1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - side support for rubber remains. The news of state reserve sales has narrowed the price difference between RU and NR, suppressing futures prices in the short term. Before the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas may support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories is over, and with a slight increase in domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires is in a seasonal peak, with an increase in tire factory operating rates and continuous raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited. For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply, and although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] - Production and Sales of Automobiles: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] - Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [3] - Rubber Exports in Cote d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3230 yuan/ton (+ 55.38), the NR basis was 869.00 yuan/ton (+ 43.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 30), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (- 30) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the price difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.75) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 20), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1580 yuan/ton (- 41) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6] 3. Strategy - For RU and NR, due to the narrowing of the price difference caused by the news of state reserve sales and the short - term suppression of futures prices, the cost - side support may limit the decline of rubber prices. After the end of the concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories and with a slight increase in arrivals, the inventory reduction will slow down. Although the demand is in a peak season, after the purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply. Although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, before the end of September, rainfall in the main producing areas may still cause disruptions, supporting the cost of rubber and limiting the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated restocking of downstream tire factories may be over, and with the slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires has entered the seasonal peak season, the recent tire factory operating rate has rebounded, and the rigid consumption of raw materials continues, so the supply - demand contradiction is still not significant. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, the rubber price is expected to weaken, but the overall decline space will be limited [6] - For BR, recently, the overhauled devices will be restarted one after another, and it is expected that the upstream operating rate will rise again, and the supply of BR will increase month - on - month. The demand side currently shows peak - season characteristics, and the tire factory operating rate has rebounded to the normal level. However, after the concentrated restocking of tire factories ends, the raw material demand has declined. The supply - demand situation shows signs of loosening month - on - month. Recently, there are concerns about cost - side drag on BR. Mainly, the weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of butadiene prices. At the same time, the recent inventory of butadiene is at a moderately high level, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking ends. It is expected that BR will show a weak pattern, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the lower price limit of BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,465 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,520 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] Export - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] Production and Sales of Vehicles - In the first eight months of 2025, the export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. Looking at the August data alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month slight decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 740 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,285 yuan/ton (+ 202.68), the NR basis was 826.00 yuan/ton (+ 182.00); the whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton (+ 100), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 35), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [4] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the BR basis was 80 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,559 yuan/ton (- 1) [5] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.72% (- 3.76%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber (RU and NR), until the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas will continue to support rubber costs, limiting the downside of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories may be over, and with a slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. Tire demand is in a seasonal peak, with recent increases in tire factory operating rates and ongoing raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited [7] - For cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber (BR), recently shut - down plants will gradually restart, increasing the supply. The demand side shows peak - season characteristics, but raw material demand has declined after the concentrated replenishment of tire factories. Supply - demand is becoming more relaxed. There are concerns about cost drag, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices and high inventories of butadiene. BR prices are expected to weaken, but the large price difference with natural rubber will still support the downside [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,395 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [2] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information Import and Export of Rubber and Tires - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [3] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [3] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Automobile Production, Sales and Export - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4] Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 775 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 745 yuan/ton (-20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,556 yuan/ton (-136.43), the NR basis was 644.00 yuan/ton (+21.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (-70), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,680 yuan/ton (-70) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.73 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.85 Thai baht/kg (-0.60) [5] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+0.13%) [6] - The operating rate of high - cis cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber was 69.72% (-3.76%) [6] Inventories - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (-1,411) [6] - The inventory of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber held by traders was 7,820 tons (-390), and the inventory held by enterprises was 25,900 tons (-400) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 30 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private - owned cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,514 yuan/ton (+214) [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][12][22] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 from the same period last month; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 from the same period last month; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 from the same period last month; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25 [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Spread Metrics**: The butadiene basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 from the same period last month; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, down 60 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the 9 - 10 month spread was 90, down 40 from the previous day and up 120 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the spot processing profit was - 238; the on - screen processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the export profit was 111, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The CFR China price was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 from the same period last month; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - **Profit Metrics**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 882, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 from the same period last month; the ABS production profit was N/A [3][13][23]. Variety Spreads - **Spread Metrics**: The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,100, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the RU - BR spread was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was - 57,881, down 51,806 from the same period last month [3][13][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - The Fed's rate cut is in line with expectations, leading to an adjustment in commodities and relatively weak rubber prices this week. In the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas production areas, mainly Thailand, are still affected by rainfall. It is expected that overseas raw material prices will remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber may still be strong. The domestic arrival volume has slightly recovered, but the recent concentrated purchasing by downstream has led to a continuous decline in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire operating rate has rebounded again, and the overall downstream demand shows a pattern of seasonal improvement. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, it is expected that there will still be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise. For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices, which may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices. At the same time, the butadiene inventory has gradually increased recently, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking is completed. The fundamentals of BR itself still show a good pattern, and there are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, with increased purchasing by tire factories, and the operating rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the BR price [6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with 616,000 tons in the same period of 2024. From January to August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 5.373 million tons, an increase of 19% compared with 4.514 million tons in the same period of 2024. - Export: According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and an increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 820 yuan/ton (- 60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,576 yuan/ton (- 140.37), the NR basis was 709.00 yuan/ton (+ 91.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (- 200); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,650 yuan/ton (- 50). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai rubber latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.60), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the BR basis was 35 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,710 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.72% (- 3.76%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. For BR, also maintain a neutral view [6]

化工日报 | 2025-09-18 天然橡胶社会库存继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15880元/吨，较前一日变动-160元/吨；NR主力合约12590元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约11590元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15100元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1780 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年8月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计66.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.6万吨增加7.8%。1-8月，中国进 口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计537.3万吨，较2024年同期的451.4万吨增加19%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计105万吨，较2024年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight decline. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the upcoming traditional peak season [8] - For BR, production is expected to decline in September, but downstream demand is likely to pick up during the traditional peak season, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and the cost - side support still exists [8] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,960 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,735 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,810 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,845 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Global Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - ANRPC's July 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in July would slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, while the cumulative consumption would decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] China's Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales in China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, up about 13% year - on - year [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; the export of latex was 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year. From January to July, Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year. The export of standard rubber to China was 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; the export of latex to China was 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheet rubber, rubber in primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 474,800 tons, up 2.47% month - on - month and down 1.91% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, up 21.82% year - on - year [3] Cote d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, up 14.3% compared with the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] China's Rubber Tire Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's exports of rubber tires reached 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (- 25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,293 yuan/ton (+ 54.64), the NR basis was 403.00 yuan/ton (+ 34.00); the price of whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,845 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,400 yuan/ton (+ 20) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55) [5][6] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (- 3,908), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (+ 170), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (+ 805) [7] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,343 yuan/ton (+ 16) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [7] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,650 tons (- 450) [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]

化工日报 | 2025-09-02 青岛港口库存继续小幅去化 市场要闻与数据 1-7月，泰国出口到中国天然橡胶合计为62.2万吨，同比增7%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为39.8万吨，同比降15%； 烟片胶出口到中国合计为6.5万吨，同比大增306%；乳胶出口到中国合计为15.7万吨，同比增65%。 2025年7月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量47.48万吨，环比增加 2.47%，同比减少1.91%，2025年1-7月累计进口数量360.05万吨，累计同比增加21.82%。 2025年前7个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计908,487吨，较2024年同期的794,831吨增加14.3%。 单看7月数据，出口 量同比增加28.3%，环比增加28.5%。 2025年前7个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达563万吨，同比增长5.4%；出口金额为992亿元，同比增长5.4%。1-7月汽车 轮胎出口量为480万吨，同比增长4.9%；出口金额为819亿元，同比增长4.9%。 市场分析 天然橡胶： 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15860元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨；NR主力合约12680元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is affected by continuous disturbances in the weather of the producing areas, with strong cost support. The inventory in the middle reaches has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated slightly. The sentiment in the commodity market is weak, so it may maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply in domestic, Thai, and Vietnamese producing areas is tight due to weather disturbances, driving up raw material prices [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next period [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [3][102] - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR spread has slightly narrowed [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production profits of Thai standard rubber, Hainan concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber have all shown losses [3] - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still high [3] - **Commodity Market**: The overall atmosphere is bearish as it approaches the 09 - contract delivery, and the previous hype sentiment has cooled down [3] - **Investment View**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on BR and short on NR [3] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, natural rubber has maintained an oscillating performance. The supply is less than expected, the raw material price is high, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the market sentiment is weak [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have rebounded slightly [9] - **Position on the Disk**: The total position of NR has increased significantly [23] - **Spread on the Disk**: The RU1 - 9 spread has declined [31] Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Weather in Producing Areas**: Rainfall in the producing areas continues to cause disturbances [39] - **Output of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63] - **Export Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73] - **China's Import**: From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%). In July, the import volume increased slightly month - on - month [86][101] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [102] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has fluctuated slightly and is expected to decline slightly in the next period [118] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [124] - **Tire Exports**: From January to July, China's rubber tire exports were 5.34 million tons (+4.9%) [134] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber is in the red, while the production profit of Thai latex is stable [142]