Jan 8 (Reuters) - Americans grew more worried about the job market in December even as anxieties over personal finances faded, while near-term inflation expectations increased, a report from the New York Federal Reserve ​showed on Wednesday. Respondents in the regional Fed bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said the prospect of ‌finding a job if unemployed was the worst since the report began in 2013. The worries about getting a new job were led by ‌households that earned under $100,000 per yea ...

今日ccmn锌价统计：今日ccmn长江综合0#锌价报24270-24370元/吨，均价24320元，跌30元，1#锌价报 24180-24280元/吨，均价24230元，跌30元；广东现货0#锌报23920-24220元/吨，均价24070元，跌40 元，1#锌价23850-24150元/吨，均价24000元，跌40元。今日现货锌市场报价0#锌在24260-24370元/吨之 间，1#锌在24190-24290元/吨之间。对比沪期锌2601合约0#锌升水90-升水200元/吨，1#锌升水20-升水 120元/吨。对比沪期锌2602合约0#锌升水70-升水180元/吨，1#锌升水0-升水100元/吨。 ccmn锌市美联储分析：今日国内现货锌价小跌。 宏观层面，投资者正密切关注美联储本月利率决策动向，政策制定者致力于在通胀风险与就业市场风险 间寻求平衡。国际局势上，美国接收委内瑞拉3000万桶原油，还公开讨论以军事手段夺取格陵兰岛，地 缘紧张局势再度升温，引发油价多空双方激烈博弈。周三油价盘面走低，释放利空信号，叠加国内主要 股指翻绿，进一步削弱了资金买盘积极性，部分投机客高位获利离场，锌价因此承压震荡。 基本面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar index is primarily supported by external factors, including the weakening of non-US currencies and a temporary alleviation of employment concerns [6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Dollar Strength - The collective weakening of non-US currencies has provided passive support for the dollar index, with the Japanese yen and British pound both under pressure due to respective economic conditions and policy decisions [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, reinforcing the resilience of the dollar. Despite a rate cut in October, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a significant reduction in the market's expectations for further cuts in December [2]. - The pause in the release of key economic data due to the government shutdown has alleviated short-term employment concerns, with recent ADP employment data showing marginal improvement, thus supporting the dollar index [3]. Group 2: Additional Supporting Factors - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have temporarily eased, following the Supreme Court's decision to hear a case related to potential dismissals within the Fed, which has calmed market fears [5]. - Increased risk aversion has driven demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly following a pullback in US tech stocks and tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Group 3: Limitations on Future Dollar Strength - The risks in the employment market have not fundamentally eased, with key employment data yet to be released, and the potential for downward revisions in previously reported job numbers [7]. - There remains room for a return to rate cut expectations, particularly if a dovish candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair, which could negatively impact the dollar index [7]. - The support from non-US currencies is not robust, as the Japanese yen's depreciation may prompt government intervention, which could weaken its support for the dollar index [7]. - Technical resistance is evident near the 100-point mark for the dollar index, requiring additional positive factors for further upward movement [7]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with upcoming employment data and the appointment of a new Fed chair candidate serving as critical tests for its resilience [8].

Group 1 - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, supports initiating interest rate cuts in December, citing that the risk of sudden deterioration in the labor market outweighs the risk of inflation rebounding [1] - The current balance in the labor market is fragile, with potential for sudden and irreversible deterioration, suggesting that policymakers should act before clear signs of weakness appear [3] - The impact of tariff-driven cost increases has been less than initially expected, as companies have optimized supply chains and absorbed some costs, reducing inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, which is above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, Daly believes that the negative impact of a collapsing labor market is more significant than the effects of moderate inflation [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials express caution regarding further rate cuts due to concerns about potential price pressure spreading across the economy, particularly in the service sector [3] - If the economy unexpectedly accelerates next year, current easing measures could force the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, leading to market disruptions and increased economic volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rising risks in the job market validate the appropriateness of the interest rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The job market is showing increasing risks, which suggests a need for monetary policy adjustments [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in September is supported by current employment trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a divided outlook among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with a majority expecting at least two more cuts this year, while some anticipate only one cut or no cuts at all through 2025 [1][5][10] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, marking the first cut of the year, with a voting outcome of 11 to 1 [3][5] - More than half of the 19 officials at the meeting expect at least two more rate cuts this year, suggesting potential cuts in October and December [5][6] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting is estimated at 94.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 5.9% [6] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Officials expressed concerns about the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, fearing that prolonged high rates could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like housing [8][9] - There is a significant worry about persistent inflation, which has remained above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with officials cautioning that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth [9][10] - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions [9][10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Data Limitations - The minutes reflect substantial internal disagreements among Fed officials regarding the necessity and timing of further rate cuts, highlighting the challenges faced by Chairman Powell in achieving consensus [5][10] - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions in the upcoming meetings [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others foresee only one or no cuts through 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that the majority of officials agree that the recent slowdown in job growth is more significant than persistent high inflation, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first cut of the year [2]. - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the dissenting vote from Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2]. - Investors widely anticipate another 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with a 94.6% probability of this outcome according to CME FedWatch [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The minutes highlight concerns among officials regarding the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, with some fearing that maintaining current interest rates for too long could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in the housing sector [6]. - Officials are worried about inflation remaining above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with concerns that businesses and consumers may become accustomed to higher price growth, potentially keeping inflation around 3% [7]. - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions, with officials acknowledging the dual risks of high rates leading to job weakness and excessive cuts causing inflation to rebound [7][8]. Group 3: Data Limitations and Decision-Making Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions at the upcoming meeting [8]. - The absence of official data on inflation, unemployment, and consumer spending means that Fed officials may have to rely on private sector data and feedback from businesses regarding pricing and hiring [8].

Group 1 - The recent tariff measures announced by the Trump administration are causing businesses in the Midwest to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to concerns over stalled investment decisions [1] - The impact of tariffs on heavy trucks, lumber, and cabinets is particularly significant in manufacturing hubs like Michigan and Iowa, with many businesses postponing major investment plans due to uncertainty [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% to mitigate employment market risks, but there is notable disagreement among officials regarding future rate paths [1] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence of monetary policy have been expressed, particularly regarding proposals that would allow the Trump administration to directly influence interest rate decisions, which could lead to higher inflation and poorer economic performance [2] - Other Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the need for caution in accelerating rate cuts, as inflation pressures remain significant despite signs of softening in the labor market [2] - The current financial environment is still supportive of economic growth, allowing the Federal Reserve some flexibility in assessing the situation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may have acted too slowly in supporting the labor market, and if demand weakens leading to layoffs, it may need to accelerate interest rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Vice Chair Bowman indicated that the Fed should focus on potential issues in the labor market and is less concerned about inflation risks [2]. - Bowman expressed that the current slowdown in hiring signals a need for decisive action to address declining labor market vitality [2]. - The Fed recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking a shift in focus towards employment market risks [4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized caution regarding further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above target levels [3]. - Goolsbee noted that while the labor market appears stable, the Fed should not rush into aggressive easing measures [3]. - There is an ongoing debate among over 12 Fed officials regarding the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts in light of labor market conditions [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Bowman mentioned that if economic conditions develop as expected, the recent rate cut should be seen as the first step towards returning the federal funds rate to a neutral level [3]. - The median projections from the latest dot plot suggest two more 25 basis point cuts this year, but there is significant disagreement among policymakers [3].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25% due to a shift in risk balance, emphasizing rising employment market risks[1] - The dot plot forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, indicating a potential year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4%[2] - The Fed's statement removed the characterization of the labor market as "still robust," highlighting slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate[2] Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, and for 2026 and 2027 to 1.8% and 1.9% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027 was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively, while the inflation forecast for 2026 increased from 2.4% to 2.6%[2] - The September CPI growth rate is expected to rebound to around 3.1% due to energy and commodity inflation pressures[3] Market Implications - The yield curve is expected to steepen, with the 10-year Treasury yield projected to rise to approximately 4.1% by year-end[3] - The dollar index may weaken, potentially dropping to around 95, as the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates while the ECB's rate-cutting cycle nears its end[3] - Lower dollar interest rates are likely to encourage capital expenditure in AI and benefit interest-sensitive sectors such as healthcare and consumer goods[3]