证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251124 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指微涨 0.05%，收 报 3836.77 点；深证成指涨 0.37%，收报 12585.08 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.84%， 收报 1296.6 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 2929.04 点。总体上，全天个股涨 多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4228 只个股上涨，仅 1100 只个股下跌，120 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 17406 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 2379 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，国防军工、传媒、计算机、社 会服务等行业涨幅靠前，涨幅分别为 4.31%、3.49%、2.41%、2.22%，石油石 化、煤炭、银行、食品饮料等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.21%、1.09%、0.79%、 0.56%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为中船系、航母、商业航天、 ...

Content: --------- <doc id='1'>金融工程日报 A 股单边下行，AI 应用逆势走强、锂电池产业链全线下挫</doc> <doc id='2'>核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251121 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。行业 指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好，综 合、有色金属、基础化工、通信、电子行业表现较差。中船系、水产、小红 书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电 隔膜、盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251121 收盘时有 33 只股票涨停，有 107 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，高开低走，收盘收益为-0.55%，昨日 跌停股票今日收盘收益为-5.58%。今日封板率 61%，较前日提升 10%，连板 率 24%，较前日下降 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251120 两融余额为 24917 亿元，其中融资余额 24744 亿元，融券余额 173 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.1%。</doc> <doc id='3'>折溢价：20251120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是创科技 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是芯 片 ETF 景顺。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 20 亿元，20251120 当 日大宗交易成交金额为 19 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.36%，当日折价率 为 7.71%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货主 力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.48%、3.39%、10.86%、13.39%，当日上 证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.00%，处于近一年来 29%分位点，当 日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 7.08%，处于近一年来 25%分位 点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.69%，处于近一年来 69% 分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.76%，处于近一年 来 80%分位点。</doc> <doc id='4'>机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是九号公司-WD、蓝思科 技、泰恩康、中航重机、沃尔德、超颖电子、宏昌科技、斯菱股份等，九号 公司-WD 被 179 家机构调研。20251121 披露龙虎榜数据中，机构专用席位净 流入前十的股票是天华新能、易点天下、安妮股份、久其软件、榕基软件、 古麒绒材、江龙船艇、荃银高科、华瓷股份、神农种业等，机构专用席位净 流出前十的股票是西藏城投、视觉中国、浪潮软件、德力佳、禾信仪器、中 水渔业、梦天家居、亚通精工、南侨食品、北方长龙等。陆股通净流入前十 的股票是天华新能、江龙船艇、英利汽车、国风新材、久其软件、久之洋、 荃银高科、西藏城投、南侨食品等，陆股通净流出前十的股票是华胜天成、 视觉中国、方大炭素、诺德股份、浪潮软件、易点天下、禾信仪器等。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险；本报告基于历史客观数据统计，不构成投资 建议。</doc> <doc id='5'> | 金融工程·数量化投资 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：张欣慰 | 联系人：李子靖 | | 021-60933159 | 021-60875177 | 021-60933159 021-60875177 zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn lizijing1@guosen.com.cn S0980520060001 相关研究报告 《金融工程日报-A 股高开低走，封板率创近一个月新低》 —— 2025-11-20 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡收红，水产股集体大涨、黄金股午后 拉升》 ——2025-11-19 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡走低，锂电产业链回调、互联网电商 概念逆势走强》 ——2025-11-18 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡下跌，锂矿题材逆势爆发》 —— 2025-11-17 《金融工程日报-沪指冲高回落，算力、半导体产业链领跌》 — —2025-11-14</doc> <doc id='6'>市场表现 宽基与风格指数表现 今日(20251121，下同) 市场全线下跌，规模指数中，上证 50 指数表现较好，上 证 50 指数下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.44%，中证 500 指数下跌 3.46%，中 证 1000 指数下跌 3.72%，中证 2000 指数下跌 3.99%。 板块指数中，上证综指表现较好，上证综指下跌 2.45%，深证综指下跌 3.43%，中 小 100 指数下跌 3.25%，创业板指下跌 4.02%，科创 50 指数下跌 3.19%，科创 100 指数下跌 4.04%，北证 50 指数下跌 4.71%。 风格指数中，沪深 300 价值指数表现较好，沪深 300 价值指数下跌 1.70%，沪深 300 成长指数下跌 2.47%，中证 500 价值指数下跌 3.30%，中证 500 成长指数下跌 3.16%。主要宽基、板块及风格指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='7'>图1：今日宽基、板块与风格指数表现 行业指数表现 今日行业指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好， 收益分别为-0.27%、-0.50%、-0.89%、-1.00%、-1.58%，综合、有色金属、基础 化工、通信、电子行业表现较差，收益分别为-5.41%、-5.30%、-5.26%、-4.59%、 -4.41%，中信一级行业指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='8'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='9'>图2：今日中信一级行业指数表现 概念主题表现 今日中船系、水产、小红书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，收 益分别为 3.51%、0.65%、0.47%、0.42%、0.22%，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电隔膜、 盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差，收益分别为-9.67%、-8.66%、-8.18%、 -8.08%、-7.99%，今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='10'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='11'>图3：今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='12'>市场情绪 日内涨跌停家数 我们统计上市满 3 个月以上的股票在今日盘中的实时涨跌停家数情况。今日盘中 最高有 33 只股票

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45% to close at 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 3.41% to 12538.07 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 4.02% to 2920.08 points. Overall, 351 stocks rose while 5071 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 17082 billion yuan, an increase of 2575 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][12]. Industry Performance - Most of the Shenwan first-level industries saw declines today. The media, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors experienced relatively smaller declines of 0.32%, 0.40%, and 0.88% respectively. In contrast, industries such as comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, communications, steel, and environmental protection faced larger declines, with drops of 5.50%, 5.26%, 5.17%, 4.70%, 4.58%, 4.51%, 4.40%, and 4.00% respectively [1][12]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the largest gains today included the China Shipbuilding System, aquatic products, Xiaohongshu platform, Pinduoduo partners, short drama games, virtual humans, and Kimi. Conversely, sectors such as lithium mining, lithium battery anodes, and lithium extraction from salt lakes experienced corrections [2][11].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed weakness and continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3939.81 points, down 0.81%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13080.49 points, down 0.92% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 19460 billion, slightly decreasing from the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, only 4 sectors saw an increase, with media, computer, and electronics leading the gains, while basic chemicals, coal, and steel experienced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.07%, the S&P 500 down 0.83%, and the Nasdaq down 1.21% [2][4] - Notable declines included Home Depot down 6% and Amazon down over 4%, leading the Dow [2][4] - The performance of Chinese concept stocks was mixed, with some stocks like Amer Sports rising over 8% while Daqo New Energy fell over 6% [2][4] News Highlights - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed China's willingness to embrace global free trade and strengthen economic cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [3][11] - Chinese and Japanese diplomats held consultations, with China urging Japan to retract erroneous statements made by its officials [3][11] - The National Development and Reform Commission approved five inter-regional power interconnection projects, with a total investment of 244 billion, enhancing China's cross-regional power supply capacity [12][13]

- The report does not contain any information about quantitative models or factors.

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.81% to close at 3939.81 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 0.92% to 13080.49 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.16% to 3069.22 points. Overall, there were 1274 stocks that rose while 4103 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 19261 billion yuan, an increase of 153 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the media, computer, and electronics sectors showed positive performance with increases of 1.60%, 0.93%, and 0.12% respectively. Conversely, the coal, electric equipment, steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors faced declines, with decreases of 3.17%, 2.97%, 2.85%, 2.80%, and 2.67% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included Pinduoduo partners, Xiaohongshu platform, WEB3.0, Kimi, Douyin Doubao, multimodal models, internet celebrity economy, operating systems, virtual humans, intelligent entities, ChatGPT, AIGC, medical payment reform, live streaming sales, and Chinese corpus. In contrast, the lithium battery positive electrode, lithium battery negative electrode, and lithium iron phosphate battery sectors experienced a pullback [2][12].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.39% closing at 4002.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.03% at 13289.01 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.40% at 3134.32 points. Overall, 2784 stocks rose while 2500 fell, with a total trading volume of 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as retail, real estate, steel, basic chemicals, and agriculture showed positive growth, with increases of 1.43%, 0.81%, 0.62%, 0.61%, and 0.60% respectively. Conversely, industries like telecommunications, electronics, computers, coal, and defense showed declines, with decreases of 2.20%, 1.74%, 1.41%, 1.34%, and 1.18% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, lithium battery electrolytes, germanium-gallium-antimony inks, calcium titanate batteries, HJT batteries, BC batteries, SPD, Pinduoduo partners, TOPcon batteries, dairy industry, cross-strait integration, high turnover, energy exports, and PEEK materials [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.01% closing at 3853.30 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67% to 13445.90 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 1.24% to 1474.49 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.58% to 3235.76 points. Overall, there were 3875 stocks that declined, 1474 that rose, and 80 that remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,711 billion yuan, an increase of 443.06 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, sectors such as media, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, computers, and pharmaceuticals showed notable gains. Conversely, textiles and apparel, comprehensive sectors, agriculture, household appliances, transportation, and real estate experienced significant declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The leading sectors in terms of growth included servers, semiconductor silicon wafers, copper industry, nuclear fusion, Kimi, internet celebrity economy, optical modules (CPO), optical communication, partnerships with Pinduoduo, superconductors, online games, AIPC, short drama games, rare metals selection, and DeepSeek [2].

- Model Name: ETF Premium and Discount Rate Model; Model Construction Idea: The model calculates the premium and discount rates of ETFs to reflect investor sentiment; Model Construction Process: The premium and discount rates are calculated using the formula: $ \text{Discount Rate} = \frac{\text{Total Transaction Amount of Block Trade}}{\text{Total Market Value of Shares Traded on the Day}} - 1 $ [23][26][27] - Model Name: Margin Trading Balance Model; Model Construction Idea: The model measures the balance of margin trading to reflect market activity; Model Construction Process: The balance of margin trading is calculated by summing the financing balance and the securities lending balance. The proportion of margin trading balance to the market's total circulating market value and the proportion of margin trading transactions to the market's total transaction amount are also calculated [19][22][24] - Model Name: Stock Index Futures Basis Model; Model Construction Idea: The model calculates the annualized basis rate of stock index futures to reflect market expectations; Model Construction Process: The annualized basis rate is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Annualized Basis Rate} = \frac{\text{Basis}}{\text{Index Price}} \times \left( \frac{250}{\text{Remaining Trading Days of the Contract}} \right) $ [28][29][31] - Factor Name: Sealing Rate; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the proportion of stocks that hit the highest price and closed at the highest price; Factor Construction Process: The sealing rate is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Sealing Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Highest Price and Closed at Highest Price}}{\text{Number of Stocks with Highest Price}} $ [16] - Factor Name: Consecutive Sealing Rate; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the proportion of stocks that closed at the highest price for two consecutive days; Factor Construction Process: The consecutive sealing rate is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Consecutive Sealing Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks Closed at Highest Price for Two Consecutive Days}}{\text{Number of Stocks Closed at Highest Price Yesterday}} $ [16] Model Backtest Results - ETF Premium and Discount Rate Model, Premium Rate: 1.77% (New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF), Discount Rate: 0.95% (CSI 2000 ETF) [23][25] - Margin Trading Balance Model, Margin Trading Balance: 19847 billion yuan, Financing Balance: 19706 billion yuan, Securities Lending Balance: 142 billion yuan, Margin Trading Balance to Circulating Market Value Ratio: 2.3%, Margin Trading Transactions to Market Transaction Amount Ratio: 10.4% [19][21][22] - Stock Index Futures Basis Model, Annualized Basis Rate: 0.25% (SSE 50), -3.17% (CSI 300), -11.41% (CSI 500), -12.84% (CSI 1000) [28][29][31] Factor Backtest Results - Sealing Rate, 59% [16] - Consecutive Sealing Rate, 25% [16]