Core Viewpoint - The January supply and demand report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board indicates a decrease in palm oil production, but the market response has been negative despite favorable export figures and inventory reductions [2][16]. Production and Supply - In January, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 13.78% month-on-month to 1.5774 million tons, slightly above the average decline of 13.12% for the same period in previous years [2][16]. - The production decline was primarily due to seasonal weather patterns, with the highest reductions occurring in Sarawak at 33.15% [2][16]. - Despite the production decrease, January's total output remains higher than the same period since 2015, indicating that there is no significant reduction in overall production levels [2][16]. Exports and Consumption - Palm oil exports in January reached 1.4843 million tons, an increase of 11.44% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations [5][16]. - The apparent consumption of palm oil in January was 361,000 tons, higher than 331,000 tons in the same month of 2025, indicating strong domestic demand supported by exports of biodiesel and waste oils [5][17]. - India imported 766,000 tons of palm oil in January, the highest since September 2025, as preparations for the upcoming Ramadan increased demand [5][6]. Inventory Levels - By the end of January, palm oil inventory decreased by 7.72% to 2.8155 million tons, significantly lower than earlier estimates of 2.91 million tons [2][16]. - The inventory level is the second highest for the same period since 2015, suggesting that the reduction is more related to export demand rather than a significant drop in production [5][17]. Market Dynamics - Despite the favorable report, the market reacted negatively, likely due to the perception of high supply levels and potential declines in demand [5][17]. - The palm oil market is currently facing challenges with high inventory levels and limited upward price movement, as domestic consumption remains stable but not significantly increasing [12][22]. - The upcoming Ramadan period in India is expected to slow down palm oil purchases, which may limit further inventory reductions [9][19]. Price and Profitability - The price differential between palm oil and other oils, such as soybean and sunflower oil, remains significant, impacting import decisions in India [6][9]. - The domestic market is expected to maintain high inventory levels, with projections indicating inventories could reach 800,000 tons by the end of February [12][22]. - The palm oil market may see limited upward movement unless unexpected negative factors arise, such as geopolitical tensions or significant changes in oil prices [12][22].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the first decline in inventory after ten consecutive months of increase, with a larger-than-expected reduction in inventory, raising market interest in the timing and extent of this year's inventory turning point [3][17]. Supply Side - In January, production decreased by 13.8% to 1.577 million tons, aligning with seasonal reduction patterns, and remains relatively high compared to historical data, only surpassed by 2019, 2018, and 2013 [4][19]. - The labor force increased by approximately 0.8 thousand to 288 thousand in December, indicating no immediate labor shortages [20]. - Weather conditions are typical for the rainy season, with significant rainfall recorded, but localized variations exist, suggesting no immediate concerns regarding dry conditions [20]. Demand Side - Exports increased by 11.4% to 1.484 million tons in January, exceeding market expectations, although not as high as some shipping companies' forecasts [8][27]. - Domestic consumption rose to 361 thousand tons, moving out of the previous range of 280-320 thousand tons, contributing to the unexpected decline in inventory [8][27]. Summary - Inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.815 million tons, marking the first decline after ten months of increases, with the current level still considered high historically [11][31]. - The combination of unexpected production levels, favorable export conditions, and rising domestic consumption led to a significant drop in inventory, which was below market expectations [11][31]. - February is expected to see a further decline in inventory, supported by export demand, although high previous inventory levels may limit short-term selling pressure [11][31].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming MPOB supply and demand report is expected to show a significant decrease in palm oil production and inventory, ending a 10-month growth trend, with production estimated to drop by 12% to 1.61 million tons and exports to increase by 7.5% to 1.42 million tons, leading to a 4.64% decline in inventory to 2.91 million tons [3][10]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Expectations - The market anticipates a seasonal decline in palm oil production combined with increased exports, which is likely to result in a decrease in inventory [3][10]. - January palm oil production is projected to be 1.61 million tons, down from 1.83 million tons in December 2025, while exports are expected to rise to 1.42 million tons from 1.32 million tons [4][11]. - The inventory is forecasted to decrease to 2.91 million tons from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 [4][11]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - Short-term market fluctuations post-report will depend on the actual data versus expectations; lower-than-expected inventory could provide support, while higher-than-expected inventory may create pressure [5][11]. - The speed of production and inventory reduction will be crucial for medium to long-term market dynamics, especially in comparison to historical data [5][11]. - The palm oil industry is currently facing significant inventory pressure, necessitating continuous or even above-seasonal inventory reduction to alleviate this pressure before production increases seasonally in March [6][11].

Core Insights - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the December 2025 palm oil supply and demand data, indicating a month-on-month decline in production but remaining at historically high levels. The report showed slightly higher-than-expected ending stocks, leading to a bearish market impact. However, following the report, palm oil prices rebounded as market negativity was priced in, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in January 2026 [2][17]. Production Data - December 2025 palm oil production was 1.8298 million tons, down 5.46% month-on-month but up 23.07% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 1.76 million tons. The production remains significantly above the five-year average [4][19]. - The production decline was uneven across regions: Peninsular Malaysia saw a 13.61% decrease to 900,400 tons, while production in Sabah remained stable, and Sarawak experienced a 5.35% decline [4][19]. Export and Consumption - December 2025 palm oil exports increased to 1.3165 million tons, up 8.52% month-on-month, surpassing market estimates but still below the five-year average. Cumulatively, exports for 2025 totaled 15.26 million tons, a decline of 9.27% year-on-year [8][23]. - Domestic consumption fell to 331,400 tons, down 20.89% month-on-month, indicating limited domestic demand [17][23]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of December, palm oil stocks rose to 3.0506 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month and a 78.53% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in five years. This was above market expectations of 2.97 to 3.01 million tons [9][24]. - The high inventory levels are attributed to sustained high production, contributing to ongoing supply pressure in the market [9][24]. Price Outlook - Despite high inventory levels, the market is expected to see a gradual improvement in palm oil prices due to a potential decrease in stocks in January 2026, driven by reduced production and a recovery in exports. The forecast for January 2026 domestic palm oil prices is between 8,650 and 8,900 CNY per ton, with an average expected price of 8,790 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.69% [12][27].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8866.00 yuan and currently trading at 8772.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.32% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures indicates that palm oil continues its oscillating strong trend, supported by a decrease in production and an increase in exports as reported in the MPOB December report, which noted a month-end inventory of 3.05 million tons [2]. - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures anticipates a short-term strengthening of palm oil prices, citing macroeconomic factors such as the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have contributed to rising oil prices [3]. - Hualian Futures expects domestic oilseeds to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with signs of improvement in palm oil exports in January and potential favorable developments regarding Canadian canola tariffs [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - The MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory for December was 3.05 million tons, slightly above expectations, but the market has absorbed this bearish news [3]. - High-frequency data shows a reduction in Malaysian palm oil production and an increase in demand in early January, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil prices declined this week due to the MPOB data showing an unexpected inventory build - up in November, an expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to high - frequency data from palm oil producing areas, import demand changes in major consuming regions, and relevant national biodiesel policies [8][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **BMD Malaysian Palm Oil**: As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The November production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while exports dropped by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons. The production in the first 10 days of December is expected to increase by 6.87% month - on - month, and exports are predicted to decrease [8]. - **DCE Palm Oil**: The main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. Spot prices from foreign suppliers declined, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream trading [11]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather - **Malaysian Producing Area Weather**: From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, except for some parts. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation above or at the historical normal level, except for Sabah [14][16]. - **Indonesian Producing Area Weather**: From December 6 - 12, different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan had varying precipitation levels compared to the historical normal. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in major palm oil - producing areas in Indonesia is expected to be above or at the historical normal level [19][21]. 3.3 International Supply and Demand - **MPOB November Report**: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in November increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports dropped by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. - **December Forecast for Malaysian Palm Oil**: - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data shows a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data shows a 15% decrease. Exports to different regions and for different palm oil products also changed [30][31]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data indicates that from December 1 - 10, the yield per unit area increased by 7.24%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.07%, and production increased by 6.87% compared to the same period last month [32]. - **Other Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. The USDA estimates global 2025/26 palm oil production at 80.016 million tons, with a downward revision of 800,000 tons from last month [34]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: The inversion of the palm oil import profit for January - March 2026 shipments widened this week [35]. - **Palm Oil Transactions**: The weekly palm oil trading volume increased to 1,600 tons as of December 12, up 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 683,700 tons, up 4.62% from last week and 32.32% from the same period last year [40][41]. 3.5 Domestic and International Futures, Spot Prices, and Price Spreads of Oils - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread**: There are various data and charts showing the basis, monthly spread, and variety spread of palm oil, such as the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil, and the spreads between different oil varieties [43][49]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: There are data and charts presenting the palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and the open interest of the 05 contract [55]. - **FOB Quotes**: There are charts showing the FOB quotes of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil declined this week. The decline of BMD Malaysian palm oil was mainly affected by factors such as the unexpected inventory build - up in November, the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. The decline of DCE palm oil was influenced by the above - mentioned factors and the decrease in import costs [8][11]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise slightly by the end of December. There is a risk that the inventory may approach or slightly exceed 3 million tons if export weakness persists or demand recovery is slower than normal [34]. - Global palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports in the 2025/26 period are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The price decline was due to factors like the unexpected inventory build - up in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. In November, production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while SPPOMA data showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December. Exports in November decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and exports in the first 10 days of December are expected to decline [8]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - This week, the main contract of DCE palm oil switched to the 2605 contract. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. The price decline was affected by the unexpected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the decrease in import costs. Spot prices also decreased, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream transactions [11]. 2. Production Area Weather 2.1 Malaysian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, with some areas having 15 - 100mm higher or lower. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation at or above the historical normal level, except for the Sabah region [14][16]. 2.2 Indonesian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, precipitation in different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan was either above or below the historical normal level. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in the main palm - oil producing areas of Indonesia is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level [19][21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB November Report - In November, Malaysian palm oil's ending inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil December Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data showed a 15% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data indicated a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December, with a 7.24% increase in FFB yield and a 0.07% decrease in oil extraction rate [32]. 3.3 Other Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. Inventory is expected to rise slightly by the end of December, and there is a risk of inventory approaching or exceeding 3 million tons. Global 2025/26 palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the import profit of palm oil for January - March 2026 shipments showed a wider negative spread [35]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of December 12, the weekly transaction volume was 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - As of December 5, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 4.62% increase from last week and a 32.32% increase from the same period last year [40][41]. 5. Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads of Oils 5.1 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report presents the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil [44][48]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: The report shows the international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil spread [50][54]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - The report provides the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the positions of the 05 contract [56]. 5.3 FOB Quotations - The report shows the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [59].

Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Continued to Build Inventory in October, Focus on High-Frequency Data from Producing Areas 20251117" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand both increased in October, with the ending inventory reaching 2464000 tons, and the current inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to high-frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand from major consuming areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [7]. - The price of BMD Malaysia palm oil rose this week, mainly driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance of Malaysia palm oil in the first 10 days of November limited the increase in the futures price [7]. - The price of DCE palm oil fluctuated slightly lower this week, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory during the week, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysia Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the BMD Malaysia palm oil 01 contract closed at 4125 ringgit/ton, up 0.36% from last week. The price increase was driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance in the first 10 days of November limited the increase [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, higher than the 5-year average. The SPPOMA estimated that the production in the first 10 days of November decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, far exceeding market expectations. However, high-frequency data from three major institutions showed that the exports in the first 10 days of November were expected to decrease by 9.5% - 49.53% month-on-month [7]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week. The price fluctuated slightly lower, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. - This week, the foreign quotation decreased, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed, and the inversion range of the futures soybean-palm oil price spread continued to repair [12]. 2. Producing Area Weather 2.1 Malaysia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of southern Peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sarawak, and southwestern Sabah where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 75mm [14]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [16]. 2.2 Indonesia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra where precipitation was 15 - 100mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm. In Kalimantan, except for a small part of western and northern areas where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [19]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of central and western Sumatra where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB October Report - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in October increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2464000 tons, higher than the same period last year and the 5-year average [23]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, and imports decreased by 53.73% month-on-month to 36000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448328 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the same period last month; ITS data showed that exports were 459320 tons, a 12.28% decrease; SGS data showed that exports were expected to be 190533 tons, a 49.53% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [34]. 3.3 Other Important News - India's palm oil imports in October were 602381 tons, lower than 833017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [36]. - Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend fuel (B50) containing 50% palm oil. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 blend fuel in the second half of next year [36]. - Indonesia will start the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific fields. The government plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, an increase from this year's 40% blending ratio [38]. - Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September this year was more than 43 million tons, a 11% year-on-year increase; exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year-on-year increase [38]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [38]. - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month-on-month decrease in exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month-on-month to 2.57 million tons in November; production is expected to decrease by 8.0% month-on-month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [38]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed [39]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions decreased. As of the week of November 14, the total weekly palm oil transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) were 3403 tons, a decrease of 2597 tons from last week, a decline of 43% [42]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Palm oil inventory increased. As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from last week and a 10.86% increase from 538800 tons in the same period last year [44][45]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Month Spread**: Relevant data charts of palm oil basis and month spread in different regions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [48][51][52]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant data charts of international and domestic soybean-palm oil, rapeseed-palm oil, sunflower-palm oil price spreads, and POGO spreads are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [54][56][57]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - Relevant data charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract positions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [59]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Relevant data charts of Malaysia and Indonesia's 24-degree palm oil FOB quotes are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [62]

Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 8698.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 8850.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.50% [1] - The MPOB report for October indicates that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month, exports rose by 18.58%, and inventory grew by 4.4%, slightly above market expectations, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Current market sentiment is mixed, with some analysts noting that while there is a seasonal trend of inventory reduction, the palm oil market is entering a production cut cycle, leading to a cautious outlook on price stability [1][2] Group 2 - The analysis from Guotou Anxin Futures highlights that despite a decrease in palm oil prices, the significant increase in supply has led to a rise in inventory levels, maintaining a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - High-frequency data for early November shows that Malaysian palm oil production continues to grow, while export demand has declined, indicating ongoing pressure on prices due to high inventory levels [2] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with prices expected to remain in a sideways trend until clearer supply-demand signals emerge [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The July supply and demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is bullish, leading to a rise in palm oil prices [1][9] - The report shows that palm oil exports were 1,309,059 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; production was 1,812,417 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; imports were 61,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.82%; and inventory was 2,113,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [9] - The production volume and increase were lower than the forecasts of Bloomberg and Reuters, while the export increase was higher than their forecasts, causing the domestic Dalian palm oil 2601 contract to rise rapidly after the opening, with a gain of over 1.88% at the time of reporting [9] Group 2: Forecast and Actual Data Comparison - Reuters expected production to be 183 (an 8% increase), imports to be 6 (a 14.3% decrease), exports to be 130 (a 3.2% increase), and the ending inventory to be 225 (a 10.8% increase) [2] - Bloomberg expected production to be 183 (an 8% increase), imports to be 5 (a 28.6% decrease), exports to be 130 (a 3.2% increase), and the ending inventory to be 223 (a 9.9% increase) [2] - The actual data in July 2025 showed production of 181 (a 7.09% increase), imports of 6.1 (a 12.82% decrease), exports of 131 (a 3.82% increase), and ending inventory of 211 (a 4.02% increase) [2] Group 3: Palm Oil 2601 Contract Data - The latest price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9208, with a gain of 2.02% [7] - The total volume was 230,717, and the open interest was 287,073 [7] - The target volume was 27,615, and the settlement price was 0 [7] - The ratio of the outer market was 51.6%, and the inner market was 111,656 [7] - The FFA ratio was 48.4%, the daily limit up was 9656, and the daily limit down was 8396 [7]