| | 尿素早评20250826: 出口预期影响市场 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 変化值 変化值 | 单位 | 8月25日 | 8月22日 | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 房素期货价格 (收盘价) 山东 山西 | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1745.00 1789.00 1700.00 1610.00 | 1739.00 1782.00 1740.00 1630.00 | 6.00 7.00 -40.00 -20.00 | 0.35% 0.39% -2.30% -1.23% | | UR09 | | 元/吨 | 1714.00 | 1715.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | 河南 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1750.00 | -40.00 | -2.29% | | (小顆粒) 河北 | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1770.00 | -40.00 | ...

出口落地，尿素回归国内基本面 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年8月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 GALAXY FUTURES 2 上周观点：出口扰动，尿素震荡偏强 本周观点：出口落地，归回国内基本面 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价上涨，成交平平。山东地区主流出厂报价领涨，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥 开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，待发消耗， 预计出厂报价暂稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交转弱，待发充裕，预计出厂报价暂稳为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价弱稳，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区需求低迷，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单 量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看，装置检修陆续回归，日均产量回升至19.5万吨附近，位于同期最高水平。需求端，新一轮印标公布 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-08-22 下游开工下降，尿素震荡运行 市场分析 价格与基差：截至2025-08-22，尿素主力收盘1764元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地 区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： -4元/吨（+2）；河南基差：-4元/吨（-8）；江苏基差：-4元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润230元/吨（-10），出口利润1249 元/吨（-42）。 供应端：截至2025-08-22，企业产能利用率83.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.39 万吨（+6.65），港口样本 库存量为50.10 万吨（+3.70）。 需求端：截至2025-08-22，复合肥产能利用率40.84%（-2.64%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为46.60%（-3.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.06日（-0.23）。 近期市场出口预期有所提振，带动尿素期货震荡偏强，现货跟随上调报价，但新单成交情况一般。尿素7月出口57 万吨，较此前市场认可的出口配额来看仍有较大出口空间，需关注后续兑现情况。 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250822: 出口预期影响市场 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 变化值 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 8月20日 | (绝对值) | 英化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR09 山东 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1764.00 1737.00 1760.00 1630.00 | 1776.00 1751.00 1770.00 1630.00 | -12.00 -14.00 -10.00 0.00 | -0.56% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1797.00 | 1810.00 | -13.00 | -0.68% -0.72% | | | | | | | | | -0.80% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1780.00 | -20.00 | -1.12% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, as the international urea price is relatively strong, and the domestic market shows a clear oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the market returned to fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Currently, the daily production and operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and the overall inventory is high. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, and although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, while the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1820 (-40), the Henan spot price is 1840 (0), and the FOB China price is 2942 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1764 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1797 (-13), and the UR09 contract is 1737 (-14). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56 (-18), with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1% [4][6]. Inventory The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), including 0.968 million tons in factory inventory and 0.489 million tons in port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 3573 (0) [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E. - Production has also generally increased, and the apparent consumption has shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased over the years [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]

尿素日报 | 2025-08-20 出口情绪扰动，尿素继续上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-19，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+63）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1740 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1740元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-87 元/吨（-63）；河南基差：-77元/吨（-63）；江苏基差：-77元/吨（-63）；尿素生产利润200元/吨（+0），出口利润1290 元/吨（-32）。 供应端：截至2025-08-19，企业产能利用率83.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为95.74 万吨（+6.98），港口样本 库存量为46.40 万吨（-1.90）。 需求端：截至2025-08-19，复合肥产能利用率43.48%（+1.98%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.82%（-11.28%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（-0.24）。 近期市场出口预期有所提振，带动尿素期货大涨。尿素7月出口57万吨，较此前市场认可的出口配额来看仍有较大 出口空间，需关注后续兑现情况。受印标发布加出口消息扰动，市场成交氛围好 ...

以下文章来源于油市小蓝莓 ，作者康健 油市小蓝莓 . 紫金天风期货能化团队 文 | 康健 来源 | 油市小蓝莓 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 PART. 1 观点小结 8月19日，受出口预期好转影响，尿素主力合约涨幅超过3%。据外交部网站，8月18日-20日，中国外交 部长访问印度，并与印度外长在新德里举行会谈，外媒报道中国或将回应印度在化肥等领域的合作需 求。在国际尿素价格高居不下的背景下，中国尿素出口印度再度出现想象空间，虽后续尿素出口政策仍 然存在变数，但由于印度自身的尿素产量不够，其进口需求是客观存在的，下半年频繁招标在需求端可 以支撑国际尿素价格处于高位。因此我国的尿素价格在相对低位时必须考虑出口需求影响。 PART. 2 出口数量迅速增长 2025年7月尿素出口数量环比大幅增长至57万吨，这与法检政策出台以来的尿素月度出口数量相当，创近 年来单月新高，市场也传言尿素将有新的出口配额释放。但2025年5月以来的尿素出口放松政策并未放开 中国尿素直接出口印度，而印度又是国际尿素的重要买家，也是我国历年出口尿素的最大目的国。因此 我国尿素未能出口印度对于出口需求的提振影响较有限。 图1：尿素出 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market, analyzing the reasons for the rapid increase in urea futures prices and providing trading suggestions [3] Key Points Market Performance - As of the mid - session on August 19, 2025, the main urea futures rose rapidly, with a gain of more than 3% [3] Influencing Factors - According to the latest market news, China is preparing to supply fertilizers, rare - earth materials, and tunnel excavators to India [3] - A new round of Indian tenders requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, and the time is tight, approaching China's export window period on October 15. China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, with a cumulative export of 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons. It is expected that the export volume will be high from July to August, and the concentrated export will occur from August to September [3] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals provide limited support. The new round of Indian tenders guides the sentiment of the spot market. The spot trading in the mainstream areas improved yesterday. The short - term price rebounds from the bottom. For unilateral trading, be cautious about chasing up. Hold the previous long positions, and for those not yet entered the market, wait for the price to pull back and then layout long positions for distant contracts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, and the spot price has stabilized due to the release of the Indian tender and export news. However, the subsequent domestic demand drive is not obvious, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. There is still a large export space for urea in July, and the subsequent implementation needs to be monitored. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the future supply - demand is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1754 yuan/ton (+17). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+30), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was - 14 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 14 yuan/ton (+13) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 52 million tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 60 million tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20, but with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 18, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+30), and the export profit was 1321 yuan/ton (-49). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Urea exports continued in August, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. India's NFL issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. The urea export in July was 57 million tons, and there is still a large export space compared with the previously recognized export quota [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48% (+1.98%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (-11.28%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is affected by the parade, with melamine and panel factories expected to reduce production. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90) [1]