某令的杀伤力不仅是销量下滑，更是白酒底层逻辑的坍塌。经济学里有一句话，制度决定交易成本，白酒就是社会交易成本的具象化工具。过去，白酒消 费是人情税，你得喝，不得不喝。而某令相当于从场景入手变成了从人入手，参与者直接被剔除，覆盖就业人口超10%，潜在消费千亿。换句话说，不是 不能喝，是根本没人敢喝了。 中国人开始不喝酒了？茅台跌得比房价还快，这波是段子还是2025年的白酒真相？ 过去十年，白酒股，特别是茅台，那就是硬通货、摇钱树。但今天，飞天茅台的价格几乎腰斩，和北京郊区房价跌幅不相上下。要知道，中国人的酒桌文 化可是写在基因里的，宋代有斗酒百篇，明清无酒不成席。如今呢，白酒产量连跌8年，2025年上半年又降了将近6%，白酒这门稳赚不赔的生意突然被打 回原形。 所以有人问，这是因为啥？中国人真的开始不喝酒了吗？大家可以先在评论区聊一聊：白酒你还在喝吗？为什么不喝了？ 我们先看数据：2025年上半年，白酒行业的利润比去年同期少了10%，主力消费带从300~500元迁移到了100~300元，行业再一次出清，100多家主体关门 大吉，投资者也跑了。二季度机构对白酒减仓25%，白酒指数跌破3000点。一句话，喝的人少了 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai will completely eliminate the distribution model by 2026, reducing the burden on distributors and regaining pricing control over its products, particularly the core product, Feitian Moutai, which is now available at a suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, down from previous highs of around 3000 yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Distribution and Pricing - The decision to stop the distribution model is a significant move to alleviate the financial pressure on distributors, who previously had to purchase non-standard products at high prices, leading to hidden losses due to price discrepancies [2]. - The previous practice of selling Moutai products at 90% of the market suggested retail price has contributed to the financial strain on distributors, making the new direct sales approach a necessary reform [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Consumer Behavior - The transformation of Guizhou Moutai reflects the determination of leading liquor companies to adapt, but it also introduces new challenges, particularly regarding whether consumers, especially younger demographics, will continue to purchase high-end liquor at the new price point [3]. - The trend towards lower alcohol content and younger consumer preferences is becoming prominent in the industry, with other companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger buyers [3]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Competition - Moutai's market reform is expected to create a new wave of disruption in the liquor industry, potentially expanding its consumer base as prices stabilize, which may impact competitors like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 [4]. - The ongoing "Matthew effect" in the liquor industry is leading to resource concentration among top companies, suggesting that smaller enterprises may face significant challenges and potential market exit [4]. Group 4: Financial Attributes and Market Dynamics - The gradual removal of Moutai's financial attributes raises concerns in the capital market, as easier access to reasonably priced Moutai could slow down inventory turnover and affect the market dynamics for high-priced stockholders [5]. - The competitive advantage of the iMoutai platform in offering genuine products at fair prices may further disrupt traditional sales channels, leading to potential price volatility in the Moutai market [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is at a crossroads of "adjustment and innovation" in 2025, facing dual pressures from consumption trends and market competition, leading to a significant reshaping of the industry landscape [1] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," with new growth opportunities emerging amidst the pain of transformation [1] Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall performance of the liquor industry showed a phase of decline, with a 5.90% decrease in revenue to 317.79 billion yuan and a 6.93% drop in net profit to 122.57 billion yuan [2] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue decline of 18.47% and a net profit drop of 22.22% [2] - The production of liquor from January to October 2025 was 2.902 million kiloliters, down 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a systemic adjustment in the industry [2] Market Segmentation - The top six liquor companies accounted for 88% of the total revenue and 95% of the net profit among 20 listed companies, highlighting an increasing concentration in the industry [3] - Regional liquor companies are experiencing significant differentiation, with some maintaining stability through geographic advantages, while many mid-sized and small companies face unprecedented challenges [3][4] - Companies like Jinhuijiu and Jiansiyuan have shown resilience with smaller revenue declines compared to the industry average, while others like Jiuguijiu and Jinzizijiu faced revenue drops exceeding 20% [3] Inventory and Channel Dynamics - The average inventory turnover days reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, reflecting severe inventory pressure across the industry [5] - The total inventory of 20 listed liquor companies reached 170.69 billion yuan, up 11.32% year-on-year, indicating that destocking remains a priority for most companies [5] - Traditional liquor distributors are struggling with profitability due to high inventory and declining prices, leading to a significant drop in their earnings [5][6] Product Innovation and Consumer Trends - The rise of light bottle liquor and low-alcohol products is reshaping the industry, with light bottle liquor expected to surpass a market size of 200 billion yuan in 2025 [11] - Companies are shifting focus from traditional high-end products to more affordable, quality-driven options that appeal to younger consumers [11][12] - The emergence of low-alcohol products is also notable, with several major companies launching innovative offerings that cater to a more casual drinking experience [12] Regulatory Environment and Support Measures - Regulatory efforts to clean up industry practices have intensified, with local governments implementing supportive policies to boost market confidence and promote recovery [19][20] - Initiatives such as consumer vouchers and financial support for sales growth are being introduced to stimulate the market [20] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a structural upturn in 2026, with high-end products likely to recover first due to their stable social and gifting attributes [21][22] - Companies are encouraged to innovate new channels and adapt to changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality and brand storytelling to maintain market share [21][22] - The liquor industry is anticipated to continue its transition towards high-quality development, with a focus on digital transformation and consumer engagement [23]

茅台股东大会的餐桌上，飞天茅台被悄然撤下，换上了21元一瓶的蓝莓果汁，这个微小变化背后，是一场席卷整个白酒行业的深度危机。 "欢迎晚宴上股东交流明显变少，不及以往热闹了。"一位参加贵州茅台2025年股东大会的投资者回忆，餐桌上的飞天茅台被替换成了蓝莓果汁。 而茅台生态农业公司的这款蓝莓汁，在电商平台售价仅约21元一瓶。 这不仅是贵州茅台对中央"新禁酒令"的响应，更映射出白酒行业面临的深刻变局。中国酒业协会最新报告显示，2025年上半年白酒行业呈现"量价齐跌，费 用上升"的特点。 01 产量萎缩，白酒市场"量价双杀" 白酒行业正在经历连续第八年的产量下滑。2025年一季度，全国白酒产量仅为103.2万千升，同比下降7.2%。 与2016年的产量高峰1358.4万千升相比，如今的产量已经缩水了约三分之二。 市场表现更为严峻。调查显示，59.7% 的酒企营业利润减少，50.9% 的企业营业额下滑。行业平均存货周转天数已长达900天，意味着企业需要近两年半的 时间才能清空库存。 2025年上半年白酒企业业绩呈现两极分化，具体数据如下： 行业前六大企业营收已占据整体市场的八成以上，利润占比更是高达86%。 · 贵州茅台 ...

白酒行业遭遇逆周期，汾酒为何"特立独行"？ 近期飞天茅台市场销售价格跌破1499元官方指导价、茅台价格跌回十年前、"五粮液十年来首次降价"成了白酒行业的热门话题。 12月6日，继茅台价格波动后，五粮液调价的消息在行业内迅速发酵，自2026年起，第八代普五(52度、500ml)经销商开票价将由1019元下降至900元左 右，降幅接近12%。 据第一财经12月2日报道，山西汾酒集团党委书记、董事长袁清茂表示，白酒消费正在从传统的以政务和商务消费为支柱的增长模式，转向"悦人"与"悦 己"并存的新格局，后者也成为行业必须面对的新课题与新增长曲线。相较于行业中一些白酒巨头还在坚持走高端路线，袁清茂可以说给白酒行业"上了一 课"。 有业内人士指出，高端白酒的货币属性或正在消失，白酒行业整体低迷或成常态，各大酒企必须找到新的增长点才能应对业绩压力。 汾酒真的是茅台"老师傅"？ 如今世人只知道茅台是高端白酒的代表，却鲜有人知茅台源自汾酒。清代《汾州府志》明确记载"天下白酒出汾州。"汾酒与茅台的历史渊源，是中国白酒 发展史上一段"师承—演化—并立"的经典故事。二者虽分属清香与酱香两大香型，但茅台的酿造技艺最初正是源自汾酒，这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the price of Feitian Moutai, experienced a significant surge, with prices rising from 1490 yuan to 1580 yuan per bottle within a day, marking a notable increase of 90 yuan [1][3]. Price Fluctuation - On December 12, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1485 yuan per bottle, dipping below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, leading to discussions about the end of the "Moutai myth" [3]. - The price rebounded sharply on December 13, starting at 1490 yuan and increasing to 1580 yuan by the evening, with some regions reporting even higher prices, such as 1630 yuan in Tianjin and 1680 yuan in certain Beijing stores [3][6]. Policy Changes - The price volatility was triggered by Moutai's recent channel control policy, which includes a temporary halt on product supply to distributors until January 1, 2026, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors [6]. - Starting in 2026, Moutai plans to significantly reduce quotas for non-standard products, with reductions of 30% for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Feitian Moutai, and a 50% cut for zodiac Moutai, while completely ceasing supply of colored glaze products [6][13]. Market Reactions - Different market participants reacted variably to the price increase; some distributors opted to sell off inventory at higher prices, while others remained cautious, concerned about the long-term effects of the policy changes [8]. - The secondary market saw a split among scalpers, with some leaving the market due to reduced profit margins, while others took advantage of the situation to raise prices during weekends when distributors were not active [9]. Capital Market Response - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai rose significantly during the price surge, closing at 1476.00 yuan per share on December 13, resulting in a market capitalization increase of over 10 billion yuan, also positively impacting other liquor companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [11]. Industry Context - The price fluctuations reflect the broader challenges facing the high-end liquor industry, which has been dealing with high inventory levels and extended turnover days, with high-end liquor inventory turnover reaching 120 days and mid-range products facing over 35% channel pressure [11]. - The consumption structure is shifting, with traditional government consumption declining and business and younger consumers becoming the new mainstay, although the latter group tends to favor rational consumption over speculative buying [11]. Strategic Intent - Moutai's policy adjustments aim to address industry issues by reducing sources of channel losses and focusing resources on core products, with price anchors set at 1500 yuan, 600 yuan, and 2000 yuan for its main offerings [13]. - The market is divided on the implications of the price increase, with some optimistic that Moutai's proactive control of supply will help clear channel inventories and restore the pricing structure [13][15].

进入12月中旬，飞天茅台价格出现较大幅度回暖：截至12月14日，全国范围内批价两日内累计上涨已突 破100元。 相较于批价的显著波动，飞天茅台的零售均价表现更为稳健。据新浪财经"酒价内参"12月14日数据显 示，53度/500ml规格的飞天茅台，全国零售终端平均价格为1808元/瓶，较前一交易日小幅上涨2元，整 体走势稳健上行。 南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组最新一期《湾区酒价》数据显示，广州、深圳、佛山、东莞四座城 市的飞天茅台零售均价达到1884.1元/瓶，区域市场需求热度与价格水平形成良性呼应。 从区域市场布局来看，各地价格分布均衡有序，形成合理价格梯度：天津原箱价格为1700元/瓶，河北 原箱报价1720元/瓶，江苏原箱价格1705元/瓶，广西原箱售价1720元/瓶，江西原箱价格为1700元/ 瓶……这种适度差异化的价格分布，既彰显了茅台价格体系的坚实底部支撑，也从侧面印证了消费端需 求的持续稳固，为市场稳健运行奠定基础。 此次价格回暖的核心，源于真实消费需求的集中释放与供给端的刚性支撑。市场一线反馈显示，近期飞 天茅台出货效率大幅提升，多地经销商出现"到货即售、库存清零"的热销场景，行业整体库存维 ...

跳出单一产品价格波动，五粮液乃至整个白酒行业的未来，正系于能否彻底告别对"提价-囤货"旧路径的依赖，真正完成发展模式的转型。五粮液集团近年 跨界投资航空、新能源等领域，虽意在多元化布局，但白酒主业的根基仍在于市场的健康度。 表面上看，这是五粮液面对渠道压力的战术性妥协。从"涨价潮"到"暗流涌动"的降价，仅仅过去一年。2024年，五粮液刚将第八代出厂价从969元提至1019 元，与茅台等头部酒企的步伐一致，意图巩固高端形象与利润空间。然而，市场并未如愿买账。正如行业数据所揭示的，当前白酒消费正转向理性，中高端 市场受礼品与商务消费收缩冲击明显，导致渠道库存高企，市场价格严重"倒挂"——即实际成交价长期低于出厂价。五粮液前三季度营收与净利润近十年来 的首次双双负增长，便是最直接的注脚。 此次通过补贴变相降价，首要目的无疑是"泄洪"，缓解经销商沉重的资金与库存压力，正如分析师所指出的，将资源导向真实消费环节。这更像是一次被市 场倒逼的"急救"，而非主动的战略进攻。 然而，更深层次观察，五粮液的让步绝非孤例，而是行业逻辑生变的必然结果。回顾上一次类似降价，还是在2014年的行业深度调整期。十年一个轮回，但 此番境况已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in Moutai's performance, highlighting the challenges faced by the company due to reduced demand, channel inefficiencies, and falling prices, while also exploring its attempts at transformation and adaptation to the changing market landscape [1][2][20]. Group 1: Performance Decline - Moutai's sales prices have decreased, with offline stores selling at 1590 yuan and online platforms offering prices as low as 1499 yuan during the recent Double Eleven shopping festival [1][2]. - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped from 2220 yuan at the beginning of the year to 1565 yuan recently, marking a decline of over 29%, the largest drop since its listing [10][20]. - Moutai's revenue growth has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.56% and net profit growth of 0.48%, the lowest in nearly 11 years [1][20]. Group 2: Market Pressures - The demand for high-end liquor has decreased, with a reported 30% drop in business consumption year-on-year, leading to a significant contraction in Moutai's core consumer scenarios [5][20]. - The average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year, indicating severe inventory issues for distributors [8][10]. - The number of liquor stores in China is shrinking at a rate of 17%-22%, with some areas experiencing closure rates exceeding 30% [5][20]. Group 3: Transformation Efforts - Moutai is shifting its strategy to focus on direct consumer engagement, moving from a quota-based distribution to a sales-based distribution model, which has improved inventory pressure [13][20]. - The company is targeting younger consumers by introducing smaller bottle sizes and collaborating with brands to create new products, with 45% of its customer base now under 45 years old [14][20]. - Moutai is also enhancing its service offerings, transitioning from merely selling liquor to providing lifestyle experiences, which has resulted in a 35% higher repurchase rate in experience stores compared to regular outlets [17][20]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - There are mixed opinions in the market regarding Moutai's ability to recover, with 80% of brokers maintaining a "buy" rating and an average target price of 2100 yuan, indicating a potential 27% upside from the current price of 1650 yuan [20][21]. - Despite the positive outlook from some analysts, concerns remain about the effectiveness of Moutai's transformation efforts, as new service-driven revenue streams have not yet achieved significant scale [21][23]. - Moutai's recent cash dividend proposal of approximately 300.01 billion yuan aims to bolster investor confidence amid ongoing challenges [20][21].

哈喽，大家好，小玖今天要和大家聊聊白酒圈的大新闻：五粮液2025年第三季度的财报简直是"平地惊雷"，营收和净利润直接断崖式下跌，连多年的"茅五 领跑"格局都被打破了。 10月30日晚间，五粮液（000858.SZ）披露的三季度报告显示，单季度营收仅81.74亿元，同比下滑52.66%；归母净利润20.19亿元，同比骤降65.62%。 更让人意外的是，山西汾酒同期营收和净利润双双反超五粮液，结束了白酒行业长期由茅台、五粮液主导的双雄格局。 这组数据不仅让投资者哗然，更暴露了高端白酒行业深层的渠道危机。 价格倒挂成"元凶"，线上低价倒逼经销商承压 小玖梳理数据时发现，五粮液业绩暴跌的核心症结的是持续发酵的价格倒挂问题。 以核心大单品八代普五为例，目前线下经销商批价维持在850-900元/瓶，但电商平台的"百亿补贴"频道直接把价格压到640元左右，价差最高可达260元。 这种悬殊的价格差，让消费者宁愿冒着买到假酒的风险，也要选择线上渠道。更严峻的是，电商低价背后还暗藏假货隐患。 五粮液近期鉴定数据显示，线上平台购买的148瓶产品中，假冒产品占比达12%，其中77%的假货来自电商"百亿补贴"专区。 | | 本报告期 ...