尿素日报 | 2025-09-30 区域收单分化，尿素价格趋稳 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-29，尿素主力收盘1664元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1600元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1600元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-64 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-54元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-64元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润70元/吨（+0），出口利润1070 元/吨（-88）。 供应端：截至2025-09-29，企业产能利用率85.58%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为49.63 万吨（-1.97）。 需求端：截至2025-09-29，复合肥产能利用率35.27%（-3.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.58%（+3.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性弱，国庆节前采购情绪难以维持高 位，区域出现分化，上游厂家整体收单尚可，预计后续价格稳定为主。目前部分地区农业秋季 ...

港口库存小幅去化，关注出口动态 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-25，尿素主力收盘1674元/吨（+1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-64 元/吨（-1）；河南基差：-64元/吨（-1）；江苏基差：-54元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（+0），出口利润1149元/ 吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-09-25，企业产能利用率85.58%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为49.63 万吨（-1.97）。 需求端：截至2025-09-25，复合肥产能利用率35.27%（-3.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.58%（+3.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-09-26 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收 单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不高 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-09-25 尿素企业库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-24，尿素主力收盘1673元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-63 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：-63元/吨（-25）；江苏基差：-53元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（+0），出口利润1149 元/吨（+9）。 供应端：截至2025-09-24，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-24，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，随盘面反弹 成交好转，关注节前收单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-09-24 内需依旧偏弱，九江心连心开车成功 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-23，尿素主力收盘1658元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-48 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-38元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-38元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（-10），出口利润1140 元/吨（+19）。 供应端：截至2025-09-23，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-23，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收 单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - The current urea market is supported by exports, with port inventories accumulating but expected to drive down social inventories. Domestic demand is weak, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose. Future prices are mainly driven by export effectiveness and domestic demand recovery speed, and there is still medium - and long - term supply pressure [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 10, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 1669 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1692 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1668 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,000 lots, a decrease of 13,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 283,000 lots, an increase of 15,000 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price - The latest price of urea2509 was 1613 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.74%, with an open interest of 4753 lots and a trading volume of 89 lots. The latest price of urea2510 was 1633 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.03%, with an open interest of 12959 lots and a trading volume of 2029 lots. The latest price of urea2601 M was 1669 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.01%, with an open interest of 283349 lots and a trading volume of 168507 lots [6] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Price and Basis Data - The overall urea spot prices in major domestic regions remained stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1720 yuan/ton (basis 51 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1530 yuan/ton (basis - 139 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1650 yuan/ton (basis - 19 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1660 yuan/ton (basis - 9 yuan/ton) [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Information - Export policy is a key factor affecting urea prices. Attention should be paid to the large - scale urea import tender of India's NFL (with a record - high bid volume) and its final procurement result. In September, as an important window for urea export, the accelerating port collection speed has led to a continuous increase in port inventories. The export volume in August and September is expected to be considerable, which may lead to a decline in social inventories. The superimposed effect of accelerated exports and the seasonal recovery of domestic demand also needs to be observed [8][9] 3.4 Market Outlook - The current urea market is supported by exports, with port inventories accumulating but expected to drive down social inventories. Domestic demand is weak, and the effectiveness of manufacturers' price cuts to attract orders is limited. Agricultural autumn fertilizer demand starts slowly, and industrial demand is restricted. On the supply side, production is at a high level, the operating rate will rise, and with new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the resonance point of export growth and the seasonal recovery of domestic demand. Future prices are mainly driven by export effectiveness and the recovery speed of domestic demand, but medium - and long - term supply pressure remains [10] 3.5 Demand and Supply 3.5.1 Demand - Domestic urea manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, but overall trading is light. Agricultural autumn fertilizer demand is gradually starting, and industrial downstream (compound fertilizers, melamine) mainly makes rigid - demand purchases. Due to previous important events, the operations of the panel and compound fertilizer industries were restricted, resulting in weak overall industrial demand [12] 3.5.2 Supply - The operating rate of the urea industry is expected to rise. Against the background of high production levels, with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term market supply - demand pattern remains loose [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, conduct positive spreads trading for UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spreads trading for UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading volume. Although the autumn agricultural fertilizer season has started in some areas and there is rigid demand from the compound fertilizer and melamine industries, industrial demand was previously affected by the military parade and is gradually recovering [2] - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, but the cost support is average [2] - The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, as the bid volume is at a historical high. September is still an export window period, with accelerating export rhythm and declining port inventories. The export volume in August and September is expected to be high, which will lead to a decrease in urea inventories. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7][8][15][17] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][23] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][29][32] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [33][35][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [54][57][61]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term, the market is under pressure and oscillating, with a still weak trend. The increase in the export flow of the second and third batches may drive some market speculation, but the futures price has limited speculative space under the high - premium pattern due to the light spot trading volume. In the medium - term, the export acceleration has limited impact on price as traders have prepared some goods in advance. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and the increase in exports is expected to be unable to compensate for the weakening domestic demand. Overall, the price is expected to gradually decline [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,669 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume was 168,507 lots, a decrease of 13,613 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 283,349 lots, an increase of 15,169 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,897 tons, an increase of 54 tons; the trading value was 5.6597 billion yuan, a decrease of 481.35 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 1, up 14 from the previous day. The UR01 - UR05 spread remained unchanged at - 50 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of urea in various enterprises such as Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, etc. remained unchanged. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas also remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators, including the operating rate at 77.96% and the daily output at 182,390 tons, remained unchanged [2] 2. Industry News - On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 37,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, the urea export continued to accelerate, causing the inventory of some enterprises with export orders to decline. However, the inventory of enterprises without exports rose slowly due to the under - expected domestic demand. Provinces with increased inventory include Anhui, Gansu, etc., while those with decreased inventory include Hebei, Henan, etc. [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [2] - Research Area: Energy and Chemicals [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1669 (-17/-1.01%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices weakened and declined, with general trading. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1490 - 1550 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On September 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.51 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.36 tons compared to the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on this day was 79.12%, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 81.42% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Market sentiment was average, with urea spot factory quotes in mainstream areas declining and trading being mediocre [5] - Regional Market Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes led the decline, and the factory quotes were expected to be weakly stable; in Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the factory quotes were expected to follow the decline; in the surrounding areas of the delivery zone, the factory prices were expected to decline [5] - Supply and Demand: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. India tendered for 200,000 tons again. The domestic demand was in a "vacuum period", and the overall demand showed a downward trend. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 37,700 tons to around 1.1327 million tons [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. The Indian tender had a certain support for the domestic spot market sentiment, but the domestic demand was weak, and the urea market was expected to continue its weak operation [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term bearish, do not chase the short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea September 2025 Monthly Report: Supply-Demand Shift, Price Range May Widen [1] - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of urea are both changing. The supply is expected to increase with capacity expansion and increased daily production in September, while demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm changes, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Market Review - In August, the urea futures price oscillated, briefly surging before falling back. On August 29, the Urea 01 contract closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the end of July. The spot price was firm but actual trading was weak. On August 29, the Henan market price was 1,727 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the end of July [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - In August, the number of urea production device overhauls increased, and the operating rate first rose and then fell. By the end of the month, the operating rate was 81.73%, down 3.2 percentage points from the end of last month. The operating rate of natural gas - based urea continued to decline, reaching 71.8% at the end of the month, down 6.82 percentage points from the end of last month [9]. - In August, three new production capacities were put into operation, with a total of 200,000 tons from Shandong Jinkong Riyue New Materials Co., Ltd., 1 million tons from Xinjiang Xinji Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., and 800,000 tons from Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Chemical Co., Ltd. From January to August 2025, the total new urea production capacity put into operation was about 4.4 million tons [9]. - In August, the daily average urea output was still higher than the historical value, ranging from a minimum of 189,800 tons to a maximum of 194,400 tons, and currently maintaining at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The estimated urea output in August was 6.0605 million tons, a decrease of 27,500 tons month - on - month and an increase of 829,500 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated urea output was 48.154 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.68 million tons year - on - year, with a supply growth rate of 13.37% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - In August, the market price of anthracite first rose and then stabilized. The average monthly gross profit margin of coal - based urea was estimated to be 2.58%, a decrease of 5.68 percentage points month - on - month and 3.66 percentage points year - on - year. The estimated average monthly gross profit margin of gas - based urea in July was - 10.03%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points month - on - month and 14.05 percentage points year - on - year [16]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 41.455 million tons, an increase of about 4.428 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In August 2025, the urea production - sales ratio was maintained at 95.4% - 96.6%, at a relatively high level [19]. 3.5 Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area was 1.79 billion mu, an increase of 5.258 million mu from the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and it has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the construction of high - standard farmland, the single - yield level of grain is expected to be effectively improved. The demand for summer fertilizers such as rice and corn is being released [21]. 3.6 Urea Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In August, the operating rate of compound fertilizers first rose and then fell. The estimated output of compound fertilizers in August was 4.76 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons month - on - month and a decrease of 770,000 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated output of compound fertilizers was 33.62 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In September, it is expected to gradually enter the peak sales season, and the probability of dealers' centralized pick - up will increase [27]. - In August, the average operating rate of melamine enterprises in China was 54.36%, a decrease of 7.06 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly output was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons from the previous month [30]. 3.7 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to July 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 22.83 million tons, an increase of 7.156 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 45.65%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 12.33 million tons, an increase of 3.767 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 43.99%. The urea export volume was 644,000 tons, an increase of 426,700 tons year - on - year [33]. 3.8 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of August, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.003 million tons, an increase of 246,000 tons from the beginning of the month, changing from destocking to inventory accumulation. At the end of August, the urea port inventory was 790,000 tons, an increase of 270,000 tons from the end of last month. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6,473, equivalent to 129,460 tons of urea, an increase of 64,800 tons from the end of last month [35][38]. 3.9 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: There is still an expectation of continuous urea capacity release. The concentrated overhaul period of coal - based urea devices has passed. Although the overall operating rate of gas - based devices is lower than in previous years, the overall urea supply may maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, and the daily average urea output will maintain at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. - Demand: (1) Agricultural demand: The concentrated fertilization period for summer harvest and sowing is over, and other agricultural fertilization is sporadic. (2) Industrial demand: Compound fertilizers are in the pre - sale stage of autumn fertilizers. As the pre - sale progresses, the operating rate of fertilizer enterprises will gradually increase in the second half of the month, and the production of autumn fertilizers will start. In September, it is the traditional sales stage of compound fertilizers. In the middle and late ten days, the pick - up volume of dealers will increase, and the production of fertilizer enterprises will also increase simultaneously. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. (3) Export demand: The urea export volume in July was lower than expected, while the urea port inventory exceeded the previous export peak level. It is expected that the export volume will be concentrated in August - September. - Market outlook: Recently, the number of urea device overhauls has decreased, and the supply has recovered month - on - month, with the daily output running at 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The agricultural fertilization demand is sporadic. After the continuous increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, it began to decline. The peak operating rate of compound fertilizers is lower than in previous years. It is expected that the progress of compound fertilizers this year will be delayed, and other industrial demand will remain stable. The downstream of urea continues to hold a wait - and - see attitude, and the limited actual transactions have led to continuous inventory accumulation of enterprises. In September, with capacity release and expected increase in daily output, the demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. Both supply and demand are changing, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes. It is expected that the price fluctuation range may expand. Key points to focus on include urea capacity release, urea device production cuts and overhauls, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]