来源：兵哥事务所 我们算一笔账。 如果一个年轻人研究生毕业后顺利参加工作，工资第一年为25万，工资每年递增2%，这个增速考虑和 未来中长期的通货膨胀率相当。 工作到60岁后退休开始领取退休金，退休金为第60岁工资的90%，此后退休金继续按照2%的速度递 增，持续到90岁结束。 这份工作是不是很完美了？ 我们对这笔现金流进行折现，折现率我这里按照股权资产的回报率计算。 1999年到2024年，纳斯达克指数的年化收益率高达12.5%，标普500指数为9.2%。 沪深300指数成立于2004-12-31，基准点是1000点，现在点位是4645点。我们按照21年计算，年化收益 率是7.6%，是不是也挺高的？ 我们按照4%的折现率计算，这份工作的现金价值是877.8万，如果按照8%的折现率计算，这份工作的现 金价值是455.9万。 这就是这份工作，也是一个在社会上处于中上地位的人，一辈子的财务价值。 50岁，1900亿美元。 54岁，7520亿美元，成为人类历史上首位突破7000亿美元的富豪。此时，他的财富已超过全球富豪榜第 二至第四名（拉里·佩奇、拉里·埃里森、杰夫·贝索斯）的财富总和。 稳妥期间，我们再把首付+车的 ...

一日身价劲增近200亿元，投资大佬葛卫东做到了。 12月17日，国产GPU新贵沐曦股份上市，盘中股价最高涨幅高达755%，当日收盘上涨692.95%，市值突破3000亿元。葛卫东及其关联人混沌投资合计持有 2693.79万股，上市当天每股上涨725.34元，一天身价劲增195亿元。 葛卫东日赚195亿元 根据沐曦股份招股说明书，沐曦股份上市后，葛卫东持有14338176股，占公司总股份的3.58%。同时，葛卫东实际控制的混沌投资持有12599744股，占公 司总股份的3.15%。 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 发行前 | | 发行后 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股数 (万股) | 比例 | 股数 (万股) | 比例 | | | 上海骄迈 | 4,787.12 | 13.30% | 4,787.12 | 11.96% | | 2 | 陈维良 | 2,012.98 | 5.59% | 2,012.98 | 5.03% | | 序号 | 股东名称 | 发行前 | | 发行后 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The fourth quarter is a critical period for private equity funds to realize performance and capture investment opportunities for the coming year, with research becoming a primary method for exploring new opportunities [1] - As of December 4, a total of 2,280 private equity institutions conducted 13,000 research sessions in the fourth quarter, with sectors like electronic components, medical devices, and integrated circuits being the most popular [1] - Private equity firms are optimistic about the A-share market in 2026 and are actively adjusting their portfolios through research to ensure more rational asset allocation and maximize product returns [2][3] Group 2 - Leading private equity firms are actively conducting research, with several top firms ranking high in the number of sessions, including Guangdong Zhengyuan, Hongyun, and Shanghai Gao Yi, among others [2] - The active research by private equity firms signals a positive outlook on the A-share market and a focus on understanding industry developments and verifying company operations to achieve higher returns [2] - The demand for deep research and precise stock selection is increasing as the market shifts towards performance realization, particularly in the technology sector [3] Group 3 - Technology stocks, particularly in sectors like electronic components, medical devices, and integrated circuits, are favored by private equity firms, with companies like Luxshare Precision and Aibo Medical being researched over 100 times [3][4] - The electronic components sector has seen strong upward momentum this year, benefiting from multiple favorable factors such as AI hardware, semiconductor domestic substitution, and automotive electronics [4] - The focus on sectors with growth potential and profit certainty is expected to help private equity funds achieve excess returns, aligning with their criteria for asset selection [4]

Core Insights - Tiger Global significantly reduced its Meta holdings by approximately 4.7 million shares, dropping its position from the largest to the sixth largest in its portfolio [3][5][10] - Coatue Management increased its Meta holdings, making it the largest position in its portfolio, while also cutting its CoreWeave stake by 62% [3][11] - Viking Global doubled its holdings in PNC Financial Services, making it the largest position in its portfolio, reflecting a strategic shift towards financial stocks [11][12] Tiger Global's Adjustments - In Q3, Tiger Global sold about 4.7 million shares of Meta, reducing its holdings to approximately 2.8 million shares, which now represents 6.4% of its portfolio [5][6] - The fund increased its Amazon holdings to 11.04 million shares, elevating its rank to fourth [5][6] - Meta's stock price has declined nearly 18% since the end of June, contributing to Tiger's decision to reduce its stake [7][10] Coatue Management's Strategy - Coatue Management increased its Meta holdings by approximately 355,000 shares, elevating it from the second largest to the first position in its portfolio [8][9] - The firm also significantly reduced its CoreWeave holdings by 62%, now holding about 6.7 million shares, which has dropped to the 16th largest position [9][11] Viking Global's Focus on Financials - Viking Global's strategy diverged from its peers by significantly increasing its stake in financial stocks, particularly PNC Financial Services, which saw its holdings rise to nearly 8 million shares [11][12] - This shift indicates a positive outlook on the financial sector amidst pressures on technology stock valuations [13] Market Context - The adjustments made by these hedge funds reflect a broader trend of profit-taking and risk management in the face of high valuations in the technology sector [10][13] - The 13F filings provide a snapshot of institutional holdings but do not disclose specific trading times or short positions, limiting the insight into market strategies [13][14]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's total market value of holdings increased to $1.67 trillion in Q2 from $1.53 trillion in the previous quarter, reflecting a growth of 1.98% [1][2] - The firm added 864 new stocks, increased holdings in 3,144 stocks, reduced holdings in 2,747 stocks, and completely sold out of 527 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings account for 26.36% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - Nvidia became the largest holding with 488.6 million shares valued at approximately $91.17 billion, representing 5.46% of the portfolio, a 5.63% increase from the previous quarter [3][8] - Microsoft is the second-largest holding with 158.8 million shares valued at about $82.25 billion, making up 4.93% of the portfolio, a 1.11% increase [4][8] - Apple ranks third with 236.7 million shares valued at around $60.26 billion, accounting for 3.61% of the portfolio, a 10.2% increase [5][8] - Meta is the fourth-largest holding with 54.7 million shares valued at approximately $40.18 billion, representing 2.41% of the portfolio, a slight decrease of 0.01% [6][8] - Amazon is fifth with 182.7 million shares valued at about $40.11 billion, making up 2.40% of the portfolio, a decrease of 5.26% [7][8] Trading Activity - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio include Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet Class C (GOOG), Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) [8][10] - The top five sales by percentage change include Amazon, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), Meta, Netflix (NFLX), and Visa (V) [9][10] - The adjustments indicate increased investment in major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia while reducing exposure to other tech stocks such as Meta and Tesla (TSLA) [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with semiconductor, power grid equipment, and robotics becoming market focal points driven by the AI industry wave and domestic logic [1] - The consensus among first-tier private equity firms indicates a shift in the technology stock market from broad increases to structural differentiation, emphasizing the need to identify genuine opportunities rather than simply distinguishing between "new" and "old" themes [1][2] - Investment strategies are evolving from whether to continue investing to how to invest, focusing on discerning true value and maintaining a balanced approach [3][4] Group 2 - The investment landscape for technology stocks is not a simple binary of "new" versus "old," as both categories can benefit from the high prosperity of global AI development [2] - Key areas of focus include "old opportunities" like semiconductors and AI servers, which are foundational for AI, and "new opportunities" such as robotics and power grids that arise from AI-driven demand [2] - Private equity firms are advised to avoid blindly chasing high valuations and instead prioritize companies with solid earnings and numerous orders, employing a strategy of gradual buying to mitigate risks [4] Group 3 - There is a strong belief in the long-term trends of core technology industries like AI and semiconductors, with a focus on application deployment and potential industry catalysts [5] - The AI computing infrastructure is expected to maintain high prosperity until 2026, driven by significant capital expenditures from overseas cloud vendors and accelerated domestic investments [5] - Emerging technologies and applications, such as AI glasses and storage chips, are being closely monitored for their potential to become future market leaders [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Social Security Fund's investment strategy focuses on supporting national strategies and industry layout through significant capital deployment in technology stocks [1][2]. Group 1 - The National Social Security Fund has a large scale that allows it to systematically support national strategies and conduct comprehensive industry layout [1]. - The investment approach aims to create a portfolio that diversifies risks while generating returns [2]. - The fund's scale enables it to play a leading role in the market, attracting more social capital into critical areas that require breakthroughs [2].

Core Insights - The disclosure of A-share listed companies' Q3 2025 reports has revealed significant trading activities by prominent investors, particularly Ge Weidong and Zhang Jianping [1] Group 1: Investor Activities - Ge Weidong slightly reduced his holdings in Zhaoyi Innovation, yet the market value of his remaining shares still exceeds 3 billion yuan [1] - Zhang Jianping, after realizing substantial profits from Cambricon, increased his holdings by 320,200 shares in Q3, with a market value surpassing 8 billion yuan at the end of the period [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points, reaching a ten-year high, which has boosted market sentiment and encouraged previously cautious investors to enter the market [1][2] - Historical analysis shows that previous instances of the index crossing 4000 points were followed by significant market bubbles, leading to eventual downturns despite initial optimism [2][3] - Current market conditions are considered more stable, with technology stocks playing a significant role in the recent rally, supported by national strategies aimed at fostering technological innovation [2][4] Group 2 - The A-share market's recovery to 4000 points is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals, although challenges such as trade friction and the need for consumption growth remain [4] - The market is characterized by structural trends, with technology sectors like semiconductors, AI, and renewable energy driving the current uptrend, while consumer and pharmaceutical sectors have underperformed [4] - There is a call for rational investment approaches to prevent speculative bubbles, emphasizing the importance of adhering to market principles and maintaining a respectful attitude towards market dynamics [3][4]

Core Insights - Dongfang Hongwan Overseas Fund, managed by Dan Bin, submitted its 13F report to the SEC, revealing its Q3 2025 holdings [1] Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - As of the end of Q3, the fund's holdings increased from 13 to 17 stocks, with a management scale of $1.292 billion, approximately 9.2 billion RMB, up from $1.126 billion at the end of Q2 [2] - The top two holdings remain in technology stocks, with Nvidia and Google valued at $236 million and $224 million respectively, together accounting for 35% of the total portfolio [2] - Alibaba was newly added to the portfolio with a purchase of 221,000 shares, valued at $39.5 million, making it the tenth largest holding at 3.06% of the total [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Adjustments - Dan Bin expressed concerns about the growing gap between domestic internet giants and global leaders, using Alibaba as an example of a company that has significantly lagged behind [2] - In addition to Alibaba, the fund made small purchases in Broadcom, Astera Labs, and BitMine Immersion Technologies, indicating a focus on semiconductor and cryptocurrency sectors [3] - Significant reductions were made in Amazon and Netflix holdings, with cuts of 50% and 71.5% respectively, leading to their exit from the top ten holdings [3] Group 3: Leverage and ETF Adjustments - The fund adjusted its leverage products by introducing a 2x long Google ETF while completely selling off the 2x long Nvidia ETF, reflecting a continued preference for Google [4] - Dan Bin had previously reduced Nvidia holdings over two consecutive quarters while increasing Google positions, which rose from the sixth to the second largest holding [4]