Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for LVMH, but it implies a cautious optimism regarding the company's performance and strategies moving forward [7]. Core Insights - LVMH's revenue in 2025 was resilient at €80.8 billion, with an organic growth rate of -1% year-on-year, but profits were significantly impacted by foreign exchange headwinds and pressures in high-margin sectors, leading to a 9% decline in operating profit to €17.8 billion [8][9]. - The company experienced a notable divergence in performance across its segments, with Watches & Jewelry and Selective Retailing showing strong growth, while Fashion & Leather Goods and Wines & Spirits faced challenges [9][10]. - Management emphasized the importance of monitoring foreign exchange impacts on operational performance and profit sensitivity, indicating a strategic focus on cost discipline and selective investments to maintain cash flow and improve operational quality [8][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - LVMH achieved €80.8 billion in revenue for 2025, with a reported decline of 5% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange effects [8][11]. - The organic growth rate improved in the second half of 2025, reaching +1% in Q4, after a -3% decline in the first half [8][9]. Segment Analysis - In Q4 2025, organic revenue growth rates were as follows: Watches & Jewelry +8%, Selective Retailing +7%, Perfumes & Cosmetics -1%, Fashion & Leather Goods -3%, and Wines & Spirits -9% [9][10]. - For the full year, Selective Retailing grew by 4%, driven by Sephora's strong performance, while Watches & Jewelry saw a 3% increase, largely supported by the Japanese market [9][10]. Brand Performance - Core brands such as LV, Dior, and Tiffany showed varying strategies: LV maintained stability through new product launches and limited editions, Dior focused on aggressive marketing and product expansion, while Tiffany is in a transformation phase to enhance its brand and product mix [10][12]. - The report highlights the importance of high-end demand, noting a structural split in customer sensitivity to economic conditions, with ultra-high-net-worth individuals being more stable compared to the broader high-income segment [12][13]. Geographic Insights - LVMH's revenue mix remained balanced across regions, with the U.S., Europe, and Asia (excluding Japan) each contributing 26% to total revenue, while Japan's share decreased to 8% [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. and Europe showed stable growth patterns, while Japan experienced a significant decline of 12% in organic growth for FY25 [11]. Future Outlook - Management expressed a medium-to-long-term optimistic outlook, citing rising global living standards as a support for high-quality product demand, but acknowledged short-term uncertainties due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [7][13]. - The controlling Arnault family plans to increase its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in LVMH's long-term value creation capabilities [13].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游零售Ⅱ 中国中免（601888） 收购 DFS 大中华区，引入 LVMH 深化战略 合作 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 67,540 | 56,474 | 55,174 | 61,618 | 66,074 | | 同比（%） | 24.08 | (16.38) | (2.30) | 11.68 | 7.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,714 | 4,267 | 3,865 | 5,222 | 5,813 | | 同比（%） | 33.46 | (36.44) | (9.42) | 35.11 | 11.31 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.25 | 2.06 | 1.87 | 2.52 | 2.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.76 | 45.25 | 49.95 | 36.97 | 33.21 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% in those years [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a growth of 35.0% and 15.0% respectively [4][12]. - The company's net asset return rate is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and assets from two core stores in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition will be funded entirely by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing business operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].

强强联手 LVMH，开启新纪元 中国中免(601888) 中国中免跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 公司通过自有资金收购 DFS 大中华区业务并引入 LVMH 等战略投资者，以此深化 全球零售合作，未来有望实现高质量发展。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议。我们认为，本次交易若达成，有望显著提升公司在全球 奢侈品领域的溢价能力和国际话语权。公司有望成为具有全球化竞 争力的旅游零售综合服务商。暂不考虑收购，我们预计公司 2025 年 -2027 年归母利润各 39.47 亿元、5 ...

1月19日，中国中免宣布，其全资孙公司中免国际与DFS Venture Singapore(Pte) Limited（简称"DFS新 加坡"）、DFS Group Limited（简称"DFS香港"）签署《框架协议》，计划以现金方式收购DFS大中华 区旅游零售业务相关股权及资产，交易金额不超过3.95亿美元（约人民币27.5亿元），资金来源为中免 国际自有资金。 受消费需求走弱影响，公司经营持续承压，2025年前三季度业绩仍在下跌。截至2025年9月30日，公司 前三季度实现营业总收入398.62亿元，同比下降7.34%；归母净利润30.52亿元，同比下滑22.13%。 公开信息显示，中国中免的核心业务以免税零售为主，涵盖烟酒、香化、服饰等多品类商品的批发与零 售，同时涉足免税商业综合体投资开发业务。 早年间，中国中免便以香港为起点试探海外市场，通过资产收购快速切入核心商圈。公司曾收购香港华 懋集团旗下免税零售资产，将门店布局延伸至香港核心地段。此外，中国中免还以轻资产与收购结合模 式拓展东南亚及东亚市场，在柬埔寨收购开设免税店，与丽星、歌诗达邮轮合作运营免税店，亦联合企 业获香港、澳门国际机场免税经营权。 ...

Group 1: Hainan Tourism Retail Overview - Hainan's offshore duty-free policy is a core initiative for building an "International Tourism Island," significantly enhancing its international tourism consumption and ecological cultural competitiveness over the past decade[5] - The tourism industry in Hainan has evolved through three stages: policy-driven, factor aggregation, and innovation iteration, forming a tourism consumption system centered on high-end vacations, duty-free shopping, and all-region tourism[10] - The cumulative shopping amount is projected to exceed CNY 253 billion by 2025, with the duty-free shopping limit increasing from CNY 5,000 to CNY 100,000 per person per year[11] Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The offshore duty-free policy has undergone three phases: trial, expansion, and explosion, effectively stimulating tourism consumption and aligning with consumption upgrades[13] - The market has transitioned from basic needs to high-end, diversified, one-stop shopping experiences, with a significant increase in the proportion of imported goods and luxury brands[19] - The consumer demographic has shifted, with the Z generation's share rising from 25% in 2020 to 40% in 2023, indicating a trend towards younger and more personalized consumer needs[20] Group 3: Company Analysis - China Duty Free Group - China Duty Free Group operates six offshore duty-free stores in Hainan, establishing a "triangular" market structure centered around Sanya, Haikou, and Qionghai, thus controlling key traffic flows[27] - The company has expanded its channel layout through acquisitions, enhancing its market coverage and strategic positioning in Hainan[29] - The group is innovating its business model by integrating cultural experiences and marketing innovations, transforming duty-free shopping into a comprehensive lifestyle platform[30]

Core Viewpoint - The current tourism retail sector is characterized by a "relatively dispersed and low concentration" market structure, which presents challenges for growth and development [1] Group 1: Company Developments - ZHONGXIN Tourism Group's Vice President, Cao Jian, highlighted the need for a unique development model for its core retail brand, ZHONGXIN Youyou [1] - Since securing 50 million yuan in Pre-A round financing in 2024, ZHONGXIN Youyou has established over 2,500 tourism stores across 22 provinces and municipalities [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the revenue decline has narrowed and customer traffic has stabilized, with a focus on the increase in city store openings [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term sales increment due to the Hainan Free Trade Port policy and the gradual opening of city duty-free stores [9] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast downwards due to current pressure on duty-free consumption demand, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 4.33 billion, 5.00 billion, and 5.52 billion respectively [9] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 24.08%, while 2024 is expected to see a decline of 16.38% to 56.47 billion [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 6.71 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 33.46%, followed by a significant decline of 36.44% in 2024 to 4.27 billion [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 3.25 yuan, decreasing to 2.06 yuan in 2024 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 71.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 147.74 billion [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 22.01 for 2023, increasing to 34.62 for 2024 [1][6] - The company has a net asset value per share of 26.68 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.61% [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, continuing the downward trend observed since 2024, with a focus on strategic transformation and market adaptation in the face of increasing competition and changing consumer behavior [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.6 billion yuan, down 20.81% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The gross profit margin decreased, with the net profit margin reported at 6%, which is below market expectations [4]. - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were 75.152 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.45% from the beginning of the period [3]. Market Position - Despite the decline in overall revenue and profit, the company's market share in the Hainan offshore duty-free market increased by nearly 1 percentage point [1][5]. - The shopping amount in Hainan for the first half of the year was 16.761 billion yuan, showing a decline of 9.2% year-on-year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its strategic transformation by expanding its "duty-free+" boundaries and focusing on exclusive, co-branded, and customized products to stimulate consumer spending [5]. - Plans to enhance the dual-drive model of "duty-free + taxable" and "online + offline" are in place to adapt to upcoming changes in the market [8]. Management Changes - The company has experienced significant management turnover, with three chairpersons in the last two years, indicating potential instability in leadership during challenging times [7]. Future Outlook - With the upcoming full closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, the company anticipates benefiting from policy incentives and consumer upgrades, aiming for high-quality development through strategic adjustments [8].

Core Insights - Aesop, a high-end fragrance brand under L'Oréal Group, will close its first store in mainland China on May 11 due to lease expiration, while still maintaining 19 other stores in the region [1][2] - L'Oréal Group acquired Aesop for approximately $2.5 billion, marking it as the largest acquisition in the company's history [1] - Aesop's sales in 2022 reached $537 million, and the brand is expected to join L'Oréal's billion-dollar brand club in the future [2] Group 1: Business Performance - Aesop's business in China is still in its early stages, having opened its first store in 2022 [2] - L'Oréal's high-end cosmetics division faced performance challenges, with a revenue growth of only 2.7% in 2024, the lowest among its four main divisions [2] - Despite a 5% sales growth in China in 2023, L'Oréal did not separately report the performance of its high-end cosmetics division in the Chinese market [2][3] Group 2: Retail Strategy - L'Oréal's travel retail business is also under pressure, particularly in Hainan, with a focus on maintaining healthy inventory levels [3] - Aesop opened its first travel retail flagship store in Hainan's Sanya International Duty-Free City, emphasizing a unique store design and interactive travel experience [3] - In 2024, Aesop plans to open 13 new stores in China as part of a global expansion of 42 new stores [3] Group 3: Leadership Changes - Aesop recently underwent a leadership change with the departure of CEO Michael O'Keeffe, who had been with the company for 22 years [4] - The company has not yet announced a successor for O'Keeffe, who was instrumental in implementing a retail experience-focused strategy [4] - L'Oréal Group emphasized the importance of physical stores in its high-end cosmetics division, planning to open 165 new stores in 2024 [4]