投 资 策 略 电力设备及新能源行业 超配（维持） 电力设备及新能源行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 零碳纪元启华章，曦源永续万代春 2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资要点： 分析师：刘兴文 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522050001 电话：0769-22119416 邮箱：liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 使部分企业陷入低价无序竞争的困境，多数光伏企业正处于极限经 营和普遍亏损的阶段。光伏行业破解"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键， 在于从"价格战"转向"价值战"，以技术创新驱动产业质变。截 至2025年第三季度，光伏行业的资本支出正处于显著收缩的通道中。 在当前严峻的经营压力下，资本开支的锐减意味着未来新增产能将 大幅减少，光伏企业主动放缓扩张步伐并对资本支出进行结构性调 整，标志着光伏行业的竞争核心正从规模扩张的比拼，转向技术、 品牌和盈利能力的竞争，实现从"量"到"质"的战略转型和高质 量发展。光伏企业将重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting electricity demand-side management in the industrial sector by collecting typical case studies nationwide, with 34 companies and 30 products/technologies proposed for inclusion in the "National Typical Cases of Electricity Demand-Side Management in the Industrial Sector (2025)" list [1][4]. Summary by Sections Case Collection and Evaluation - The MIIT has initiated a nationwide collection of typical cases for electricity demand-side management in the industrial sector, involving preliminary reviews by local authorities and expert evaluations by the China Electricity Council [4]. Proposed Companies and Technologies - A total of 34 companies and 30 products/technologies are proposed for inclusion in the 2025 list, showcasing various management and technical measures aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing electricity consumption [4][5]. Implementation Results - Companies like Hebei Changan Automobile reported direct electricity savings of 13.45 million yuan in 2024 through various energy efficiency measures, including upgrading distribution networks and promoting the use of electric vehicles [6]. - Jilin Linglong Tire achieved a direct electricity savings of 9.31 million kWh in 2024 by improving power factor and utilizing distributed solar power [6]. - Budweiser (Jiamusi) implemented a series of energy optimization measures, resulting in a reduction of 491,900 kWh in electricity consumption in 2024 compared to 2023, alongside a 15% increase in production efficiency [7]. Management and Technical Measures - Companies are establishing dedicated energy management teams and systems to oversee electricity demand-side management, with many implementing advanced technologies such as smart energy management platforms and distributed energy systems [8][9]. - The use of renewable energy sources, such as solar power, is being emphasized, with companies like Jiangdong Hengkang New Materials planning significant solar and energy storage projects to enhance green development [8]. Public Participation and Feedback - The MIIT has opened a public consultation period for stakeholders to provide feedback on the proposed list of companies and technologies, encouraging transparency and community involvement in the electricity demand-side management initiative [4].

Core Viewpoint - The sixth International Forum on New Power Systems and the 21st International Technology Forum of China Southern Power Grid was held, showcasing the achievements and innovations in the construction of new power systems during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Achievements in New Power System Construction - China Southern Power Grid has built the world's largest AC-DC interconnected grid, with cumulative electricity transmission exceeding 950 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The reliability of power supply in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has reached world-class levels [1] - The number of registered market participants in the electricity trading market has surpassed 220,000, accounting for one-fourth of the national total, with over 70% of electricity traded through market mechanisms [1] - The ultra-high voltage transmission technology is internationally leading, with the Kunliulong DC project achieving 19 world-first power technology milestones [1] Group 2: Green Energy Supply and Efficiency - The digitalization efforts have improved the management of renewable energy, with short-term forecasting accuracy for wind and solar power reaching 88% and 93%, respectively [2] - Non-fossil energy generation in five provinces has reached 66% of installed capacity and 56% of total generation, placing it among the leading grids globally [2] - The installed capacity of renewable energy has exceeded 257 million kilowatts, a 3.5-fold increase since 2020 [2] - The capacity for electricity transmission from the west to the east has surpassed 58 million kilowatts, with over 80% of the transmitted electricity being clean energy [2] Group 3: Energy Transition and Consumer Benefits - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, electricity substitution has exceeded 240 billion kilowatt-hours, with electricity accounting for 34% of total energy consumption, 5 percentage points higher than the national average [3] - Over 100,000 charging piles have been installed across urban and rural areas, achieving full coverage in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - The green electricity trading volume is expected to reach 250 billion kilowatt-hours by 2025, surpassing the total of the previous three years [3] Group 4: Collaborative Development of Power Systems - The new power system construction emphasizes collaboration among generation, grid, load, and storage [4] - The installed capacity of pumped storage and new energy storage has exceeded 10 million kilowatts each, with demand-side response levels reaching 7.6% [5] Group 5: Mechanism Innovation and Market Efficiency - New mechanisms have been established for shared storage leasing and auxiliary services, enhancing resource allocation efficiency [6] - The virtual power plant model in Shenzhen exemplifies the integration of electric vehicles as mobile storage, achieving a controllable load of 1.1 million kilowatts [6] Group 6: Technological Innovation and Digital Transformation - The company has implemented advanced technologies for grid management, achieving significant improvements in operational efficiency and safety [7][8] - The digital grid construction is progressing steadily, with the establishment of an AI alliance and the release of national standards [9] - The integration of digital supply chains is driving the development of new business models within the industry [10] Group 7: Commitment to Sustainable Development - The company expresses its commitment to collaborating with various stakeholders to contribute to global sustainable energy development [11]

Core Insights - The Southern Power Grid Company has officially released a white paper detailing its achievements and innovations in the construction of a new power system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Achievements in Power System Development - The company has built the world's largest AC-DC interconnected power grid, with a cumulative electricity transmission of over 950 billion kilowatt-hours [3] - The reliability of power supply in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has reached world-class levels, with over 220,000 registered market participants, accounting for one-fourth of the national total [3] - The installed capacity of renewable energy has exceeded 257 million kilowatts, a 3.5-fold increase since 2020, establishing a clean and low-carbon supply structure [4] Group 2: Green Energy Supply and Consumption - The electricity substitution volume in the five provinces has surpassed 240 billion kilowatt-hours, with electricity accounting for 34% of total energy consumption, 5 percentage points higher than the national average [5] - Over 100,000 charging piles have been installed across urban and rural areas, achieving full coverage in the Greater Bay Area [5] - The trading volume of green electricity certificates is expected to reach 250 billion kilowatt-hours by 2025, surpassing the total of the previous three years [5] Group 3: Collaborative Development of Power Sources and Storage - The company has implemented a system-wide approach to address supply-demand matching challenges, enhancing the efficiency of green electricity across the entire production, transmission, consumption, and storage chain [6] - The installed capacity of pumped storage and new energy storage has exceeded 15 million kilowatts, with demand-side response levels reaching 7.6% [7] - The establishment of 35 new power system demonstration zones and 36 near-zero carbon demonstration zones has provided replicable models for coordinated development [8] Group 4: Technological Innovations - The company has adopted advanced technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence to transform the power grid from traditional to intelligent [9] - Over 99.5% of substations are now unmanned, and the coverage of distribution automation has increased to 99.72% [9] - The company has launched the first national pilot base for artificial intelligence applications in the energy sector, promoting the development of a digital power grid [10]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration announced significant achievements in the energy sector, with total installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeding 1.7 billion kilowatts by the end of September, nearing the 3.6 billion kilowatt target for 2035 [1] - Renewable energy capacity reached 2.198 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar power accounting for 22% of total electricity generation in the first three quarters, reflecting a notable increase [1] Renewable Energy Development - In the first three quarters, wind and solar power generated 1.73 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, contributing to 22% of total electricity consumption, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Solar power saw remarkable growth, with an additional 24 million kilowatts of installed capacity, bringing the total to 112.5 million kilowatts, a 45.7% year-on-year increase [2] - The cumulative solar power generation reached 916.3 billion kilowatt-hours, a 44.1% increase year-on-year, with a utilization rate of 94.7% [2] Power Supply and Demand Management - The electricity system demonstrated resilience, with record-breaking electricity consumption in July and August, exceeding 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for two consecutive months [3] - A multi-dimensional supply guarantee system was established, with 17 million kilowatts of supportive power sources put into operation in the first half of the year [3] - New energy sources significantly contributed to peak load management, with an average output of over 50 million kilowatts during peak hours [3] Market Mechanisms and Innovations - By the end of September, electricity market transactions reached 4.92 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 63.4% of total electricity consumption, optimizing resource allocation through market signals [4] - Innovative mechanisms such as "peak pricing" incentivized power generation efficiency, with significant contributions from various regions to manage peak load pressures [4] Charging Infrastructure Development - The number of electric vehicle charging facilities reached 18.063 million, a 54.5% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in charging capacity during peak travel periods [5] - High-power charging facilities exceeding 250 kilowatts are being rapidly deployed, enabling quick charging capabilities [6] - A three-year action plan aims to increase the number of charging facilities to 28 million by the end of 2027, supporting over 80 million electric vehicles [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry, specifically focusing on the solar storage inverter sector [2]. Core Insights - The synergy of "source-network-load-storage" is identified as the future development direction of the solar storage industry, enhancing the stability of the power system and addressing the inherent volatility of renewable energy sources [6][64]. - China has announced a new round of national contribution targets, significantly promoting the large-scale construction of new energy storage systems, with a target of reaching over 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027 [6][49]. - The global solar storage market is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, driven by the transition to low-carbon energy systems and the increasing demand for renewable energy [6][86]. Summary by Sections 1. Synergy of "Source-Network-Load-Storage" - Continuous improvement in inverter performance and increasing localization of core components are noted, with the localization rate for power modules expected to reach 50% by 2024 [45]. - The Chinese government is actively supporting the sustainable development of the solar industry through various policies, including pricing, subsidies, and market mechanisms [49][50]. 2. Global Solar Storage Market Trends - The global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is projected to reach 630 GW in 2025 and 1,078 GW by 2030, with a significant increase in inverter exports [86][93]. - The domestic inverter export value reached $6.758 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.74% [95]. 3. Investment Strategies and Key Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic inverter companies that have a rich product matrix, a well-established global layout, and strong scale advantages [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.955 billion yuan, down 58.35% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, with a net profit of -2.363 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The gross margin turned positive in Q2 2025, indicating potential for continued improvement in profitability in the second half of the year [1][3] - The company has maintained a leading position in domestic distributed shipments and is making progress in overseas markets, achieving significant sales growth in regions such as Poland and Romania [3][4] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a high proportion of N-type silicon shipments and leading indicators in battery production efficiency [2][4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 139.104 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -2.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.574 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 47.24% [4][10] - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 41.650 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable decrease in subsequent years [4][10] - The projected net profit for 2025 to 2027 is -5.966 billion yuan, 2.939 billion yuan, and 5.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of -16.72, 33.94, and 19.55 [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful integration of a large-scale user-side energy storage project in Guangdong, showcasing advancements in energy management and optimization capabilities by CRRC Zhuzhou Institute [2][3][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The energy storage project in Guangdong Yangjiang has a capacity of 125MW/250MWh and is one of the largest user-side storage projects in the smelting industry in China [2][3]. - The project serves as a demonstration for high-energy-consuming enterprises to explore green energy usage paths and showcases CRRC Zhuzhou Institute's capabilities in system integration and engineering execution [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Features - The project consists of 25 energy storage units, each with a capacity of 5MW/10MWh, and utilizes CRRC's new generation Energy Management System (EMS) platform for optimized scheduling across multiple time scales [4][6]. - The EMS platform is built on a microservices architecture, allowing for high concurrency, flexible expansion, and easy maintenance, supporting real-time monitoring and intelligent energy dispatch [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The energy storage system is expected to optimize energy expenditure by approximately 16.74% annually, resulting in savings of over 58 million yuan [4][6]. - The project can participate in local grid frequency regulation and explore multiple revenue models, including peak-valley arbitrage and ancillary services [7]. Group 4: Future Prospects - CRRC Zhuzhou Institute is collaborating with power grid companies and partners to advance new energy consumption and virtual power plant models, paving the way for innovation in the energy storage sector [8][11]. - The successful integration of this project marks a significant milestone for CRRC in the energy storage field, with expectations for replicating similar successes across various industries [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Yangjiang Yichuan Metal User-side Energy Storage Power Station, developed by CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, represents a significant breakthrough in the energy storage sector, showcasing the company's capabilities in system integration and project implementation, while contributing to green energy solutions for high-energy-consuming enterprises [2][10]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yangjiang Yichuan Energy Storage Power Station has achieved full capacity grid connection with a capacity of 125MW/250MWh, marking it as one of the first large-scale user-side energy storage demonstration projects in Guangdong Province [2]. - The project is designed to create a new model for green energy consumption for high-energy enterprises, leveraging the material industry foundation in Yangjiang [4]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The energy storage station is equipped with CRRC Zhuzhou Institute's new generation EMS platform, which optimizes scheduling and power trading across multiple time scales, ensuring coordinated operation and dual guarantees of revenue and safety [6]. - The platform utilizes a microservice architecture, enabling unified management of multiple sites, second-level monitoring, and intelligent scheduling, which integrates deeply with BMS and PCS systems for revenue accounting and operational strategy optimization [6]. Group 3: Economic and Efficiency Benefits - The project is expected to optimize the annual energy consumption expenditure by 16.74%, resulting in over 58 million yuan in annual electricity savings, significantly enhancing energy utilization efficiency and safety [6]. - The energy management platform facilitates rapid response capabilities and supports various revenue models, including peak-valley arbitrage and ancillary services [7]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Future Prospects - The successful grid connection of the Yangjiang Yichuan Energy Storage Power Station not only demonstrates economic benefits but also establishes a replicable and promotable model for safety operation, industrial collaboration, and demonstration promotion [10]. - With CRRC Zhuzhou Institute's technological innovation, more reliable and economically viable energy storage solutions are expected to be implemented nationwide and globally, contributing to industrial green transformation and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [10].

Core Viewpoint - 京能国际 has reported significant growth in its financial performance and is adapting its business model to align with national policies promoting clean energy and asset management transformation [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total assets reached 105.627 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% from the beginning of the year [1]. - Total installed capacity was 13.692 million kilowatts, up 8.3% year-to-date [1]. - Revenue amounted to 4.086 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [1]. - Total profit was 448 million yuan, showing a growth of 3.2% compared to the previous year [1]. Strategic Initiatives - 京能国际 is pursuing three strategic tasks: - Innovating operational models to revitalize existing assets and promote project securitization [2]. - Seizing opportunities in the "green electricity" sector, particularly in high-yield projects in key regions [2]. - Optimizing business layout by increasing the proportion of wind, gas, and hydropower alongside existing solar projects, while expanding into overseas markets [2]. Operational Improvements - The company is focusing on enhancing operational quality through four main areas: - Strengthening safety management and cross-department collaboration to improve power generation and cost efficiency [3]. - Forming specialized teams to enhance power forecasting accuracy and maximize environmental rights value [3]. - Accelerating the REITs process and optimizing financial management to reduce overall financial costs [3]. - Implementing strict controls on development costs and exploring diverse income streams through innovative financial strategies [3]. Future Outlook - 京能国际 aims to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on value creation and collaborative success through technological innovation and business model optimization for sustainable development [3].