交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，油脂上涨带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，获利盘回吐 和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上涨高度，短 期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货2990（华东），基差-123，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨，上周104.16万吨，环比减少3.66%，去年同期147.01万 吨，同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is oscillating upward, with short - term weather uncertainties and technical consolidation. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is also in an upward oscillation, supported by good demand expectations and technical factors. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside. It may enter a moderately bullish oscillation pattern in the short term. The domestic soybean market is in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend and technical factors. The high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price. It is currently under the interactive influence of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - growing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward after being affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China remains high in August, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, soybean meal is in a short - term moderately bullish oscillation. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Considering the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to an oscillation pattern within a range. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory; uncertainties in US soybean - growing area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans arriving in July; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 165, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 256, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From August 7th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2999 to 3086, and the trading volume ranged from 0.15 to 33.1 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2640 to 2660, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 8th to 18th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 (2511), soybean No. 2 (2511), soybean meal near - month (2509), and soybean meal main - contract (2601) all showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices of soybean No. 1 (in Jiamusi), soybean No. 2 (duty - paid price), and soybean meal (in Jiangsu) also changed to some extent [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse - receipt Data**: From August 6th to 18th, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 13621 to 12632, the soybean No. 2 warehouse receipts remained at 2900 for most of the time, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were mainly 10925 or 10950 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including data on planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. - **Other Market Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China is decreasing from its high in August but showing an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory in oil mills is slightly increasing, while the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have risen to a high and then declined, with an increase in short - term stocking demand. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is rising with the increase in US soybean prices, and the profit margin of imported soybeans in the futures market is deteriorating. The pig inventory is rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined after reaching a high, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China is increasing, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs is slightly rising. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently declined [42][44][45][47][51][53][55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, with short - term weather uncertainties and short - covering. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has risen and then fallen, affected by rapeseed meal and technical adjustments. In the short term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The soybean market in China is oscillating and falling, influenced by the decline of US soybeans and technical adjustments. It is affected by the high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [8][10]. - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term due to the high arrival of imported soybeans, the relatively high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is relatively high. Affected by the relatively positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 2980 (East China), with a basis of - 157, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 244, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求表现良好，豆粕偏强震荡 （豆粕周报8.4-8.8） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期整体良好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回落，中美关税 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， | 偏空 | 需求短期改善偏淡，油厂开 | | | 油厂压榨量维持高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2980 and 3040. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by import volume and inventory [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also expected to be range - bound, with the A2509 contract fluctuating between 4080 and 4180. It is affected by factors like South American soybean harvest, import volume, and domestic production expectations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the short - term US market has oscillated downward, expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The domestic import soybean arrival volume remained high in July, the oil mill soybean meal inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price expectation, and the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations has led the soybean meal market to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, so the soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain US soybean production area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high domestic import soybean arrival volume in July and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of South American soybean bumper harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of Brazilian soybean bumper harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 for the global market and from 2015 to 2024 for the domestic market [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the 2023/24 Argentina soybean planting and harvest progress, 2024 US soybean planting, growth, and harvest progress, 2024/25 Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting and harvest progress [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show data from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The peak of imported soybean arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, but it is still considered bullish [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out, also considered bullish [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅 震荡，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-130，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡 收跌，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差147，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存642.24万吨，上周657.49万吨，环比增减少2.32%，去年同期611.2万 吨，同比增5.08%。偏空 4.盘面： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US trade tariffs, and South American soybean harvests. The soybean market may experience range - bound oscillations. Specifically, the M2509 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of the soybean market is influenced by multiple factors. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff negotiations are the main focuses of the market [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240. The analysis of soybean meal and soybeans includes aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and expected trends [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have increased since May. The short - term trend of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The profit of pig farming in China has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May, but the supply shortage supports the post - festival price of soybean meal. The short - term trend of soybean meal is oscillating weakly [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the short - term oscillation of soybean meal [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the transaction average price, trading volume, and price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 14 to July 23, as well as the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal during the same period [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: It records the changes in the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal from July 11 to July 23 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the supply - demand balance data of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the data of harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop soybean exports, crushing volume, and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: It shows the monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025, indicating that the arrival volume reached a high in June [44]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal have decreased, and the funds have flowed in. The main short positions of soybeans have increased, and the funds have flowed out [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and South American soybean harvest. Both soybeans and soybean meal are expected to remain range - bound in the short term [10][11]. - The price of US soybeans is affected by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather in the soybean - growing areas. The overall good weather in the US soybean - growing areas suppresses the upward movement of the price, while the uncertainty of the weather and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war determine the short - and medium - term trends of the market [33]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by factors like the arrival of imported soybeans, oil mill operations, and downstream demand. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement of prices [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July. The soybean inventory in domestic oil mills has continued to rise since May Day, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has continued to rise in July. The soybean market has returned to a fluctuating pattern due to the decline in US soybean prices [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly fluctuating pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - growing areas is still variable in the short term, which is bullish, but it is expected to be normal in the short term, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Import Cost**: US soybeans have bottomed out and rebounded. The Sino - US tariff negotiation and the weather in the US soybean - growing areas are still uncertain, which is bullish. The import cost is expected to fluctuate, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, but the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, which is bearish. The demand is expected to be weak in the short term, and the oil mill's operation is expected to decline from a high level, being bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has weakened, which is bearish. The market transaction is expected to remain at a low level, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills remains at a low level in the same period of history, which is bullish. With the increase in upstream operation, the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to rise, being bearish [9]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4000 - 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: Wait and see [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is oscillating upwards, supported by uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market and technical buying. However, high imports of soybeans in July and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract expected to fluctuate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is rising, supported by the rebound of the oil and fat market and technical buying. The domestic soybean market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market. But the increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with the M2509 contract expected to range between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is influenced by various factors, with the A2509 contract expected to range between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is relatively strong in the short - term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, and soybean meal inventories in oil mills also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean market has oscillated downward recently due to the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will remain oscillating in the short - term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 176, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 88.62 tons, a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 111, indicating a premium to the futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 657.49 tons, a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From July 9th to 18th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From July 10th to 18th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward - trending oscillation [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From July 8th to 18th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the data of the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, inventory, and exports [41]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection Data**: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories increased slightly, soybean meal inventories continued to rise, unexecuted contracts decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [45][47][49]. - **Pig - Related Data**: The inventories of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices rebounded recently, while piglet prices remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. Domestic pig - farming profits rebounded from a low level [53][55][59].