11月以来，美元指数两度站上100点。回顾两轮突破100点的过程，我们认为，美元指数走强主要受五方面因素支撑： 第一，非美货币集体走弱形成被动提振。非美货币走弱对美元指数构成有效支撑。日元方面，日本央行在10月议息会议上维持基准利率不变，市 场对日元贬值的预期持续升温。近期，日本推出经济刺激方案，且日本首相高市早苗的相关错误言论进一步加剧了日元贬值压力，日元持续走 弱。英镑方面，受英国失业率上行、通胀边际回落、秋季预算案引发债务攀升担忧等因素拖累，英镑持续承压。英镑与日元同步疲软，进一步强 化了美元指数的上行动能。 第四，美联储独立性担忧阶段性缓解。前期，美国总统特朗普频繁施压美联储，要求解雇鲍威尔、理事库克，市场对美联储独立性的担忧逐步升 温。随着美国最高法院宣布将于明年1月21日就特朗普试图解雇库克一案听取辩论，市场对美联储独立性的担忧缓解。目前市场对新一届美联储主 席候选人的交易尚未发酵，主要因特朗普政府称候选人可能在圣诞节前选出，距离当前仍有一段时间。 第五，避险情绪升温推动美元避险买盘。11月初，美国科技股因估值高企、业绩不及预期而出现回调，市场对AI、芯片等热门赛道的担忧加剧， 部分投资者选择获利 ...

旧金山联储主席玛丽・戴利支持美联储在12月的货币政策会议中启动降息操作。她认为当前经济环境下， 就业市场突发恶化的概率与应对难度，已显著超出通胀再度反弹的风险。 尽管当前通胀水平仍徘徊在3%左右，尚未回落至美联储2%的目标，但在戴利看来，这种温和通胀对经济 的负面影响，远不及就业市场崩溃带来的民生冲击与增长压力。 美联储内部，另一批官员明确对进一步降息持谨慎态度，顾虑集中在价格压力的潜在扩散风险。他们观察 到，受关税影响的部分商品价格仍维持高位，且国内服务领域的价格上涨态势正在显现，从医疗服务到餐 饮消费，多个细分领域的成本上升迹象，让他们担忧通胀压力可能从单一领域向全产业链传导。 如果明年经济意外加速增长，当前的宽松操作可能迫使美联储在短期内重启加息，这种政策方向的反复不 仅会扰乱市场预期，还可能加剧经济波动。 当前劳动力市场的平衡状态实则暗藏脆弱性，其面临的并非渐进式疲软，而是可能出现突发性、不可逆的 恶化，政策制定者如果等待明确疲软信号出现再行动，很可能错失干预时机。 此前引发广泛担忧的关税驱动型成本上涨，其实际影响远低于年初预期。这一现象背后，既可能是企业通 过优化供应链、压缩利润空间消化了部分成本， ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising risks in the job market validate the appropriateness of the interest rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The job market is showing increasing risks, which suggests a need for monetary policy adjustments [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in September is supported by current employment trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a divided outlook among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with a majority expecting at least two more cuts this year, while some anticipate only one cut or no cuts at all through 2025 [1][5][10] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, marking the first cut of the year, with a voting outcome of 11 to 1 [3][5] - More than half of the 19 officials at the meeting expect at least two more rate cuts this year, suggesting potential cuts in October and December [5][6] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting is estimated at 94.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 5.9% [6] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Officials expressed concerns about the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, fearing that prolonged high rates could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like housing [8][9] - There is a significant worry about persistent inflation, which has remained above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with officials cautioning that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth [9][10] - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions [9][10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Data Limitations - The minutes reflect substantial internal disagreements among Fed officials regarding the necessity and timing of further rate cuts, highlighting the challenges faced by Chairman Powell in achieving consensus [5][10] - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions in the upcoming meetings [10]

关于降息前景，美联储内部分歧正在加剧。 据美联储最新发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少 再降息两次，但有数人预计2025年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。 值得注意的是，会议纪要还显示，美联储官员们对在美股创新高之际作出更大胆的降息承诺感到不安。 隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳指涨1.12%，均创出历史新高。 目前，投资者普遍预计，美联储将在10月28日至29日的议息会议上再次降息25个基点。据CME"美联储 观察"，截至北京时间10月9日06:00，美联储10月降息25个基点的概率达94.6%。 美联储最新发布 北京时间10月9日凌晨，美联储官网发布了9月16日至17日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性超过了持续高企的通胀，因此决定 降息25个基点，这是今年的首次降息。 9月会议的投票结果为11比1，投出反对票的成员是由美国总统特朗普任命的美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米 兰（Stephen Miran），他主张降息50个基点。 米兰认为，实际中性的利率水平可能低于此前估计，因此美联储 ...

Group 1 - The recent tariff measures announced by the Trump administration are causing businesses in the Midwest to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to concerns over stalled investment decisions [1] - The impact of tariffs on heavy trucks, lumber, and cabinets is particularly significant in manufacturing hubs like Michigan and Iowa, with many businesses postponing major investment plans due to uncertainty [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% to mitigate employment market risks, but there is notable disagreement among officials regarding future rate paths [1] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence of monetary policy have been expressed, particularly regarding proposals that would allow the Trump administration to directly influence interest rate decisions, which could lead to higher inflation and poorer economic performance [2] - Other Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the need for caution in accelerating rate cuts, as inflation pressures remain significant despite signs of softening in the labor market [2] - The current financial environment is still supportive of economic growth, allowing the Federal Reserve some flexibility in assessing the situation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may have acted too slowly in supporting the labor market, and if demand weakens leading to layoffs, it may need to accelerate interest rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Vice Chair Bowman indicated that the Fed should focus on potential issues in the labor market and is less concerned about inflation risks [2]. - Bowman expressed that the current slowdown in hiring signals a need for decisive action to address declining labor market vitality [2]. - The Fed recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking a shift in focus towards employment market risks [4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized caution regarding further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above target levels [3]. - Goolsbee noted that while the labor market appears stable, the Fed should not rush into aggressive easing measures [3]. - There is an ongoing debate among over 12 Fed officials regarding the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts in light of labor market conditions [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Bowman mentioned that if economic conditions develop as expected, the recent rate cut should be seen as the first step towards returning the federal funds rate to a neutral level [3]. - The median projections from the latest dot plot suggest two more 25 basis point cuts this year, but there is significant disagreement among policymakers [3].

美联储如期降息，更关注就业风险 美联储 9 月会议将政策利率下调 25bp 至 4.0%-4.25%，会议声明更加鸽派，强 调风险平衡发生转变，确认就业市场走弱风险上升。点阵图上调 9-12 月降息幅 度预测从 50bp 升至 75bp，上调 2025-2027 年经济增速和 2026 年通胀预测， 下调 2026 年失业率预测，暗示更大幅度降息将提振经济增长与通胀。鲍威尔在 记者会上称本次决定是"预防性"降息，利率水平向中性利率靠拢，但不代表 将转向宽松，强调美联储没有既定路径，未来决定将依赖最新数据。鲍威尔的 表态很难满足白宫与市场期待，国债收益率收回之前跌幅。近期就业走弱既有 需求放缓因素，也有供应减少原因，经济放缓依然温和。同时 9 月 CPI 增速可 能在能源与商品通胀推动下反弹，美联储 10 月可能再次暂停降息。随着经济持 续走弱，12 月可能再降息一次，联邦基金利率年底或降至 3.75%-4%。国债收 益率曲线可能陡峭化，10 年国债收益率年底可能升至 4.1%左右。因白宫持续 施压美联储降息，美元指数可能走弱。 2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国 ...

123456789:;<2025-09-18 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./012 ——!"#$%&'(3 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月利率决议，宣布降息 25bp，将利 率下调至在 4.00%-4.25%，符合预期。 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 !"#$$%&'$ 9 月 18 日，美联储如期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是 今年九个月以来的首次降息。声明内容相比 7 月有明显变化，美联储删除了 "劳动力市 场状况稳健" 的表述，新增 "就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，就业下行风险增加"，显 示对劳动力市场的担忧加剧。此次降息被定位为 "风险管理型" 降息，主要是为了应对 就业市场恶化的风险，而非通胀压力。FOMC 点阵图显示，今年内预计还将降息两次， 但内部分歧较大，仅有不到半数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market risks are increasing, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to shift its focus towards stabilizing growth and initiating a monetary easing cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and revised data indicated a loss of jobs in June, highlighting a cooling labor market [2][3]. - A benchmark revision showed that over 910,000 jobs were added in the past year compared to initial reports, indicating a significant downward adjustment in employment figures [2][3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's position has shifted since summer, with officials increasingly prioritizing employment stability over inflation concerns [2][3]. - Recent market pricing indicates a high probability of rate cuts in September, October, and December, with expectations of 25 basis point reductions in each meeting [4][5]. Predictions and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a more aggressive easing stance [4][5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more neutral policy stance, with potential for continued rate cuts into 2026 [5]. Economic Forecasts - The upcoming quarterly economic projections from the Federal Reserve will provide insights into inflation, unemployment, and interest rate expectations, which are crucial for market direction [3][4].