1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Fuel oil [1] - Report cycle: Daily report [1] - Date of composition: March 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - Contract Quotes - On March 16, the opening price of the SHFE fuel oil (FU.SHF) main contract was 4,573 yuan/ton, the closing price was 4,848 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,986 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,551 yuan/ton, and the daily increase was 1.81%. The trading volume was 1.1902 million lots, and the open interest was 284,100 lots [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts drive up crude oil costs: The Middle - East situation escalated over the weekend. The market was concerned about the transportation safety of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil approached $100/barrel at the beginning of the week, driving up the domestic crude oil and chemical sectors. As a downstream product of crude oil, the cost support of fuel oil has increased [5] - Improved demand - side expectations: Vietnam reduced the fuel oil import tariff from 7% to 0% on March 9 to stabilize domestic energy supply, which may drive up the regional fuel oil import demand and be beneficial to prices [5][6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Key Points - In the short term, the fuel oil price is dominated by crude oil geopolitical risks and shows a strong trend. Pay attention to the integer mark of 5,000 yuan/ton as the upper pressure level and 4,500 yuan/ton as the lower support level. Focus on the situation changes in the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict continues to escalate and oil prices rise further, fuel oil may challenge the previous high; if the geopolitical risks ease and oil prices fall, fuel oil may face a correction risk [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 16, most equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IF rose 0.1%, and IC dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Bitumen, Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin For Bottles and Propylene, while the top three decliners were Silver, Palladium and SCFIS(Europe) [10][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 16, most equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. IF rose 0.1%, and IC dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, Bitumen rose 10.6% with open interest increasing 38.8% month - on - month; Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin For Bottles gained 7.4% with open interest increasing 15.7% month - on - month; Propylene advanced 3.7% with open interest decreasing 3.9% month - on - month. On the downside, Silver plummeted 6.3% with open interest increasing 2.2% month - on - month; Palladium dropped 4.2% with open interest increasing 2.1% month - on - month; SCFIS(Europe) slid 4.0% with open interest decreasing 1.7% month - on - month [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 16, the Crude Oil main contract rose 1.6% to 765.5 yuan/barrel (INE). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to supply reductions and heightened uncertainty over their duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trend strongly range - bound. The Strait of Hormuz traffic disruptions have reduced Gulf nations' exports, and the IEA's plan to release strategic petroleum reserves has limited impact. The crude oil market currently faces a significant supply deficit and is in an upward phase [17][18][19] 1.2.2 Bitumen - On March 16, the main contract of Bitumen rose 10.6% to 4464 yuan/ton (SHFE). Geopolitical disturbances remain strong, and bitumen futures prices fluctuate widely. Supply - side factors include disrupted Middle Eastern crude oil supply expectations, high fuel oil cracking spreads, and poor refinery margins. Demand is suppressed by high prices, and inventory year - on - year decline has narrowed. Bitumen's relative valuation against some oil products is low, but high relative to rebar [22][23][24] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On March 16, the main contract of Fuel Oil rose 1.8% to 4848 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuated widely, driven mainly by geopolitical disturbances. Supply is sensitive to geopolitical tensions, and demand's short - term focus is on the energy rally. After the sharp rally, its economic viability for power generation and as a feedstock has deteriorated. The core driver is the U.S. - Iran situation [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China - US economic and trade consultations started in Paris on March 15. Trump threatened to delay his China visit if China doesn't assist in the Strait of Hormuz escort, and China's Foreign Ministry said the two sides are maintaining communication. The US plans to announce a Strait of Hormuz "escort coalition". Trump threatened NATO allies to help keep the Strait open. At the end of February, M2 balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; M1 was 115.93 trillion yuan, up 5.9% YoY; M0 was 15.14 trillion yuan, up 14.1% YoY. In January - February, SVIA rose 6.3% YoY, national fixed - asset investment rose 1.8% YoY, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 2.8% YoY, and national real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report elaborates on the demand and practice of energy risk management, emphasizing the importance of hedging in energy trading and providing multiple application cases and participation models [8][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Energy Risk Management Demand - **Policy Support**: In October 2024, the "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision, Preventing Risks, and Promoting the High - quality Development of the Futures Market" proposed to enhance the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market in serving the real economy, expand the opening - up of the futures market, and support entities in risk management [9][10][11]. - **Necessity of Risk Management**: Energy industries face issues such as floating procurement costs and sales revenues, cost limitations in procurement, inventory, and sales management, contradictions between over - inventory in peak seasons and inventory reduction in off - seasons, and cyclical fluctuations in industry profits. Hedging can transfer price risks and reduce profit volatility [14][16][20]. - **Hedging Principles**: The futures and spot markets have the same supply - demand influencing factors, similar price trends, and price convergence on the delivery date. Holding opposite futures contracts to the spot position can hedge price risks. Basis affects the hedging effect [17][20]. - **Energy Hedging Tools**: Introduces various energy futures contracts, including crude oil (INE SC, Nymex WTI, ICE Brent), gasoline (RBOB, Mogas 92, etc.), fuel oil, and natural gas, detailing their contract specifications such as contract unit, minimum price change, contract months, trading time, and delivery method [24][25][27]. 3.2 Energy Risk Management Practice - **Application Cases** - **Refinery Locking Processing Profit Hedging**: A refinery sold a 3:2:1 crack spread futures contract in September and repurchased it in October, with a futures profit of $5.8 per barrel, plus the spot market crack profit [36][37][38]. - **Refinery Maintenance Hedging**: A refinery bought a 1:1 gasoline crack spread futures contract in January and sold it in March, with a futures profit of $14.2 per barrel, plus the spot market crack profit [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil Trader Hedging**: Customer A hedged the price and exchange rate of 150,000 tons of imported crude oil. After hedging, the inventory loss was about $3.34 million, and the exchange rate hedging profit was about 17.95 million RMB, with a hedging cost of $23,520 [44][45]. - **Participation Modes** - **Direct Participation in Overseas Market Trading**: Use instant messaging tools, emails, and TAS or SMM for trading. Brent crude oil uses cash settlement and TAS trading for smooth position transfer and to avoid risks [48][49][51]. - **Participation through TRS**: Suitable for domestic qualified institutional investors, settled in RMB. The customer pays a margin or option premium at the beginning and obtains the profit and loss of the derivative contract linked to overseas underlying assets at the end. Compared with direct overseas market trading, there are differences in participation currency, exchange rate, access requirements, trading time, and margin call [52][55][57]. 3.3 Related Research Frameworks The report lists research frameworks for various futures products in China, including energy and chemicals, agricultural products, metals, macro - economy, equity index, national bond, exchange rate, and cross - border arbitrage [61][63][65].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall adjustment in the morning, with the coal sector rising significantly, becoming the biggest highlight with an increase of over 3% [1][4] - The coal sector saw notable gains, with stocks like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Yanzhou Coal Mining hitting the daily limit, while companies such as China Coal Energy, Shanxi Black Cat, and Lu'an Environmental Energy rose by more than 5% [4] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a sharp increase in oil prices, which has heightened market attention on coal and other alternative energy sources [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a surge in coal-related stocks, with some stocks experiencing intraday increases of over 20% [2][11] - China Xuyang Group, a major player in the coal industry, saw its stock price soar by over 20% during intraday trading, with a significant increase in trading volume [13] - The company operates multiple production parks across various regions and is involved in the management of several coal-related projects [13] Group 3 - The oil and petrochemical sectors also performed well, with stocks like Guanghui Energy and Donghua Energy rising by over 5% [7] - Domestic futures markets saw a significant rise in low-sulfur oil futures, which surged over 19%, reaching a new high for the year [15][16] - Crude oil futures also experienced a substantial increase, with the main contract rising by over 18% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, equity index futures declined, while most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise [10][11][12] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has increased the uncertainty of oil supply reduction and duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [16][19] - The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and geopolitical tensions remain a strong disturbance to heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - The Europe route remains in a trend of rising both supply and demand, with spot freight rates bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [29][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 9, equity index futures declined (IF dropped 1.1%, IH dropped 1.0%), and CGB futures also declined (TL dropped 1.13%, T dropped 0.22%). Most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil among the top gainers, and Tin, Palladium, and Platinum among the top decliners [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 9, the crude oil main contract rose 17.0% to 771.8 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty. If tensions persist, near-month contracts may have more upside potential; if tensions ease, prices may peak and decline, but it's unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels quickly [16][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On March 9, the fuel oil main contract rose 17.0% to 4548 yuan/ton. The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated, disturbing heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On March 9, the main contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 20.0% to 2236.4 points. The Europe route is in a supply-demand growth trend, with spot freight rates rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [28][29][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - In February 2026, China's PPI fell 0.9% YoY (decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points) and rose 0.4% MoM. The CPI rose 1.3% YoY, with urban prices rising 1.4%, rural prices rising 0.9%, etc. G-7 finance ministers will discuss a coordinated release of oil reserves [36] 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges issued risk alert letters due to complex and volatile Middle East situation. Exchanges also adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading limits, and trading commissions for various futures contracts [41][51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil futures price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term. Technically, the price breaks through the key resistance level and opens up upward space, with 3,186 yuan/ton becoming a new important support level. Fundamentally, the Middle - East geopolitical situation remains the main factor affecting the price. If the conflict further escalates, it may push the price higher [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract行情 - On March 2, the main fuel oil contract (FU.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a strong upward trend. It opened at 3,024 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 3,024 yuan/ton and the highest at 3,186 yuan/ton, closing at the daily limit of 3,186 yuan/ton, up 9% from the previous trading day. The trading volume significantly increased to 1,046,282 lots, and the open interest was 300,245 lots [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Middle - East geopolitical conflict escalates: The U.S. military and Israel launched large - scale air strikes on Iran, and Iran announced a ban on any ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a halt in international tanker navigation and triggering market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions [4][5]. - International oil prices rise sharply: Affected by the geopolitical situation, ICE Brent crude oil opened with a 13% surge to $82 per barrel, and WTI crude oil futures rose more than 10% to $75 per barrel, providing strong cost support for domestic fuel oil prices [5]. - Thailand suspends fuel oil exports: Thailand plans to suspend fuel oil exports due to concerns about supply disruptions and sets up an energy emergency monitoring center, intensifying the market's expectation of global fuel oil supply shortages [5]. - S&P Global Platts suspends the price assessment of Middle - East refined oil: Due to the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, S&P Global Platts suspends the price assessment of Middle - East refined oil transported through the strait, increasing market uncertainty [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Key Points - The fuel oil futures price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term. Technically, the price breaks through the key resistance level and opens up upward space, with 3,186 yuan/ton becoming a new important support level. Fundamentally, the Middle - East geopolitical situation remains the main factor affecting the price. If the conflict further escalates, it may push the price higher [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 3rd, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some hitting the daily limit, while some others like lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin hit the daily limit down, and stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance [4][5] - The prices of various futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, with different futures showing different trends and potential risks [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Container Shipping Europe Line, Fuel Oil, SC Crude Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Methanol, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Plastic, Polypropylene (PP), Ethylene Glycol (EG) hit the daily limit; Propylene rose over 8%; Pure Benzene rose nearly 7%; p - Xylene (PX), Styrene (EB), Asphalt rose nearly 5%; Apple and Coking Coal rose over 4% [4][5] - **Losers**: Lithium Carbonate and Shanghai Tin hit the daily limit down; Shanghai Silver fell over 9%; Platinum fell over 8%; Palladium fell over 6% [5] - **Stock Index Futures**: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%; SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%; CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%; CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%; 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat; 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%; 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract rose 0.09% [5] - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:21 on March 3rd, Apple 2605 had an inflow of 751 million, Fuel Oil 2605 had an inflow of 386 million, and Crude Oil 2604 had an inflow of 345 million; Shanghai Gold 2604 had an outflow of 7.552 billion, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an outflow of 4.520 billion, and Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 4.155 billion [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved lower, with a decline on the day. The US ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months in February, and the Iran conflict may increase inflation pressure. A bridge collapse in Zambia disrupted copper exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but restoration work was underway. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons month - on - month, a 3.13% decline, and was expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March, with a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream terminals, and the copper market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure [6] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened low and moved lower, hitting the daily limit on the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,500 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton. The supply was affected by seasonal and holiday - related production cuts in February, with an expected output of 81,900 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease. Downstream battery production remained relatively high, and inventory decreased by about 2,900 tons. However, due to geopolitical conflicts and changes in tariff policies, the price dropped significantly [8] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production plan may be adjusted. The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased significantly beyond expectations. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated, and the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, affecting oil transportation. Qatar's liquefied natural gas production was also affected. The Middle East situation remains tense, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [9][11] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% last week, and it is expected to produce 2.187 million tons in March 2026, a 13.0% month - on - month increase. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall shipment volume decreased, and the factory inventory increased. The supply of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil is uncertain, and asphalt prices are expected to rise with crude oil prices, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [12][14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 27th, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. On March 3rd, the PP企业开工率 was around 79%, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing increased. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation has a positive impact on PP, but the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [15] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 3rd, the plastic开工率 was around 91%. As of the week of February 27th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has a positive impact on plastic. New production capacity was put into operation at the beginning of the year, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [16][17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwestern region decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, and the downstream开工率 increased after the Spring Festival but is still lower than the same period last year. Export orders may be at a low level in March, the social inventory is high, and the real - estate market recovery is slow. PVC has a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to fluctuate strongly [18] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved high, rising over 4% on the day. The import of Mongolian coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are resuming work, with an increase in mine inventory. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The iron water output has increased, but there may be short - term interference during the Two Sessions. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rose, but there is a risk of correction in the future [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and moved low on the day. The futures price decline affected the spot trading activity. The daily output has reached around 220,000 tons, and the upstream inventory is lower than the same period last year. March is the peak agricultural demand season, and the demand for high - nitrogen compound fertilizers is expected to support urea. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and there is a risk of a compensatory increase [21]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant surge in oil stocks due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict, with the Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index reaching a 10-year high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 3rd, the A-share market's oil stocks experienced a substantial increase, with the Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index rising over 7% and surpassing its 2021 peak [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has reached a 10-year high in A-share price, and its adjusted price has hit a 17-year high since 2009 [1][6]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has also seen its A-shares hit a historical high for the second consecutive trading day [4]. Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - The oil and petrochemical sector has witnessed a wave of stocks hitting the daily limit, including Tongyuan Petroleum and Qianeng Hengxin, with over ten stocks reaching the limit [5]. - China Petroleum's A-shares have also been on a limit-up streak for two consecutive days, achieving a recent 10-year high [6]. Group 3: Futures Market - Domestic oil-related futures have shown remarkable growth, with the main fuel futures contract hitting the daily limit with a 12% increase, totaling over 20% in two trading days [10]. - The main crude oil futures contract has also reached the daily limit with a similar 12% increase, accumulating over 20% in two days [11]. - Other related futures, such as low-sulfur oil and liquefied gas, have also experienced significant gains [12]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Huazhang Futures believes that the US-Iran conflict has evolved into a regional crisis affecting global oil supply, with key variables including the production capacity of Iran and surrounding oil-producing countries, as well as the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz [15]. - Dongwu Securities suggests that while the initial phase of the conflict may exert downward pressure on global markets, the impact on the A-share market may be pulse-like and not lead to a systemic shift, with China's stable industrial trends continuing to drive A-share performance [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, with most commodities performing well and Energy & Chemicals leading the gains. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil were the top three gainers, while Poly-Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. - The price of crude oil is expected to rise due to supply disruptions. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have supported prices since January, and after the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. The outcome of the conflict will affect the price range of Brent crude [16][17][20]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will impact Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread [26][27][29]. - The rise in the SCFIS(Europe) contract is mainly sentiment - driven in the short term. Houthi militants' threat to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities showed high performances, with Energy & Chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil, and the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide [10][11][12]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Raise 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Crude Oil rose 9.0% to 527.8 yuan/barrel (INE). Since January, prices have been supported by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. After the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. If the conflict is limited to military targets and ends in the short term, Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $70 - 78 per barrel before retreating. If the conflict impacts crude oil production or transportation, short - term price volatility will intensify [16][17][20]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Fuel Oil rose 9.0% to 3186 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will directly hit Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread. Investors may watch for opportunities to long bitumen and short fuel oil if the forward spread falls below 400 yuan per tone [26][27][29]. 3.2.3 SCFIS(Europe) - On March 2, the front - month contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 15.0% to 1429.2 points (INE). Houthi militants' claim to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The impact on Europe routes is mostly sentiment - driven in the short term. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - On March 1, Wang Yi spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. China and Russia pushed for an emergency UNSC meeting on Iran. China upholds the UN Charter, opposes the use of force, and is highly concerned about the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. On March 2, MOFCOM stated China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [43].