Group 1 - The main contract for coke surged by 6% during the day, currently priced at 1709 yuan per ton [1] - The main contract for coking coal saw an increase of over 7% during the day, currently priced at 1165 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in coking coal and coke futures prices this week is driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1] Supply Analysis - Coking coal futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,259 CNY/ton, up 35.9% week-on-week; coke futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,763 CNY/ton, up 16.1% week-on-week [1] - Daily average coke production from independent coking enterprises reached 519,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.61%, up 0.71% from the previous week [1] - The initiation of the fourth round of price increases for coke, along with strong demand from steel mills, has contributed to the rise in production and capacity utilization [1] Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, and up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The profitability of steel mills increased to 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points week-on-week and up 48.49% year-on-year [1] - Daily average molten iron production was 2.4223 million tons, down 2,100 tons week-on-week, but up 26,200 tons year-on-year, indicating sustained high production levels [1] Inventory Analysis - Coking coal inventory at the 247 surveyed steel mills increased to 6.3998 million tons, up 9,900 tons week-on-week; coking coal inventory reached 7.9951 million tons, up 84,100 tons [1] - Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, with total coking coal inventory at 9.8538 million tons, up 562,700 tons week-on-week [1] Market Sentiment - The macroeconomic sentiment reflects a "de-involution" trend, with optimistic expectations regarding policies, leading to price increases [1] - The tight supply of coking coal and strong demand for coke, along with the initiation of the fourth round of price increases by coking enterprises, have contributed to positive market sentiment [1] - The market has seen increased activity due to prior valuation adjustments and speculative demand driven by price rebounds [1] Future Considerations - Future attention should be paid to macroeconomic policies, molten iron production, coal mine resumption, and the increase in imported Mongolian coal supply [1] - The strategy for coking coal and coke is expected to be volatile, with no current operations in cross-commodity, spot, or options trading [1]

Group 1 - Japanese rubber futures have risen for six consecutive weeks, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1] - Thai raw material prices have surged, suggesting increased production costs that may support further price increases [1] - The slowdown in inventory accumulation in the spot market, along with a reduction in port inventories, may signal changing market dynamics [1]

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Group 1 - The main contract for coke surged by 5.00% during the day, currently priced at 1657.00 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - Zinc prices have reached a four-month high, driven by a sudden disappearance of 59,000 tons of inventory, raising questions about whether this is due to real demand or capital manipulation [1] - Copper prices have increased by over 1%, approaching the 10,000 yuan mark, prompting speculation about the potential for further upward movement [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for alumina futures has surged, currently up over 5%, priced at 3278 yuan per ton [1]