Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/03/03 10-09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract 期货：3 月 2 日，股指期货涨跌不一；商品期货多数上涨，能化领涨。 News: Wang Yi speaks with Lavrov by phone. (X ...

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2026年2月27日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。氧化铝跌超3%，碳酸锂、钯、沪银、聚氯乙 烯（PVC）、燃油跌超2%，塑料、PTA、甲醇跌近2%；涨幅方面，沪锡涨超2%，SC原油、白糖、豆一 涨近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 来机 | 空母们 | 演唱歌 | 来源 | 委员 | 成交量 | 湘路 | 持命量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护锡2604 M | 433000 | 7 | 432980 | 433000 | 3.54% | 1 | 4 | 195884 14820 | | 46994 | 8816 | | 2 | 油菜籽2609 M | 5795 | 1 | 5760 | 5819 | 1.44% | T | 1 | 9 | 82 | 23 | -5 | | 3 | 紅枣2605 M | 8952 | 6 | 8950 | 8955 | 0.73% | 110 | 205 | 6411 | 65 | 119 ...

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical easing, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [15][23]. Market Overview - The overall market is in a fluctuating but strong trend, with the strongest sectors being crude oil, feed, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy [22][23]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, before a sharp decline due to selling pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman [20]. Trading Strategies - Key trading commodities include live pigs, fuel, and soybeans, with a focus on maintaining a cautious approach and locking in profits through phased selling strategies [24][25]. - The strategy for live pigs involved a trend-following short position, achieving an 11% profit before gradually reducing exposure [25][26]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, while geopolitical tensions are affecting energy supply chains [23]. - The end of the supercycle is putting pressure on exporting countries' finances, but it provides some relief for global inflation [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were stable, and commodity futures were mixed, with the energy sector leading the increase [2][10][12] - The turnover of China's futures market in January 2026 reached RMB 100.26 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 105.14%, and the trading volume was 912.49 million contracts, a year - on - year increase of 65.09%. By the end of January, the total open interest increased by 14.65% month - on - month [3][37] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On Feb 10, in equity index futures, IH rose 0.4% and IC rose 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.01% and TL rose 0.01% [10] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 4.2% month - on - month), Sodium Hydroxide (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 13.9% month - on - month), and No.1 Soybean (up 2.4% with open interest increasing 27.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.6% with open interest increasing 8.9% month - on - month), Coke (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 4.3% month - on - month), and Coking Coal (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 6.4% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 476.1 yuan/barrel. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical factors frequently disrupt supply expectations. The short - term trend will be range - bound volatility. The current fundamentals are not optimistic, with high inventories and pressured refining margins. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran relationship and India's Russian crude imports, affect supply expectations and support oil prices [17][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 2,845 yuan/ton. The futures prices are at high levels. The expectation of rising oil production in Venezuela will weigh on HSFO in the long term, and short - term focus is on Middle East geopolitical developments. Key logics include the US - Iran negotiation situation, potential heavy oil supply increase from Venezuela, and the long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East [25][26][27] 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Ethenylbenzene**: On Feb 10, the front - month contract dropped 1.0% to 7,473 yuan/ton. The upward momentum has weakened recently due to three factors: crude oil prices near the upper end of the trading range, marginal loosening of supply and demand, and expected improvement in the overseas supply - demand balance. Although the seasonal inventory build - up in February is revised lower, the positive impact of exports on futures prices is gradually weakening [30][31][32] 3.2 China News - Industry News - **Stock Exchanges' Measures**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, streamlining the review process for high - quality listed companies and revising rules for "asset - light, high R&D investment" listed companies [37] - **Futures Market Turnover**: In January 2026, China's futures market recorded 912.49 million contracts traded and a turnover of RMB 100.26 trillion, up 65.09% and 105.14% year on year respectively, and the total open interest increased by 14.65% month on month by the end of January [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic futures contracts showed a mixed performance, with precious metals experiencing a strong rebound, particularly silver and gold, which rose over 7% and 6% respectively [3][7] - The article highlights that coking coal and fuel oil also saw significant increases, with gains exceeding 5% and 4% respectively, while indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 fell by over 1% [3][7] Group 2 - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures suggest that the recent rebound in gold prices may be primarily due to short-term overselling, with speculative buying contributing to price recovery, indicating that the overall short-term driving force is not strong [5][9] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming US ADP employment data to assess the latest changes in the private sector employment situation, which could impact market sentiment [5][9] - From a technical perspective, short-term support for gold is noted around the 1100 level, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while the previous significant bearish opening price around 1140 serves as a key resistance level [5][9]

Market Overview - The silver futures market experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling 20% shortly after opening on February 2, following a previous day of trading that also saw major declines in other commodities like tin, oil, and nickel [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain a rational approach to trading amid increased market volatility [1] Price Movements - Gold prices peaked at a historical high of $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, but fell to around $4,600 by February 2 [2] - Silver prices also saw a drastic decline, dropping from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 to approximately $80 by February 2 [2] - In the domestic futures market, the main gold contract fell from a high of 1,258.72 yuan per gram to about 1,050 yuan by February 2, while the main silver contract dropped from 32,382 yuan per kilogram to around 20,600 yuan [2] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [1] - The recent market downturn is seen as a "chain reaction" triggered by the collapse of the U.S. financial market, exacerbated by the nomination of a hawkish figure for the Federal Reserve chair position [1] - The SHFE has proactively implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including increasing margin requirements and expanding price fluctuation limits [2] Regulatory Actions - The SHFE has taken regulatory measures against certain clients for exceeding trading limits, which included restricting their ability to open new positions [4] - The exchange has also issued penalties for manipulative trading practices, including suspensions of trading for involved parties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver and other commodity futures is primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the limit down [2]. - Other futures contracts, including tin, crude oil, fuel oil, and nickel, also experienced significant declines [2]. - The SHFE issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain market stability amid increased volatility [2]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold prices peaked on January 29 at $5,598.75 per ounce but fell to around $4,600 by February 2 [3]. - Silver prices dropped from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 to approximately $80 by February 2 [3]. - In the domestic futures market, the main gold contract reached a high of 1,258.72 yuan per gram on January 29, falling to about 1,050 yuan by February 2 [3]. - The main silver contract peaked at 32,382 yuan per kilogram on January 30, dropping to around 20,600 yuan by February 2 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The SHFE proactively issued risk warnings and adjusted trading limits and margin requirements to mitigate external shocks [4]. - The exchange has implemented measures to monitor market risks and has taken regulatory actions against clients exceeding trading limits [5]. - Specific clients were penalized for engaging in manipulative trading practices, resulting in temporary trading suspensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in silver and gold futures prices, primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances, rather than domestic fundamentals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, 2026, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the limit down [3]. - Other futures contracts, including copper, crude oil, and nickel, also experienced substantial declines [3]. - The London spot gold price peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, 2026, before dropping to around $4,600 by February 2, 2026 [4]. - Similarly, the London spot silver price fell from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29, 2026, to approximately $80 by February 2, 2026 [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses - The SHFE issued a risk warning early in the market's volatility and increased the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements to mitigate external shocks [5]. - The exchange has been actively monitoring the market and has implemented various risk management measures to ensure orderly market operations [5]. - On February 2, 2026, the SHFE imposed restrictions on certain clients for exceeding trading limits, in accordance with its regulations [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to a rapid release of accumulated risks, following speculative trading based on long-term trends like "de-dollarization" [4]. - The leverage level for silver futures has decreased from 7-8 times to around 4-5 times due to the exchange's margin adjustments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors, particularly the impact of the U.S. financial market turmoil and changes in Federal Reserve leadership expectations, rather than domestic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the daily limit down after a previous day of limit down trading [1]. - Other futures contracts, including copper, crude oil, and nickel, also experienced significant declines [1]. - The London spot gold price peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29 but dropped to around $4,600 by February 2, while silver fell from a high of $121.647 to approximately $80 per ounce in the same period [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses - The SHFE issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain compliance to ensure market stability amid increased volatility [1]. - The exchange has implemented measures such as increasing margin requirements and expanding the price fluctuation limits for certain contracts to mitigate external shocks [2]. - Specific clients were subjected to trading restrictions due to exceeding trading volume limits, indicating a proactive approach to managing abnormal trading behaviors [4]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the extreme volatility in precious metals is a result of rapid risk release from prior concentrated trading based on long-term market expectations [1]. - The leverage in silver futures has decreased from 7-8 times to around 4-5 times, reflecting the impact of increased margin levels [3]. - Continuous monitoring and risk prevention measures by the SHFE are aimed at guiding market participants towards rational investment behaviors [2].