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国内期货主力合约夜盘开盘涨跌不一,焦煤涨超1%
Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance in the night session, with some commodities experiencing gains while others faced declines [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal rose by over 1% [1] - Soybean meal, coking coal, and caustic soda saw slight increases [1] - Crude oil fell by over 1%, with fuel oil and paraxylene also experiencing minor declines [1]
冠通每日交易策略-20250917
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 10:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].
9月17日国内期货主力合约多数下跌 集运欧线跌近7%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 07:57
Group 1 - The majority of domestic commodity futures closed lower on September 17, with significant declines in various contracts [2] - The main contract for container shipping on the European route fell nearly 7%, while soybean meal and polysilicon dropped over 2% [2] - Other commodities such as alumina, Shanghai silver, and soybean No. 2 also experienced declines close to 2%, with live pigs and soybean meal dropping over 1% [2] Group 2 - In contrast, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) increased by nearly 2%, while SC crude oil and fuel oil rose by over 1% [2]
国内期货夜盘收盘,低硫燃料油、燃油、原油期货涨超1%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-16 15:23
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that domestic futures night trading saw significant increases, with low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and crude oil futures rising over 1% [1] Group 2 - The specific increase in low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and crude oil futures indicates a positive trend in the commodities market [1]
国内期货主力合约夜盘开盘涨跌不一 焦煤涨超2%
Group 1 - The domestic futures main contracts opened with mixed results during the night session, with coking coal rising over 2% [1] - Crude oil increased by more than 1%, while fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil saw slight gains [1] - Methanol and caustic soda experienced minor declines [1]
黑色系期货夜盘走高 焦煤期货涨2.2%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-12 14:23
Group 1 - The black series futures market saw an upward trend in the night session on September 12, with coking coal futures rising by 2.20% to 1162 RMB/ton [1] - Coking futures increased by 2.42%, reaching 1653 RMB/ton [1] - Stainless steel futures rose by 0.31%, priced at 12955 RMB/ton [1] - Dalian iron ore futures gained 0.69%, settling at 804 RMB/ton [1] - Manganese silicon futures decreased by 0.48%, now at 5832 RMB/ton [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures increased by 0.60%, priced at 3361 RMB/ton [1] - Fuel oil futures rose by 2.27%, reaching 2795 RMB/ton [1]
中国期货每日简报-20250826
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose, and most commodity futures increased, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][11][13] - Shanghai issued new property market policies, and the CSRC strengthened supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [39][40] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodity futures gained ground, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 6.5% with open interest up 3.1% month - on - month), fuel oil (up 5.1% with open interest up 4.5% month - on - month), and coke (up 4.4% with open interest up 6.2% month - on - month). The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 0.3% with open interest down 5.0% month - on - month), lithium carbonate (down 0.3% with open interest up 1.8% month - on - month), and polyester staple fiber (down 0.3% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On August 25, coking coal increased by 6.5% to 1215.5 yuan/ton. Supported by slow supply recovery and rigid demand from coking enterprises, the short - term futures market has support. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of major coal mine accidents [17][20][21] - Supply: Some coal mines in main production areas resumed operations, but new ones suspended or reduced production in some areas. Imported coal customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased. Demand: Coke output was stable with a slight increase, and coking enterprises procured based on demand. Upstream coal mines started to accumulate inventories slightly [18][19][21] 1.2.2 Coke - On August 25, coke increased by 4.4% to 1736 yuan/ton. With military parade - related production restriction expectations, the supply - demand tight situation may continue, and the futures market has support from rigid demand and production restriction expectations [26][28][29] - Supply: The seventh round of price increases was implemented, coking enterprise profits rebounded, and output picked up, but supply increase was limited due to high costs. Demand: Steel mills had good profits, steel exports improved, and the rigid demand for coke was strong. Inventory: Steel mills actively purchased, and coking enterprise inventories dropped to a low level and then slightly accumulated [27][28][29] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On August 25, fuel oil increased by 5.1% to 2907 yuan/ton. The reasons were Ukraine's attacks and US sanctions on Chinese companies, leading to the resurgence of the geopolitical premium for fuel oil. In the short - term, it performed strongly, and the bitumen - fuel oil price spread fell rapidly. In the context of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, it may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Shanghai issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures" on August 25, including policies on housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, credit, and property tax, effective from August 26, 2025 [39][40] - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China adjusted the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai on August 25, no longer differentiating between first - home and second - home loans [39][40] - Premier Li Qiang listened to the report on the implementation of policies for large - scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade - in on August 22, emphasizing strengthening coordination, cracking down on fraud, and releasing domestic demand potential [39][40] 2.2 Industry News - On August 22, the CSRC issued the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Internet Marketing by Futures Companies", strengthening the whole - process supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [40]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250730
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:11
Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]
夜盘开盘,国内期货主力合约涨多跌少,玻璃、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、焦炭、沪镍、20号胶涨超1%,跌幅方面,燃油、短纤,沥青小幅下跌。
news flash· 2025-07-10 13:03
Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more gains than losses, indicating a positive trend in various commodities [1] - Key commodities such as glass, iron ore, coking coal, soda ash, coking coal, nickel, and No. 20 rubber saw increases of over 1% [1] - In contrast, fuel oil, short fibers, and asphalt experienced slight declines [1]
夜盘开盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌不一,低硫燃料油、燃油、原油、烧碱期货主力合约涨幅近1%,跌幅方面,沪锡、沪银、玻璃跌近1%。
news flash· 2025-07-07 13:05
Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with mixed performance among the main contracts, with low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, crude oil, and caustic soda futures rising nearly 1% [1] - In contrast, Shanghai tin, Shanghai silver, and glass futures experienced declines of nearly 1% [1]