白酒大涨，后市如何演绎 20260129 摘要 较大影响。 如何看待白酒行业估值？ 白酒行业估值需考虑其周期性及市场反应。目前头部企业在 2026 年的指引显 示希望实现增长或尽量减少下滑。这可能导致白酒价格低于预期，并延长出清 周期。然而茅台表现出强大的价格弹性，其批价跌破 1,600 元后动销加速，这 说明其价格已触及居民可支配收入能支撑的位置。此外，"爱茅台"现象显示 线上低价茅台销售带动线下销售提升，对公司量的增长有巨大帮助，实现了渗 透率快速提升。因此，在春节前后批价压力可能会小于预期。 如何把握未来白酒投资节奏？ 居民财富受限显著影响中高端白酒消费，房地产市场企稳或上涨对白酒 行业构成利好，因行业增长主要依赖价格而非销量。 白酒周期自 2021 年初下跌，为历史最长，跌幅近 60%。2025 年三季 度报表负增长 18%，动销大幅下降，但降幅趋缓，报表端出清是关键。 头部白酒企业 2026 年指引显示增长或减少下滑，或致价格低于预期， 延长出清周期。茅台批价跌破 1,600 元后动销加速，线上低价带动线下 销售，春节前后批价压力或小于预期。 白酒投资需关注报表端出清和批价见底。批价阴跌对股价影响减 ...

公募基金2025年四季报披露收官，唯一跟踪白酒指数的招商中证白酒指数基金（以下简称白酒基金）也交出了一份"亏损却跑赢"的成绩单——该基金去年四 季度A类份额、C类份额净值均下跌约9.5%，不过跑赢了同期业绩比较基准。 从重仓配置来看，贵州茅台重回该基金第一大重仓股。此外，申赎情况方面，基金投资者对白酒基金的态度则呈现A类被赎回、C类获加仓的鲜明分化。 这份充满反差的四季报背后，是白酒行业消费复苏不及预期的现实压力，还是头部企业的长期投资价值仍被看好？ 贵州茅台重回白酒基金第一大重仓股 白酒基金2025年四季报显示，报告期内，基金A类份额净值增长率为-9.50%，C类为-9.53%，同期业绩比较基准收益率为-9.78%，两者分别跑赢基准0.28个百 分点、0.25个百分点，跟踪误差控制在基金合同约定范围内。 拉长时间看，过去一年基金A类份额、C类份额净值增长率分别为-12.63%、-12.72%，依次跑赢基准2.68个百分点、2.59个百分点。 | 阶段 | 份额净值增 | 份额净值增 | 业绩比较基 | 业绩比较基 | 1-3 | 2-4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of the China Securities White Wine Index Fund, which experienced a decline in net value but outperformed its benchmark during the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a complex market environment for the white wine industry [1][9]. Fund Performance - The A-class and C-class shares of the white wine fund both saw a net value decrease of approximately 9.5% in Q4 2025, while the benchmark's return was -9.78%, resulting in a slight outperformance of 0.28 and 0.25 percentage points respectively [1][10]. - Over the past year, the A-class and C-class shares recorded net value growth rates of -12.63% and -12.72%, outperforming the benchmark by 2.68 and 2.59 percentage points respectively [1][10]. Fund Holdings - The fund's top holdings include Kweichow Moutai, which regained its position as the largest holding with a 15.38% share, valued at approximately 6.642 billion yuan [3][12]. - The top ten holdings accounted for 84.79% of the fund's net asset value, indicating a significant concentration in leading companies within the white wine sector [3][12]. Market Conditions - The white wine sector faced challenges in Q4 2025 due to slower-than-expected consumer recovery and pressure on terminal sales, leading to an overall downward trend in stock prices [3][11]. - The fund manager noted that the industry is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with head companies exerting pressure on mid-tier firms, complicating the balance of price and volume for wine producers [5][13]. Investor Behavior - There was a notable divergence in investor behavior, with A-class shares experiencing a net redemption of 10.54 billion shares, while C-class shares increased by 15.71 billion shares during the same period [5][16]. - The growth in C-class shares may reflect investor strategies favoring short-term gains, while the redemption of A-class shares suggests a cautious outlook on the industry's recovery [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Dongfang Hongyuan, Dan Bin, expressed respect for those still investing in the liquor industry, particularly in the context of the challenges faced over the past two years [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Dan Bin acknowledged the difficulties faced by investors in the liquor sector, stating that while others have thrived, those in liquor have struggled [1][3]. - He emphasized that investment does not have a clear right or wrong, showing appreciation for those who continue to fight in the liquor market [1][3]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - Dan Bin highlighted the importance of observing the consumption patterns of young people regarding liquor purchases [1][3]. - He noted that the main consumer demographic for Moutai is gradually disappearing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Dan Bin referenced a quote from investor Duan Yongping, expressing a willingness to trade Moutai for insights into Nvidia from five years ago, suggesting a shift in investment focus [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The story illustrates the journey of a couple, Li Ming and Zhang Lan, who invest their life savings in Moutai liquor, believing it will appreciate over time, but face significant challenges and setbacks in their business and personal lives. Group 1: Investment Decision - Li Ming decides to invest 500,000 yuan in Moutai liquor, believing it will appreciate due to its limited production and high demand [12][14][20] - Zhang Lan initially opposes the investment, fearing it is a gamble with their entire savings [15][16][18] - After much discussion, Zhang Lan reluctantly agrees to the investment plan, emphasizing the need to share the responsibility regardless of the outcome [20] Group 2: Investment Execution - Li Ming successfully purchases over 2,000 bottles of Moutai at an average price of less than 250 yuan per bottle [25] - They install temperature and humidity control equipment in their storage room to ensure optimal conditions for preserving the liquor [27] Group 3: Business Challenges - Following the investment, the couple's restaurant faces operational difficulties due to cash flow issues, leading to a decline in service quality and customer satisfaction [30][32][35] - Li Ming struggles to maintain the restaurant's operations while managing the financial strain from the liquor investment [44][45] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - After two years, the price of Moutai has only increased by about 10%, causing Li Ming to doubt the investment's viability [38] - Despite the challenges, Li Ming remains hopeful that the liquor's value will eventually rise significantly [66] Group 5: Market Recognition - By 2013, Moutai liquor's market value has surged, with reports indicating prices reaching as high as 6,000 yuan per bottle, significantly increasing the couple's potential wealth [76][87] - A professional appraiser confirms the authenticity and value of their Moutai collection, estimating a total worth of at least 100 million yuan [89]

Group 1 - Duan Yongping donated 10,000 shares of Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., valued at 15 million RMB, to the Jiangxi Water Conservancy and Electric Power University Education Development Foundation [1][2] - The donation was made in the name of his parents to support the school's educational initiatives, following a previous donation of 5 million USD for the construction of a library in 2007 [2] - Duan expressed confidence in Kweichow Moutai, stating that the market value is temporary and that the company should focus on using dividends [4][7] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai reported a third-quarter revenue of 39.064 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of only 0.56%, and a net profit of 19.224 billion RMB, up 0.48% [7] - The stock has seen a decline, with a 3.95% drop over the past five years, and it has fallen from being the third-largest holding in public funds to the tenth [8][10] - The overall white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with weak demand and inventory clearance, but recovery is expected as the macro economy improves [8] Group 3 - Public funds have been reducing their allocation to the white liquor sector, with a 2.89 percentage point decrease in the food and beverage sector's holding ratio to 28.42% by the end of the third quarter [11] - Despite the overall decline, some well-known fund managers continue to hold positions in white liquor stocks, citing long-term growth potential and reasonable valuations [12][13] - The white liquor sector is currently characterized by low positions, low valuations, low expectations, and high dividends, with leading companies maintaining a dividend yield of over 4% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Shen Qi, Vice President of Zhejiang Kang En Bei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., is due to work adjustments, and he will no longer serve as the investment director but will remain as the chairman of a subsidiary [1] Group 1 - Shen Qi submitted a written resignation report to the board of directors on October 17, 2025 [1] - After resigning from the vice president position, Shen Qi will not hold the role of investment director anymore [1] - Shen Qi will continue to serve as the chairman of Zhejiang University of Traditional Chinese Medicine's Chinese Medicine Decoction Pieces Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Renowned investor Duan Yongping expressed confidence in Moutai by purchasing shares and encouraging investors despite recent market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Duan Yongping's recent purchase of Moutai shares indicates a positive outlook on the company's future performance [1] - In June, after a 1.13% decline in Moutai's stock price, Duan encouraged investors to remain optimistic, suggesting that fear was unwarranted [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Moutai's stock price increased from 1403.9 yuan to a peak of 1538.02 yuan over the past three months, representing a 9.6% year-on-year increase [1] - The stock's performance reflects investor confidence and market resilience despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 3: Company Strength - Duan emphasized that Moutai is the best endorsement for itself, highlighting its stability and reliability in the high-end liquor market [1] - He described Moutai as the most economical and practical choice among premium liquors, reinforcing its market position [1]

Group 1 - Liu Jipeng, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, emphasizes the need for China to focus on high-tech investments rather than traditional sectors like liquor, questioning the sustainability of relying on alcohol for economic growth [1] - The liquor sector has dominated the market in the past five years, but Liu argues that it cannot be the sole driver for revitalizing China's economy, drawing a comparison to the absence of liquor in the "Seven Sisters" of the U.S. [1] - Liu acknowledges that investing in high-tech comes with high risks, stating that capital markets are characterized by a pursuit of high risk and high returns, and investors must be prepared for potential losses [1] Group 2 - Recent market data shows fluctuations in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3853.30, down 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67% to 13445.90 [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.58% to 3235.76, indicating a positive trend in growth-oriented sectors [2] - The hardware and communication equipment sectors have shown notable gains, with increases of 3.59% and 2.35% respectively, reflecting investor interest in technology-related stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant investment by Ge Weidong and Ge Guilian in Kuaijishan indicates a growing interest in the yellow wine sector, with Kuaijishan's stock price experiencing a substantial increase of over 150% from late March to late May 2023 [2][5]. Company Summary - Kuaijishan's half-year report shows a revenue of 817 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, up 3.41% year-on-year [7]. - The company's gross margin improved by 5.4 percentage points to 55.5%, attributed to a continuous high-end product strategy [7]. - Despite the traditional off-season for the yellow wine industry in Q2, Kuaijishan maintained stable performance through online brand cultivation and the promotion of sparkling yellow wine products [7]. Shareholder Activity - Ge Weidong acquired 4.9715 million shares of Kuaijishan, while Ge Guilian purchased 13.802 million shares, together holding over 18 million shares [3][4]. - The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority significantly reduced its holdings in Kuaijishan, exiting the top ten shareholders list after selling at least 1.5 million shares in Q2 [4][5]. Industry Context - The yellow wine sector is gaining attention, paralleling the white wine sector, which has seen a resurgence in interest despite previous downturns [8][10]. - The white wine sector has experienced a significant adjustment over the past few years, but some investors remain committed, as evidenced by the increased holdings in major brands by funds like E Fund [8][10]. - Recent data indicates that the white wine sector's valuation has reached historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery and investment opportunities [10][11].