一、作为黄金标准的vix指数 二、822大涨的原因 2025年8月23日，上证指数大幅上涨1.45%，来到了3825.76点，突破了3800点大关。 不少投资者抱怨，牛市是不是走得太快了，最近一个周又涨了3.49%。这些投资者给慢牛和快牛下了一个十分直觉化的定义，指数上涨得快，就是快牛； 相反，指数上涨得慢就是慢牛。 然而，这种定义忽略了一个维度——上涨的合理性，如果增量信息能够大幅提升指数的内在价值，譬如，提升10%，即便是市场一天兑现相应的涨幅，这 种上涨也是合理的。 因此，我们不应该只关心上涨幅度本身，更应该关注上涨是不是由内在价值驱动，如果上涨是内在价值驱动，那么，上涨是慢牛的范畴；反之，上涨则是 快牛的范畴。 那么，如何判断一轮上涨是否由内在价值驱动呢？？主要观察vix指数的水平，如果vix指数的水平较低，上涨为内在价值驱动，属于慢牛范畴；相反，如 果vix指数的水平较高，上涨为情绪因素驱动，属于快牛范畴。 目前，vix指数已经上升到了20.92，虽然略高于20的警戒线，但是，波动率趋势上升的势头并不明显。 相比较而言，去年924的波动率水平更极端一些，最高升到了50.37，并且，波动率有十分明显的 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a rebound after a day of testing lows, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high at 3766.21, up 1.04% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11926.74, increasing by 0.89%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.23% to 2607.65 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the sixth consecutive day of trading over 2 trillion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (up 2.42%), Oil and Petrochemicals (up 2.36%), and Electronics (up 2.32%) [1][2] - Conversely, sectors such as Pharmaceuticals and Biology, Home Appliances, and Real Estate showed declines, with Pharmaceuticals down by 0.07% [1][2] - Concept indices like the Tonghuashun Fruit Index and AI Mobile showed strong performance, while sectors like Monkeypox Concept and Recombinant Protein faced declines [2][3] Future Outlook - The report indicates a stable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for orderly rotation and positive interaction among market sectors, which may support a steady upward trend in the market [3] - The release of interim reports is expected to lead to an increase in cash dividend proposals from listed companies, enhancing market value support [3] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Financials, and Consumer sectors [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline with the three major indices closing lower, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index at 3727.29 (-0.02%), Shenzhen Component Index at 11821.63 (-0.12%), and CSI 300 at 4223.37 (-0.38%) [2][4] - The market showed mixed performance with over 2900 stocks rising, and more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit up [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+3.48%), Communication (+1.87%), and Food & Beverage (+1.04%), while Non-bank Financials (-1.64%) and Defense & Military (-1.55%) lagged behind [3] - Notable concept stocks such as Huawei-related stocks and CPO hardware maintained strong performance, while sectors like Non-bank Financials and Coal showed weakness [4][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in the short term, supported by favorable macro policies and a shift in household wealth towards capital markets [6] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Financials, Public Utilities, and Pharmaceuticals [6] Policy Insights - The Chinese government emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro policies and stimulating domestic consumption to counter uncertainties in international circulation [5] - The continuous reallocation of household deposits is providing substantial incremental funding for the market, while expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are improving cross-border capital flows [6]

Group 1 - The report constructs a valuation scoring system to assess the price-performance ratio of convertible bond underlying stocks, focusing on quickly and accurately evaluating individual stock valuation levels while controlling for drawdown risks [1][9] - The valuation framework employs both vertical (relative to historical levels) and horizontal (relative to peers) analyses to position stocks in a two-dimensional space, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of their valuation [1][9] - The horizontal analysis identifies which underlying stocks have better valuation cost-effectiveness compared to others, using a set of primary and secondary indicators to filter out unsuitable metrics [1][10][11] Group 2 - The horizontal valuation framework aims to determine which convertible bonds (or underlying stocks) are relatively inexpensive at a given moment, addressing the challenge of cross-industry valuation comparisons [10][11] - The report identifies suitable primary indicators for various industries, categorizing them based on the adequacy of data points, stability across periods, and the dispersion of individual stock valuations [11][12][16] - The report highlights that the PE (3-year non-negative average) and PB indicators are widely applicable across industries, with the introduction of PE (3-year non-negative average) providing a more reliable alternative to traditional PE metrics [17][18] Group 3 - The vertical analysis framework assesses which underlying stocks have improved valuation cost-effectiveness compared to their historical levels, using data from June 2021 to the present [28][29] - The report finds that stocks with low vertical valuations tend to exhibit greater upward elasticity in bullish markets, with those above the 80% valuation threshold showing significantly lower average price increases [29][30] - The report identifies low-valued convertible bond targets worth attention, particularly in industries such as defense, basic chemicals, and construction decoration, which have shown high elasticity in the current market environment [34][36]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current positioning of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy industry allocation system, with a comprehensive allocation of 8.6% across various sectors, including Electronics (7.5%), Non-ferrous Metals (7.4%), and Banking (7.3) [1] - The report tracks the performance of various strategies, noting that the S2 sentiment tracking strategy achieved a weekly excess return of 3.3%, while the S1 industry profitability tracking strategy underperformed with an excess return of -0.1% [2][3] - The report identifies the top-performing sectors for the week as Machinery (5.4%), Non-ferrous Metals (4.4%), and National Defense Industry (4.2%), while the worst performers were Oil & Petrochemicals (-0.9%), Pharmaceuticals (-0.9%), and Comprehensive Finance (-0.6%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The average weekly return for the 30 CITIC first-level industries was 1.9%, with a one-month average return of 4.2% [10] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of weekly and monthly performance for each industry, indicating significant variations in returns across sectors [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [12][13] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include Retail Trade, National Defense Industry, and Media, all exceeding the 95% threshold [13][14] Strategy Performance - The report outlines the performance of various strategies, with the S4 long-term reversal strategy showing a significant excess return of 6.4% year-to-date [3][15] - The S3 macro style rotation strategy has a current excess return of 4.3%, indicating strong performance in the context of macroeconomic indicators [3][24] Sector Rankings - The report ranks the current high-prospect sectors based on profitability expectations, with Non-ferrous Metals, Communication, and Agriculture leading the rankings [16][19] - The sentiment tracking strategy (S2) identifies Machinery, Computer, and Textile as the top sectors based on implied sentiment indicators [19][20] Macro Indicators - The report highlights the top six industries favored by current macroeconomic indicators, which include Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, National Defense Industry, and Non-bank Financials [24][25]

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators show a slight increase to 3.25, maintaining a high level and a bullish outlook, although there is a need to monitor for potential turning points as scores show a slight decline during the week [9][12][30] - The price-volume consistency indicator remains elevated, indicating high levels of market activity, while the PCR combined with VIX has shifted from positive to negative, suggesting a change in market sentiment [12][23][24] - Total trading volume for the week showed a slight decline but remained strong, with daily trading volumes exceeding 1.6 trillion RMB on most days, indicating robust market activity [17][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that sectors with high trading congestion, such as machinery, defense, and non-ferrous metals, have seen significant price increases, but caution is advised due to potential valuation and sentiment corrections [30][34][36] - The report identifies that the small-cap growth style is currently favored, with the RSI model indicating a preference for growth stocks, although the 5-day RSI shows a rapid decline compared to the 20-day RSI, warranting further observation [30][39][41] - The report provides a detailed analysis of sector performance, with machinery, light industry, and defense showing the strongest short-term trends, particularly machinery scoring a perfect 100 [30][31][32]

Core Insights - A-share companies are increasingly announcing mid-term dividend plans alongside their 2025 semi-annual reports, with 48 out of 178 companies proposing cash dividends [1][3] Group 1: Dividend Announcements - China Mobile announced a mid-term dividend of HKD 2.75 per share, translating to approximately CNY 541.99 billion, reflecting a commitment to enhance shareholder value [1] - CATL reported a revenue of approximately CNY 1788.86 billion for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of about CNY 304.85 billion, marking a 33.33% year-on-year increase [1][2] - Oriental Yuhong plans to distribute CNY 9.25 per 10 shares, totaling around CNY 22.1 billion, despite a 40.16% decline in net profit [3] Group 2: Market Confidence - Many companies believe that mid-term dividends can convey confidence to the market, as seen in Oriental Yuhong's statement about sharing operational results with investors [3] - The cash dividends are intended to shorten the return cycle for investors and demonstrate the companies' commitment to their financial health and growth potential [3] Group 3: Implementation of Dividend Plans - Sujiao Technology announced a cash dividend of CNY 0.2 per 10 shares, with the record date set for August 11, 2025 [4] - Zhongpet Co. disclosed a cash dividend of CNY 2 per 10 shares, with the record date on August 13, 2025, maintaining a consistent distribution policy [4]

Group 1 - The investment atmosphere in Hong Kong is improving, with over 300,000 subscriptions for some new IPOs, and foreign capital participation in IPOs has increased from less than 20% to 28% compared to previous years [1] - Long-term investors, such as overseas pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, are showing increased interest in Hong Kong IPOs, leading to more stable post-IPO performance for many companies [1] - The competitive landscape in various industries is intense, but industry leaders with better capital, resources, and operational efficiency are expected to gain larger market shares through consolidation [1] Group 2 - Excluding SPAC listings, Hong Kong's IPO financing in the first half of the year reached $14.1 billion, surpassing the Nasdaq and NYSE [2] - Major IPOs like CATL raised HKD 41 billion, while other companies like Hengrui Medicine and Haitian Flavor & Fragrance also raised over HKD 10 billion, but the average scale of IPOs this year is still below the levels seen from 2019 to 2021 [2] - The current pipeline of companies applying for IPOs is not particularly large, suggesting a gradual increase in total fundraising rather than a sudden spike, which is viewed positively for market liquidity [2]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway reported a slight decline in Q2 operating profit and warned that high tariffs imposed by the U.S. government could negatively impact its business [1][8]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue for Berkshire was $92.515 billion, down from $93.653 billion in the same period last year [2]. - Excluding investment-related items, Q2 operating profit was $11.16 billion, lower than $11.6 billion year-over-year, primarily due to weak insurance underwriting profits [2]. - Currency fluctuations negatively impacted Berkshire, reducing after-tax operating profit by $877 million in Q2, compared to a gain of approximately $446 million in the same period last year due to a strong dollar [2]. Net Profit and Cash Flow - Berkshire's Q2 net profit was $12.37 billion, a significant drop from $30.3 billion in the same period last year, largely influenced by unrealized investment losses [4]. - Cash reserves remained high at $344.1 billion, slightly below the $347 billion at the end of March, providing ammunition for future acquisitions [5]. - The company has net sold stocks for the 11th consecutive quarter, selling approximately $6.92 billion in stocks while purchasing only $3.9 billion [5]. Investment Strategy - The fair value of Berkshire's top five holdings accounted for 67% of its portfolio, with major investments in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [5]. - Berkshire has not repurchased any shares in the first half of the year, maintaining a conservative approach to buybacks [5][6]. Impairment and Market Concerns - Berkshire significantly reduced the book value of its investment in Kraft Heinz, recording an impairment loss of $3.8 billion, bringing the holding value down to $8.4 billion [7]. - The company expressed concerns regarding the potential adverse effects of U.S. tariff policies on its operations and investments, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding international trade policies [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of mid-term cash dividends among listed companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange is increasing, with many companies announcing their mid-term dividend plans for 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [2][6]. Group 1: Mid-term Dividend Announcements - Weisheng Information plans to distribute a cash dividend of 122 million yuan, accounting for 40% of its net profit for the first half of 2025, marking its first mid-term dividend [2][3]. - WuXi AppTec has also announced a mid-term cash dividend of 3.5 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 1.03 billion yuan, following a significant increase in revenue and net profit [3][4]. - Dongpeng Beverage has proposed a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share, amounting to 1.3 billion yuan, continuing its trend of substantial mid-term dividends [4][7]. Group 2: Overall Dividend Trends - In 2023, 1,501 listed companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange distributed a total of 1.38 trillion yuan in cash dividends, indicating a robust dividend culture [2]. - The number of companies implementing mid-term dividends has surged, with 504 companies distributing over 580 billion yuan in 2024, representing a significant increase compared to previous years [6]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is encouraging companies to enhance their dividend policies, aiming to improve shareholder returns through various financial management tools [6][7]. Group 3: Notable Companies and Their Dividend Policies - Companies like East China Sea Group and Agricultural Bank of China have initiated mid-term dividends for the first time, while others like China Construction Bank have resumed mid-term dividends after several years [6]. - Companies such as Linglong Tire and Tian Shili have adopted a multi-tiered dividend strategy, distributing dividends multiple times within a year to reinforce investor confidence [6][7]. - The cumulative cash dividends of WuXi AppTec since its listing in 2018 have reached approximately 13 billion yuan, with a consistent payout ratio of around 30% of its net profit [4][5].