巴央行在发布的货币政策声明中指出，2025年7月至8月期间，巴基斯坦通胀水平呈现相对温和态势。尽 管通胀降幅较前期有所放缓，但整体仍保持稳步下降趋势；与此同时，大规模制造业等关键经济指标释 放积极信号，显示该国经济增长势头正进一步增强。不过，当前洪水灾害对经济造成明显冲击：短期宏 观经济前景出现小幅恶化，尤其对供给侧的农业部门影响较大。巴央行预判，这一影响可能导致2026财 年（2025年7月至2026年6月）巴基斯坦总体通胀水平、经常账户赤字规模超出此前预期，经济增长速度 也将较原有预期有所放缓。经货币政策委员会（MPC）综合评估认为，尽管通胀短期内可能出现波 动，但当前11％的政策利率水平足以将通胀稳定在5％—7％的中期目标区间内。 巴基斯坦国家银行（以下简称"巴央行"）货币政策委员会（MPC）在9月15日召开的会议上，宣布将政 策利率维持在11％不变。此举旨在平衡当前巴基斯坦的经济运行态势，同时应对近期洪水灾害带来的宏 观经济不确定性。 根据巴央行公布的相关计划，2025年度仍有两次政策利率调整，时间暂定于10月27日及12月15日。（巴 基斯坦财富网供稿） 回顾政策利率调整历程：2023年3月，受通胀 ...

9月23日，瑞典央行宣布将政策利率下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%。瑞典央行表示，若通胀和经济活动前景保持不变，政策利率预计将在未来一段时间内维 持此水平。 【导读】瑞典央行降息25个基点至1.75%，降息幅度超市场预期 大家好！一起来关注海外央行最新降息消息！ 瑞典央行副行长Anna Seim对下调政策利率的决定持保留态度，主张维持政策利率不变，并暗示今年晚些时候进一步下调的可能性。她认为，脆弱的供应 侧，加上2026年的扩张性财政政策，意味着通胀可能会出人意料地上行。 瑞典央行给出最新的宏观经济数据预测：预计2025年CPIF通胀为2.6%，预计2026年CPIF通胀为1.0%；预计2025年GDP增速为0.9%，预计2026年GDP增速 为2.7%。 此次瑞典央行降息幅度超出市场预期，此前预测为1.88%。机构调查的22位经济学家中，有9人预测会出现降息，其余经济学家则预测维持利率不变。 瑞典央行指出，全球经济仍受地缘政治紧张局势及其对企业和家庭带来的不确定性影响，但全球增长前景基本保持不变。 瑞典8月通胀率仍处于高位。但剔除能源价格后的通胀略有下降，且接近先前预测水平。政府宣布的减税措施将在明年暂时 ...

Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The market has shown unexpected strength in September, with positive sentiment driven by AI developments and expectations of rate cuts [2][3] - Historical trends indicate that the last two weeks of September are typically the worst of the year, raising concerns about future market performance [3] - Current market pricing reflects expectations of multiple rate cuts by year-end, which may lead to disappointment if inflation data does not align with these expectations [4][5] Growth Projections - The outlook for economic growth is cautious, with expectations of middling growth rather than strong performance, despite some positive policy changes [6][7] - Investments announced by the administration are expected to yield benefits over a multi-year cycle rather than immediate impacts [9][10] - Consensus among economists suggests GDP growth will likely remain below 2%, contradicting more optimistic projections of 3-4% [12] Investment Strategy - A bifurcated investment approach is recommended, focusing on high-quality secular growth companies while being cautious about cyclical sectors that may underperform [12][13] - Current market conditions present opportunities for repositioning in high-quality assets amidst volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's focus should be on the overall interest rate path rather than just individual meeting decisions, as inflation remains above target levels with ongoing risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation and Interest Rates** - Inflation is currently above the target level, indicating persistent risks [1] - The interest rate path may include a pause in rate cuts if employment market risks escalate [1] - **Employment Market** - The next employment report could either justify a rate cut or not, depending on its specifics [1] - Risks in the employment market are rising but have not yet manifested [1] - **Tariffs and Inflation Effects** - The inflation effects from tariffs are expected to gradually dissipate [1] - **Policy Adjustments** - The Federal Reserve is moderately tightening policy and will continue to adjust the interest rate outlook until the September meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against all major currencies following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, suggesting that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should adjust their policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the yen is attributed to two main factors: comments regarding the Federal Reserve and those concerning the Bank of Japan [1] - Market speculation indicates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as December, with some believing it could happen in October [1] - Market participants are paying close attention to Yellen's remarks, which are perceived as supportive of a stronger yen [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济和物价走势符合预测，我们将继续提高政策利率，以配合经济和物价 的改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) cannot further lower the policy interest rate [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The ECB's governing council member Vujcic stated that there is no room for further downward adjustments to the policy interest rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is considering further increases in policy interest rates based on improvements in economic activity and price expectations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Activity - A member of the Bank of Japan indicated that if economic activity meets expectations, the central bank will continue to raise policy rates [1] Price Expectations - The decision to adjust interest rates will also depend on the improvement in price expectations alongside economic activity [1]

美联储理事鲍曼：现在是考虑调整政策利率的时候了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will cautiously adjust its policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes a careful approach to modifying interest rates to ensure economic stability [1]