2026 年 3 月 6 日 原木：库存偏低，价格震荡抬升 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 项 目 2026/3/5 2026/3/4 | 2026/3/3 | 2026/3/2 | 2026/2/27 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2605合约（收盘价） 800.5 802 | 799.5 | 800 | 798.5 | -0.2% | 0.3% | | 2605合约（成交量） 3912 2542 | 2995 | 3742 | 3161 | 53.9% | 24% | | 2605合约（持仓量） 9171 8747 | 8370 | 8416 | 7605 | 4.8% | 21% | | 2607合约（收盘价） 801.5 802 | 802 | 802.5 | 800.5 | -0.1% | 0% | | 盘面 2607合约（成交量） 260 101 | 64 | 80 | 134 | 157.4% | 94% | | 260 ...

2月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中心等五 部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，自2026年2月26日起施行。 一、进一步调减住房限购政策 服务宜居安居，促进职住平衡，聚焦满足居民合理住房需求，《通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。 一是缩短非沪籍居民购买外环内住房所需缴纳社保或个税年限。对非上海市户籍居民家庭或成年单身人 士购买外环内住房的，购房所需缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的年限，调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满1年 及以上。 二是符合条件非沪籍居民可在外环内增购1套住房。对在上海市缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满3年及以上 的非上海市户籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在执行现有住房限购政策基础上，可在外环内增购1套住 房。 三是符合条件的持《上海市居住证》群体可在上海市购买住房。对持《上海市居住证》满5年及以上的 非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海市限购1套住房，无需提供缴纳社保或个税证明。 按照上述规定，非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，自购房之日前在上海市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得 税满1年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数，在外环内限购1套住房；连续缴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to Beijing's real estate policies aimed at promoting a stable and healthy market while addressing the housing needs of residents, both for first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Non-local residents can now purchase homes within the Fifth Ring Road after paying social insurance or personal income tax for a continuous period of 2 years prior to the purchase, while for properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, the requirement is reduced to 1 year [1]. - Families with two or more children, regardless of their residency status, are allowed to buy an additional property within the Fifth Ring Road, in addition to existing housing purchase restrictions [1]. - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in terms of interest rate pricing, allowing for a more flexible determination of commercial housing loan rates based on market conditions and individual risk profiles [1]. Group 2: Loan and Financing Regulations - For applicants using public housing funds to purchase a second home, the minimum down payment requirement is set at 25% [2]. Group 3: Development Approval Process - The approval process for real estate development projects, including residential, hotel, and office buildings, will shift from city-level approval to district-level filing, aimed at optimizing the business environment [3]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The new policies will take effect on December 24, 2025, superseding any previous inconsistent regulations [4].

Core Points - The Shenzhen government has announced further optimization and adjustment of real estate policies to better meet residents' housing needs and promote stable market development [1] Group 1: Residential Purchase Policy Adjustments - Residents eligible to purchase commercial housing in specified districts can buy an unlimited number of properties [1] - Non-local residents without proof of continuous social insurance or income tax payment for over one year can purchase up to two properties in specified districts [1][2] - Single adults will be subject to the same purchasing limits as resident families [3] Group 2: Corporate Purchase Policy Adjustments - Enterprises can purchase commercial housing within the city to address employee housing needs, with specific conditions for certain districts [4] - In districts like Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an, companies must meet criteria such as a minimum establishment period and tax contributions to qualify for property purchases [4] Group 3: Personal Housing Credit Policy Optimization - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in terms of interest rate pricing, allowing for more flexible loan terms [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's housing and construction bureau, along with the People's Bank of China Shenzhen branch, announced new policies to optimize real estate regulations, aiming to meet residents' housing needs and promote a stable market [1][2][3] Group 1: Residential Purchase Policy Adjustments - Residents eligible to purchase commercial housing in specified districts can buy an unlimited number of properties [1] - Non-local residents without proof of continuous social insurance or income tax payments can purchase up to two properties in designated areas [1] - No qualification review is required for purchasing properties in Yantian District and Dapeng New District [1] - Single adults are subject to the same purchasing limits as resident families [1] Group 2: Corporate Purchase Policy Adjustments - Enterprises can purchase commercial housing within the city to address employee housing needs [2] - In specific districts, companies must meet criteria such as being established for over one year, having paid at least 1 million RMB in taxes, and employing at least 10 staff members to buy properties [2] - No qualification review is required for corporate purchases in other areas of the city [2] Group 3: Personal Housing Credit Policy Adjustments - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in their interest rate pricing, allowing for more flexible loan terms [3] - The new policies will take effect from September 6, 2025 [3]

Core Points - The Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau and the People's Bank of China Shenzhen Branch have announced further optimization and adjustment of real estate policies to better meet residents' housing needs and promote stable market development [1][8] Group 1: Residential Purchase Policy Adjustments - Residents eligible to purchase commercial housing in specified districts (including local households and non-local households with over one year of social insurance or income tax payments) can buy an unlimited number of properties in designated areas [1] - Non-local households unable to provide proof of over one year of social insurance or income tax payments are limited to purchasing two properties in the specified districts [1] - In Yantian District and Dapeng New District, there will be no qualification review for purchasing commercial housing [2] - Single adults will be subject to the same purchasing limits as resident households [3] Group 2: Corporate Purchase Policy Adjustments - Enterprises can purchase commercial housing within the city to address employee housing needs, with specific conditions for purchases in certain districts [4] - In districts like Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an (Xinan Street), companies must meet criteria such as being established for over one year, having paid at least 1 million RMB in taxes, and employing at least 10 staff members to qualify for property purchases [4] - In other areas of the city, there will be no qualification review for corporate purchases [4] Group 3: Personal Housing Credit Policy Adjustments - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in terms of interest rate pricing, allowing for more flexible loan terms based on market conditions and individual risk profiles [5] Implementation Date - The new policies will take effect on September 6, 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has announced adjustments to its real estate policies to better meet the housing needs of residents and promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3]. Group 1: Residential Purchase Policy Adjustments - Residents eligible to purchase commercial housing in specified districts (including local households and non-local households with over one year of social insurance or income tax payments) can buy an unlimited number of properties in designated areas [3][4]. - Non-local households unable to provide proof of over one year of social insurance or income tax payments are limited to purchasing two properties in the specified districts [3]. - There will be no qualification review for purchasing commercial housing in Yantian District and Dapeng New District [3]. - Single adults will be subject to the same purchasing limits as households [3]. Group 2: Corporate Purchase Policy Adjustments - Enterprises can purchase commercial housing within the city to address employee housing needs, with specific conditions for purchases in certain districts [4]. - In districts like Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an (Xinan Street), companies must meet criteria such as being established for over one year, having paid at least 1 million RMB in taxes, and employing at least 10 staff members [4]. - No qualification review is required for purchasing in other areas [4]. Group 3: Personal Housing Credit Policy Adjustments - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in terms of interest rate pricing, allowing for a more flexible approach based on market conditions and individual risk profiles [5]. - The new policies will take effect from September 6, 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to real estate policies in Shenzhen, aimed at optimizing housing purchase conditions for residents and enterprises, as well as personal housing loan policies [2]. Group 1: Residential Housing Purchase Policy Adjustments - Residents eligible to purchase commercial housing in specified districts (including local and certain non-local residents) can buy an unlimited number of properties in designated areas [3]. - Non-local residents without proof of continuous social insurance or income tax payments for at least one year are limited to purchasing two properties in specified districts [3]. - In certain areas like Yantian District and Dapeng New District, there will be no qualification review for purchasing commercial housing [3]. - Single adults will be subject to the same housing purchase restrictions as resident families [3]. Group 2: Enterprise Housing Purchase Policy Adjustments - Enterprises can purchase commercial housing within the city to address employee housing needs, with specific conditions for purchases in certain districts [4]. - In districts like Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an (Xinan Street), enterprises must meet criteria including a minimum establishment period of one year, tax payments of at least 1 million RMB, and a minimum of 10 employees [4]. - In other areas, there will be no qualification review for enterprise purchases [4]. Group 3: Personal Housing Loan Policy Adjustments - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second home loans in terms of interest rate pricing, allowing for more flexible loan terms based on market conditions and individual risk profiles [5]. Implementation Date - The new policies will take effect on September 6, 2025 [6].

Core Insights - The "Six Policies" implemented in Shanghai starting August 26 represents the first optimization of real estate market policies this year, allowing families meeting certain criteria to purchase unlimited properties outside the outer ring, and single adults to follow the same housing purchase restrictions as resident families [1][10] - The new policies have led to a significant increase in inquiries from both landlords and potential buyers, with a doubling in the number of appointments for property viewings [1] New Housing Market Dynamics - The new policy has resulted in a surge in sales, exemplified by the Poly Haishangyin project, which sold all 168 units on its opening day, following previous successful sales in earlier phases [2][4] - The Xiangyu Tianchen Yasu project also experienced strong demand, with approximately 300 out of 368 units sold across four phases, achieving an 80% sales rate [4] Buyer Behavior and Market Response - Buyers are responding positively to the new policies, with many previously hesitant individuals now actively seeking properties, as seen in the case of a buyer who reduced her down payment significantly due to the new regulations [6][10] - The policy changes have particularly benefited families looking to purchase multiple properties, as they are no longer restricted by previous limits, leading to increased activity in the outer ring market [10] Market Outlook - The new policies are expected to accelerate the sales of new homes in the outer ring, particularly for families looking for retirement or vacation properties, while also stabilizing second-hand home prices [10] - The Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute indicates that the removal of purchase limits outside the outer ring will effectively meet the housing needs of single individuals and new residents, enhancing market activity [10]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's real estate policy has been optimized and adjusted, focusing on housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, housing credit, and housing tax, effective immediately, aiming to stimulate demand for both first-time and improved housing [1][7]. Housing Purchase Restrictions - The new policy allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring, including both new and second-hand homes [3]. - Adult singles will be subject to the same housing purchase restrictions as resident families [4]. - The adjustments are designed to respond to market demand and enhance housing accessibility [2]. Housing Credit Optimization - Commercial personal housing loan rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes [5]. - The housing provident fund policy has been optimized, allowing a 15% increase in the maximum loan amount for buyers of new green buildings rated two stars or above [5]. - Buyers of newly built pre-sale homes in Shanghai can withdraw their provident fund for down payments without affecting their loan limits [5]. Housing Tax Adjustments - The new policy introduces a tax exemption of 60 square meters per person for eligible non-resident families purchasing their second or more homes, aiming to reduce disparities in tax treatment [6]. Market Impact - The adjustments are expected to release purchasing power and activate trading activity, particularly benefiting single buyers [9]. - The policy changes align with the demand for housing in areas with significant industrial layout, supporting the balance between work and residence [10]. - The overall market performance in Shanghai is anticipated to become more active under the new regulations [12].