Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

Market Overview - As of November 26, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with peanuts rising nearly 4% and polysilicon up nearly 3%, while the shipping index for Europe dropped nearly 8% [3][20] - The A-share market exhibited divergent trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, reflecting a rotation of funds among high-dividend defensive sectors and oversold tech stocks [7] Commodity Predictions - The outlook for various commodities is categorized as follows: bullish for corn, crude oil, and glass; neutral for a wide range of products including aluminum and lithium; and bearish for soybean meal and palm oil [4] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in September increased by only 0.2%, indicating consumer fatigue amid rising prices due to tariffs, although economists expect robust economic growth in Q3 [5] - The U.S. government reported a fiscal deficit of $284 billion in October, influenced by a recent government shutdown and record tariff revenues [6] Specific Commodity Insights - Peanuts are expected to maintain stable prices with limited room for significant upward or downward adjustments, focusing on supply dynamics from Henan province [10][11] - The apple market is characterized by low inventory levels, providing price support, but faces pressure from seasonal fruit supply [11] - The pig market shows a slight rebound, but supply remains ample, leading to limited price recovery potential [12] - Coking coal and coke futures experienced declines, with supply remaining marginally loose but limited by production safety issues [13] - Silver futures rose by 1.79%, influenced by U.S. PPI data indicating inflationary pressures [14] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 1.45%, but demand is expected to weaken seasonally [14] - Polysilicon futures rose by 2.93%, with production expected to stabilize [15] - Methanol futures saw a rise of 1.82%, supported by overseas production cuts [16] - Glass futures increased by 1.87%, driven by production cuts amid profit compression [17] - Fuel oil futures fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuating demand and geopolitical factors [18] - Asphalt futures declined by 1.02%, reflecting weak demand due to seasonal construction slowdowns [19] - The European shipping index saw a significant drop of 7.62%, with mixed trends in shipping rates impacting market sentiment [20]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in fuel futures by over 3.3%, while crude oil futures dropped by more than 2% on November 19 [1] Group 1 - Fuel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by more than 3.3% [1] - Crude oil futures experienced a decline exceeding 2% [1]

Group 1: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with fuel oil down 2.71% and crude oil down 0.69% for the week [1] - OPEC+ maintained a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, while announcing a pause in production increases for Q1 2026 to alleviate seasonal inventory buildup [2] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, contributing to supply pressure [2] Group 2: Black Metal Sector - Iron ore prices increased by 1.58% for the week, while coking coal and coke prices decreased by 6.14% and 1.15%, respectively [1] - Domestic steel demand is weakening, while overseas steel demand remains strong, leading to a shift in iron ore fundamentals [10] Group 3: Basic Metals Sector - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 6.15% for the week, driven by increased supply and demand, with a closing price of 87,360 yuan per ton, marking a three-month high [4] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase month-on-month, but the operating rate was only 43% [4][5] Group 4: Agricultural Products Sector - The egg market saw a decline of 5.78% for the week, while live pig prices increased by 0.89% [1] - The market is currently observing consumer demand trends and the potential for inventory reduction in the live pig sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market opened with mixed results, with agricultural products leading the gains, while energy and precious metals experienced declines [1] Group 1: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed significant gains, with apples rising by 1.34% [1] - Soybeans also saw an increase, with soybean one up by 1.19% [1] Group 2: Chemical Products - Most chemical products experienced an upward trend, highlighted by a 1.32% increase in styrene [1] Group 3: Black Metals - The black metal sector displayed mixed performance, with iron ore increasing by 0.52% [1] Group 4: New Energy Materials - New energy materials faced notable declines, particularly lithium carbonate, which fell by 1.27% [1] Group 5: Basic Metals - The majority of basic metals saw a downturn, with tin on the Shanghai market dropping by 1.15% [1] Group 6: Shipping Futures - All shipping futures declined, with the European shipping index falling by 0.88% [1] Group 7: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Non-metallic building materials exhibited mixed results, with glass prices decreasing by 0.76% [1] Group 8: Energy Products - Most energy products experienced declines, with fuel oil dropping by 0.54% [1] Group 9: Precious Metals - Precious metals faced a downward trend, with Shanghai gold decreasing by 0.12% [1]

Group 1 - The overall oilseed market in China is experiencing a situation of ample supply and slow inventory reduction, with high soybean stocks at ports and increasing operating rates at oil mills [1] - The accumulation of soybean meal inventory is notable, while the volume of unfulfilled contracts from downstream has significantly decreased, leading to a cautious purchasing sentiment in the market [1] - Total oil inventory continues to rise, with soybean oil and palm oil being the main contributors to the increase, while canola oil inventory has slightly decreased [1] Group 2 - On October 29, domestic futures saw more increases than decreases, with the European shipping index rising over 5%, coking coal up over 3%, and the CSI 500 and eggs rising over 2% [2] - In contrast, canola and canola oil fell over 2%, while palm oil and fuel oil dropped over 1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance in the night session, with some commodities experiencing gains while others faced declines [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal rose by over 1% [1] - Soybean meal, coking coal, and caustic soda saw slight increases [1] - Crude oil fell by over 1%, with fuel oil and paraxylene also experiencing minor declines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].