Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in fuel futures by over 3.3%, while crude oil futures dropped by more than 2% on November 19 [1] Group 1 - Fuel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by more than 3.3% [1] - Crude oil futures experienced a decline exceeding 2% [1]

Group 1: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with fuel oil down 2.71% and crude oil down 0.69% for the week [1] - OPEC+ maintained a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, while announcing a pause in production increases for Q1 2026 to alleviate seasonal inventory buildup [2] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, contributing to supply pressure [2] Group 2: Black Metal Sector - Iron ore prices increased by 1.58% for the week, while coking coal and coke prices decreased by 6.14% and 1.15%, respectively [1] - Domestic steel demand is weakening, while overseas steel demand remains strong, leading to a shift in iron ore fundamentals [10] Group 3: Basic Metals Sector - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 6.15% for the week, driven by increased supply and demand, with a closing price of 87,360 yuan per ton, marking a three-month high [4] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase month-on-month, but the operating rate was only 43% [4][5] Group 4: Agricultural Products Sector - The egg market saw a decline of 5.78% for the week, while live pig prices increased by 0.89% [1] - The market is currently observing consumer demand trends and the potential for inventory reduction in the live pig sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market opened with mixed results, with agricultural products leading the gains, while energy and precious metals experienced declines [1] Group 1: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed significant gains, with apples rising by 1.34% [1] - Soybeans also saw an increase, with soybean one up by 1.19% [1] Group 2: Chemical Products - Most chemical products experienced an upward trend, highlighted by a 1.32% increase in styrene [1] Group 3: Black Metals - The black metal sector displayed mixed performance, with iron ore increasing by 0.52% [1] Group 4: New Energy Materials - New energy materials faced notable declines, particularly lithium carbonate, which fell by 1.27% [1] Group 5: Basic Metals - The majority of basic metals saw a downturn, with tin on the Shanghai market dropping by 1.15% [1] Group 6: Shipping Futures - All shipping futures declined, with the European shipping index falling by 0.88% [1] Group 7: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Non-metallic building materials exhibited mixed results, with glass prices decreasing by 0.76% [1] Group 8: Energy Products - Most energy products experienced declines, with fuel oil dropping by 0.54% [1] Group 9: Precious Metals - Precious metals faced a downward trend, with Shanghai gold decreasing by 0.12% [1]

Group 1 - The overall oilseed market in China is experiencing a situation of ample supply and slow inventory reduction, with high soybean stocks at ports and increasing operating rates at oil mills [1] - The accumulation of soybean meal inventory is notable, while the volume of unfulfilled contracts from downstream has significantly decreased, leading to a cautious purchasing sentiment in the market [1] - Total oil inventory continues to rise, with soybean oil and palm oil being the main contributors to the increase, while canola oil inventory has slightly decreased [1] Group 2 - On October 29, domestic futures saw more increases than decreases, with the European shipping index rising over 5%, coking coal up over 3%, and the CSI 500 and eggs rising over 2% [2] - In contrast, canola and canola oil fell over 2%, while palm oil and fuel oil dropped over 1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance in the night session, with some commodities experiencing gains while others faced declines [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal rose by over 1% [1] - Soybean meal, coking coal, and caustic soda saw slight increases [1] - Crude oil fell by over 1%, with fuel oil and paraxylene also experiencing minor declines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Group 1 - The majority of domestic commodity futures closed lower on September 17, with significant declines in various contracts [2] - The main contract for container shipping on the European route fell nearly 7%, while soybean meal and polysilicon dropped over 2% [2] - Other commodities such as alumina, Shanghai silver, and soybean No. 2 also experienced declines close to 2%, with live pigs and soybean meal dropping over 1% [2] Group 2 - In contrast, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) increased by nearly 2%, while SC crude oil and fuel oil rose by over 1% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that domestic futures night trading saw significant increases, with low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and crude oil futures rising over 1% [1] Group 2 - The specific increase in low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and crude oil futures indicates a positive trend in the commodities market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures main contracts opened with mixed results during the night session, with coking coal rising over 2% [1] - Crude oil increased by more than 1%, while fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil saw slight gains [1] - Methanol and caustic soda experienced minor declines [1]