进入2025年四季度，国内尿素市场步入传统储备季。尽管尿素日产量维持高位波动，但在储备需求集中 释放、出口集港稳步推进及复合肥行业负荷回升等多重利好因素支撑下，市场情绪较前期有所好转，尿 素企业库存呈现稳步下降态势。期现市场的价格波动既反映了短期供需格局的变化，也蕴含着对后市政 策与出口预期的预判。在此背景下，尿素价格整体呈现偏强运行特征。 近期，复合肥行业开工率上升的同时库存下降，说明其产销率开始提升。根据隆众资讯统计，复合肥产 能利用率在34.61%，环比提升4.29个百分点。从主产区看，东北地区部分装置开始低负荷生产，少数企 业满负荷生产中；湖北、山东地区部分中规模企业排产增多，拉升区域内产能利用率；河北地区前期停 车装置部分恢复生产；河南地区除规模企业产量增加外，部分中小型企业处于停车状态；西南、苏皖等 地区维持以销定产中。未来企业陆续排产冬储肥，预计复合肥产能利用率继续窄幅提升。复合肥企业库 存降至65.48万吨，与去年同期基本持平，库存压力已得到有效缓解。 出口集港缓解库存压力 出口作为调节今年尿素供需矛盾的关键因素，其表现始终是期现市场关注的焦点。强劲的出口数据不仅 缓解了国内新增产能带来的供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

尿素日报 | 2025-10-31 新单交投清淡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-30，尿素主力收盘1627元/吨（-17）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1580 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1600元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1590元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-27 元/吨（+17）；河南基差：-47元/吨（+17）；江苏基差：-37元/吨（+17）；尿素生产利润70元/吨（+0），出口利润872 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-10-30，企业产能利用率80.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为155.43 万吨（-7.59），港口样本 库存量为11.00 万吨（-10.00）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求端：截至2025-10-30，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+3.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.98%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.53日（+0.12）。 尿素现货在上周期现双涨后本周随着价格上涨成交转弱，预计短期震荡，等待驱动。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进 行中，复合肥秋季肥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] - Inter - period: On the sidelines [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, and with the rise of the futures market, spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilizer application for agriculture, and the production of autumn compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased this week. As the weather clears, the sales sentiment has improved. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week. The current national inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. Starting from late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting operations. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are still export windows. There is co - existence of port collection and departure, leading to inventory reduction. The export policy of urea may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [3] Summary by Directory Price and Spreads - Urea futures prices: The main urea contract closed at 1642 yuan/ton (+4). The prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu markets were all 1570 yuan/ton (+20). The prices of different contracts (01, 05, 09) are also presented in the report [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads are analyzed. The basis of urea in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu is - 72 yuan/ton (+16) [2] Upstream Supply - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 77.61% (-2.06%), and the in - plant inventory of enterprises was 1.63 million tons (+15,000). The gas - based and coal - based operating rates of urea, as well as the production cost and profit, are also presented in the relevant figures [2][30] Downstream Demand - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71% (+3.53%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 48.30% (-6.9%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 7.41 days (+0.7). The FOB prices of small and large - particle urea in China, as well as the CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia, are also analyzed [2][39] Urea Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the port inventory was 210,000 tons (-236,000). The in - plant inventory, port inventory, and social inventories in Guangdong and Guangxi are also presented in the figures [2][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: On - the - fence - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, accompanied by a rise in the futures market, and spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of agricultural autumn fertilization, and the production of compound fertilizer for autumn fertilization is winding down. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down plants have resumed production. The demand for compound fertilizer for winter wheat is mainly for inventory clearance, and due to heavy autumn rains, the demand for winter wheat fertilization has been postponed to mid - to - late October. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. As the weather improves, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated this week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting up, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are export windows. The export volume in September was 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both port collection and departure activities. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402 per ton on the west coast and $395 per ton on the east coast. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report presents figures on urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are included, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profit - The report shows figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][37][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][51][57]

尿素日报 | 2025-10-23 厂内库存累库速度放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-22，尿素主力收盘1621元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1540元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1540元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-81 元/吨（-12）；河南基差：-81元/吨（-12）；江苏基差：-81元/吨（-22）；尿素生产利润10元/吨（+0），出口利润992 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-10-22，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为163.02 万吨（+1.48），港口样本 库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-22，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.41日（+0.70）。 尿素现货稳定为主，伴随盘面小幅上涨，现货成交好转，但下游采购依旧谨慎。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中， 复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short - sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, considering the current low valuation of urea, it is not advisable to continue short - selling. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On October 16, compared with October 15, UR01 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (0.25%), UR05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton (0.36%), and UR09 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (0.65%), Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton ( - 0.68%), Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (0.65%), while prices in Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR increased by 4 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton ( - 0.33%), while that in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. b) Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1599 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1610 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1577 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1604 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1597 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 315,491 lots [1]. c) Trading Strategy The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - After the holiday, urea prices dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's response to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the current low valuation of urea, short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: On October 10, UR01 in Shandong was 1597 yuan/ton (-0.75% compared to October 9), in Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton (-0.65%), UR05 was 1666 yuan/ton (-0.66%), and UR09 was 1702 yuan/ton (+0.06%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, it was 1530 yuan/ton (-0.65%); in Hebei, 1600 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Northeast China, 1630 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 1550 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 126 yuan/ton (+1 yuan compared to October 9), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 69 yuan/ton (-1 yuan) [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1612 yuan/ton, the highest was 1614 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1593 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1601 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 338,864 lots [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan fell below the previous lows, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was weak. Before the National Day, the purchasing sentiment was difficult to maintain at a high level, showing regional differentiation. The overall order intake of upstream manufacturers was okay, and the subsequent prices are expected to be mainly stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in the Northeast. In the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. In September, the export window period is still ongoing, and the export of urea is accelerating. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On September 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,664 yuan/ton (-5); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was - 64 yuan/ton (-5); the basis in Henan was - 54 yuan/ton (+5); the basis in Jiangsu was - 64 yuan/ton (-15) [1] Urea Production - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%). The urea production is running at a high level, and in the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose [1][2] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 29, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%) [1] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, and the export of urea is ongoing with an accelerating rhythm, and the port inventory is being depleted. In August, 800,000 tons were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected. As of September 29, 2025, the export profit was 1,070 yuan/ton (-88) [1][2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (-3.36%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+3.80%); the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53). The industrial demand for compound fertilizers has low enthusiasm for purchasing and only purchases at low prices, while melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900), and the inventory of port samples was 496,300 tons (-19,700). The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

港口库存小幅去化，关注出口动态 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-25，尿素主力收盘1674元/吨（+1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-64 元/吨（-1）；河南基差：-64元/吨（-1）；江苏基差：-54元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（+0），出口利润1149元/ 吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-09-25，企业产能利用率85.58%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为49.63 万吨（-1.97）。 需求端：截至2025-09-25，复合肥产能利用率35.27%（-3.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.58%（+3.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-09-26 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收 单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不高 ...