Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed growth in Q3 revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2169.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 126.279 billion yuan, down 4.90% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 719.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.34% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.18%, with a net profit of 42.286 billion yuan, down 3.86% year-on-year but up 13.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Oil and Gas Operations - The company has proven oil reserves of 6.18 billion barrels and natural gas reserves of 728 trillion cubic feet as of 2024 [1]. - From January to September 2025, the average realized price of crude oil was $65.55 per barrel, a decrease of 14.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The company produced 714.3 million barrels of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and sold 3977.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2]. Chemical and New Materials Business - The company’s chemical products output reached 29.59 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with new materials production growing by 59.4% [2]. - The successful commissioning of the Jilin ethylene project and ongoing projects in Guangxi and Blue Ocean New Materials are expected to drive rapid growth in the chemical sector [3]. Sales Performance - The total sales of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel reached 120.876 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while natural gas sales were 218.541 billion cubic meters, up 4.2% year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 2.99% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 13.02 yuan based on a 14x PE for 2026, and a "buy" rating has been initiated [3].

事件 公司持续推进油气增储上产，2025Q3 产量增速提升，有效对冲油价压力。2025Q3公司油气总产量达 1.94 亿桶油当量，同比增加7.85%，其中原油产量达1.49 亿桶，同比增加7.12%；天然气产量达2613 亿 立方英尺，同比增加10.96%，能源结构优化与规模扩张同步，我们认为产量增量部分抵消油价下跌的 不利影响。2025Q3公司资本支出达284.34 亿元，同比减少11.7%，因在建项目工作量同比有所降低，但 仍处高位，保障业务推进。 新项目有序投产，油气产量高增速有望延续 公司重点产能建设项目加速推进，多个新项目顺利投产，2025 年7 月垦利10-2 油田群开发项目、东方1- 1 气田13-3 群开发项目投产，8 月圭亚那Yellowtail 项目投产，9 月文昌16-2 油田开发项目投产。其他新 项目正稳步推进中，有望维持公司油气产量持续保持高增速，公司高成长性有望得以延续。 盈利预测与评级 我们认为在原油价格维持中高位震荡的前提下，公司盈利确定性较强，我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母 净利润分别为1323 亿元/1360 亿元/1401 亿元，对应EPS为 2.78 元/2.8 ...

本报讯(记者向炎涛)10月30日，中国海洋石油有限公司(以下简称"中国海油（600938）")发布2025年三 季度经营业绩。前三季度，公司增储上产持续发力，国内外产量稳步增长，成本竞争优势持续巩固，盈 利能力保持韧性，实现油气销售收入2554.8亿元，归属于母公司股东的净利润1019.7亿元。 前三季度，公司油气净产量达578.3百万桶油当量，同比增长6.7%。中国净产量达400.8百万桶油当量， 同比上升8.6%，主要得益于深海一号二期和渤中19-2等油气田的产量贡献；海外净产量177.4百万桶油 当量，同比上升2.6%，主要得益于巴西Mero3等项目带来的产量贡献。第三季度，公司油气净产量达 193.7百万桶油当量，同比增长7.9%。 勘探方面，前三季度，公司共获得5个新发现，成功评价22个含油气构造。第三季度，成功评价垦利10- 6，持续扩大储量规模，有望成为中型油田；陵水17-2一体化滚动增储成效显著。开发生产方面，公司 前三季度共投产14个新项目，包括垦利10-2油田群开发项目(一期)、东方29-1气田开发项目、文昌19-1 油田开发项目和圭亚那Yellowtail项目等。 中国海油总裁阎洪涛表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil service industry continues to show strong performance in Q3, driven by increased investment from oil and gas companies and a favorable market environment due to stable international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - ShenKai Co. reported a revenue of 568 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%, and a net profit of 37.775 million yuan, up 86.46% [2]. - DeShi Co. achieved a net profit of 95.716 million yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a 50.13% year-on-year growth, with Q3 net profit reaching 50.549 million yuan, a 75.47% increase [2]. - JieRui Co. reported a revenue of 10.42 billion yuan, a 29.49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.808 billion yuan, up 13.11% [2]. - BeiKen Energy's revenue for the first three quarters was 747 million yuan, a 23.38% increase, with a net profit of 29.014 million yuan, up 19.21% [3]. - HaiYou Development reported a revenue of 33.947 billion yuan, a 0.81% increase, and a net profit of 2.853 billion yuan, up 6.11% [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The oil service industry is experiencing a positive outlook due to increased capital expenditures from upstream oil companies, leading to more business opportunities for oil service firms [2][3][5]. - Major contracts have been signed, such as HaiYou Engineering's contract with PTTEP worth approximately 800 million USD and China National Petroleum Engineering's contract in Iraq valued at 2.524 billion USD [4]. - Global oil giants, like Saudi Aramco, are planning significant investments in new projects, indicating a robust demand for oil service equipment and services [5]. - Domestic developments, such as the discovery of a new shale oil resource in the Sichuan Basin, further enhance the growth potential for the oil service sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading integrated oilfield service provider globally, with services spanning the entire offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production process [14]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for offshore oil and gas development in China, supported by the capital expenditure plans of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [2][43]. - The drilling service segment is experiencing an upward cycle, with high platform utilization rates and potential for daily rates to increase [2][21]. - The oilfield technology service segment is characterized by lower cyclicality and is expected to see steady revenue growth due to technological advancements [3][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in four main business segments: drilling services, oilfield technical services, marine services, and geophysical exploration services [14]. - It holds a dominant position in the nearshore drilling market in China and has extensive experience in offshore oilfield services [14][21]. Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to stabilize in the range of $60-65 per barrel, with OPEC+ maintaining a strong interest in supporting oil prices [2][43]. - The transition from land to offshore oil and gas exploration is driven by limited land resources and rising extraction costs [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 44,109 million yuan in 2023 to 62,957 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,013 million yuan in 2023 to 4,556 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 14.7% [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 18.6 and 20.0 times [3][4]. Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 13.62 and 14.60 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 0% to 4.06% compared to the current stock price of 14.03 yuan [5][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of around 7.6% in 2025, increasing to 8.9% by 2027 [4].

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully completed surface operations for six development wells in the Dongfang 1-1 gas field, setting a new domestic record for drilling speed with a maximum daily penetration of 2,618 meters on August 12 [1][3] - This project is notable as it is China's first high-temperature, high-pressure, low-permeability natural gas development project, with reservoir temperatures reaching 150 degrees Celsius and pressure coefficients exceeding 1.8 [1][3] Group 1 - The drilling operation not only represents a breakthrough in offshore drilling speed but also surpasses the drilling speed records of onshore gas wells [3] - The operation team utilized a self-developed "Drilling Optimization System" that employs big data analysis to optimize drilling parameters, allowing for efficient coordination among various technical personnel and equipment [3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, CNOOC is aggressively advancing oil and gas reserve enhancement projects, with an average of nearly 1,000 offshore wells drilled annually, marking a 40% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] Group 2 - The number of wells in new fields such as deep, ultra-deep, deep water, and ultra-high temperature and pressure has doubled compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - Overall drilling and completion efficiency has improved by 15% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that CNOOC has demonstrated resilience through increased reserves and production despite a significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $70.94 per barrel, down 14.58% year-on-year [2][3] - CNOOC's oil production reached 296.1 million barrels, an increase of 4.48% year-on-year, while natural gas production rose by 11.97% to 516.2 million barrels [2] - The company has successfully managed costs, with the average cost per barrel of oil equivalent at $26.94, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, CNOOC reported revenue of RMB 207.61 billion, a decline of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 69.53 billion, down 12.8% [1] - Oil and gas sales revenue was approximately RMB 171.75 billion, reflecting a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [2] - The company is projected to maintain stable net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with estimates of RMB 1344.28 billion, RMB 1370.74 billion, and RMB 1407.40 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.83, 2.88, and 2.96 [9][10] Exploration and Development - CNOOC has intensified exploration efforts, achieving five new discoveries in Chinese waters and significant breakthroughs in metamorphic rock exploration in the South China Sea [3] - The company has signed oil contracts in Iraq and Kazakhstan, further solidifying its resource base for future development [9] Strategic Initiatives - CNOOC is focusing on green transformation initiatives, including offshore CCUS and gas recovery measures, alongside advancements in its offshore floating wind power projects [9]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Global oil and gas capital expenditure has declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a 122% reduction from 2014 highs to $351 billion in 2021, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [8][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened concerns over global energy supply, with the EU aiming to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][31] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with Brent crude at $67.89 per barrel and WTI at $63.31 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.01% and 2.17% respectively [10][32][50] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has shown resilience, with the average market price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 692 yuan per ton, up 2.61% week-on-week, supported by increased demand from power plants [11][12] - The supply side is gradually improving as coal mines resume production, but demand remains strong due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption [11][12] - The focus on domestic coal production and the impact of international energy dynamics, particularly from the EU's renewed coal demand, are expected to enhance the profitability of domestic coal companies [12] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coke remains stable at 1280 yuan per ton, with downstream steel mills showing a need for replenishment despite high raw material costs [13][14] - Coking coal prices are also stable at 1610 yuan per ton, with market sentiment cautious as procurement slows down after previous stockpiling [13][14] - Steel production remains robust, with an average daily output of 240.73 million tons, indicating ongoing demand for coke [13] Group 4: Natural Gas Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowdown in global natural gas demand growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, with expectations of accelerated growth in 2026 [15][16] - Natural gas prices have decreased, with NYMEX natural gas averaging $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 5.6% week-on-week [15][16] - The EU's agreement on a natural gas price cap may exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16][17] Group 5: Oilfield Services Sector - The oilfield services industry is experiencing a recovery in activity levels, supported by government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas production [18][19] - Global active rig counts have increased to 1621, with a slight rise in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a positive trend in exploration and production activities [19] - The overall capital expenditure in the oil sector is expected to continue growing, driven by high oil prices and geopolitical factors [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The company is steadily advancing domestic oil and gas reserves and production, with a significant breakthrough in metamorphic rock exploration in the South China Sea [2][3] - The Bohai Oilfield has achieved a record oil and gas production of 20.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, enhancing offshore oil and gas supply capabilities [4][9] - The Guyana Stabroek block has reached a new monthly production high, with the Yellowtail project expected to commence production in Q4 2025, increasing total capacity to 940,000 barrels per day [4][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Production - The Weizhou 10-5 South Oilfield has made a significant breakthrough in metamorphic rock exploration, with a test well producing 400 barrels of oil and 16.5 million cubic feet of gas per day [3][8] - The Weizhou 5-3 oilfield development project has been put into production, with an expected peak output of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The Brent oil price forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from $75 to $68 per barrel, leading to a reduction in the company's net profit estimates to 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][17] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, with PE ratios of 9.7, 9.4, and 9.0x for the same years [6][17] Market Conditions - OPEC+ is gradually exiting an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, with short-term demand supported by seasonal factors [5][13] - The average WTI crude oil price for Q2 2025 is projected at $64.0 per barrel, reflecting a 10.5% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 20.7% year-on-year decline [5][14]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) aims to achieve an oil and gas production target of 40 million tons this year from the Bohai Oilfield while maintaining cost advantages in oil production amidst the "dual carbon" goals [2][3][4] Group 1: Production and Development - The Bohai Oilfield is a key area for CNOOC, contributing significantly to China's oil and gas production, with plans for marine crude oil production to account for approximately 80% of the national total increase by 2024 [3][4] - The Bohai Oilfield has seen a continuous increase in production since 2019, with daily crude oil production surpassing 100,000 tons, representing nearly one-sixth of the national output [4][5] - As of the end of last year, the Bohai Oilfield confirmed net reserves of 2.24 billion barrels of oil equivalent (approximately 306 million tons), accounting for about 30% of CNOOC's total reserves [7] Group 2: Technological Advancements - CNOOC has made significant breakthroughs in exploration and development technologies, including the development of heavy oil extraction techniques and deepwater oil and gas equipment [5][9] - The company has implemented a modular assembly approach for platform construction, reducing project timelines to 3-5 years [9] - CNOOC's first deepwater jacket platform and cylindrical FPSO have been successfully deployed, extending the production life of oil fields and reducing development costs [5][9] Group 3: Cost Management and Efficiency - CNOOC has maintained a low cost of approximately $28 per barrel, the lowest among major oil companies, despite the higher challenges of offshore exploration [8][10] - The company has implemented a cost reduction and efficiency enhancement strategy since 2014, focusing on project economic viability and management innovation [9][10] - Energy-saving measures at the Bohai Oilfield have led to a reduction in daily electricity consumption by 13,300 kWh, translating to annual savings of over 3.6 million yuan [10] Group 4: Environmental Considerations - CNOOC is committed to a development philosophy that balances protection and development, aiming to implement a carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) center in the Bohai region [9][10] - The company has replaced traditional oil and gas power generation methods with shore power, marking the largest offshore oil field shore power project in China [9]