"为什么我的投资判断的准确率很高，但是账户收益却不佳？" 这个问题，几乎大部分交易者都会遇到。很多人进入市场后，会先迷恋上"追求胜率"这件事。涨跌判断 准了，就觉得自己离盈利不远了。 在市场里待久了就会发现，胜率和赚钱，根本就是两件事。 高胜率为何换不来盈利?盈亏比很关键 我们通过AI分析来看一组真实的数据：某投资者统计了两个月的交易记录，方向判断正确率达到70%， 按理说这个成绩应该相当不错了。但打开账户一看，本金却从50万缩水到了46万。 想要改变这种局面，需要重新搭建自己的交易体系。这里有三条经过市场验证的参考思路： 第一，每笔交易开仓前必须同时设好止损和目标位。不要相信盘中临场发挥，因为情绪会扭曲判断。建 仓的同时，止损位和目标位就该同步设好。这个动作虽然看起来机械，但它能逼着你在最理性的时刻做 决策。 问题出在哪？仔细分析交易流水会发现：那些看对的交易行为，平均每笔赚800元；那些看错的单子， 平均每笔亏2400元。70%的胜率配上1：3的盈亏比，数学不会骗人——期望收益就是负的。 对此，AI有一个很形象的比喻： 你可以在大部分战斗中获胜，却在关键的几场战争里输得一败涂地。 为什么看对了却拿不住？这 ...

Group 1 - The portfolio's stock selection in Q3 2025 was broadly negative across sectors, indicating performance headwinds faced by the investment style [2] - The commentary reflects on the overall challenges in the market that impacted the portfolio's performance [2] - The management's insights suggest a need for strategic adjustments in response to the prevailing market conditions [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting a reliable fund manager over focusing on flashy fund names, highlighting the manager's experience and stability as key factors in investment success [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Selection Criteria - The first criterion for selecting a fund manager is their experience, particularly having navigated through a complete market cycle, as those who have not experienced significant market downturns may panic and make poor decisions [3]. - The second criterion is the stability of the manager's investment style, as consistent strategies are crucial; managers who frequently shift between growth and value investing may encounter issues [3]. - The third criterion involves the alignment of the manager's words and actions, where investors should verify if the manager's stated investment logic matches their actual portfolio holdings, avoiding those who focus solely on short-term performance [3]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The article advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that finding a fund manager is akin to choosing a travel companion, where reliability and expertise are more valuable than mere rhetoric [3]. - It notes that many fund managers may experience short-term success but emphasizes that those who are steady and knowledgeable tend to be the true long-term winners in the investment landscape [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the different stages of a company's lifecycle and the corresponding investment opportunities and valuation methods associated with each stage [3][4][20]. Group 1: Company Lifecycle Stages - The company lifecycle consists of four main stages: Deep Growth, Growth, Growth Value, and Deep Value [4][16]. - In the Deep Growth stage, companies are newly listed with small revenue but experience rapid growth [4]. - The Growth stage sees companies with larger revenue and continued high growth [4]. - In the Growth Value stage, revenue growth slows, but profitability remains high due to effective cost control [4][15]. - The Deep Value stage is characterized by slow growth in both revenue and profit, with companies focusing on stable high dividends [4][17]. Group 2: Valuation Methods - Different stages of a company's lifecycle require different valuation methods [6][7]. - Common valuation metrics include Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), Price-to-Sales (P/S), Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF), and Dividend Yield [9]. - The stability of financial metrics is crucial for selecting appropriate valuation indicators; for instance, stable earnings allow for the use of P/E ratios [9][11]. - In the Growth stage, companies often reinvest earnings, making P/E ratios less relevant, while P/S ratios may be more applicable [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Companies in the Growth Value stage can be evaluated using P/E ratios once their Return on Equity (ROE) stabilizes, indicating a competitive advantage [15]. - Deep Value companies typically provide returns through high dividends or share buybacks, making dividend stability critical for their stock prices [18][19]. - The article emphasizes that a comprehensive analysis of a company's operational situation is essential, rather than relying solely on valuation metrics [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of investment style drift among fund managers, highlighting its negative implications for long-term performance and competitive advantage [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Style Drift - Investment style is a reflection of a fund manager's long-term investment philosophy, strategy preferences, and stock selection logic [2][4]. - Many fund managers exhibit mediocre performance due to a lack of a stable investment style, leading to frequent shifts in their investment strategies, known as style drift [4]. - Style drift is detrimental to fund operations for two main reasons: it hinders the ability to achieve long-term returns and makes it difficult to establish a competitive advantage [4][6]. Group 2: Long-term Performance - The A-share market demonstrates characteristics of style rotation, with different styles performing strongly in different years, such as growth style in 2015 and value style from 2016 to 2018 [5][6]. - Predicting which investment style will perform well in the next phase is challenging, and chasing market trends can lead to inconsistent results, negatively impacting long-term returns [6]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - Fund managers have limited time and energy to analyze numerous reports and conduct field research, which restricts their ability to focus on a select number of stocks [7]. - A fund manager typically can only deeply understand a few stocks within specific styles or industries, and spreading efforts too thin can lead to superficial knowledge [8]. - Maintaining a stable investment style allows fund managers to deepen their expertise in their favored areas, thereby building a competitive advantage [8].

Core Viewpoint - E Fund's Zhang Kun has adjusted the portfolio structure of several funds in Q3, reducing holdings in Tencent and Alibaba while increasing positions in Kweichow Moutai, reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [1][2][5]. Fund Performance and Adjustments - The total scale of funds managed by Zhang Kun is approximately 56.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 55 billion yuan at the end of Q2, primarily due to net asset value growth [1]. - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection, saw significant changes with SF Express exiting the top ten holdings and Focus Media entering, alongside reductions in Tencent, Alibaba, and Luzhou Laojiao, while increasing stakes in Kweichow Moutai and Yum China [2][5]. - E Fund Quality Selection Mixed Fund also reduced holdings in Tencent and Alibaba, with new entries in JD Health and Focus Media [5]. - E Fund Quality Enterprise Three-Year Holding Fund showed a notable decrease in the number of shares held for most stocks, including Tencent and Alibaba, with only Yum China seeing a significant increase in holdings [7]. Investment Philosophy - Zhang Kun emphasizes the unpredictability of market styles but insists on maintaining a consistent investment approach, focusing on companies with strong business models, competitive advantages, and sustainable growth potential [11]. - The macroeconomic perspective highlights that despite short-term challenges, long-term structural factors should not be overlooked, with a belief that China's GDP growth will exceed global averages due to its low per capita GDP and potential for increased consumer spending [11]. - The company believes that the current low valuation levels provide a significant margin of safety for investments, and that the accumulation of free cash flow will eventually reflect in the intrinsic value and market capitalization of companies [11].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun's funds have adjusted their holdings in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and technology sectors, with notable reductions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba, while increasing positions in Kweichow Moutai [1][2][3] Fund Performance and Adjustments - The total scale of Zhang Kun's managed funds is approximately 56.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 55 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter, primarily due to net asset value growth [2] - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Select, saw significant changes with SF Express exiting the top ten holdings and Focus Media entering, alongside reductions in Tencent, Alibaba, and Luzhou Laojiao, while increasing holdings in Kweichow Moutai and Yum China [3][4] - E Fund Quality Select Mixed also reduced its positions in Tencent and Alibaba, with new entries in JD Health and Focus Media [4][6] Investment Philosophy - Zhang Kun emphasizes the unpredictability of market styles but insists on maintaining a consistent investment approach, focusing on companies with strong business models, competitive advantages, and sustainable growth potential [10] - The investment strategy includes a significant proportion of domestic demand-related companies, with a belief that China's GDP growth will exceed global averages in the long term, supported by the potential for increased consumer spending [10] - The current low valuation levels in the market provide a substantial margin of safety for investments, with expectations that accumulated free cash flow will reflect in the intrinsic value growth of companies [10]

每经记者｜黄小聪 每经编辑｜赵云 今日，易方达张坤管理的多只基金披露了三季报。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，除了产品规模的变化，三季度张坤调整了医药、消费和科技等行业的持仓结构，其中 易方达蓝筹精选、易方达优质精选混合均减持了腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W，但加仓了贵州茅台。 易方达优质企业三年持有基金除了减持腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W等个股，还减持了贵州茅台等白酒股；值得注意的 是，谷歌公司新进到易方达亚洲精选的前十大重仓股。 在三季报中，张坤继续分享了对于投资的一些看法，他表示："市场的风格难以预测，但我们会坚持自己的投资风 格。'市场先生'的悲观只是放大了短期的困难，并没有长期存在的基础。" 最新披露的三季报显示，张坤管理的基金累计规模约565亿元，相比于二季度末的550亿元，有小幅增长，主要是来自 于净值的增长，如果看基金份额，多只产品的份额在三季度还是有所下滑。 接着看易方达优质企业三年持有，三季度前十大重仓股主要的变化在于持仓数量的增减，包括腾讯控股、阿里巴巴- W在内的大部分个股，均出现了比较明显的持仓数量下降，其中仅百胜中国持仓量有明显增加。 张坤管理的另外一只QDII产品是易方达亚洲精选，这只基金的前十 ...

Group 1 - The domestic macroeconomic data and the third-quarter reports of listed companies are being disclosed, leading to an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics is gradually releasing macroeconomic data for September and the third quarter, indicating that the economy remains generally stable [1] - The third-quarter reports from listed companies will provide more information about the real economy, contributing to the cautious attitude of investors [1] Group 2 - The two markets opened high but experienced fluctuations, with trading volume continuing to shrink [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance from the 5-day moving average, closing above the 30-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index also opened high but fell back, with trading volume showing a continuous decline [1] Group 3 - The market has entered a horizontal consolidation phase since the end of August, with resistance above and support below [1] - The adjustment low points remain above the market highs of 2021, indicating that previous resistance levels have become significant support [1] - After the holiday, the market attempted to break upward but fell back due to negative information, suggesting that further time is needed for digestion and consolidation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the concept of corporate life cycles and their relationship with investment strategies and valuation methods, emphasizing the importance of understanding these stages for making informed investment decisions [7][74]. Group 1: Corporate Life Cycle Stages - The corporate life cycle is divided into six stages: startup, business model refinement, IPO, growth, growth value, and deep value [10][74]. - The first stage, startup, involves transforming an idea into a product prototype, often requiring angel investment [15][18]. - The second stage focuses on refining the business model, necessitating various talents and resources, often through multiple rounds of financing (A, B, C rounds) [20][26]. - The third stage is the IPO, where companies become publicly traded, gaining access to more capital and resources [35][40]. - The fourth stage is growth, characterized by significant revenue increases and market share expansion, often reinvesting profits for further growth [42][48]. - The fifth stage, growth value, sees revenue growth slow down while profitability increases through cost management [54][62]. - The final stage, deep value, involves stable profits with limited growth potential, often leading to dividends or share buybacks for shareholders [64][68]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors typically engage with companies in the later stages of the life cycle, particularly after the IPO [75]. - Different investment styles correspond to various life cycle stages, with notable investors like Warren Buffett focusing on growth value companies [78]. - Understanding these stages helps investors align their strategies with the appropriate corporate life cycle phase, enhancing investment decision-making [79].