白糖市场供应压力主导，需求转弱加剧震荡 --白糖周报2025年9月22-26日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 【现货市场】柳州现货价周跌1.2%至5760元/吨，基差收窄23.58%至282元/吨，反 映现货情绪偏弱。 | 策略及风险提示 预计未来1-2周 白糖期价将维持 | | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖 | 【期货市场】主力合约周度震荡收于5478元/吨，持仓量环比下降5.07%至42.7万 手，波动率收窄。 【供应方面】巴西8月下半月产量大增，新榨季预期增产5.7%至4210万吨，国内进 口糖浆持续增量。 【需求方面】传统消费旺季临近尾声，现货成交清淡，柳州报价周内下调10-50元 /吨。 | 5450-5550元区 间弱势震荡，建 议关注区间突破 信号。 风险提示：巴西 新榨季产量超预 | | | 【进口出口】1-8月糖浆进口同比减少71.67万吨，但配额外利润环比下降17.35% | 期增长5.7%加剧 | | | 至381元/吨。 | | | | 【成 ...

规避长假风险，郑糖低位震荡 中泰期货白糖市场周度报告 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证 券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 0 2 5 -9 -2 8 本周国内外糖价整体情况汇总 | | | 上 周 | 本 周 | 环 比 | 下周预期 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ICE原糖主连 | 16 18 . | 16 35 . | 1 05% . | 震荡偏弱 | 国际糖价走势震荡 | | | ICE白糖主连 郑糖主连 | 456 3 . 5461 | 459 9 . 5478 | 0 79% . 0 31% | 震荡偏弱 震荡偏弱 | 承压运行 供给压 ， 力影响 | | | 巴西加工糖成本 (50%) | 5507 | 5604 | . 1 76% . | 震荡偏弱 | | | | 巴西加工糖成本 (15%) | 4327 | 4401 | 1 72% . | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is accelerating, with expectations of increased yields from Thailand and India, while domestic inventory remains low but is expected to rise due to imports and new sugar supply from northern regions [3][4]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In the second week of September 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar output reached 1.5317 million tons, a significant decrease from 3.8795 million tons in September of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 153,200 tons, down 17.09% year-on-year [1]. - An institutional survey indicates that sugar production in Brazil's key central-south region is expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons in the latter half of August, with cane crushing expected to rise by 9.5% year-on-year to 49.5 million tons [4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Conditions - The current spot price for sugar in Guangxi is 5,765 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan per ton, while major processing factories are quoting prices between 5,950 and 6,090 yuan per ton, with only Guangdong Jinling raising prices by 10 yuan [1]. - As of September 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,325, a decrease of 280 from the previous trading day [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The domestic sugar inventory remains relatively low, but there is an expectation of increased imports before October, alongside the gradual supply of new sugar from northern regions as they begin crushing [3]. - Despite lower sales data in August compared to previous years, the cumulative sales of sugar reached 9.9998 million tons by the end of August 2025, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 89.59%, up 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [4].

GUOLIAN F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 徐亚光 从业资格证号：F03093235 投资咨询证号：Z0017169 白糖周报 反弹空间有限 维持空头趋势 目录 CONTENTS | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度核心要点及策略 | 03 | 糖市周内要闻 | 05 | | 03 | | | | | 糖市相关数据 | 08 | | | 2 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度核心要点及策略 3 白糖核心要点及策略 | 因素 | 价格 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年7月份我国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加31.82万吨。2025年1-7月份我国进口食糖177.78万吨，同比增 加5.39万吨，增幅3.12%。不过加工糖和国产糖错峰供应，一定程度上缓解了集中上市带来的冲击，使得市场供需节奏更加平稳，持续关 | | 供应 | 向下 | 注进口糖到港情况。2025年7月我国进口糖浆和白砂糖预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计15.97万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [4] - During the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period, with diversified supply and intensified competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar, the sugar market is expected to remain range - bound, but risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations should be watched [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Spot Prices - In Guangxi Nanning warehouse, the spot price per ton of sugar is 5980 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 416 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Kunming, the spot price is 5845 yuan, down 5 yuan, with a basis of 381 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 21 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Dali, the spot price is 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 286 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Shandong Rizhao, the spot price is 6030 yuan, down 20 yuan, with a basis of 366 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 6 yuan [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Prices - SR09 futures price is 5564 yuan, down 26 yuan, and the spread between SR09 and SR01 is 31 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - SR01 futures price is 5533 yuan, down 29 yuan [4] International Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the Chinese yuan is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee to the Chinese yuan is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar futures is 16.05, unchanged; the price of London white sugar futures is 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil futures is 67.39, unchanged [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international production, consumption, import data, and price trends. It also mentions the expected supply shortage in the 25/26 global sugar season and the anticipated decline in sugar yield and increase in production costs in Guangxi for the 25/26 season [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.05 cents/pound, down 0.09; the mainstream spot price is 5930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5562 yuan/ton, down 37 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 16; the 15 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 9; the mainstream spot basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 37 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **International**: Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil exported 3.59 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1]. - **Domestic**: CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of May 25, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.7%. As of July 25, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [1][2]. International Market - ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. - As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. - ISMA/NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the 24/25 season. - OCSB data showed that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market has shown a strong trend recently, trading on the low carry - over inventory of domestic sugar and the expected reduction in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. The market is less responsive to the increase in imported sugar and syrup in July. The downward pressure on the market is insufficient, and it may trade on the reduction in production in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production in India and Thailand in the future. In the short term, SR2601 shows strong momentum and may have a significant - scale market trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Domestic Market - Spot quotes: The platform quote of intermediaries in Nanning is 6,000 yuan/ton, and the quote of intermediaries in Kunming is 5,770 - 5,940 yuan/ton. In July, China imported 744,300 tons of sugar, a month - on - month increase of 75.29% and a year - on - year increase of 76.44%, with 644,400 tons from Brazil. In July, China imported 159,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons but a continued month - on - month increase, reaching a new high for the year [3]. International Market - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures has maintained a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. In Brazil, due to continuous drought, the sugar content of sugarcane is at a historically low level, and the sugar - making ratio remains high because the ethanol - to - sugar price ratio is low. In India, although local sources expect a significant increase in production, meteorological monitoring shows that the cumulative rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu is low, and the final production may be lower than expected [4]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread Futures - As of August 25, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of various sugar futures contracts are provided, such as SR01 at 5,670 yuan with a 0% change, SR03 at 5,648 yuan with a 0% change, etc. The price spreads between different contracts are also given, like SR01 - 05 at 39 yuan with no change [5]. Spot - As of August 22, 2025, the spot prices and price changes in different regions are presented, including Nanning at 5,960 yuan with no change, and the price spreads between regions, such as the Nanning - Liuzhou spread at 10 yuan with no change [6]. Basis - As of August 22, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning, Kunming and different futures contracts are provided, for example, the Nanning - SR01 basis is 300 yuan with a decrease of 16 yuan [7]. Other Information - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat export data shows that in the first week of August, 1.094 million tons of sugar were exported, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data shows that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the overseas market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou white sugar futures oscillates and rebounds, with the center of gravity slightly moving up. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5700 [5][9]. - The long - term factors include positive aspects such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the supply surplus in the new year [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: As of the end of July in the current sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, and the basis is 354 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Fundamental Data**: - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons, StoneX has a revised surplus of 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9]. - According to the rural department, in the 25/26 season, the sugar - cane planting area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, the sugar - cane yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Position Data**: The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5].

Report Title - "Sugar Weekly Report" [1] Report Core View - The 01 contract of sugar has rebounded as expected and is expected to have further upward space. The current price of the 01 contract has a large discount, and the futures price will first repair part of the discount upwards. The sugar fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, and there is still further upward momentum [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: China's sugar imports in June 2025 reached 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.71% and a year - on - year increase of 1434.86%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7%. The time of import volume arrival is delayed, and the subsequent pressure is still high, but the staggered supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar eases the impact [10]. - **Demand**: The price of processed sugar has gradually stabilized, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up, accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas, and the overall spot trading is fair [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. The shipping volume from Brazil in July is low, and the arrival after August is expected to be lower than expected, so the pressure on processed sugar is not large [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the registered sugar warehouse receipts were 17,104, with 0 valid forecasts, a total of 17,104, compared with 18,545 last week [10]. - **Basis**: The basis is upward. The spot prices in various regions are stable, and the recent linkage between futures and spot prices has strengthened, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up and accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas [10]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil is about 5,578 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat [10]. - **Macro**: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern, and there are expectations of more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September [10]. 02 Sugar Market News This Week - **Brazil**: It is estimated that the sugarcane planting area in 2025 will be 9.241643 million hectares, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.8% increase from the previous year. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.085205 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate but a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production decreased by 9.22% year - on - year [15]. - **India**: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons, and the total planting area is estimated to be about 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season [16]. 03 Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: In the 2024 - 2025 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons and a growth rate of 12.03% [20]. - **Domestic Sales**: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,520 tons and a growth rate of 7.34%. The cumulative sales rate was 74.11%, a slowdown of 2.54 percentage points year - on - year. The cumulative sales of sugar reached 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons and a growth rate of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, an acceleration of 6.52 percentage points year - on - year [24][27]. - **Domestic Substitute Imports**: In June 2025, the total imports of domestic substitute syrups and premixes were 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [34]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost decreased slightly this week [38]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The number of warehouse receipts has declined from a high level. As of August 15, the total number of registered warehouse receipts was 17,104 [42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International factors such as good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and a weak US employment report have put pressure on raw sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the extra - quota profit window has released import pressure. Although the demand side has some support due to the hot summer and the need for food and beverage industries to stock up, overall, the weakening of the outer - market price drags down the domestic sugar price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is a weak and volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main contract position is 205,423 hands, down 25,642 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 19,373 sheets, down 70 sheets; the import processing estimated price for Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4466 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; for Thai sugar (within quota) is 4542 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the import estimated price for Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) and Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) are both down 18 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning is 6030 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6080 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly Brazilian sugar export volume is 335.9 million tons, up 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.22%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15% year - on - year to 341 million tons; the Pakistani government has ordered the import of 200,000 tons of sugar to stabilize domestic prices and relieve the burden on consumers [2].