加拿大央行官员本月早些时候决定将隔夜利率维持在2.25%，但他们不确定下一次政策调整是再次降息 还是转为加息。 在对其12月10日政策决定相关讨论的纪要中，加拿大央行决策者表示，"高度不确定性"使得"难以预测 下一次政策利率调整会在何时、朝哪个方向发生"。 加拿大央行重申，如果经济活动或通胀前景发生显著变化，它已准备好作出回应。 决策者们还指出，近期季度国内生产总值数据波动较大，"凸显了评估经济潜在趋势将面临的挑战"。他 们预计第四季度国内生产总值将偏弱，消费、住房活动和政府支出的增加将抵消企业投资和净出口疲软 的影响。 周二发布的国内生产总值初步估计数据显示，11月加拿大经济小幅扩张，此前10月份收缩0.3%，这表 明本季度经济增长很可能为负。 在对其12月10日政策决定相关讨论的纪要中，加拿大央行决策者表示，"高度不确定性"使得"难以预测 下一次政策利率调整会在何时、朝哪个方向发生"。 央行管理委员会的7名成员讨论了《美墨加协定》的未来动向将如何影响前景。如果该贸易协定破裂， 将对经济造成极大损害。但该纪要称，若达成一项"为北美贸易政策提供一定稳定性"的解决方案，可能 会刺激企业投资。 央行管理委员会的7 ...

惠誉解决方案旗下研究机构BMI的分析师报告称，印尼央行下周料将维持政策利率不变，然后在2026年 放松政策。这些分析师表示，通胀受控为进一步降息以支持政府的增长议程提供了空间。然而，进一步 降息的幅度和速度可能会受到印尼盾持续疲软的制约。疲软的出口增长和国内因素预计将继续拖累印尼 盾，从而限制了进一步放松政策的空间。BMI预计，到2026年底，印尼央行的政策利率将从目前的 4.75%降至4.25%。 ...

人民财讯12月9日电，惠誉预测显示，到2026年中期，美国、欧元区和英国的政策利率将接近预估的"中 性"水平。惠誉预计，美联储将在12月维持利率不变，但随着关税冲击趋于稳定且失业率小幅上升，联 邦公开市场委员会将在明年6月前降息三次。随着失业率显著上升，惠誉当前预计英国央行将在2026年 降息三次。预计欧洲央行则不会进一步降息。 ...

Core Insights - Barclays has adjusted its expectations for the Reserve Bank of India's interest rates, no longer anticipating a rate cut in December due to unexpectedly strong GDP data for the second quarter [1] - The bank believes that India's growth may have peaked, with a potential slowdown in growth rates in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - Barclays expects the tone of the Reserve Bank of India's policy statement in December to be accommodative [1] - The bank hopes for a potential trade agreement with the U.S. to be reached by the end of the year [1] - However, if the 50% tariff concerns from the U.S. persist until after 2025, further policy easing in 2026 cannot be ruled out [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Akira Noguchi, emphasizes that once supply and demand conditions tighten and begin to generate upward momentum, sustained price increases are not uncommon, as companies will compensate for previously delayed cost pass-throughs [1] - The sustainability of core inflation reaching the 2% target depends entirely on the momentum of wage increases and their spread to small and medium-sized enterprises and local economies [1] - If the price target is achieved in the latter half of the forecast period, the Bank of Japan should adjust interest rates at an appropriate pace to align with this timeline, indicating a need for a gradual increase in policy rates to smoothly reach the neutral rate when the 2% inflation target is met [1] Economic Context - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy has been limited so far [1] - A rapid or slow adjustment in policy rates could lead to issues; a fast rate hike may weaken wage growth momentum, making the 2% inflation target more elusive [1] - The Bank of Japan must exercise caution in policy adjustments due to the strong inertia of long-term deflation and zero inflation, despite prices having risen over 2% for more than three consecutive years [1] Risks of Policy Adjustment - The risk of slow policy adjustment lies in increasing the instability of economic activity and prices [1] - If the central bank decides not to raise rates until the price target is met, controlling inflation may become difficult unless a significant one-time increase in policy rates is implemented [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate that committee members believe the current low real interest rates warrant a continued increase in policy rates if inflation expectations are realized [1] Group 1 - Committee members expressed a desire to raise the policy interest rate to around 0.75% based on improvements in economic and price conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was passed with a 7 to 2 vote [1] - There was a proposal from committee members Takeda and Tamura to raise the short-term interest rate target from 0.50% to 0.75% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the importance of carefully examining its forecasts in light of high uncertainty in trade policies and their impact on the economy [1] - The central bank indicates that if economic and price trends align with its forecasts, it will continue to raise policy rates in response to improvements in the economy and prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.50% for the third consecutive time during the upcoming policy meeting, with analysts predicting no rate cuts in October and some delaying expectations for cuts to November or later due to ongoing risks from household debt growth and a heated real estate market [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - All 28 analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal anticipate that there will be no interest rate cuts in October [1]. - Some analysts have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to November or later, citing concerns over household debt and the real estate market [1]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Analysts highlight the risks associated with rising household debt and an overheated real estate market in Seoul, which could be exacerbated by lower borrowing costs [1]. - Barclays economist Bum Ki Son notes that the Bank of Korea seems skeptical about the stabilization of the real estate market and is concerned about the weakening of the Korean won, necessitating a more cautious approach [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - Barclays predicts that the Bank of Korea will lower interest rates in November [1].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, but emphasized that the subsequent policy path faces high uncertainty due to the government shutdown affecting official economic data and conflicting signals between the labor market and overall economic performance [1] Group 1 - Waller stated that the uncertainty surrounding data evolution necessitates caution in adjusting policy rates to avoid costly mistakes [1] - The government shutdown complicates the policy-making environment, with potential short-term volatility but a quick economic recovery expected once reopened [1] - However, if the shutdown persists, it could weaken economic growth potential and delay recovery, particularly impacting Q4 GDP [1]

Core Viewpoint - The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to maintain the policy rate at 11% to balance the current economic situation and address macroeconomic uncertainties caused by recent flooding [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Inflation in Pakistan is showing a relatively moderate trend from July to August 2025, despite a slowdown in the rate of decline [1] - Key economic indicators, such as large-scale manufacturing, are signaling a strengthening economic growth momentum [1] - The flooding has significantly impacted the economy, particularly affecting the agricultural sector on the supply side [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The SBP anticipates that the flooding will lead to a higher overall inflation level and current account deficit than previously expected for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Economic growth is projected to slow down compared to earlier expectations due to the adverse effects of the flooding [1] - The SBP believes that the current policy rate of 11% is sufficient to stabilize inflation within the medium-term target range of 5%-7% [1] Group 3: Policy Rate History - In March 2023, the SBP raised the policy rate to a high of 20% due to increasing inflationary pressures, maintaining it above 20% for 15 months [2] - The policy rate was subsequently lowered to 11% in June 2025, marking the lowest level since 2022, and has remained unchanged since then [2] - The SBP plans to conduct two more policy rate adjustments in the fiscal year 2025, tentatively scheduled for October 27 and December 15 [2]