Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated the content of the semi-annual monetary policy report during congressional testimonies, indicating no new information but acknowledging the potential lower-than-expected impact of tariffs on inflation and the possibility of earlier rate cuts, which garnered market attention [1][3] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed support for a rate cut in July, with Waller emphasizing the need to act to avoid risks in the labor market, stating that inflation has not surged as feared and it is time to initiate the rate-cutting process [1][2] - Bowman, previously a hawkish member, indicated support for a rate cut if inflation remains controlled, citing recent lower-than-expected inflation data and the need to consider the weakening labor market [2] Group 2 - Powell's comments during the hearing reflected a cautious approach, acknowledging that the impact of tariffs on retail prices may be less than anticipated, which could influence Fed policy decisions [3] - The Fed's semi-annual report maintains that inflation expectations are aligned with the 2% target, despite concerns about tariffs potentially raising inflation, leading to a careful stance on rate cuts [3] - Current employment levels are balanced, but rising unemployment claims could prompt a rate cut if June employment data shows weakness, although Powell downplayed signs of labor market fatigue [4]

鲍曼进一步阐述自己的政策主张，她声称 "如果通胀压力持续受控，我将支持最早在我们的下一次会议上就降低政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平，并维持 一个健康的劳动力市场"。这番表态清晰展现了她的政策倾向，为美联储未来货币政策走向提供了新的可能性。尽管上周美联储在会议上维持隔夜目标利率 区间在 4.25% 至 4.5% 不变，官员们因经济不确定性保持观望，但鲍曼却认为未来经济阴云比想象中少，前景正逐渐明朗。 与鲍曼立场相似，美联储理事沃勒也对降息持开放态度。作为接替美联储主席鲍威尔的有力竞争者，沃勒上周五在电视采访中直言，会考虑在 7 月 29 - 30 日的会议上降息。这两位关键官员的接连发声，让市场对美联储降息的预期陡然升温，也给现任主席鲍威尔带来更大压力。 KVB App发现在美国货币政策决策的核心圈层，一场关于利率走向的激烈争论正暗流涌动。美国总统特朗普持续施压美联储降息，而近期美联储内部关键 官员的表态，进一步加剧了这种政策分歧。特朗普任命的美联储负责监管的副主席鲍曼于周一抛出重磅观点，直言降息的时机可能迅速临近，这番言论在金 融市场引发强烈震动，也折射出美国经济决策层内部日益尖锐的矛盾。 鲍曼在为捷克共和国 ...