华泰证券研报称，白酒行业国庆、中秋双节延续调整趋势，双节动销整体仍有承压，行业延续分化，龙 头相对表现稳定，动销端看行业同比仍呈现下滑趋势，部分区域环比略有改善。高端酒旺季需求弱复 苏，大众价位动销表现行业领先，次高端价位仍有一定承压且分化显著；当前行业库存企稳，部分酒企 边际去化库存，释放经营压力。展望来看，本轮调整中头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面探底企 稳，叠加促销费政策托底，行业或逐步步入良性修复阶段，建议底部布局强基本面龙头。 ...

华泰证券指出，白酒行业国庆+中秋双节延续调整趋势，双节整体仍有承压，行业延续分化，龙头相对 表现稳定，动销端看行业同比仍呈现下滑趋势，部分区域环比略有改善。分场景看，大众宴席场景有所 修复，政商务消费仍有所承压，礼赠消费有所减少。分价格带看，高端酒旺季需求弱复苏，大众价位动 销表现行业领先，次高端价位仍有一定承压且分化显著；当前行业库存企稳，部分酒企边际去化库存， 释放经营压力。展望来看，本轮调整中头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面探底企稳，叠加促销费 政策托底，行业或逐步步入良性修复阶段，建议底部布局强基本面龙头。 ...

白酒股半年报冷思考：珍酒李渡的"失速"与蓄势。 文 | 卖酒狼团队 编 | 南风 8月22日，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡交出了一份看似"失速"的半年报，实现营业收入24.97亿元，经调整净利润6.13亿元。 表面看，这是白酒行业面临挑战的一个缩影，但若细读财报、观察战略动向，却不难发现，这家企业在行业深度调整期中仍展现出较强的韧性与战略定 力，其"基本盘筑牢+创新突围"的双轨策略颇具样本价值。 2025年以来，白酒行业确实深陷价格倒挂与销售疲软的双重困境之中，整体市场氛围持续承压。规模以上白酒企业产量同比下滑，价格倒挂已经不是某个 白酒品牌所面临的问题，而是整个白酒市场中最为普遍的情况。 这背后是消费场景的结构性变迁：政务和商务宴请占比显著下滑，婚宴、家庭消费等虽成为主力，但客单价普遍下降，难以支撑次高端及以上产品的销 量。 同时，头部品牌如茅台、五粮液渠道下沉，加剧了市场竞争，加之年轻消费群体偏好低度、利口化酒饮，传统白酒需求受到进一步冲击。 尽管多家酒企通过推出低度产品、渠道改革等方式积极应对，但短期阵痛恐难消除，行业整体仍处于深度调整期。 在此背景下，珍酒李渡并没有成为例外，同样受到了市场大环境的"冲击 ...

据"君品习酒"微信公众号消息，9月27日至28日，习酒集团董事长汪地强到陕西、天津市场走访调研。 此前9月初，汪地强与习酒集团总经理万波已分别前往河南、山东、陕西、浙江、北京、重庆、云南、 辽宁、吉林、黑龙江和贵州省内等市场开展调研。 习酒集团董事长汪地强近日赴陕西、天津市场走访调研，此前，汪地强与习酒集团总经理万波已深入调 研河南、山东等全国十余个重点市场。 习酒高层如此密集走访一线，动作不同寻常…… 密集调研背后 君品习酒五年批价跌幅最大 图片来源："君品习酒"微信公众号 据悉，此次系列调研旨在"深入了解市场前沿动态"，进一步分析形势、找准问题、统一思想、凝聚共 识，推动习酒市场营销迈上新台阶。 习酒高层如此密集走访一线，折射出企业应对市场压力的紧迫与深意。中国酒业协会联合毕马威发布的 《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，在T9白酒品牌中，君品习酒近五年批发价格累计跌幅达 39.82%，为该阵营中跌幅最大的单品之一。数据显示，其批价从2021年6月的955元/瓶，持续下行至目 前约683元/瓶。（注：报告原文相关计算存在误差，但君品习酒在T9品牌中价格跌幅最大的情况未 变。） 此次纳入对比的其他主流 ...

分价位带看，25H1高端/次高端/中端及以下营收分别为5.75/9.82/9.40亿元（同 比-47.28%/-41.58%/-30.95%），毛利率分别为67.7%/65.7%/46.8%（同 比-2.20pcts/+2.40pcts/+2.60pcts）。高端、次高端承压相对更为明显，该行认为或主要系商务场景需求 相对疲软。 分渠道看，25H1公司经销商、直销营收分别为21.97/3.00亿元（同比-41.78%/-16.57%），经销合作伙 伴、体验店、零售商数量同比分别+152/-36/-357家至3259/1025/2835家。 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，考虑当前白酒行业整体仍处于调整期，调低珍酒李渡(06979) 2025-2027年盈利预测，预计2025-2027年，公司实现营业收入59.78、65.90、71.41亿元（前值73.28、 81.00、87.86亿元），实现归母净利润10.73、12.94、17.00亿元（前值15.25、18.20、23.05亿元），对应 PE（2025-09-29收盘）为26.58、22.03、16.77X，维持"买入"评级。公司发布2025年中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is lackluster, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% despite a month-on-month improvement from July to August [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sales during the 2025 double festival are reported to be flat, with a significant demand gap remaining, particularly in the high-end and sub-high-end segments [1][4]. - The mid-to-low-end liquor sales are performing better than high-end and sub-high-end products, with banquet brands showing faster sales velocity [1][3]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines, while Fenjiu maintains upward momentum with stable pricing [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The recovery of government and business consumption demand is expected to take time, impacting high-end and sub-high-end liquor consumption in the short term [2][4]. - Attention should be focused on supply-side contraction signals from companies post-festival, which could catalyze the sector [2][4]. - Price indicators are anticipated to turn positive in 2026, potentially driving inflation and corporate profitability, leading to a sustained recovery in liquor demand [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies that are relatively healthy and have a positive market atmosphere, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [4]. - Companies that are innovating in channels and models, like Yingjia Gongjiu and Zhenjiu Lidu, are also highlighted as potential growth contributors [4].

21世纪经济报道肖夏 综合报道 白酒旺季终于回归，形势依旧分化——一边是名酒价格回升，另一边整体行情依旧下行；动销回暖的同 时，全行业产量还在继续收缩。 中秋国庆旺季临近 茅台、五粮液等名酒动销回暖 距离国庆中秋长假仅有几天，名酒的动销持续回暖。 9月25日、26日开始，多个酒价平台数据报出的飞天茅台价格集体上涨，28日有酒价平台显示，飞天茅 台的报价单日上涨了30元。 21世纪经济报道记者上周在重庆也走访了多类终端，普遍反馈飞天茅台的动销近期回暖，报价多在1900 元至2000元区间，且上周末报价在此前已经上涨的基础上再度上涨。 此前贵州茅台官方公众号发文称，9月25日茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉率队深入青海市场一线调 研，并在西宁组织召开青甘新藏四省区贵州茅台酒市场营销座谈会。会上透露，9月以来，贵州茅台酒 终端动销增长表现更加显著，环比增长约1倍，同比增长超20%。茅台方面认为，这一系列积极变化， 既显示出消费端节日需求增长，也充分体现了面对行业周期调整，茅台酒"4+6"渠道体系所展现出的渠 道良好韧性。 市场上也传出了五粮液价格大幅回涨的消息。21世纪经济报道记者走访的终端普遍反馈，五粮液是近期 动 ...

茅台秋季大规模市场调研释放积极信号。 据第三方平台"今日酒价"披露的批发参考价，9月22日，25年飞天原箱（53度/500ml）跌至1760元/瓶， 创下新低；而25年飞天散瓶跌至1740元/瓶，同样创新低。而自9月24日以来，25年飞天原箱和散瓶批发 价接连上涨，其中原箱批发价已重回1800元上方。最新数据显示，9月28日，25年飞天原箱和散瓶批发 价分别报1810元/瓶、1785元/瓶。 与此同时，近几日，飞天茅台终端价格普遍上涨。 就茅台价格及终端动销情况，9月28日，记者采访了山东、江苏、安徽、上海等地的多家白酒经销商。 记者了解到，就在近几日，飞天茅台原箱和散瓶的价格均有不同程度的上涨，其中，散瓶涨价幅度在20 元-50元不等。对于后续行情，终端普遍表示，从近几日的波动来看，暂时不好预测。 一位江苏地区的经销商对记者表示，今年节前这几天，飞天茅台"突然就涨价了，而且一天一个 价"。"去年中秋节前，飞天茅台普遍在2300元左右。今年国庆和中秋假期叠加，整体销量还不错。尽管 最近几天涨了几十元，但1900元左右的价格来说，还是非常划算的。"该经销商称。 从终端销量来看，一位山东地区的经销商对记者表示，和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing a significant downturn characterized by declining prices, increased inventory, and shifting consumer preferences, indicating a deep adjustment phase rather than a temporary fluctuation [4][15][22]. Industry Overview - The baijiu industry is facing a dual decline in both volume and price, with a reported production volume of 191.59 million kiloliters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [5]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, where actual market prices fall below manufacturer guidance, particularly affecting the 800-1500 yuan price range [5]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in sales [11]. Company Performance - Major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing signs of slowing growth, with Moutai's revenue growth target for 2025 set at 9%, the lowest since 2016 [17]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% [17]. - Liquor companies are increasingly resorting to price cuts to manage high inventory levels, creating a downward pressure on prices [12]. Consumer Trends - The primary consumer demographic for baijiu is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers (born after 1995) showing diverse preferences for alcoholic beverages, including wine and craft beer [24]. - Health consciousness among younger consumers is changing drinking habits, leading to a decline in traditional drinking culture [25]. - The rise of new sales channels, such as e-commerce and community group buying, is disrupting traditional distribution models and further compressing profit margins for liquor companies [25]. Market Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are emerging structural opportunities in the market, particularly in the lower price segments (100-300 yuan) where demand is shifting [26]. - The focus on family and friend gatherings as primary consumption scenarios is creating new opportunities for products that cater to these social settings [33]. - Companies that can adapt to these changes by enhancing their product offerings and marketing strategies are likely to survive and thrive in the long term [26].

Core Insights - Kouzi Jiao is undergoing significant reforms as it faces its toughest challenges since 2020, with a notable decline in revenue and profit [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Kouzi Jiao reported revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.63% [2] - The second quarter saw revenue drop to 721 million yuan, a staggering 48.48% year-on-year decline and a 60.17% decrease from the previous quarter [3] - The gross profit margin fell to 65.2%, down 9.9 percentage points year-on-year and 3.3 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 210 million yuan in the second quarter, contributing to a total outflow of 383 million yuan in the first half [3] Market and Product Challenges - The company is experiencing a structural decline, with a shift towards lower-end products weakening revenue [4] - High inventory levels and price discrepancies are pressuring profits, with a significant portion of high-end products selling below their suggested retail price [5][6] - As of the second quarter of 2025, inventory reached a historical high of 6.159 billion yuan, with over 60% being semi-finished products [6] Market Distribution and Strategy - In the first half of 2025, revenue from the domestic market was 2.101 billion yuan, down 19.31%, while revenue from the external market was 384 million yuan, down 19.24% [7] - The company’s over-reliance on the domestic market poses risks, as its revenue share from this market decreased significantly [7] - Efforts to expand into external markets have stalled, with revenue remaining stagnant at around 400 million yuan for three consecutive years [7] Management and Future Outlook - Concerns have been raised regarding the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder, which may reflect internal caution about future performance [8] - Despite challenges, the company is focusing on enhancing direct sales channels, with a 44.57% increase in revenue from direct sales in the first half of the year [8] - The company aims to maintain strategic focus on market, structural, and brand upgrades to navigate the evolving competitive landscape [8]