商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

宏观、公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 2025 年 8 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,614 | 2.58 | 27.69 | | 恒生国企 | 9,150 | 2.62 | 25.52 | | 恒生科技 | 5,631 | 3.52 | 26.02 | | 上证综指 | 3,683 | 0.48 | 9.90 | | 深证综指 | 2,289 | 1.33 | 16.94 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,497 | 3.62 | 16.57 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,922 | 1.04 | 5.59 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,467 | 0.32 | 9.95 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 21,713 | 0.14 | 12.44 | | 德国 DAX | 24,186 | 0.67 | 21.48 | | 法国 ...

1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily review of coke and coking coal, dated August 14, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Performance 3.1 Futures Market - On August 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures significantly declined, giving back most of the gains from the previous two trading days. The J2601 contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, down 2.83%, with a trading volume of 35,677 lots and an open interest of 38,707 lots, an increase of 1,917 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.11 billion yuan. The JM2601 contract closed at 1245 yuan/ton, down 3.00%, with a trading volume of 2,684,599 lots and an open interest of 685,537 lots, a decrease of 33,409 lots, and a capital outflow of 10.86 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Spot Market - On August 13, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1400 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - On August 13, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed divergent trends. The J and K values turned down, while the D value continued to rise. The daily MACD indicator of the coke 2601 contract changed from a golden cross the previous day to a death cross, and the daily MACD indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract showed a significant narrowing of the red column after a golden cross the previous day, nearly a death cross [8] 4. News and Policy 4.1 Coking Industry - On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental production restrictions, requiring a 30% - 50% production cut from August 16 to early September. Specifically, from August 16 - 25, a 30% cut is required, from August 26 to September 3, a 50% cut, and production will resume on September 4 [10] 4.2 Coal Industry - On August 13, the National Mine Safety Administration held a press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations". The revision mainly includes significantly reducing the requirements for underground gas inspectors and inspection frequencies based on the actual coal mine operations, and relaxing some detailed requirements regarding the number of working faces to enterprise decision - making [10] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Coke - The coke production of independent coking plants has slowly recovered to a new high since mid - June, but the overall increase is still small. The coke production of steel mills has continued to decline, reaching a new low since early February. Port coke inventories have reached a new high since the end of May and tend to continue accumulating, while steel mills and coking plants have further reduced their inventories, reaching new lows since mid - December and early December last year respectively. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 12 consecutive weeks. The 5th round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on August 4, and the 6th round of price increase proposed on August 13 may be implemented the next day [10] 5.2 Coking Coal - From January to July, the year - on - year import volume of coal and lignite in China increased by 1.9 percentage points to - 13.0%. From January to June, the year - on - year import volume of coking coal in China still showed a large decline of - 7.4%. The inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines have significantly decreased in the past 7 weeks, with declines of 50.8% and 32.1% respectively. The inventories of independent coking plants are hovering near a new high since early February, and the inventories of steel mills have continued to rise, reaching a new high since early February, while port inventories have reached a new low since early August last year. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventories and the cooling of coking plant replenishment, the spot price of coking coal is relatively strong [11] 6. Market Outlook - Affected by the production restrictions of steel enterprises in Tangshan, which boosted the profits of downstream finished products, and the superimposed production restrictions of coking enterprises in Shandong, although the recent increase in the spot prices of coke and coking coal has been relatively lagging, the futures market, especially the main 2601 contract, has risen significantly again. However, it failed to break through on August 13, and the market may shift to a mid - to - high - level oscillation in the future. Attention should be paid to changes in the stock market and risk appetite [11] 7. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", providing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [12] - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first half of this year, the investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start construction reached over 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6% [12] - Ningxia Coal Industry Company of the National Energy Group achieved good results from June to July, with commodity coal production of 10.567 million tons, sales of 11.1551 million tons, chemical product sales of 1.139 million tons, and railway transportation volume of 12.939 million tons, breaking the historical record for the same period [13] - China has basically formed a three - dimensional coal transportation pattern, with "seven vertical and five horizontal" coal railway trunk lines, coal - handling ports in the north and receiving ports in the south, and 33 UHV transmission lines [13] - In Xinjiang, the railway department's daily coal shipment reached 410,000 tons as of July 24, with a cumulative external shipment of 50.774 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% [13] - Jizhong Energy adjusted its coal prices due to factors such as over - production inspections and the peak season of thermal coal demand [13] - Yunnan Coal Group's raw coal production in the first half of the year reached 5.4001 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.18%, and the stripping volume increased by 65.98% year - on - year [13] - The Indian rupee has been weak against the US dollar, and the Indian central bank has sold at least $5 billion to support the rupee. The US dollar index has been oscillating above the 98 mark, and the RMB has shown resilience [13] - The EIA expects US coal production to be 473 million tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and to decrease to 445 million tons in 2026 [13] - In July 2025, Russia's coal exports to China by rail were 8.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%. From January to July, the total was 58.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88% [13] - Russia's trade surplus from January to June 2025 decreased by 18.39% year - on - year to $63.9 billion. Exports decreased by $13.3 billion to $195.5 billion, and imports increased slightly by $1.1 billion to $131.6 billion [13] - OPEC's monthly report shows that in July, OPEC +'s average crude oil production was 41.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 335,000 barrels per day from June. The global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.29 million barrels per day, and the forecast for 2026 is adjusted from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day [14] - Australia's coal export value in June 2025 was 6.252 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 35.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.51%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 31.006 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 30.26% [14] - Canada's coal export volume in May 2025 was 3.4116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 186.79% and a month - on - month increase of 5.97%. The export value was $645 million, a year - on - year increase of 203.24% [14] - In June, India's oil imports from Russia accounted for 45% of its total imports, up from 44% in May. India's total oil imports in June fell below 5 million barrels per day for the first time in five months, to 4.86 million barrels per day, a 2% month - on - month decrease [14] 8. Data Overview - The report provides data on metallurgical coke and coking coal spot prices, production and inventory of coking plants and steel mills, and related basis data [15][16][17]

来源：中国青年报 (2025年08月14日 01版) 消费贷款领域又一"国补"日前落地。在国新办今天举行的新闻发布会上，财政部副部长廖岷表示，对居 民个人消费贷款和消费领域的服务业经营主体贷款实施贴息政策，这是中央层面首次实施。 8月12日，《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》同步 印发，前者明确贴息对象为居民使用的相关贷款经办机构个人消费贷款中实际用于消费的部分，包括单 笔5万元以下日常消费以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、 电子产品和健康医疗等重点领域消费，后者明确贴息对象是向消费领域服务业经营主体发放的银行贷 款，聚焦餐饮住宿、健康、养老、托育、家政、文化娱乐、旅游、体育等8类主要消费服务领域。两项 政策贴息比例均为1个百分点，政策实施期为一年。 "这两项政策到期后，我们还会开展效果评估，研究视情延长政策的期限，或扩大支持范围，和调整贷 款经办机构的范围。"廖岷表示，两项政策不设繁琐的门槛、不搞复杂的操作，力求惠及广大人民群众 生活和经营主体经营所需，"贴息测算和申请等工作主要由贷款经办机构完成，这样能最大程度地便利 借款人。 ...

8月13日上午10点，国新办就个人消费贷款贴息政策和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策有关情况举行新闻 发布会。 财政部副部长廖岷和商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局有关负责人进行相关介绍并答记者问。 为何贴息? "真金白银"助力居民更好消费 新闻发布会上，财政部副部长廖岷对于已公开印发的《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务 业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》介绍有关情况。 廖岷介绍，对于个人消费贷款贴息政策，这项政策直接惠及广大人民群众，是中央财政首次对个人消费 贷款进行贴息。 贴息对象为，居民使用的相关贷款经办机构个人消费贷款中实际用于消费的部分，包括单笔5万元以下 日常消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、电子产品 和健康医疗等重点领域消费，贴息比例为1个百分点，大体为当前商业银行个人消费贷款利率水平的 1/3，政策实施期为1年。支持范围既包括商品消费，也包括服务消费，这符合我国居民目前消费的最新 多元化发展趋势。 廖岷介绍，从消费结构看，我国目前服务消费具有较大增长潜力，为了释放这一潜力，需要有更高品质 的供给，因此同步实施了服务业经营主体贷款的贴息政策。贴息对象 ...

8月12日，财政部会同商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等部门发布《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策 实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》。13日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，四部 门详解政策要点。 贴息范围和力度有多大？ "对居民个人消费贷款和消费领域的服务业经营主体贷款实施贴息政策，这是中央层面首次实施。"财政 部副部长廖岷介绍，此次个人消费贷款贴息政策，贴息对象为居民个人消费贷款中实际用于消费的部 分，包括单笔5万元以下日常消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅 游、家居家装、电子产品和健康医疗等重点领域消费，贴息比例为1个百分点，约为当前商业银行个人 消费贷款利率水平的1/3，政策实施期为1年。 例如，消费者使用个人消费贷款，在政策执行期内花了20万元用于装修、购置家具家电等，假设该笔消 费贷款年利率为3%，在没有贴息的情况下，他全年需要支付贷款利息6000元，享受贴息政策后，最高 可减少利息支出2000元。 消费领域服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，贴息对象是向消费领域服务业经营主体发放的银行贷款，聚焦 于餐饮住宿、健康、养老、托育、家政、文化娱乐、旅游、体育等8类主要消费 ...

个人消费贷单笔最高可享贴息500元 居民享受个人消费贷款贴息的条件是什么？财政部金融司司长于红介绍，从今年9月开始的一年时间 里，无论是日常生活性的小额消费，还是买车、装修、购置家具家电或手机电脑等较大额度的商品消 费，或者是旅游、养老、生育、教培、医疗等服务消费，只要是在相关机构获得了消费贷款，其中实实 在在花出去用于消费的部分，都可以享受贴息支持，每人单笔消费最高享受的贷款贴息是500元，多笔 消费可以叠加享受。 具体规则为：对于单笔5万元以下的消费，按照实际金额计算贴息，多笔叠加以后，在同一家贷款机构 最高可以享受贴息1000元；对于单笔5万元以上的消费，以5万元为上限来计算贴息，也可以多笔叠加， 加上小额消费的贴息以后，在同一家贷款机构最高可享受贴息3000元。 需要说明的是，个人消费贷款贴息政策支持的是消费者合理的借贷需求和真实的消费行为，如果借款人 使用个人消费贷款用于一些非消费领域，或是其他违规套利行为，这不属于政策的支持范围，将无法取 得贴息资金。 个人如何申请消费贷款贴息？据了解，借款人在申请个人消费贷款签订相关贷款合同的同时，只需要增 加一个操作，就是要授予贷款经办机构相关权限，允许其识别 ...

听说了吗？你信用卡刷爆了没关系，因为从2025年9月1日开始，国家直接给你办消费贷款贴息，最高还能拿到3000块钱的补贴，真的是实实在在的 钱。可问题来了，你知道怎么买车能多省500块？家里装修用贷款又该怎么组合最划算？还有跨银行申请的时候，有哪些不为人知的操作技巧？今 天咱们就用最靠谱的算账方法，把这个政策的红利给你算得清清楚楚。 说实话，这政策里也有几个必须注意的"坑"，不能踩。第一，信用卡消费是不参加贴息的！很多人平时喜欢刷信用卡再分期，这种做法一点补贴都 拿不到。第二，贷款资金必须是真实用于消费的。如果银行发现你把钱转到股票账户，那补贴不仅没了，还可能被银行提前收回贷款。第三，重点 领域消费要保留好凭证。举例来说，家装贷款一定要留好装修合同和付款凭证，这样银行审核的时候才有据可依。 关于操作时机，我帮你把时间表梳理好了。9月1日一开办，先到你常用的银行申请小额消费贷款（建议单笔贷款控制在49000元以下，刚好避开5万 元起算门槛）；到10月份，再集中办理大额消费贷款，而且不同银行之间申请的时间至少间隔7天以上；然后，12月底之前一定要完成所有贷款消 费流程，留足时间给银行做审批跟踪。例如，你想拿满30 ...

8 月 13 日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍个人消费贷款贴息政策和服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策有关情况，两项政策部署进一步明晰。与此同时，作为主要经办单位，多家银行积极发文 表态，推进相关工作筹备。 受访专家指出，本轮政策贴息幅度相对温和，为下一步政策升级预留空间。对于银行而言，将有利 于保障其相关贷款业务可持续，助力银行高质量发展。建议金融机构摒弃规模情结和速度情结，增强商 业可持续性、提升风险防控有效性。 超10家银行积极响应 "补贴方式更精准、支持消费的力度更大、惠及的范围更广、贴息的流程更高效。"8月13日上午， 在国新办就个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策召开的新闻发布会上，财政部副部长廖岷这样 总结本轮政策特点。 就在前一日下午，两项提振消费的重磅方案出炉，分别是由财政部等九部门联合印发的《服务业经 营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，以及由财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局三部门联合印发的《个 人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》，助力消费再升级。 据悉，个人消费贷款贴息政策直接惠及广大人民群众，也是中央财政首次对个人消费贷款进行贴 息，服务业经营主体贷款的贴息政策则是聚焦8类主要消费 ...

8月12日，为贯彻落实党中央和国务院关于大力提振消费、全方位扩大国内需求的决策部署，财政部等九部门发布《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方 案》。同日，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》。 交通银行8月13日公告，将坚持市场化、法治化原则，优化办理流程，简化办理手续，对符合通知要求的贷款实施贴息。 8月13日，邮储银行发布关于个人消费贷款与服务业经营主体贷款财政贴息工作的公告，表示将扎实推动政策传导落地。 除六大行外，包括浦发银行、光大银行、招商银行等在内的多家商业银行也都纷纷表示，将按照市场化、法治化原则，优化办理流程，简化办理手续，推 动政策尽快实施。 新闻多一点>>> 8月13日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，财政部、商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局有关负责人，介绍个人消费贷款贴息政策和服务业经营主 体贷款贴息政策有关情况并答记者问。 在此背景下，多家商业银行积极响应。 8月13日，工商银行发布公告，为进一步支持提振和扩大消费，激发消费潜力，提升市场活力，降低居民消费信贷成本，正在依法依规、积极有序推进财 政贴息工作。同时，工行提示，工行办理该贷款贴息不收取 ...