据美联储最新发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少 再降息两次，但有数人预计2025年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。 值得注意的是，会议纪要还显示，美联储官员们对在美股创新高之际作出更大胆的降息承诺感到不安。 隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳指涨1.12%，均创出历史新高。 号称"美联储传声筒"的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，根据周三的会议记录显示，美联储官员们在 9月同意降息时，对未来是否应进一步降息存在明显分歧： 目前，投资者普遍预计，美联储将在10月28日至29日的议息会议上再次降息25个基点。据CME"美联储 观察"，截至北京时间10月9日06:00，美联储10月降息25个基点的概率达94.6%。 美联储最新发布 北京时间10月9日凌晨，美联储官网发布了9月16日至17日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性超过了持续高企的通胀，因此决定 降息25个基点，这是今年的首次降息。 9月会议的投票结果为11比1，投出反对票的成员是由美国总统特朗普任命的美联储新任理事斯蒂 ...

关于降息前景，美联储内部分歧正在加剧。 据美联储最新发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少 再降息两次，但有数人预计2025年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。 值得注意的是，会议纪要还显示，美联储官员们对在美股创新高之际作出更大胆的降息承诺感到不安。 隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳指涨1.12%，均创出历史新高。 目前，投资者普遍预计，美联储将在10月28日至29日的议息会议上再次降息25个基点。据CME"美联储 观察"，截至北京时间10月9日06:00，美联储10月降息25个基点的概率达94.6%。 美联储最新发布 北京时间10月9日凌晨，美联储官网发布了9月16日至17日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性超过了持续高企的通胀，因此决定 降息25个基点，这是今年的首次降息。 9月会议的投票结果为11比1，投出反对票的成员是由美国总统特朗普任命的美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米 兰（Stephen Miran），他主张降息50个基点。 米兰认为，实际中性的利率水平可能低于此前估计，因此美联储 ...

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周二在一场由该行主办的农业会议上表示，特朗普政府近 期宣布的新一轮关税措施，正令中西部地区企业陷入观望状态，担心投资决策再度停滞。 古尔斯比指出，随着关税涉及重型卡车、木材和橱柜等产品，位于密歇根、爱荷华等制造业核心地带的 第七联储辖区受到的冲击尤为显著。"很多人干脆放下手中的笔，等待政策落地。"他表示，这与特朗普 政府在今年4月首次宣布国别关税后频繁调整税率和实施日期所引发的不确定性如出一辙。彼时，不少 企业因此推迟重大投资计划，也成为美联储维持利率按兵不动的重要考量之一。 尽管美联储本月早些时候已经将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%至4.25%，以缓解就业市场风 险，官员们对于后续路径意见分歧明显。劳动力市场近月出现失业率上升、招聘放缓的迹象，但裁员规 模仍有限。古尔斯比称当前就业市场呈现出"低招聘、低裁员"的特殊局面。他同时警告，服务业通胀上 升和关税带来的价格传导效应，可能使通胀高企时间超出预期。 在货币政策独立性问题上，古尔斯比表达了强烈担忧。他直言，对赋予特朗普政府直接影响利率决策的 提议感到"不安"。研究表明，缺乏独立性的央行往往伴随更高通胀和更 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼周二表示，美联储在支持劳动力市场方面可能已行动滞后。若需求状 况疲软、企业开始裁员，美联储或需加快降息步伐。 古尔斯比表示，当前货币政策处于"温和限制性"状态。他补充称，芝加哥联储对劳动力市场的分析显 示，目前市场整体稳定——尽管招聘放缓，但裁员率处于低位。 本周，逾12位美联储官员发表讲话，就"在美国就业市场可能迎来拐点之际，降息速度应多快、幅度应 多大"展开持续辩论。通胀仍是担忧因素之一，政策制定者需找到一条利率路径：既能确保通胀回归2% 目标，又不会对经济增长或失业率造成严重打击。 美联储主席鲍威尔将于周二晚些时候发表讲话。周一，多名官员表示，鉴于通胀仍比目标高出近1个百 分点，他们对进一步降息仍持谨慎态度；米兰则称，鉴于特朗普政府的政策正改变人口结构、贸易及通 胀动态，他会采取激进降息举措。 鲍曼在讲话中阐明，应重点关注就业市场潜在问题，且在很大程度上无需过度担忧通胀风险。她指出， 当前招聘放缓，"委员会已到果断、主动采取行动的时刻，以应对劳动力市场活力下降及新显现的脆弱 信号"。 "在应对不断恶化的劳动力市场状况 ...

美联储如期降息，更关注就业风险 美联储 9 月会议将政策利率下调 25bp 至 4.0%-4.25%，会议声明更加鸽派，强 调风险平衡发生转变，确认就业市场走弱风险上升。点阵图上调 9-12 月降息幅 度预测从 50bp 升至 75bp，上调 2025-2027 年经济增速和 2026 年通胀预测， 下调 2026 年失业率预测，暗示更大幅度降息将提振经济增长与通胀。鲍威尔在 记者会上称本次决定是"预防性"降息，利率水平向中性利率靠拢，但不代表 将转向宽松，强调美联储没有既定路径，未来决定将依赖最新数据。鲍威尔的 表态很难满足白宫与市场期待，国债收益率收回之前跌幅。近期就业走弱既有 需求放缓因素，也有供应减少原因，经济放缓依然温和。同时 9 月 CPI 增速可 能在能源与商品通胀推动下反弹，美联储 10 月可能再次暂停降息。随着经济持 续走弱，12 月可能再降息一次，联邦基金利率年底或降至 3.75%-4%。国债收 益率曲线可能陡峭化，10 年国债收益率年底可能升至 4.1%左右。因白宫持续 施压美联储降息，美元指数可能走弱。 2025 年 9 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国 ...

123456789:;<2025-09-18 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./012 ——!"#$%&'(3 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月利率决议，宣布降息 25bp，将利 率下调至在 4.00%-4.25%，符合预期。 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 !"#$$%&'$ 9 月 18 日，美联储如期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是 今年九个月以来的首次降息。声明内容相比 7 月有明显变化，美联储删除了 "劳动力市 场状况稳健" 的表述，新增 "就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，就业下行风险增加"，显 示对劳动力市场的担忧加剧。此次降息被定位为 "风险管理型" 降息，主要是为了应对 就业市场恶化的风险，而非通胀压力。FOMC 点阵图显示，今年内预计还将降息两次， 但内部分歧较大，仅有不到半数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market risks are increasing, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to shift its focus towards stabilizing growth and initiating a monetary easing cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and revised data indicated a loss of jobs in June, highlighting a cooling labor market [2][3]. - A benchmark revision showed that over 910,000 jobs were added in the past year compared to initial reports, indicating a significant downward adjustment in employment figures [2][3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's position has shifted since summer, with officials increasingly prioritizing employment stability over inflation concerns [2][3]. - Recent market pricing indicates a high probability of rate cuts in September, October, and December, with expectations of 25 basis point reductions in each meeting [4][5]. Predictions and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a more aggressive easing stance [4][5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more neutral policy stance, with potential for continued rate cuts into 2026 [5]. Economic Forecasts - The upcoming quarterly economic projections from the Federal Reserve will provide insights into inflation, unemployment, and interest rate expectations, which are crucial for market direction [3][4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell indicated a shift towards dovish policies, emphasizing rising employment risks and a potential interest rate cut in September with a probability of about 90%[2][9] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned the average inflation target established in 2020, reverting to a 2% inflation target while maintaining a focus on employment risks[2][22] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in hiring rates and a widening gap between non-farm employment and ADP employment figures, indicating potential downward revisions in future data[3][21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The NAHB housing market index fell to 32 in August, nearing a ten-year low, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[10] - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims have shown a slight upward trend, supporting concerns about the labor market[10][14] - The U.S. economy's second-quarter GDP growth was revised to an annualized rate of 3%, indicating resilience despite rising inflation risks[20] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - A significant improvement in employment data or a substantial pass-through of tariff costs to consumers could disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting plans[4][31] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments may continue to impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability[21][24]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on August 22, closing at $3,367.86 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,378.76 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 956.77 tons [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that changes in baseline outlook and risk balance may necessitate adjustments in policy stance, with a focus on the labor market nearing full employment [2] - Powell emphasized that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, while the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer, although the timing and magnitude remain uncertain [2] - Fed officials, including Harmack, expressed caution regarding any rate cuts, noting that the labor market is showing signs of weakness and inflation is still above target levels [3] Credit Rating and Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign rating at "AA+" with a stable outlook, citing the country's large economic scale and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [4] - However, high fiscal deficits and rising government debt levels pose limitations to this rating, with projections indicating that the government deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from 7.7% in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, before rising again in subsequent years [4] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. Vice President Vance mentioned the possibility of new sanctions against Russia to pressure for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while clarifying that U.S. ground troops will not be deployed [6] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov highlighted the complexities of direct negotiations, stating that the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president is a concern for any potential meeting [6][7] Economic Indicators - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including Germany's IFO Business Climate Index and U.S. new home sales [9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium suggests a potential interest rate cut in the coming months despite rising inflation risks in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Employment Market Risks - Powell highlighted the "peculiar balance" in the U.S. labor market, where both supply and demand are slowing, leading to a stable unemployment rate but significant downside risks [2] - July's non-farm payrolls showed only 73,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, with previous months' figures revised down significantly [2] - The rising unemployment rate, which increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicates a cooling job market [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The recent employment data supports a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in September [3] - A 25 basis point cut is seen as the most likely option, allowing for a signal of easing without alarming the markets [3] - Upcoming employment and CPI data will be crucial in determining the timing and extent of any rate cuts [3] Group 3: Global Market Implications - A rate cut in September could lead to a weaker dollar, encouraging capital flows into emerging markets and boosting global risk appetite [4] - The potential for a shift in cross-border capital flows may present a revaluation opportunity for emerging market assets [4] - If the core PCE price index falls below 2.8% in October, further rate cuts could follow, totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [4]