来源：金融界AI电报 日本央行审议委员野口旭：一旦供需状况趋紧并开始产生上行动能，物价持续上涨的现象并不少见，因 为企业会弥补此前成本转嫁滞后的缺口。核心通胀能否持续稳步迈向2%目标，完全取决于工资上涨的 动能能否持续，并向中小企业和地方经济扩散。若物价目标在展望报告预测期的下半年实现，日本央行 应以适当步伐调整利率，以与该时间表保持一致。这意味着要以适当的速度提高政策利率，使得在实现 2%的通胀目标时，能够平稳地达到中性利率。到目前为止，美国关税的影响有限。 若政策调整步伐过 快或过慢，都可能引发问题。过快加息或将削弱薪资增长势头，使2%通胀目标更加遥不可及。日本央 行在调整政策时应保持谨慎的另一个原因是，长期的通货紧缩和零通胀导致的零通胀惯性持续强劲。尽 管物价已连续三年多上涨超过2%，但通胀预期仍未达到2%。政策调整步伐过慢的问题在于，会增加经 济活动和物价失稳的风险。如果央行决定在物价达到目标之前完全不加息，那么除非一次性大幅上调政 策利率，否则通胀将难以控制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate that committee members believe the current low real interest rates warrant a continued increase in policy rates if inflation expectations are realized [1] Group 1 - Committee members expressed a desire to raise the policy interest rate to around 0.75% based on improvements in economic and price conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was passed with a 7 to 2 vote [1] - There was a proposal from committee members Takeda and Tamura to raise the short-term interest rate target from 0.50% to 0.75% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the importance of carefully examining its forecasts in light of high uncertainty in trade policies and their impact on the economy [1] - The central bank indicates that if economic and price trends align with its forecasts, it will continue to raise policy rates in response to improvements in the economy and prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.50% for the third consecutive time during the upcoming policy meeting, with analysts predicting no rate cuts in October and some delaying expectations for cuts to November or later due to ongoing risks from household debt growth and a heated real estate market [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - All 28 analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal anticipate that there will be no interest rate cuts in October [1]. - Some analysts have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to November or later, citing concerns over household debt and the real estate market [1]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Analysts highlight the risks associated with rising household debt and an overheated real estate market in Seoul, which could be exacerbated by lower borrowing costs [1]. - Barclays economist Bum Ki Son notes that the Bank of Korea seems skeptical about the stabilization of the real estate market and is concerned about the weakening of the Korean won, necessitating a more cautious approach [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - Barclays predicts that the Bank of Korea will lower interest rates in November [1].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, but emphasized that the subsequent policy path faces high uncertainty due to the government shutdown affecting official economic data and conflicting signals between the labor market and overall economic performance [1] Group 1 - Waller stated that the uncertainty surrounding data evolution necessitates caution in adjusting policy rates to avoid costly mistakes [1] - The government shutdown complicates the policy-making environment, with potential short-term volatility but a quick economic recovery expected once reopened [1] - However, if the shutdown persists, it could weaken economic growth potential and delay recovery, particularly impacting Q4 GDP [1]

Core Viewpoint - The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to maintain the policy rate at 11% to balance the current economic situation and address macroeconomic uncertainties caused by recent flooding [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Inflation in Pakistan is showing a relatively moderate trend from July to August 2025, despite a slowdown in the rate of decline [1] - Key economic indicators, such as large-scale manufacturing, are signaling a strengthening economic growth momentum [1] - The flooding has significantly impacted the economy, particularly affecting the agricultural sector on the supply side [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The SBP anticipates that the flooding will lead to a higher overall inflation level and current account deficit than previously expected for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Economic growth is projected to slow down compared to earlier expectations due to the adverse effects of the flooding [1] - The SBP believes that the current policy rate of 11% is sufficient to stabilize inflation within the medium-term target range of 5%-7% [1] Group 3: Policy Rate History - In March 2023, the SBP raised the policy rate to a high of 20% due to increasing inflationary pressures, maintaining it above 20% for 15 months [2] - The policy rate was subsequently lowered to 11% in June 2025, marking the lowest level since 2022, and has remained unchanged since then [2] - The SBP plans to conduct two more policy rate adjustments in the fiscal year 2025, tentatively scheduled for October 27 and December 15 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank has lowered its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75%, exceeding market expectations, and plans to maintain this level if inflation and economic activity remain stable [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The global economy is still affected by geopolitical tensions, but the overall growth outlook remains unchanged [2]. - Sweden's inflation rate in August remains high, but core inflation, excluding energy prices, has slightly decreased [2]. - The central bank forecasts CPIF inflation at 2.6% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, with GDP growth expected at 0.9% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026 [3][4]. Policy Rate Projections - The central bank projects the policy rate to remain at 1.75% from Q4 2025 to Q3 2026, with a slight increase to 1.88% by Q3 2027 and 2.04% by Q3 2028 [4]. Recent Actions - This rate cut marks the third reduction by the Swedish central bank this year, bringing the rate to its lowest level in three years [5]. - The central bank has also implemented measures to allow fluctuations in the holding of Swedish government bonds between 18 billion and 22 billion Swedish kronor [5].

Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The market has shown unexpected strength in September, with positive sentiment driven by AI developments and expectations of rate cuts [2][3] - Historical trends indicate that the last two weeks of September are typically the worst of the year, raising concerns about future market performance [3] - Current market pricing reflects expectations of multiple rate cuts by year-end, which may lead to disappointment if inflation data does not align with these expectations [4][5] Growth Projections - The outlook for economic growth is cautious, with expectations of middling growth rather than strong performance, despite some positive policy changes [6][7] - Investments announced by the administration are expected to yield benefits over a multi-year cycle rather than immediate impacts [9][10] - Consensus among economists suggests GDP growth will likely remain below 2%, contradicting more optimistic projections of 3-4% [12] Investment Strategy - A bifurcated investment approach is recommended, focusing on high-quality secular growth companies while being cautious about cyclical sectors that may underperform [12][13] - Current market conditions present opportunities for repositioning in high-quality assets amidst volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's focus should be on the overall interest rate path rather than just individual meeting decisions, as inflation remains above target levels with ongoing risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation and Interest Rates** - Inflation is currently above the target level, indicating persistent risks [1] - The interest rate path may include a pause in rate cuts if employment market risks escalate [1] - **Employment Market** - The next employment report could either justify a rate cut or not, depending on its specifics [1] - Risks in the employment market are rising but have not yet manifested [1] - **Tariffs and Inflation Effects** - The inflation effects from tariffs are expected to gradually dissipate [1] - **Policy Adjustments** - The Federal Reserve is moderately tightening policy and will continue to adjust the interest rate outlook until the September meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against all major currencies following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, suggesting that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should adjust their policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the yen is attributed to two main factors: comments regarding the Federal Reserve and those concerning the Bank of Japan [1] - Market speculation indicates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as December, with some believing it could happen in October [1] - Market participants are paying close attention to Yellen's remarks, which are perceived as supportive of a stronger yen [1]