（记者 曾健辉） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经AI快讯，国信证券12月25日发布研报称，给予中国海油（600938.SH，最新价：28.13元）"优于大 市"评级。评级理由主要包括：1）涠洲11-4油田调整及围区开发项目投产，高峰产量达16900桶/天； 2）西江油田群24区开发项目投产，高峰产量达18000桶/天；3）公司在渤海海域新近系浅层获得秦皇岛 29-6亿吨级油田发现，为增储上产夯实资源基础；4）渤海油田2025年年产油气当量突破4000万吨，坚 实保障国家能源安全。风险提示：原油价格大幅波动的风险；自然灾害频发的风险；新项目投产不及预 期的风险；地缘政治风险；政策风险等。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——对话马斯克脑机接口"一号受试者"：大脑植入芯片23个月，我正重新夺回 人生的独立 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The company has announced the production commencement of the Weizhou 11-4 oilfield adjustment and surrounding area development project, with a peak production capacity of 16,900 barrels per day expected by 2026 [4][8] - The West Jiang oilfield group 24 area development project is also set to commence production, with a peak production capacity of 18,000 barrels per day anticipated by 2026 [4][9] - A significant discovery of a billion-ton oilfield, Qinhuangdao 29-6, has been made in the Bohai Sea, which is expected to solidify the resource base for increased production [5][10] - The Bohai oilfield is projected to exceed an annual production equivalent of 40 million tons by 2025, contributing significantly to national energy security [6][11] - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, and PE ratios of 10.6, 10.3, and 9.9x [6][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Project Developments - The Weizhou 11-4 oilfield project will utilize existing facilities and is expected to reach a peak production of 16,900 barrels per day by 2026, with 35 wells planned [4][8] - The West Jiang oilfield group 24 area project will also leverage existing infrastructure, aiming for a peak production of 18,000 barrels per day by 2026, featuring innovative technology for continuous production [4][9] Resource Discoveries - The Qinhuangdao 29-6 oilfield discovery in the Bohai Sea has confirmed geological reserves exceeding 100 million tons of oil equivalent, showcasing the exploration potential in the area [5][10] Production and Financial Forecasts - The Bohai oilfield's annual production is expected to surpass 40 million tons by 2025, marking it as a crucial asset for national energy security [6][11] - The company projects steady growth in net profits and earnings per share over the next few years, maintaining a favorable valuation outlook [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed growth in Q3 revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2169.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 126.279 billion yuan, down 4.90% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 719.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.34% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.18%, with a net profit of 42.286 billion yuan, down 3.86% year-on-year but up 13.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Oil and Gas Operations - The company has proven oil reserves of 6.18 billion barrels and natural gas reserves of 728 trillion cubic feet as of 2024 [1]. - From January to September 2025, the average realized price of crude oil was $65.55 per barrel, a decrease of 14.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The company produced 714.3 million barrels of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and sold 3977.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2]. Chemical and New Materials Business - The company’s chemical products output reached 29.59 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with new materials production growing by 59.4% [2]. - The successful commissioning of the Jilin ethylene project and ongoing projects in Guangxi and Blue Ocean New Materials are expected to drive rapid growth in the chemical sector [3]. Sales Performance - The total sales of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel reached 120.876 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while natural gas sales were 218.541 billion cubic meters, up 4.2% year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 2.99% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 13.02 yuan based on a 14x PE for 2026, and a "buy" rating has been initiated [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed resilience in its performance despite low oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.97 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 104.89 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the first three quarters of 2025 was $69.91 per barrel, a year-on-year decline of 14.6%. In Q3 2025, the average price was $68.17 per barrel, down 13.4% year-on-year but up 2.18% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company’s realized price for oil liquids in the first three quarters of 2025 was $68.29 per barrel, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year, indicating that the decline in oil prices has impacted the company's performance [2]. Group 3: Production Growth - The company has been actively increasing oil and gas reserves and production, with total production in Q3 2025 reaching 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%. Crude oil production was 149 million barrels, up 7.12% year-on-year, and natural gas production was 261.3 billion cubic feet, an increase of 10.96% year-on-year [3]. - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 28.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year, reflecting a reduction in the workload of ongoing projects while still maintaining a high level to support business operations [3]. Group 4: New Projects and Future Outlook - The company has accelerated the development of key capacity construction projects, with several new projects successfully coming online, including the Kenli 10-2 oilfield group and the Dongfang 1-1 gas field in July 2025, the Guyana Yellowtail project in August, and the Wenchang 16-2 oilfield in September [4]. - The ongoing progress of other new projects is expected to sustain high growth rates in oil and gas production, indicating strong growth potential for the company [4]. Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong profit certainty with oil prices stabilizing at mid-to-high levels, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan, and PE ratios of 9.7X, 9.4X, and 9.2X [5].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported strong operational performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant increases in oil and gas production and revenue generation [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Oil and gas sales revenue reached 255.48 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.97 billion yuan [1]. - The net production of oil and gas for the first three quarters was 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1]. - Domestic net production was 400.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.6% year-on-year, driven by contributions from projects like Deep Sea No. 1 Phase II and Bohai Zhong 19-2 [1]. - Overseas net production was 177.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year, primarily due to the Mero 3 project in Brazil [1]. - In the third quarter, net production reached 193.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1]. Group 2: Exploration and Development - In the first three quarters, the company made five new discoveries and successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures [1]. - The third quarter saw the successful evaluation of Kenli 10-6, which is expected to become a medium-sized oil field, and significant results from the integrated rolling reserve increase at Ling Shui 17-2 [1]. - The company launched 14 new projects in the first three quarters, including the development of the Kenli 10-2 oil field group (Phase I), Dongfang 29-1 gas field, Wenchang 19-1 oil field, and the Guyana Yellowtail project [1]. Group 3: Management Outlook - The President of CNOOC, Yan Hongtao, stated that the company is steadily advancing engineering construction and effectively controlling costs, aiming to meet annual production and operational targets in the fourth quarter [2].

Core Viewpoint - The oil service industry continues to show strong performance in Q3, driven by increased investment from oil and gas companies and a favorable market environment due to stable international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - ShenKai Co. reported a revenue of 568 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%, and a net profit of 37.775 million yuan, up 86.46% [2]. - DeShi Co. achieved a net profit of 95.716 million yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a 50.13% year-on-year growth, with Q3 net profit reaching 50.549 million yuan, a 75.47% increase [2]. - JieRui Co. reported a revenue of 10.42 billion yuan, a 29.49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.808 billion yuan, up 13.11% [2]. - BeiKen Energy's revenue for the first three quarters was 747 million yuan, a 23.38% increase, with a net profit of 29.014 million yuan, up 19.21% [3]. - HaiYou Development reported a revenue of 33.947 billion yuan, a 0.81% increase, and a net profit of 2.853 billion yuan, up 6.11% [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The oil service industry is experiencing a positive outlook due to increased capital expenditures from upstream oil companies, leading to more business opportunities for oil service firms [2][3][5]. - Major contracts have been signed, such as HaiYou Engineering's contract with PTTEP worth approximately 800 million USD and China National Petroleum Engineering's contract in Iraq valued at 2.524 billion USD [4]. - Global oil giants, like Saudi Aramco, are planning significant investments in new projects, indicating a robust demand for oil service equipment and services [5]. - Domestic developments, such as the discovery of a new shale oil resource in the Sichuan Basin, further enhance the growth potential for the oil service sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading integrated oilfield service provider globally, with services spanning the entire offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production process [14]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for offshore oil and gas development in China, supported by the capital expenditure plans of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [2][43]. - The drilling service segment is experiencing an upward cycle, with high platform utilization rates and potential for daily rates to increase [2][21]. - The oilfield technology service segment is characterized by lower cyclicality and is expected to see steady revenue growth due to technological advancements [3][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in four main business segments: drilling services, oilfield technical services, marine services, and geophysical exploration services [14]. - It holds a dominant position in the nearshore drilling market in China and has extensive experience in offshore oilfield services [14][21]. Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to stabilize in the range of $60-65 per barrel, with OPEC+ maintaining a strong interest in supporting oil prices [2][43]. - The transition from land to offshore oil and gas exploration is driven by limited land resources and rising extraction costs [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 44,109 million yuan in 2023 to 62,957 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,013 million yuan in 2023 to 4,556 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 14.7% [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 18.6 and 20.0 times [3][4]. Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 13.62 and 14.60 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 0% to 4.06% compared to the current stock price of 14.03 yuan [5][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of around 7.6% in 2025, increasing to 8.9% by 2027 [4].

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully completed surface operations for six development wells in the Dongfang 1-1 gas field, setting a new domestic record for drilling speed with a maximum daily penetration of 2,618 meters on August 12 [1][3] - This project is notable as it is China's first high-temperature, high-pressure, low-permeability natural gas development project, with reservoir temperatures reaching 150 degrees Celsius and pressure coefficients exceeding 1.8 [1][3] Group 1 - The drilling operation not only represents a breakthrough in offshore drilling speed but also surpasses the drilling speed records of onshore gas wells [3] - The operation team utilized a self-developed "Drilling Optimization System" that employs big data analysis to optimize drilling parameters, allowing for efficient coordination among various technical personnel and equipment [3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, CNOOC is aggressively advancing oil and gas reserve enhancement projects, with an average of nearly 1,000 offshore wells drilled annually, marking a 40% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] Group 2 - The number of wells in new fields such as deep, ultra-deep, deep water, and ultra-high temperature and pressure has doubled compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - Overall drilling and completion efficiency has improved by 15% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that CNOOC has demonstrated resilience through increased reserves and production despite a significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $70.94 per barrel, down 14.58% year-on-year [2][3] - CNOOC's oil production reached 296.1 million barrels, an increase of 4.48% year-on-year, while natural gas production rose by 11.97% to 516.2 million barrels [2] - The company has successfully managed costs, with the average cost per barrel of oil equivalent at $26.94, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, CNOOC reported revenue of RMB 207.61 billion, a decline of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 69.53 billion, down 12.8% [1] - Oil and gas sales revenue was approximately RMB 171.75 billion, reflecting a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [2] - The company is projected to maintain stable net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with estimates of RMB 1344.28 billion, RMB 1370.74 billion, and RMB 1407.40 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.83, 2.88, and 2.96 [9][10] Exploration and Development - CNOOC has intensified exploration efforts, achieving five new discoveries in Chinese waters and significant breakthroughs in metamorphic rock exploration in the South China Sea [3] - The company has signed oil contracts in Iraq and Kazakhstan, further solidifying its resource base for future development [9] Strategic Initiatives - CNOOC is focusing on green transformation initiatives, including offshore CCUS and gas recovery measures, alongside advancements in its offshore floating wind power projects [9]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Global oil and gas capital expenditure has declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a 122% reduction from 2014 highs to $351 billion in 2021, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [8][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened concerns over global energy supply, with the EU aiming to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][31] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with Brent crude at $67.89 per barrel and WTI at $63.31 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.01% and 2.17% respectively [10][32][50] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has shown resilience, with the average market price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 692 yuan per ton, up 2.61% week-on-week, supported by increased demand from power plants [11][12] - The supply side is gradually improving as coal mines resume production, but demand remains strong due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption [11][12] - The focus on domestic coal production and the impact of international energy dynamics, particularly from the EU's renewed coal demand, are expected to enhance the profitability of domestic coal companies [12] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coke remains stable at 1280 yuan per ton, with downstream steel mills showing a need for replenishment despite high raw material costs [13][14] - Coking coal prices are also stable at 1610 yuan per ton, with market sentiment cautious as procurement slows down after previous stockpiling [13][14] - Steel production remains robust, with an average daily output of 240.73 million tons, indicating ongoing demand for coke [13] Group 4: Natural Gas Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowdown in global natural gas demand growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, with expectations of accelerated growth in 2026 [15][16] - Natural gas prices have decreased, with NYMEX natural gas averaging $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 5.6% week-on-week [15][16] - The EU's agreement on a natural gas price cap may exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16][17] Group 5: Oilfield Services Sector - The oilfield services industry is experiencing a recovery in activity levels, supported by government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas production [18][19] - Global active rig counts have increased to 1621, with a slight rise in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a positive trend in exploration and production activities [19] - The overall capital expenditure in the oil sector is expected to continue growing, driven by high oil prices and geopolitical factors [18]