格隆汇8月23日｜美联储穆萨勒姆表示，应着眼于整个利率路径，而不仅仅是某次会议的利率决定。通 胀已高于目标水平，且存在持续风险。下一份就业报告可能足以证明需要降息，也可能不足以，这取决 于报告的具体内容。美联储政策适度收紧。需更多数据，并将一直调整利率路径展望，直至9月会议。 就业市场风险正在上升，但尚未显现。预计关税的通胀效应将逐渐消退。利率路径可能包括暂停降息。 若就业市场风险加剧，政策利率或需调整。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against all major currencies following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, suggesting that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should adjust their policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the yen is attributed to two main factors: comments regarding the Federal Reserve and those concerning the Bank of Japan [1] - Market speculation indicates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as December, with some believing it could happen in October [1] - Market participants are paying close attention to Yellen's remarks, which are perceived as supportive of a stronger yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) cannot further lower the policy interest rate [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The ECB's governing council member Vujcic stated that there is no room for further downward adjustments to the policy interest rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is considering further increases in policy interest rates based on improvements in economic activity and price expectations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Activity - A member of the Bank of Japan indicated that if economic activity meets expectations, the central bank will continue to raise policy rates [1] Price Expectations - The decision to adjust interest rates will also depend on the improvement in price expectations alongside economic activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will cautiously adjust its policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes a careful approach to modifying interest rates to ensure economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank indicates economic uncertainty but suggests that if the economy develops in line with current forecasts, the policy interest rate will be further lowered during 2025 [1] Group 1 - The economic outlook is described as uncertain, highlighting potential volatility in future economic conditions [1] - The central bank's current assessment implies a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on adapting to economic developments [1] - The forecasted reduction in the policy interest rate signals a potential easing of monetary policy in response to economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan may continue to adjust its policy interest rates while cautiously assessing whether core inflation can stabilize around 2% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering further adjustments to its monetary policy [1] - There is a focus on evaluating core inflation trends and their potential stability [1] - The target for core inflation is set at approximately 2% [1]

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 回顾历次"存款利率降幅>LPR降幅"情形，均存在外部约束缓解、内部稳息差的共性经验。 2022年以来的历次存款利率、LPR非对称下调： 1）2023年6月、9月：美联储加息进入尾声，国内降息落地。 彼时国内经济复苏动能不强，银 行间流动性持续宽松。但在银行净息差持续承压、存款定期化和长期化的局面下，央行"防空 转"、缓解银行负债成本、引导资金进入实体经济的诉求明显上升。 因此，相比同期LPR变 动，该轮存款利率调整主要体现在长期存款利率降幅更大。 2）2023年12月："美联储降息"交易抢跑，国内债市利率快速下行。 汇率压力的缓解并未促 成央行的再次降息，LPR也同样"按兵不动"。这主要是因为2023年9月存量房贷利率下调，12 月债市收益率开启一轮快速下行，再加上同期地方债务的高息贷款置换，已经对银行资产端收 益构成了明显压力。该轮存款利率下调，再次表现为长期存款利率相较同期限LPR的降幅更 大， 随后促成了2024年7月5年期LPR宽幅下调35个基点。 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 张云杰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, indicates that there is ample time to patiently wait before making adjustments to policy interest rates, suggesting a gradual approach to any changes [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has the capacity to gradually adjust policy interest rates [1] - There is currently sufficient time for the Federal Reserve to remain patient regarding interest rate changes [1]