惠誉解决方案旗下机构BMI的分析师在一份报告中称，鉴于近期经济前景好转，泰国央行可能会在4月 份维持其政策利率不变。这将使该央行能够评估其此前宽松周期的传导效应。BMI预计，泰国央行将在 下半年再降息25个基点，部分原因是泰铢走强。这些分析师写道，"泰铢在2025年已升值超过7%，今年 迄今又升值了1.2%，这将严重拖累泰国的对外部门。" 责任编辑：何云 责任编辑：何云 惠誉解决方案旗下机构BMI的分析师在一份报告中称，鉴于近期经济前景好转，泰国央行可能会在4月 份维持其政策利率不变。这将使该央行能够评估其此前宽松周期的传导效应。BMI预计，泰国央行将在 下半年再降息25个基点，部分原因是泰铢走强。这些分析师写道，"泰铢在2025年已升值超过7%，今年 迄今又升值了1.2%，这将严重拖累泰国的对外部门。" ...

责任编辑：李桐 加拿大央行周三连续第二次决定将其政策利率维持在2.25%不变，并警告称，源于美国贸易政策和地缘 政治风险的不确定性程度已经加剧。 根据上周对十几位经济学家的调查，市场普遍预期该央行将按兵不动。与去年12月一样，该央行表示， 只要该国经济发展符合其预测，政策利率就处于适当水平，能够支持增长并将通胀率维持在接近2%的 目标。 加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆说："高级官员们的共识是，不确定性加剧，使得预测下一次政策利率调整的 时机或方向变得困难。"在周三之前，调查的大多数经济学家预测，该央行将维持政策利率稳定直至 2026年底。 麦克勒姆说，美国贸易政策继续扰乱国内经济。央行官员预计，在上一季度受净贸易提振意外跃升后， 第四季度经济增长陷入停滞。 加拿大央行周三连续第二次决定将其政策利率维持在2.25%不变，并警告称，源于美国贸易政策和地缘 政治风险的不确定性程度已经加剧。 根据上周对十几位经济学家的调查，市场普遍预期该央行将按兵不动。与去年12月一样，该央行表示， 只要该国经济发展符合其预测，政策利率就处于适当水平，能够支持增长并将通胀率维持在接近2%的 目标。 加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆说："高级官员们的共 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, while also announcing a reduction in various lending rates, indicating a potential for further monetary easing in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: LPR and Interest Rate Adjustments - The LPR has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months [2][5]. - Starting January 19, 2026, the PBOC will lower the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year agricultural loans respectively [2][5]. - The PBOC's average required reserve ratio is currently at 6.3%, suggesting room for further reductions [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Analysis and Future Projections - Analysts suggest that the easing of currency constraints and stabilization of bank net interest margins may allow for a policy rate reduction of 20-30 basis points within the year [6][7]. - The central bank is expected to continue increasing liquidity and utilizing various market operations to maintain ample liquidity in 2026 [7]. - Traditional tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions may have limited scope, leading to a greater reliance on structural tools and fiscal measures to achieve growth and balance objectives [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has removed references to potential interest rate cuts in its policy statement, indicating a shift in monetary policy stance amid concerns over inflation and currency stability [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The weakening of the Korean won may lead to inflationary pressures, but it is unlikely to trigger a financial crisis [1] - Market expectations for excessive interest rate cuts have diminished [1] - To stabilize the foreign exchange market through policy rates, interest rates may need to be raised by approximately 200 to 300 basis points [1] Group 2: Currency and Reserves - South Korea possesses ample dollar reserves, which provides a buffer against currency fluctuations [1] - There are many willing to lend US dollars, but few are willing to sell them [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the overnight rate at 2.25%, with uncertainty regarding the direction of the next policy adjustment, whether it will be another rate cut or a rate hike [2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada officials expressed "high uncertainty" making it difficult to predict when and in which direction the next interest rate adjustment will occur [2][6]. - The decision-making committee discussed the potential impact of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on economic prospects, noting that a breakdown of the agreement could severely damage the economy [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Recent quarterly GDP data has shown significant volatility, highlighting the challenges in assessing potential economic trends [4][8]. - The Bank of Canada anticipates a weak GDP for the fourth quarter, with increases in consumption, housing activity, and government spending offsetting weak business investment and net exports [4][8]. - Preliminary estimates indicate that the Canadian economy experienced slight expansion in November, following a contraction of 0.3% in October, suggesting that economic growth for the quarter is likely to be negative [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Solutions' BMI analysts predict that the Bank of Indonesia will maintain its policy interest rate next week, with a potential easing expected in 2026 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts indicate that controlled inflation provides room for further rate cuts to support the government's growth agenda [1] - The extent and speed of potential rate cuts may be constrained by the ongoing weakness of the Indonesian rupiah [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - Weak export growth and domestic factors are expected to continue dragging down the Indonesian rupiah, limiting the space for further policy easing [1] - BMI forecasts that by the end of 2026, the Bank of Indonesia's policy rate will decrease from the current 4.75% to 4.25% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch predicts that by mid-2026, the policy interest rates in the US, Eurozone, and UK will approach estimated "neutral" levels [1] Group 1: US Economic Outlook - Fitch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, but anticipates three rate cuts by June next year as tariff shocks stabilize and unemployment rises slightly [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - The current forecast indicates that the Bank of England will implement three rate cuts by 2026 due to a significant rise in unemployment [1] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Outlook - Fitch predicts that the European Central Bank will not pursue further rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - Barclays has adjusted its expectations for the Reserve Bank of India's interest rates, no longer anticipating a rate cut in December due to unexpectedly strong GDP data for the second quarter [1] - The bank believes that India's growth may have peaked, with a potential slowdown in growth rates in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - Barclays expects the tone of the Reserve Bank of India's policy statement in December to be accommodative [1] - The bank hopes for a potential trade agreement with the U.S. to be reached by the end of the year [1] - However, if the 50% tariff concerns from the U.S. persist until after 2025, further policy easing in 2026 cannot be ruled out [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Akira Noguchi, emphasizes that once supply and demand conditions tighten and begin to generate upward momentum, sustained price increases are not uncommon, as companies will compensate for previously delayed cost pass-throughs [1] - The sustainability of core inflation reaching the 2% target depends entirely on the momentum of wage increases and their spread to small and medium-sized enterprises and local economies [1] - If the price target is achieved in the latter half of the forecast period, the Bank of Japan should adjust interest rates at an appropriate pace to align with this timeline, indicating a need for a gradual increase in policy rates to smoothly reach the neutral rate when the 2% inflation target is met [1] Economic Context - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy has been limited so far [1] - A rapid or slow adjustment in policy rates could lead to issues; a fast rate hike may weaken wage growth momentum, making the 2% inflation target more elusive [1] - The Bank of Japan must exercise caution in policy adjustments due to the strong inertia of long-term deflation and zero inflation, despite prices having risen over 2% for more than three consecutive years [1] Risks of Policy Adjustment - The risk of slow policy adjustment lies in increasing the instability of economic activity and prices [1] - If the central bank decides not to raise rates until the price target is met, controlling inflation may become difficult unless a significant one-time increase in policy rates is implemented [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate that committee members believe the current low real interest rates warrant a continued increase in policy rates if inflation expectations are realized [1] Group 1 - Committee members expressed a desire to raise the policy interest rate to around 0.75% based on improvements in economic and price conditions [1]