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生猪周报:出栏体重略增,猪价震荡偏弱-20250929
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-09-29 01:33
| | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | 2025-09-29 | | | | 分享 | | | | 作者: | | | 【出栏体重略增 猪价震荡偏弱】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪分析师 | | | 1、9月26日,生猪注册仓单298手; | | | | 2、涌益样本养殖企业8月计划出栏完成率100.04%,9月环比计划+3.92%;整体看9月日均出栏压力明显大于8月; | 期货从业资格:F03086321 | | | 3、本周生猪主力合约(LH2511)震荡偏弱调整,收盘于12575元/吨,持仓量约8.5万手。 | 交易咨询资格:Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,四季度生猪供应量或维持稳定。仔猪数据看,2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,下 | 邮箱地址: | | | 半年消费比上半年好; | shixy@hrrdqh.com | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡走强; | 联系方式: | | | 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①现 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250926
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:24
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 26 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,25 日生猪主力 2511 合约平开后冲 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:31
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 23 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,22 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅高开后冲高回落震荡走跌,尾盘收 阴,最高 12920 元/吨,最低 12780 元/吨,收盘报 1 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250919
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:33
Report Information - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, in September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, a 3.92% increase from the actual output in August, and the daily average increase was 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. In the long term, the pig slaughter before the Spring Festival may still show a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and the current second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The overall supply - demand is loose, and the price is still weak. In the futures market, the supply of pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. Although the supply - demand margin of the 2511 and 2601 contracts may improve, they are mainly weak due to the current large spot supply pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,830 yuan/ton, a 1.72% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 13,438 lots to 247,934 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 18th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - As of September 11, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 54 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 45 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.8 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 63 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 11, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 394 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [13] - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 11, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin [13] - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 13.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week [13] - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 11, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.40%, a 0.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.15 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated between 31.20% and 31.71% [13] - **National Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of September 11, the national average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.32 kg, a 0.09 - kg increase from the previous week, a 0.07% increase month - on - month, and a 2.36 - kg increase from the same period last year, a 1.84% increase year - on - year [13]
生猪周报:出栏体重略增猪价震荡偏弱-20250915
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-09-15 05:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].
建信期货生猪日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 #summary# 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 每日报告 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,10 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅低开后震荡走高,尾盘收阳,最高 13400 元/吨,最低 13210 元/吨,收盘报 13315 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:43
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply pressure of live pigs eases slightly at the beginning of the month, and the spot price fluctuates and rebounds. The 2511 and 2601 futures contracts are in the peak demand season, with supply increasing slightly and demand increasing relatively more. The current spot price stabilizes and rebounds, and the short - term downside space may be relatively limited, mainly following the spot price to fluctuate and rebound [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: On the 3rd, the main 2511 contract of live pig futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated narrowly and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 384 lots to 180,527 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 13.97 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Comments**: In September, the slaughter volume of live pigs may continue to increase, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, with still existing slaughter pressure. However, since August, the overall slaughter enthusiasm has been strong, the rhythm has been fast, there has been overselling in some areas, and the slaughter weight has declined. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs may still maintain a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and there is an expectation of low - price second - fattening entry. At the beginning of September, universities in various regions started school one after another, and the centralized procurement of canteens at the beginning of the month boosted the market. In addition, the weather continued to cool in some areas, and the terminal consumption of residents may increase. The orders of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased, the slaughter progress was relatively fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased. On September 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 149,800 heads, an increase of 12,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 80,000 heads from a week ago [9] 2. Industry News - As of August 21st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 57.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10] 3. Data Overview - On August 21st, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 2.54%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 1.29% [19] - The planned slaughter volume of live pigs of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July, with a significant increase in slaughter volume [19] - As of the week of August 21st, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [19]
建信期货生猪日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:40
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the terminal and second - fattening demand may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a potential low - level rebound in spot pig prices. The near - month 2509 futures contract may follow the spot price with a small rebound at the bottom. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a small increase in pig supply and a relatively large increase in demand. Along with factors like pork stockpiling, initiatives for high - quality development, and strengthened environmental protection, the medium - to - long - term pig prices are expected to rebound [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 26th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened lower, then fluctuated upwards and closed with a positive candle. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,305 lots to 181,393 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost remains low, increasing the expectation of second - fattening at low prices, which may reduce the slaughter pressure of farmers. The current demand is still in the seasonal off - season, with terminal demand remaining at a low level on a month - on - month basis. As students start school in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually pick up. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughtering rate and volume have increased slightly. On August 26th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,300 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day and the same as that of a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high, with second - fattened pigs being continuously released, so the slaughter pressure still exists. The average slaughter weight has slightly declined, and the weight pressure on farmers has weakened in the second half of the month. In the long run, pig slaughter may continue to increase slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided, only figure information about breeding profit, cost, etc. 3. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of August 21st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 57.6 yuan/head, also a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [14]. - **Piglet Price**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 21st was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 1.29% [14]. - **Planned Slaughter Volume**: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July [14]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of August 21st, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [14].
建信期货生猪日报-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:46
Report Overview - Industry: Pig farming - Date: August 26, 2025 - Report Type: Daily report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the cost of fattening remains low. The expectation of second - round fattening at low prices has increased, which may reduce the pressure on farmers to sell pigs. Although current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with the start of school - related stocking in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually recover. - On the supply side, the planned pig出栏 volume in August is expected to increase significantly compared to July, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens remains high. However, the weight pressure on farmers has decreased recently. In the long term, pig出栏 is likely to maintain a slight increase. - Overall, in the spot market, demand from terminals and second - round fattening may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a possible low - level rebound in spot prices. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract may follow the spot price with a small - scale bottom - rebound. Contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak - demand season, and with a relatively larger increase in demand compared to supply, along with positive factors such as pork storage, high - quality development initiatives, and environmental protection efforts, the prices are expected to rebound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 25th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 13,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from last Friday. The total open interest of the index decreased by 3,810 lots to 182,698 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 25th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses on August 25th was 140,800 heads, down 1,100 heads from the previous day but up 400 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short - term, spot prices may rebound from lows, and near - month futures contracts may follow the spot price. Peak - demand season contracts are expected to rebound due to relatively larger demand growth [9]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of August 15th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 36 yuan/head. The average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 52 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - **Price and Sales Volume**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15th was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week. The planned pig出栏 volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from the actual出栏 volume in July [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of the slaughter sample in the week of August 15th was 1.6335 million heads, a 1.88% increase from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume was 138,446 heads, a 0.96% increase from the previous week [14]. - **Average Weight**: As of the week of August 15th, the average weight of nationwide pig出栏 was 127.82 kg, a 0.02% increase from the previous week and a 1.31% increase from the same period last year [14].
建信期货生猪日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, so the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. [9] - In the short - term, the near - month 2509 futures contract of pigs will mainly fluctuate weakly following the spot price. In the long - term, the supply of pigs will increase slightly, while the 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and their prices may fluctuate strongly. Policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened regional environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices. [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 12th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,140 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,230 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,487 lots to 175,404 lots. [8] - Spot: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.69 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] Pig Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 138,300 heads, 600 heads less than the previous day and 2,100 heads more than a week ago. [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase from the actual slaughter volume in July. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side was high, and the slaughter progress was fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remained high, and there were still secondary - fattened pigs to be released, so the slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuated slightly. [9] Group 5: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. Group 6: Data Overview - As of August 7, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/head. [14] - In the week of August 7, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week. [14] - As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 6.71%. [14] - The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase, with a significant increase in slaughter volume. [14] - As of the week of August 7, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. [14]