profit margin (GPM) was 65.6% (-5.9 percentage points) [14][15]. - **2Q25 Results**: Revenue reached CNY 6.3 billion (-14% y-o-y), with finished drug revenue at CNY 4.7 billion (-21% y-o-y). GPM was 64.0% (-6.7 percentage points) [15][16]. - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.5 billion (-24% y-o-y) in 1H25 and CNY 1.1 billion (-24% y-o-y) in 2Q25 [14][15]. Business Development and Licensing Opportunities - The company is expected to secure three major out-licensing deals totaling over USD 5 billion within the year, with SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) anticipated to be a significant transaction [17][21]. - The report highlights the potential for the oral GLP-1 drug to expand into global markets, tapping into obesity, diabetes, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) markets [17][21]. Clinical Development Progress - SYS6010 is progressing well in both domestic and international clinical trials, with over 1,000 patients enrolled globally [18][19]. - The management is actively pursuing multiple indications for SYS6010, including breast cancer and gastrointestinal tumors, with clinical trial plans expected to commence soon [18][19]. Valuation and Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to CNY 29.4 billion and CNY 31.2 billion, respectively, reflecting the impact of volume-based procurement and negotiations [21]. - The target price is set at HKD 13.11, based on a 2026 P/E ratio of 29.1x and an EPS forecast of HKD 0.45 [21].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement on its core oncology products and a decrease in sales from the pharmaceutical segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 18.5% year-on-year to 13.27 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 15.6% to 2.55 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [1]. - The overall gross margin declined by 6.0 percentage points to 65.6%, with the pharmaceutical segment's sales contribution dropping from 83.2% in the previous year to 77.2% [1]. - The sales expense ratio decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 23.0% [1]. Pharmaceutical Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical segment's sales fell by 24.4% year-on-year to 10.25 billion yuan, including licensing fee income of 1.08 billion yuan [2]. - Sales of oncology products dropped by 60.8% to 1.05 billion yuan, accounting for 10.3% of the pharmaceutical segment's revenue, due to price reductions from centralized procurement [2]. - Sales of products for neurological diseases decreased by 28.3% due to price cuts on Enbrel [2]. - The raw materials business saw a revenue increase of 21.6% to 1.20 billion yuan, driven by higher overseas demand, while antibiotic raw materials revenue remained stable with a 0.9% increase to 879 million yuan [2]. - Revenue from functional foods and other businesses grew by 8.0% to 951 million yuan, mainly due to increased sales volume [2]. Business Development Opportunities - The company has achieved multiple business development (BD) collaborations, with four external licensing agreements since February 2025, totaling upfront payments of 260 million USD and milestone payments of 9.45 billion USD [2]. - Potential BD transactions are in communication with partners, with a total consideration of approximately 5 billion USD for each transaction [2]. - The company announced a BD collaboration with AstraZeneca in June 2025 and expects to finalize two additional transactions in the second half of the year [2]. R&D Progress - R&D expenses increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 2.68 billion yuan, with the R&D expense ratio rising by 4.6 percentage points to 20.2% [3]. - The company has 27 core pipeline products in critical II/III clinical phases, covering both oncology and non-oncology areas, including 11 biopharmaceuticals and 10 chemical drugs [3]. - The core ADC pipeline, SYS6010 (EGFR ADC), is under development for multiple indications, with ongoing clinical trials for various NSCLC types [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.30, indicating a potential downside of 11.6% from the current closing price of HKD 10.51 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face continued pressure in Q2 2025 due to centralized procurement and hospital-level medical insurance cost control, but there are optimistic prospects for a recovery in the second half of 2025 and in 2026-2027 as these pressures are expected to ease [2][7]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing research and business development (BD) efforts, which are anticipated to contribute positively to performance, alongside a rebound in the raw materials and functional foods business [2][7]. - The target price has been adjusted upwards to reflect the anticipated recovery and the reasonable current valuation, with positive catalysts and risks already factored into the stock price [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been revised down by 1.3% to RMB 29,649 million, with further reductions for 2026 and 2027 [6][14]. - The gross profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 20,161 million, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [6][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 5,568 million, an increase of 8.4% from prior forecasts [6][14]. Business Segment Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's pharmaceutical business continued to face challenges, with a 24% year-on-year decline in revenue across almost all therapeutic areas [7]. - The raw materials and functional foods segments showed resilience, with revenues increasing by 12% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - Management anticipates a revenue growth of over 5% in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, driven by market expansion and new product launches [7]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on innovative products, particularly in the oncology space, with several key trials expected to progress by the end of the year [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of BD transactions, with two significant deals expected to close by year-end, which could enhance revenue streams [7]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in various high-potential areas, including peptide long-acting formulations and mRNA vaccines, which are expected to contribute to future revenue and cash flow [7].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price increase of 51.2% to HKD 13.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance is in line with expectations, reporting revenue of CNY 13.273 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.548 billion, down 15.6% [2] Business Segment Analysis - The traditional pharmaceutical business continues to face pressure, with 2Q25 revenue of CNY 4.747 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.7%. The decline is attributed to medical insurance cost control and inventory management [3] - Specific revenue breakdown includes: - Neurology: CNY 1.847 billion (YoY -27.0%) - Oncology: CNY 0.498 billion (YoY -53.5%) - Anti-infection: CNY 0.735 billion (YoY -23.2%) - Cardiovascular: CNY 0.457 billion (YoY -10.2%) - Respiratory: CNY 0.250 billion (YoY -13.5%) - Metabolism: CNY 0.229 billion (YoY -31.3%) - Other: CNY 0.374 billion (YoY +25.1%) - Licensing revenue: CNY 0.357 billion [3] Innovation and R&D - The company has established eight innovative R&D platforms and is expected to continue monetizing external licensing agreements. Notable agreements include ROR1 ADC and irinotecan liposome, with potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 1.225 billion [4] - R&D expenditure in 2Q25 reached CNY 1.38 billion, accounting for 29.1% of traditional pharmaceutical revenue, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points. The company anticipates continued innovation output [5] - The clinical progress of the key product SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) is on track, with multiple clinical trials ongoing and a BLA expected in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance is in line with expectations, showing a decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, but there are signs of potential improvement in the second half of the year [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was 13.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.548 billion yuan, down 15.6% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 2.320 billion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year [1] - In 2Q25, the revenue from the pharmaceutical business was 4.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.7% [1] Business Segments - Revenue from the neurology segment was 1.847 billion yuan, down 27.0% year-on-year, attributed to medical insurance cost control and inventory management [1] - Oncology revenue was 0.498 billion yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year, while anti-infection revenue was 0.735 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year [1] - Cardiovascular revenue was 0.457 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, and respiratory revenue was 0.250 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year [1] - Digestive metabolism revenue was 0.229 billion yuan, down 31.3% year-on-year, while other fields generated 0.374 billion yuan, up 25.1% year-on-year [1] R&D and Innovation - The company has established eight innovative R&D platforms and is expected to continue monetizing external authorizations [2] - As of now, the company has completed several significant external authorizations with potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.225 billion USD [2] - R&D expenses in 2Q25 were 1.380 billion yuan, accounting for 29.1% of pharmaceutical revenue, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points [3] - The company's key product, SYS6010 (EGFR ADC), has entered Phase III clinical trials, with expectations for a BLA in 2026 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains largely unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 20.5x for 2025 and 17.3x for 2026 [3] - The target price has been raised by 51.2% to 13.00 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into a global exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for SYH2086, which includes development, production, and commercialization rights, while retaining rights to develop and sell other oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonists in China [4][5]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement and Financials - The agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals could yield up to $2.075 billion, including an upfront payment of $120 million and milestone payments based on development, regulatory, and commercial achievements [4]. - The company anticipates potential upfront and milestone payments from ongoing negotiations for three other projects, including SYS6010 (EGFR-ADC), totaling approximately $5 billion [5]. Group 2: Research and Development - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with expenses projected to reach 5.191 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 7.5%, representing 21.9% of the revenue from prescription drugs, which is above industry standards [6]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company has 24 projects in critical II/III clinical phases and 9 projects under review for market approval [6][7].

Group 1 - The company has entered into a global exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for SYH2086, covering development, production, and commercialization, with potential total payments of up to $2.075 billion, including an upfront payment of $120 million and milestone payments based on annual net sales [1] - SYH2086 is in the preclinical stage and has complete intellectual property rights, with expectations for significant growth in the weight loss and MASH fields following the licensing agreement [1] - The management anticipates potential upfront and milestone payments from ongoing negotiations for three other projects, including SYS6010 (EGFR-ADC), could total around $5 billion [1] Group 2 - The company continues to increase its R&D investment, with 2024 R&D expenses projected to reach ¥5.191 billion (up 7.5% year-over-year), accounting for 21.9% of its revenue from prescription drugs, which is industry-leading [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company has 24 projects in critical II/III clinical phases and 9 projects under review for market approval, indicating a robust pipeline [2] - The company is expected to achieve multiple new drug approvals and data readouts throughout the year, maintaining a strong position in business development [2] Group 3 - The company is recognized as a leading domestic pharmaceutical firm with ample cash reserves, transitioning from traditional pharmaceuticals to innovation [2] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to ¥4.92 billion and ¥5.25 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 24.9% and 23.9% from previous estimates [2] - The current valuation is considered attractive due to the expected orderly market entry of significant products, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company has entered a global exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for SYH2086, which includes potential payments totaling up to $2.075 billion, comprising an upfront payment of $120 million and milestone payments based on annual net sales [2]. - The company is focusing on innovation and transformation, with a strong pipeline of new drugs expected to be approved within the year, alongside multiple data readouts and business development (BD) opportunities [5]. - The company is actively negotiating three potential transactions, including SYS6010 (EGFR-ADC), with a total potential value of approximately $5 billion [3]. Summary by Sections Business Development and Innovation - The oral GLP-1 drug SYH2086 is in the preclinical stage and has complete intellectual property rights, with Madrigal being a leading company in the MASH field, suggesting significant global growth potential [3]. - The company has a robust R&D investment, with R&D expenses projected to reach 5.191 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.5% and accounting for 21.9% of the revenue from proprietary drugs [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to have a net profit of 4.916 billion yuan in 2025, with a decrease in profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 24.9% and 23.9%, respectively, due to new product development costs [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.43 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22x for 2025, indicating an attractive valuation given the expected orderly launch of key products [5]. Market Position and Performance - The company is recognized as a leading domestic pharmaceutical firm with ample cash reserves, positioning it well for future growth and innovation [5]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 120.404 billion HKD, with a recent trading price of 10.45 HKD per share [7].