白糖产业日报 2025-09-25 糖预计微幅增产，现货价格稳中走弱。粤西产区受台风影响迎来大风大雨影响，但考虑对甘蔗影响不及上 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 年台风，短期市场情绪存在修复，关注上方压力。操作上，建议观望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5485 | -12 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 431349 | -7657 482 ...

白糖产业日报 2025-09-18 国累计销售食糖999.98万吨，同比增加113.88万吨，累计销糖率89.59%，同比加快0.65个百分点。工业库 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 存116.23万吨，同比增加6.01万吨。目前中秋备货基本结束，北方糖厂即将开榨，短期无明显利好驱动， 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 预计低位震荡。操作上，建议观望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1][2] Core View - Internationally, the expiration delivery volume of the October white sugar contract on the ICE was 260,750 tons, with 200,000 tons from the UAE, 36,950 tons from India, and 5,000 tons from China. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons. Currently, the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling is basically over, and northern sugar mills are about to start production. With no obvious short - term positive drivers, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position was 388,194 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 10,988, a decrease of 280; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,232 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; in Nanning, it was 5,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.78%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 9.81%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.73%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.3%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the central - southern region of Brazil, the average sugar cane yield per unit area decreased by 8% year - on - year as of August this crushing season. The ICE raw sugar futures fell on Tuesday due to concerns that India's sugar exports might exceed expectations. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on the ICE closed down 0.10 cents, or 0.8%, at 15.90 cents per pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year-on-year increase of 0.65 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6,010 tons. The downstream is in the double - festival stocking stage, and it is expected that rigid demand will support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract position was 385,623 lots, an increase of 4,016 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 11,268, a decrease of 57; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 59,144 lots, a decrease of 3,792 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,865 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), 5,890 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5,970 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 85.59%, an increase of 1 percentage point. The monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar was 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 222 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.39%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; that of put options was 8.43%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 5.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.28%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. The long position was 170,080 lots, a decrease of 14,220 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 309,690 lots, an increase of 39,585 lots from the previous week. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of the year. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on ICE rose 0.21 cents, or 1.30%, to settle at 16.0 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are under pressure due to the good production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and falling oil prices, resulting in a weak downward adjustment of raw sugar prices. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. The demand side has备货 demand in the food and beverage industry due to hot summer weather, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. The inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. Overall, the weak trend of the outer market drags down the domestic sugar futures price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is mainly weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 172,520 lots, a decrease of 12,539 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 18,802, a decrease of 458; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,036 lots, a decrease of 6371 lots. The estimated import and processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4433 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4508 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5630 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; in Nanning is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou is 6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 335.9 million tons, an increase of 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 1373 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.64%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.64%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.36%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July in Guangxi, the single - month sugar sales volume was 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales volume in Guangxi was 5.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons; the sales rate was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. On Tuesday, the October ICE raw sugar contract closed down 0.98%. On Wednesday, the sugar 2509 contract closed down 0.42% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the rainy season has led to a positive supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries, causing a bearish supply expectation over the raw sugar market. However, lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support, with prices hovering at low levels in the short term [2]. - Domestically, there is a divergence in price strength between domestic and foreign markets. The profit window for out - of - quota imports has opened, leading to a significant increase in imports in June, which suppresses sugar prices. On the demand side, the hot summer weather boosts the demand for food and beverage inventory and seasonal consumption of cold drinks, providing some support [2]. - Overall, the slowdown of the decline in the external market weakens its drag on domestic prices. The peak domestic demand season boosts the sugar futures price, but the increase in imports and the global supply surplus expectation limit the upside potential. The price will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 310,650 lots, down 14,181 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 19,746, down 404; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 947 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4458 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 5662 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4509 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 5729 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The spot prices in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5915 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1502 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 298 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1451 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 231 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.83%, down 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.82%, down 0.41 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.01%, up 0.41 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.89%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 3.17573456 million tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year. On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract rose 0.92%, and the sugar 2509 contract rose 0.17% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the monsoon season brings a good supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries, with a loose supply expectation suppressing raw sugar prices. However, Coca - Cola's switch to using sucrose and a significant year - on - year increase in China's raw sugar imports bring some support from the demand side, causing short - term prices to hover at low levels. - Domestically, there is a divergence in the strength of internal and external prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure is released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, which suppresses sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is recovering, the performance of sugar futures prices is stronger than that of the external market, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the overall trend is regarded as volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,839 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 13 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 337,153 lots, with an increase of 7,565 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 21,437, a decrease of 40; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,908 lots, an increase of 6,702 lots. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,606 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.16%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 6.16%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.25%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to traders, from January 20th to mid - July this year, India's sugar exports were around 700,000 tons. - Internationally, the monsoon season has come, and the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good. The expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, Coca - Cola's switch to using sucrose and a significant year - on - year increase in China's raw sugar imports bring some support from the demand side. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent domestic sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but due to rising domestic demand, they perform better than the international market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5828 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 321,770 lots, up 8,938 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,857, down 432. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -14,462 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,606 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,855 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 1,486 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,356 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 275 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 107 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.51%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In June, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [2]. - Internationally, with the monsoon season coming, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support and limiting short - term decline [2]. - From the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The sugar production in the central - southern region was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - According to Brazilian foreign trade data, Brazil exported 1.36992641 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Domestic white sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. Later, supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract position is 312,832 lots, down 4,282 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts is 22,289, down 313; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -19,210 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,414 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,543 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,605 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,774 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly export volume of sugar from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,561 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,432 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 370 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 201 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.47%, up 0.2 percentage points; that of put options is 7.47%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of white sugar is 6.62%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.53%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Pakistan cancelled a large - scale sugar import tender and submitted a revised tender to import 50,000 tons of sugar [2] - In the international market, the rainy season in Asia makes the supply outlook good, suppressing raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support [2] Data from Brazil - In the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 12.86%; the sugar production was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the three - year average [2] - In the first two weeks of July, Brazil exported 1,369,926.41 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar supply is expected to be loose due to the good supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season and the increase in Brazilian exports, which suppresses raw sugar prices. However, Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the year - on - year decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June provide short - term support for raw sugar [2]. - In the domestic market, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and international markets. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, which will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. On the demand side, the peak summer consumption season and the restocking demand in the food and beverage industry, along with the recovery of seasonal consumption such as cold drinks, provide some support for prices. Overall, the domestic sugar price has been fluctuating following raw sugar, but due to the recovery of domestic demand, it has performed stronger than the international market. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to more volatile prices. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 298,087 lots, an increase of 10,840 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,934, a decrease of 53. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,947 lots, an increase of 10,763 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,498 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 470 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 6,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons. The monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.59%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.6%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.73%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, up from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.6855 million tons, up from 3.2059 million tons the previous week [2].