证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好业绩持续兑现的工程机械&油服设备； 推荐 PCB 设备高景气&进口替代&技术迭代 逻辑 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【工程机械】国内外周期强共振，看好板块业绩持续释放 国内来看，2025 年为国内周期上行起点，2025 年 1-7 月国内挖掘机累计销量 72943 台， 同比增长 22.3%；装载机国内销量 40171 台，同比增长 20.4%。在更新替换逻辑+资金 到位持续改善支撑下，国内仍有望维持 2-3 年上行景气周期；海外来看，短期非洲、印 尼等地需求高景气，1-7 月挖掘机出口销量 64715 台，同比增长 13%；装载机出口量 33598 台，同比增长 4.85%。长期中国品牌竞争力逐步兑现提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery and oil service equipment sectors [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a projected total investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2][21] - The engineering machinery sector shows a mixed outlook, with a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, indicating undervalued investment opportunities [3] - The trend towards lightweight humanoid robots is accelerating, with increased application of magnesium alloys and PEEK materials, enhancing performance and efficiency [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in energy projects in the Middle East is expected to reach $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024, with oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion [2][21] - Leading companies like Jerry and Neway have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jerry's orders expected to double in 2024 [2][23] - The Middle East oil service market is projected to be worth over $100 billion, with significant growth potential for Chinese companies [2][21] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales declining by 1.48% [3] - Non-excavator machinery sales are recovering, with significant year-on-year increases in sales of road rollers and pavers [3] - The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities as export sales continue to support overall performance [3] Humanoid Robots - Lightweight design is becoming a core focus for humanoid robot manufacturers, utilizing materials like magnesium alloys and PEEK to reduce weight and improve performance [4][25] - Magnesium alloy's density is only two-thirds that of aluminum, offering advantages in strength and processing, while PEEK materials are expected to see increased application as costs decrease [26][27] - Investment opportunities in magnesium alloy die-casting and PEEK materials are highlighted, with specific companies recommended for attention [5][28] Forklifts and AI in Logistics - The integration of AI in logistics is driving the transformation towards automation, with a focus on unmanned forklifts and smart logistics solutions [6] - Key players in the forklift industry are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [6] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of major players like CATL, with significant investments in new production facilities [10][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology as a future growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent positioned to capitalize on this trend [10][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the magnesium alloy die-casting sector such as Xusheng Group and Baowu Magnesium, as well as PEEK material companies like Zhongyan Co. and Watte [5][28]

Group 1 - China's investment and construction projects in the energy sector for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Angola from 2020 to 2024 total $50.28 billion, with major oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion, showing a year-on-year increasing trend [1] - The oil service equipment industry has high standards, long application cycles, and requires dual certification from both the industry and clients, creating significant technical barriers and a favorable competitive landscape [1] - Leading domestic oil service equipment companies, such as Jereh and Neway, have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jereh's orders in the region expected to double in 2024 and Neway's overseas orders increasing by 60% in Q1 2025, with Middle East and Africa orders making up 44% of the total [1] Group 2 - The long-term energy transition concerns have led oil companies to favor the development of offshore oil and gas resources, which have superior resource endowments and lower barrel costs, as oil prices remain stable [2] - The development of offshore oil and gas resources is gaining momentum, with advancements in technology and equipment enhancing the competitiveness of China's oil service industry in international markets [2] - It is recommended to focus on resource stocks and oil service stocks that demonstrate stable performance [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the oil service sector include CNOOC Services (02883), Sinopec Oilfield Services (01033), Giant Oilfield Services (03303), Anton Oilfield Services (03337), and Honghua Group (00196) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a cumulative investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2] - The lithium battery equipment sector is benefiting from the release of impairment risks and accelerated production expansion, particularly with major players like CATL increasing their production capacity [3] - The humanoid robot sector is seeing advancements with the launch of second-generation electronic skin and accelerated mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot [4] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator machinery, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations [5] - The forklift industry is undergoing a transformation towards automation and intelligence, driven by AI advancements [6] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in the energy sector is projected to drive significant growth in oil service equipment exports, particularly to the Middle East, with leading companies like Jereh and Neway experiencing explosive order growth [2] Lithium Battery Equipment - The sector has accounted for a total impairment provision of 5.7 billion yuan, with major expansions planned by CATL, including a new factory in Hungary with a total capacity of 72GWh [3] - Solid-state battery technology is emerging as a key growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent expected to benefit significantly [3] Humanoid Robots - The introduction of advanced electronic skin technology enhances the capabilities of humanoid robots, while Tesla's Optimus robot is moving towards mass production [4] Engineering Machinery - Despite a decrease in excavator sales, there is a notable recovery in other machinery segments, with exports showing a 9% increase in the first four months of 2025 [5] Forklift Industry - The integration of AI in logistics is accelerating the shift towards automated and intelligent forklifts, with significant opportunities for leading companies in the sector [6]

Macro and Strategy - April financial data indicates a weaker than expected performance, with new social financing at 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan [6][7] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 7.5%, reflecting a shift towards government financing dominance while private sector credit remains weak [6][7] - The report highlights a significant decline in new loans, with April's new credit at 280 billion yuan, a drop of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [7] Industry and Company Analysis Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) - The company is a leading oilfield equipment manufacturer and service provider, with projected revenues of 9.44 billion yuan in 2010 and 133.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20.83% [12] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 26.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [12] - The company has a strong competitive position in high-end equipment, maintaining a leading market share in domestic and international markets [13] XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 916.60 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.28%, while net profit increased by 12.20% to 59.76 billion yuan [14] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an optimized product structure and increased overseas revenue [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow [16] Hangcha Group (603298.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 164.86 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.15%, with net profit increasing by 17.86% [17] - The rise in profitability is driven by higher margins from overseas business and a reduction in raw material costs [18] - The company is expanding its international presence, with significant growth in its smart logistics segment [18] TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 978.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 41.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to losses in the polysilicon segment [19] - The company is focusing on expanding its transmission and transformation business, with a notable increase in overseas market contracts [19] - The polysilicon business is under pressure due to price declines, prompting the company to reduce production [20] First Solar (FSLR.O) - The company achieved a revenue of 42.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 56% [22] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 66.1 GW of orders as of Q1 2025, indicating robust future demand [23] - Despite uncertainties in U.S. policy, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand for solar energy [24] JD Group (09618.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 16% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in retail and logistics [25] - The non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [26] - The company is leveraging AI technology across its retail and supply chain operations to enhance efficiency [27] Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 367.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 116.68 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [28] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment has become the largest business unit, with significant growth in international markets [29] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in the medical device sector, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [30]