Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September was released after a one-month delay, showing data that exceeded market expectations, indicating reduced urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3] - The report revealed an increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the Dow Jones expectation of 50,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year [5] Group 2 - The labor market data release followed a record 44-day government shutdown, which prevented the collection and publication of labor statistics [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were reported at 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week, below the market consensus of 227,000 [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings in December will assess overall employment conditions, with the October and November employment reports to be released simultaneously on December 9 [7] - There is a strong division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members supporting a cut while others prefer to maintain rates stable through 2025 [8][9] - Concerns about core inflation remaining high were noted, with some members indicating that tariffs are pushing up prices, counteracting declines in housing service prices [9][10]

Core Insights - India's consumer inflation rate for October is projected to drop to a historical low of 0.4% year-on-year, down from 1.54% in September according to a survey of nine economists by The Wall Street Journal [1] - High-frequency data indicates a continued contraction in vegetable prices, coupled with a favorable base effect, which may lead to a decrease in food inflation on a month-on-month basis [1] - The core inflation rate may also decline due to the transmission effects from the reduction in the goods and services tax [1] Economic Analysis - The significant drop in consumer inflation reflects a broader trend of decreasing food prices, particularly in vegetables, which is expected to influence overall inflation metrics [1] - The potential for a rise in inflation in the coming months is noted, as the majority of the decline in food prices appears to have already been realized, suggesting that base effects could push inflation higher [1]

Group 1 - The inflation rate in the Philippines for October is reported at 1.7%, remaining unchanged from September [1] - The average inflation rate for the first ten months of the year is also 1.7%, which is below the government's annual target range of 2% to 4% [1] - The main contributors to inflation include an increase in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel prices, which rose from 2.1% in September to 2.7% in October [1] Group 2 - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices saw a decrease in their year-on-year growth rate, dropping from 1.0% in September to 0.5% in October, which helped mitigate some inflationary pressures [1] - The food inflation rate for October is recorded at 0.3%, down from 0.8% in September and significantly lower than the 3.0% from the same period last year [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, is at 2.5%, slightly lower than September's 2.6% but marginally higher than last year's 2.4% [1] Group 3 - The Central Bank of the Philippines indicates that the overall inflation outlook is limited due to stabilizing global commodity prices [2] - However, the Central Bank also notes a weakening of business confidence due to a corruption scandal related to flood control projects, which has led to a deteriorating economic growth outlook [2] - The Central Bank plans to reassess the effectiveness of previous monetary policy measures in light of changing economic conditions and their impact on inflation [2]

Market Overview - The New York stock market experienced a broad rally on the 27th, with all three major indices rising due to easing international trade tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose approximately 1.59% on the same day [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.71%, closing at 47,544.59 points [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.23%, closing at 6,875.16 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a rise of 1.86%, closing at 23,637.46 points [1] Sector Performance - Among the eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index, nine sectors saw gains while two sectors declined [1] - The Communication Services and Technology sectors led the gains with increases of 2.30% and 2.02%, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for September decreased from 3.1% in August to 3%, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market expectations indicate a greater than 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting on the 29th [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with the Senate rejecting temporary funding resolutions, indicating a persistent political deadlock [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is highly anticipated, but it may not provide the necessary insights for investors due to the absence of official economic data during the shutdown [2] - Market expectations suggest that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a muted response, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since August 2022, reflecting expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The ten-year Treasury yield has also fallen below 4%, reaching its lowest closing level in over a year, indicating a consistent bearish outlook among investors regarding future economic conditions [2] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the sharp slowdown in job growth, which, despite being offset by a contraction in labor supply, remains a troubling trend [3] Group 3 - The current spot gold price is trading above $4106, with a slight increase of 0.30%, and has shown a range between a high of $4136.89 and a low of $4064.51 [1] - The structural bullish outlook for spot gold remains intact, supported by trading above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $3613.62 [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) is above the midpoint and not in the overbought zone, reinforcing upward momentum for gold prices [5]

Core Insights - The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 2.2% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous three months, slightly exceeding the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term inflation target of 2.0% [1] Inflation Data - Service sector inflation rose from 3.1% in August to 3.2% in September [1] - Energy prices saw a significant narrowing in the year-on-year decline, dropping only 0.4% in September compared to a 2.0% decline in August [1] - The price increase for food, alcohol, and tobacco slowed to 3.0%, down from 3.2% previously, with unprocessed food inflation weakening further [1] - Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained stable at 0.8% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, increased to 2.4%, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 2.3% and reversing the over three-year low of 2.3% recorded in August, indicating persistent underlying price pressures in the Eurozone [1] ECB Commentary - ECB Governing Council member Simkus expressed support for a "risk management-style rate cut," noting that current inflation and economic growth risks are "more tilted to the downside" [1] - Simkus emphasized that the price forecast for 2028 is crucial for the ECB's next steps [1] - He also mentioned the possibility of further appreciation of the euro [1]

Core Insights - Bank Pekao has revised Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 4.0% to 3.6% while increasing the 2026 forecast from 3.7% to 4.0% [1] - Economists predict that economic growth will accelerate in the third quarter of 2025, with an expected year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [1] - The likelihood of achieving an average growth rate of 4% this year is considered low [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is expected to remain near the inflation target for an extended period, projected to stay below 3% year-on-year by the end of 2025 [1] - Core inflation, although on a downward trend, is anticipated to remain at a high level due to ongoing cost pressures in the service sector [1] Interest Rates - The report forecasts a further decrease in interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026, targeting a rate of 3.5% [1]

Core Insights - Spain's inflation rate reached 3% in September, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest level since February of this year [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy and fresh food, remained stable at 2.4% compared to the previous month [1] Inflation Drivers - The rise in fuel and electricity prices was identified as the primary reason for the increase in the inflation rate in Spain for September [1]

Core Insights - Germany's inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, the highest level of the year, influenced by increased service prices and a slowdown in the decline of energy prices [1][1][1] Inflation Data - Food prices in Germany increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, while energy prices decreased by 0.7% [1][1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, was recorded at 2.8% for the month [1][1] - Service prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, surpassing the previous two months' rate of 3.1% [1][1] Economic Commentary - The head of the Federal Statistical Office noted that after a continuous decline since the beginning of the year, the inflation rate has risen for the second consecutive month [1][1] - The Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy indicated that the service sector remains the primary driver of price increases in Germany, with expectations that the inflation rate will remain slightly above 2% by the end of the year [1][1][1] Eurozone Context - The Eurozone's inflation rate for September was reported at 2.2%, up from 2% in August, remaining above the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1][1]

Core Insights - Germany's inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, the highest level of the year, influenced by an increase in service prices and a slowdown in the decline of energy prices [1][1][1] Inflation Data - Food prices in Germany increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, while energy prices decreased by 0.7% [1][1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, was recorded at 2.8% for the month [1][1] - Service prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, surpassing the previous two months' rate of 3.1% [1][1] Economic Commentary - The head of the German Federal Statistical Office noted that after a continuous decline since the beginning of the year, the inflation rate has risen for the second consecutive month [1][1] - The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy indicated that the service sector remains the primary driver of rising prices, with expectations that the inflation rate will remain slightly above 2% by the end of the year [1][1][1] Eurozone Context - The Eurozone's inflation rate for September was reported at 2.2%, an increase from 2% in August, remaining above the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1][1]