地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 3 月 3 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/03/03 10-09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract 期货：3 月 2 日，股指期货涨跌不一；商品期货多数上涨，能化领涨。 News: Wang Yi speaks with Lavrov by phone. (X ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 商品表现 ...

2026年2月27日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。氧化铝跌超3%，碳酸锂、钯、沪银、聚氯乙 烯（PVC）、燃油跌超2%，塑料、PTA、甲醇跌近2%；涨幅方面，沪锡涨超2%，SC原油、白糖、豆一 涨近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 来机 | 空母们 | 演唱歌 | 来源 | 委员 | 成交量 | 湘路 | 持命量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护锡2604 M | 433000 | 7 | 432980 | 433000 | 3.54% | 1 | 4 | 195884 14820 | | 46994 | 8816 | | 2 | 油菜籽2609 M | 5795 | 1 | 5760 | 5819 | 1.44% | T | 1 | 9 | 82 | 23 | -5 | | 3 | 紅枣2605 M | 8952 | 6 | 8950 | 8955 | 0.73% | 110 | 205 | 6411 | 65 | 119 ...

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical easing, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [15][23]. Market Overview - The overall market is in a fluctuating but strong trend, with the strongest sectors being crude oil, feed, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy [22][23]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, before a sharp decline due to selling pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman [20]. Trading Strategies - Key trading commodities include live pigs, fuel, and soybeans, with a focus on maintaining a cautious approach and locking in profits through phased selling strategies [24][25]. - The strategy for live pigs involved a trend-following short position, achieving an 11% profit before gradually reducing exposure [25][26]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, while geopolitical tensions are affecting energy supply chains [23]. - The end of the supercycle is putting pressure on exporting countries' finances, but it provides some relief for global inflation [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were stable, and commodity futures were mixed, with the energy sector leading the increase [2][10][12] - The turnover of China's futures market in January 2026 reached RMB 100.26 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 105.14%, and the trading volume was 912.49 million contracts, a year - on - year increase of 65.09%. By the end of January, the total open interest increased by 14.65% month - on - month [3][37] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On Feb 10, in equity index futures, IH rose 0.4% and IC rose 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.01% and TL rose 0.01% [10] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 4.2% month - on - month), Sodium Hydroxide (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 13.9% month - on - month), and No.1 Soybean (up 2.4% with open interest increasing 27.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.6% with open interest increasing 8.9% month - on - month), Coke (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 4.3% month - on - month), and Coking Coal (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 6.4% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 476.1 yuan/barrel. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical factors frequently disrupt supply expectations. The short - term trend will be range - bound volatility. The current fundamentals are not optimistic, with high inventories and pressured refining margins. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran relationship and India's Russian crude imports, affect supply expectations and support oil prices [17][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 2,845 yuan/ton. The futures prices are at high levels. The expectation of rising oil production in Venezuela will weigh on HSFO in the long term, and short - term focus is on Middle East geopolitical developments. Key logics include the US - Iran negotiation situation, potential heavy oil supply increase from Venezuela, and the long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East [25][26][27] 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Ethenylbenzene**: On Feb 10, the front - month contract dropped 1.0% to 7,473 yuan/ton. The upward momentum has weakened recently due to three factors: crude oil prices near the upper end of the trading range, marginal loosening of supply and demand, and expected improvement in the overseas supply - demand balance. Although the seasonal inventory build - up in February is revised lower, the positive impact of exports on futures prices is gradually weakening [30][31][32] 3.2 China News - Industry News - **Stock Exchanges' Measures**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, streamlining the review process for high - quality listed companies and revising rules for "asset - light, high R&D investment" listed companies [37] - **Futures Market Turnover**: In January 2026, China's futures market recorded 912.49 million contracts traded and a turnover of RMB 100.26 trillion, up 65.09% and 105.14% year on year respectively, and the total open interest increased by 14.65% month on month by the end of January [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic futures contracts showed a mixed performance, with precious metals experiencing a strong rebound, particularly silver and gold, which rose over 7% and 6% respectively [3][7] - The article highlights that coking coal and fuel oil also saw significant increases, with gains exceeding 5% and 4% respectively, while indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 fell by over 1% [3][7] Group 2 - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures suggest that the recent rebound in gold prices may be primarily due to short-term overselling, with speculative buying contributing to price recovery, indicating that the overall short-term driving force is not strong [5][9] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming US ADP employment data to assess the latest changes in the private sector employment situation, which could impact market sentiment [5][9] - From a technical perspective, short-term support for gold is noted around the 1100 level, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while the previous significant bearish opening price around 1140 serves as a key resistance level [5][9]

Market Overview - The silver futures market experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling 20% shortly after opening on February 2, following a previous day of trading that also saw major declines in other commodities like tin, oil, and nickel [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain a rational approach to trading amid increased market volatility [1] Price Movements - Gold prices peaked at a historical high of $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, but fell to around $4,600 by February 2 [2] - Silver prices also saw a drastic decline, dropping from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 to approximately $80 by February 2 [2] - In the domestic futures market, the main gold contract fell from a high of 1,258.72 yuan per gram to about 1,050 yuan by February 2, while the main silver contract dropped from 32,382 yuan per kilogram to around 20,600 yuan [2] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [1] - The recent market downturn is seen as a "chain reaction" triggered by the collapse of the U.S. financial market, exacerbated by the nomination of a hawkish figure for the Federal Reserve chair position [1] - The SHFE has proactively implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including increasing margin requirements and expanding price fluctuation limits [2] Regulatory Actions - The SHFE has taken regulatory measures against certain clients for exceeding trading limits, which included restricting their ability to open new positions [4] - The exchange has also issued penalties for manipulative trading practices, including suspensions of trading for involved parties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver and other commodity futures is primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the limit down [2]. - Other futures contracts, including tin, crude oil, fuel oil, and nickel, also experienced significant declines [2]. - The SHFE issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain market stability amid increased volatility [2]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold prices peaked on January 29 at $5,598.75 per ounce but fell to around $4,600 by February 2 [3]. - Silver prices dropped from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 to approximately $80 by February 2 [3]. - In the domestic futures market, the main gold contract reached a high of 1,258.72 yuan per gram on January 29, falling to about 1,050 yuan by February 2 [3]. - The main silver contract peaked at 32,382 yuan per kilogram on January 30, dropping to around 20,600 yuan by February 2 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The SHFE proactively issued risk warnings and adjusted trading limits and margin requirements to mitigate external shocks [4]. - The exchange has implemented measures to monitor market risks and has taken regulatory actions against clients exceeding trading limits [5]. - Specific clients were penalized for engaging in manipulative trading practices, resulting in temporary trading suspensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in silver and gold futures prices, primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances, rather than domestic fundamentals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, 2026, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the limit down [3]. - Other futures contracts, including copper, crude oil, and nickel, also experienced substantial declines [3]. - The London spot gold price peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, 2026, before dropping to around $4,600 by February 2, 2026 [4]. - Similarly, the London spot silver price fell from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29, 2026, to approximately $80 by February 2, 2026 [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses - The SHFE issued a risk warning early in the market's volatility and increased the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements to mitigate external shocks [5]. - The exchange has been actively monitoring the market and has implemented various risk management measures to ensure orderly market operations [5]. - On February 2, 2026, the SHFE imposed restrictions on certain clients for exceeding trading limits, in accordance with its regulations [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to a rapid release of accumulated risks, following speculative trading based on long-term trends like "de-dollarization" [4]. - The leverage level for silver futures has decreased from 7-8 times to around 4-5 times due to the exchange's margin adjustments [6].