智通财经APP讯，新希望(000876.SZ)公告，公司2025年9月销售生猪139.42万头，环比变动4.22%，同比 变动16.92%。收入17.46亿元，环比变动1.39%，同比变动-23.82%。商品猪销售均价12.89元/公斤，环比 变动-4.80%，同比变动-31.47%，销售价格同比降幅较大主要是受国内生猪市场行情变化的影响。 ...

格隆汇10月9日丨新希望(000876.SZ)公布，公司2025年9月销售生猪139.42万头，环比变动4.22%，同比 变动16.92%。收入17.46亿元，环比变动1.39%，同比变动-23.82%。商品猪销售均价12.89元/公斤，环比 变动-4.80%，同比变动-31.47%，销售价格同比降幅较大主要是受国内生猪市场行情变化的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in average selling prices of live pigs in August has led to a decrease in sales revenue for several listed companies in the pig farming sector, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry. Company Summaries - New Hope reported sales of 1.3378 million pigs in August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.72%. However, revenue fell to 1.722 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.73%, primarily due to a significant drop in selling prices, which averaged 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.23% month-on-month and 32.74% year-on-year [1] - Dongrui Co. announced sales of 94,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 160 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.48%. The average selling price was 15.86 yuan/kg, down 2.02% month-on-month [1] - Wen's Co. reported sales of 3.2457 million pigs in August 2025, generating revenue of 4.825 billion yuan. The average selling price for live pigs was 13.90 yuan/kg, with year-on-year changes of 37.88% in sales volume but a decline of 17.70% in price [2] - Zhenghong Technology sold 16,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 22.8655 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase in volume of 3.46% but a revenue decrease of 12.12%. Year-on-year, sales volume increased by 63.31% and revenue by 21.14% [3] - Tianyu Bio sold 26,000 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 29.8423 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 50.83% in volume and 41.89% in revenue, but a year-on-year revenue decline of 53.32% [3] Industry Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets was 19.94 yuan/kg on August 29, 2025, down from 20.10 yuan/kg the previous week, indicating a continuous decline in pig prices for eight consecutive weeks [3] - Guotai Junan Futures noted that the increase in planned slaughter volumes by large groups and limited demand from smallholders has led to a supply pressure that is difficult to alleviate, with daily transactions falling short of expectations [3] - Guoxin Futures projected that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to increase in September, with a significant rise expected in October, suggesting that supply growth will outpace seasonal consumption increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported a decrease in revenue and sales prices for its hog sales in August 2025, primarily due to changes in the domestic hog market conditions [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.3378 million hogs in August 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [1] - Revenue from hog sales was 1.722 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.73% [1] Pricing Trends - The average selling price of hogs was 13.54 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.74% [1] - The significant year-on-year decline in selling prices was mainly influenced by fluctuations in the domestic hog market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot market for live pigs saw prices fluctuating. The futures market showed weak fluctuations. Next week (8.18 - 8.24), the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly, and may hit a new low this year. The price of the LH2509 futures contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract [1][2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review (8.11 - 8.17) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs fluctuated. The 20KG piglet price in Henan was 33.1 yuan/kg (last week: 35.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.88 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1611 yuan/head (last week: 1614 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The average slaughter weight was 124.03KG, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% [1] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live pig futures LH2509 contract showed weak fluctuations, with a high of 14030 yuan/ton, a low of 13800 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13825 yuan/ton (last week: 13930 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 55 yuan/ton (last week: - 50 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook (8.18 - 8.24) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The supply pressure in the second half of August is large, and the demand increment is limited. The spot price may hit a new low this year [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and the basis will gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was - 120 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 124.03KG (last week: 124.04KG). In June, the pork production was 529.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; the pork import was 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with possible repeated fluctuations. It is expected that the slaughter volume will first decrease and then increase in the short term, and the price will fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price declined, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers may reduce the supply at the beginning of the month, but the supply may resume later as they may slaughter pigs at a lower weight. The demand has slightly recovered in some areas, and the slaughterhouse operation rate has slightly increased, but high temperatures still suppress consumers' willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited increase. Overall, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm and are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased, and there were 3000 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 16 from last week [17]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg this week, down 0.58 yuan/kg from last week and 5.51% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 32.72 yuan/kg, down 1.14 yuan/kg from last week and 3.85% from last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of July 24, the national average pork price was 25.37 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of July 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, down 0.07 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In June, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased month - on - month, while that of small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight decreased [47]. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profit**: As of August 1, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 45.39 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 43.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 18.3 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.16 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.1 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.19 yuan/head [52]. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [53][57]. Substitute Products - **White - striped Chicken Price and Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of August 1, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.70 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg from last week [60]. Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 1, the price of soybean meal increased by 14.57 yuan/ton to 2977.71 yuan/ton, while the price of corn decreased by 5.09 yuan/ton to 2402.75 yuan/ton [66]. - **Feed Index and Spot Price**: As of August 1, the DCE pig feed cost index closed at 935.61, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [70]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, an increase of 175,600 tons month - on - month [75]. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operation**: In the 31st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 26.83%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the frozen - product storage rate increased slightly [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses decreased by 6.53% month - on - month. In June, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Live Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. In the short - term, the supply is still tight as the mid - month increase in large - scale farm slaughter is slow, and smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. However, there is supply pressure in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. [6][10] - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress pork purchasing, and with schools on holiday, the terminal sales are slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has declined continuously but is higher than last year. Overall, it's the off - season for consumption, and demand is weakening steadily. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening are key factors affecting short - term market conditions. [6] - Currently, tight supply supports a strong price oscillation, but the increase may slow down as the mid - month slaughter volume may recover. In the medium - term, the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the price upside. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. [6][10] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply is tight, medium - term has supply pressure; demand is in the off - season and weakening. The slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry are key short - term factors. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Interval trading or 9 - 1 positive spread trading. [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The futures price increased slightly this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. As of July 11, the net short position was 16,877 lots, an increase of 6,313 lots from last week, and there were 447 futures warrants, a decrease of 3 from last week. [10][12][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg from last week but an increase of 4.48% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week but a decrease of 0.32% from last month. [27] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national average pork price was 25.35 yuan/kg in the week of July 3, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. [31] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 2, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.21, an increase of 0.08 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point. [36] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the inventory was 40.42 million heads at the end of May, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.15% year - on - year increase, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. Mysteel data also showed an increase in both large - scale farms and small - scale farms. [41] - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a decrease of 10.12 million heads from the end of the previous quarter but an increase of 8.81 million heads year - on - year. In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small - scale farms increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. [44] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid live pigs this week was 123.50 kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 kg from last week. [49] 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week. [54] - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of laying hens was - 0.69 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.11 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.92 yuan/head. [54] 3.3.3. Domestic Market - In the first five months of 2025, China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a 4.65% year - on - year increase, and it was at a historically low level during the same period. [55][59] 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of July 10, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from last week. [62] 3.3.5. Feed - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 11, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,914.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. [68] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 11, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 935.32, a 1.63% decrease from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. [71] - **Feed Production**: In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons month - on - month. [76] 3.3.6. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year. [80] 3.3.7. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 28th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from last week but 5.48 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.46%, an increase of 3% from last week. [83] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering**: In May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a 4.52% increase from the previous month. The national catering revenue in May was 457.82 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [88] 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided. [89][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term, leading to a strong price fluctuation. The main contract of live pig futures rose 2.14% this week. However, in the medium - term, there is still supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, and the key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of second - fattening. If the slaughter rhythm recovers later, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the upside space of prices. The recommended strategy is range trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, with the main contract rising 2.14% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply is tight due to the scale farms' price - holding and reduced slaughter at the beginning of the month, and the farmers' reluctance to sell. The average slaughter weight has decreased. As the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows and the price of live pigs rises, the slaughter rhythm is expected to recover. In the medium - term, there is supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, with high temperatures suppressing people's willingness to buy pork, slow terminal sales, and a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, although it is higher than last year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract rising 2.14% [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 1168 lots to 10564 lots compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 450, a decrease of 300 compared with last week [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the July contract of live pigs was 1350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the September contract was 895 yuan/ton [20]. - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average price of live pigs in the national market this week was 14.55 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last week and 2.03% compared with last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week and a decrease of 10.78% compared with last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of June 26, the national market price of pork was 25.20 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 11, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, a decrease of 0.17 compared with the previous week, and it was lower than the break - even point [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of May was 40420000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 40000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms in May increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the first quarter, the inventory of live pigs increased year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 2.38% month - on - month and increased by 12.35% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.48% month - on - month and increased by 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of externally -三元 live pigs this week was 123.52 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg compared with last week [47]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit and Other Aspects - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 26.26 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 105.45 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.58 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.17 yuan/head compared with last week [52]. - **Pork Import**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%, at a historically low level [53][57]. - **Substitute and Feed**: As of July 4, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of June 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of July 4, the spot price of soybean meal was 2916.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.43 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 3, the price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 4, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index decreased by 0.77% compared with last week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of May 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2762100 tons, an increase of 98100 tons compared with the previous month [61][66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month [77]. 3.3.3. Downstream - **Slaughter and Demand**: In the 27th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 26.50%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points compared with last week and 10.32 percentage points higher than last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 14.46%, a decrease of 2.95% compared with last week. As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, an increase of 4.52% compared with last month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [80][85]. 3.4. Live Pig Stocks - The report mentioned the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data was provided [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has seen a slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end, and the average slaughter weight has decreased, leading to a reduction in supply. However, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded, but high temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, the terminal sales speed has slowed down, and the rebound space is limited, with a possible subsequent decline. Short - term supply reduction, along with policies discouraging secondary fattening and state reserve purchases boosting market sentiment, support a short - term rebound in hog futures prices. But the expected increase in medium - term supply and weak demand limit the upside of spot prices, which may drag down the futures price increase. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Hog prices rebounded, with the main contract rising 0.76% weekly [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply reduction and policy support lead to a short - term futures price rebound, but medium - term supply increase and weak demand limit the upside of spot and futures prices. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporary wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Futures rebounded, with the main contract rising 0.76% weekly [9]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position increased, and there were 750 futures warehouse receipts [11][15]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average hog price was 14.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.9% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.14 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week and 16.04% from last month [26]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On June 12, the national average pork price was 25.26 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of June 11, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, down 0.17 from the previous week, below the break - even point [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In April 2025, the national sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 10000 from the previous month, up 1.31% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In May, the sow inventory of large - scale farms increased by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and that of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Hog Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national hog inventory was 417310000 heads, down 10120000 from the previous quarter but up 8810000 year - on - year. In May, the hog inventory of large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and that of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Hog Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the hog slaughter volume of large - scale farms was 1059860000 heads, down 2.38% month - on - month but up 12.35% year - on - year, and that of small and medium - sized farms was 48960000 heads, down 1.48% month - on - month but up 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight was 123.78 kg, down 0.18 kg from last week [47]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of June 20, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 186.79 yuan/head, with a 19.4 - yuan increase compared to the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 19.4 yuan/head, with a 22.3 - yuan increase compared to the previous week. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, with a 0.08 - yuan reduction in loss compared to the previous week [52]. - **Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, up 4.65% year - on - year, at a historically low level [57]. - **Substitute Products**: As of June 20, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of June 19, the average national price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.22 yuan/kg, a 0.01 - yuan decrease from last week [60]. - **Feed Situation**: As of June 20, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.14 yuan/ton, up 47.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2417.06 yuan/ton, up 11.37 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DCE hog feed cost index closed at 971.29, up 0.99% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 2762100 tons, up 98100 tons from the previous month [66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with a narrowing decline [77]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 25th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 27.97%, up 0.75 percentage points from last week and 17.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.35%, up 0.01% from last week [80]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30770000 heads, up 0.46% from the previous month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year [85]. 3.7 Hog - related Stocks - Mentioned stocks include Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [86].